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Florida's 26th Congressional District election, 2018

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2020
2016
Florida's 26th Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 4, 2018
Primary: August 28, 2018
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent:
Carlos Curbelo (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
Voting in Florida
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): D+6
Cook Political Report: Toss-up
Inside Elections: Toss-up
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Florida's 26th Congressional District
U.S. Senate1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th9th10th11th12th13th14th15th16th17th18th19th20th21st22nd23rd24th25th26th27th
Florida elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018


Nonprofit director Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) defeated incumbent U.S. Rep. Carlos Curbelo (R) in the general election for Florida's 26th Congressional District on November 6, 2018.

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.

Although Curbelo won re-election in 2016 by 12 points, the district had gone blue in previous presidential elections, backing Barack Obama (D) in 2012 by a margin of 8 points and Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016 by 16 points.[3]

Politico listed the 26th Congressional District election as one of the top 10 House races to watch in 2018.[4] Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee included the district in their lists of targets for 2018.[5][6]

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Florida District 26

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell defeated incumbent Carlos Curbelo in the general election for U.S. House Florida District 26 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/DMP_RESIZE.jpg
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) Candidate Connection
 
50.9
 
119,797
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/CarlosCurbelo.jpg
Carlos Curbelo (R)
 
49.1
 
115,678

Total votes: 235,475
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 26

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell defeated Demetries Grimes in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Florida District 26 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/DMP_RESIZE.jpg
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell Candidate Connection
 
63.5
 
21,002
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Demetries_Grimes_2023.jpeg
Demetries Grimes
 
36.5
 
12,098

Total votes: 33,100
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 26

Incumbent Carlos Curbelo defeated Souraya Faas in the Republican primary for U.S. House Florida District 26 on August 28, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/CarlosCurbelo.jpg
Carlos Curbelo
 
84.0
 
29,508
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Souraya_Faas.JPG
Souraya Faas
 
16.0
 
5,629

Total votes: 35,137
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Candidate profiles

See also: Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages


Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, nonprofit director
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: No

Political office: None

Biography: Mucarsel-Powell received her bachelor's degree from Pitzer College and master's degree in international political economy from Claremont University. She worked for several nonprofit organizations, including Hope Center, Zoo Miami Foundation, and the Coral Restoration Foundation. Mucarsel-Powell also worked as the director of development for Florida International University.[7][8]

Key messages
  • Mucarsel-Powell shared her story as a first-generation American from Ecuador. She said she was committed to immigration legislation that protects immigrants.[9]
  • Mucarsel-Powell emphasized her focus on affordable healthcare, Medicare, and opposition to the repeal of the Affordable Care Act.[10]
  • She pointed to her time at the Florida International University College of Medicine, where she said she helped to build public-private partnerships to provide healthcare access to underserved communities, as evidence of her life's work to improve healthcare.[10]



Carlos Curbelo, U.S. representative
Carlos Curbelo USHR.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Republican

Incumbent: Yes

Political office: U.S. House of Representatives (assumed office: 2015); Miami Dade County School Board (2010-2015)

Biography: Curbelo earned his bachelor's degree and MPA from the University of Miami. After founding and operating a public and media relations company for 12 years, Curbelo co-founded the basketball nonprofit Centre Court Charities. He became state director for U.S. Sen. George LeMieux (R-Fla.) in 2009 and was elected to the Miami-Dade County School Board in 2010. In 2014, he was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives.[11]

Key messages
  • Curbelo said he was in Washington, D.C., to represent his constituents rather than his party. He highlighted a Miami Herald article calling him one of the most bipartisan members of Congress.[12]
  • Curbelo said he had a lifelong commitment to South Florida, pointing to his service on the Miami-Dade Metropolitan Planning Organization and the County School Board.[13]
  • Curbelo, who founded the bipartisan Climate Solutions Caucus, said he was committed to combating climate change. He said Mucarsel-Powell had no specific environmental positions.[14]


Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Florida's 26th Congressional District, Curbelo vs. Mucarsel-Powell
Poll Poll sponsor Republican Party Curbelo Democratic Party Mucarsel-PowellUndecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
New York Times/Siena College
October 19-24, 2018
N/A 44%45%11%+/-4.9499
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy
October 3-9, 2018
N/A 46%45%9%+/-4.0625
GBA Strategies
September 27-October 1, 2018
N/A 50%48%2%+/-4.4500
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research
September 23-27, 2018
Mucarsel-Powell 48%49%3%+/-4.9511
Public Policy Polling
September 17-19, 2018
Protect Our Care 44%45%11%+/-4.3511
Siena College/New York Times
September 13-16, 2018
N/A 47%45%8%+/-5.0385
GBA Strategies
July 16-22, 2018
Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee 41%48%11%+/-4.4500
AVERAGES 45.71% 46.43% 7.86% +/-4.56 504.43
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.


Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Carlos Curbelo Republican Party $5,178,885 $5,132,356 $89,898 As of December 31, 2018
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell Democratic Party $4,655,422 $4,615,605 $39,817 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[15][16][17]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[21]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[22][23][24]

Race ratings: Florida's 26th Congressional District election, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportToss-upToss-upToss-upToss-up
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesToss-upTilt RepublicanTilt RepublicanTilt Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean RepublicanLean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+6, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 6 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Florida's 26th Congressional District the 165th most Democratic nationally.[25]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 1.20. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 1.20 points toward that party.[26]

Noteworthy endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.


Noteworthy general election endorsements
Endorsement Democratic Party Shalala Republican Party Salazar
Elected officials
Former Vice President Joe Biden (D)
Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fla.)

Campaign advertisements

Democratic Party Debbie Mucarsel-Powell

Support

"Photo" - Mucarsel-Powell campaign ad, released October 18, 2018
"We Deserve Clean Water" - Mucarsel-Powell campaign ad, released October 4, 2018
"Affordable Health Care" - Mucarsel-Powell campaign ad, released September 26, 2018
"We Are One South Florida" - Mucarsel-Powell campaign ad, released August 7, 2018

Oppose

"Out of Touch" - Congressional Leadership Fund ad, released October 17, 2018
"Connection" - NRCC ad, released September 12, 2018

Republican Party Carlos Curbelo

Support

"Washington's Top Target" - Curbelo campaign ad, released October 24, 2018
"She Inspired the World" - Curbelo campaign ad, released October 1, 2018
"Carlos Curbelo Stands with Dreamers" - U.S. Chamber of Commerce campaign ad, released July 25, 2018


Oppose

"Carta Abierta" - DCCC ad, released October 22, 2018
"Open Letter" - DCCC ad, released October 22, 2018
"Says" - House Majority PAC ad, released October 9, 2018
"Why is Carlos Curbelo Backing Trump?" - Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee campaign ad, released June 22, 2018

Campaign themes

These were the policy positions listed on the top candidates' websites, if available.

Democratic Party Debbie Mucarsel-Powell

Healthcare

Debbie has spent her career working to expand access to health care for families across South Florida. She believes all Americans, regardless of income or zip code, deserve quality care that can never be taken away – and will make improving health care her top priority in Congress. She has pledged to work with her colleagues to improve the Affordable Care Act and to protect Medicare from Republican efforts to raid it. Debbie has a record of working to improve health care access in her community. While at Florida International University College of Medicine, she helped to build public-private partnerships to establish and grow the NeighborhoodHELP program, which provided health care access to underserved communities in South Florida. Her life’s work has been about improving our health care system so no family needs to choose between putting food on the table and getting the care they need. She will bring that same passion and dedication with her to Washington.

Economy

Debbie’s mother and three sisters immigrated to the United States in search of opportunities to better their lives – and through hard work and the opportunities this country provided, they were able to achieve their American Dream. The opportunities that helped Debbie and her family get ahead are disappearing for too many families across the country. Debbie believes we need to boost the economy by bringing good-paying jobs to South Florida and making sure that Floridians can get the skills they need through job training programs. By investing in our workforce, our nation will be more prepared to compete in a global 21st century economy.

Education

As a first-generation American, Debbie was able to achieve the American Dream through education, and believes every child should have the same opportunity to reach their highest potential. Debbie believes in fully funding our public education system, ensuring every child has access to a quality K-12 education regardless of their zip code and access to early childhood education. Debbie knows we must make college more affordable by expanding financial aid programs, lowering interest rates for all federal student loans while working on a plan to provide free community college for families.

Immigration

As a Hispanic immigrant and first-generation American, Debbie knows firsthand the challenges immigrants face in this country. Just like millions of other families, Debbie’s family came to this country seeking opportunities to better their lives. It is with this compassion that Debbie believes we need to fix our broken immigration system, replacing it with an accountable system that includes an expedited path to citizenship for DREAMers and their families. Bringing eleven million hard-working immigrants out of the shadows and into our system will only strengthen our great nation.

Environment

South Florida is ground zero for climate change, and we must lead the way in combating it. We are already seeing its effect in stronger storms and increased flooding, and we cannot afford to wait for action. Through her work at the Coral Restoration Foundation, Debbie has worked to slow the impacts of climate change on our marine life, and knows there is no time to wait when it comes to our environment. Debbie believes we must move quickly to a low fossil fuel economy, invest in clean energy, minimize greenhouse gas emissions, and invest in innovative infrastructure to protect our communities from sea-level rise. Florida, the Sunshine State, should be leading the way in solar energy production and reducing our reliance on oil and gas.

Gun Safety

Debbie lost her father at the age of 24 to gun violence and understands firsthand the devastating impact gun violence has on our families and communities. Debbie will fight every day to prevent another mother or father, sister or brother, daughter or son from ever receiving the devastating news that a loved one has been taken too soon by gun violence. Gun violence is an epidemic in the United States, which is why Debbie will fight for common-sense gun safety legislation. We must close the gun show loophole by requiring universal background checks, prevent those with a history of domestic violence or terrorism from purchasing a gun, and prevent firearms from falling in the hands of the mentally ill.

Women

As a mother, sister, and aunt it is Debbie’s priority to ensure women are paid the same as men for the same work; and especially women of color who particularly get the short end of the stick when it comes to equal pay. Debbie is committed to ensuring real on-the-ground equality for all women. Debbie will fight to end gender discrimination in the areas of education, employment, health care, and all other spheres. She will work to achieve equal pay for women, ensure paid maternity leave, pass child care legislation, and protect reproductive freedom. She will also pledge to always stand with Planned Parenthood.

Tax Reform

Debbie believes we need real tax reform—but not at the expense of hard-working families. The Republican tax plan raises taxes on millions of middle-class families and eliminates critical deductions we depend on in order to give big corporations a handout. As Debbie talks with families in FL-26, she hears over and over again that the opportunities to achieve the American Dream are disappearing for too many. That should be our focus, not new tax breaks for millionaires or for companies that ship jobs overseas. Debbie knows we must make it easier for people to make ends meet, not harder.[27]

—Mucarsel-Powell for Congress[28]

Republican Party Carlos Curbelo

Military

A strong military that can protect the interests of our nation at home and abroad relies heavily on our unparalleled strength and innovation. The United States military has always been and should remain a force of good in an increasingly dangerous world. Our men and women in uniform must continue to have the best tools at their disposal as they fight and train to defend our freedoms. In Congress, I’ve worked to raise troop pay and streamline our military programs and equipment, while also ensuring veterans have access to quality healthcare and services after they’ve returned from the battlefield.

In addition, I have made it a priority to advocate on behalf of undocumented individuals who want to serve our country in the military. If an individual possess critical language, medical, or technical skills needed by our military to accomplish their mission, they should not be disqualified from serving. We should honor ALL who are willing to risk their lives to defend our safety and freedoms. I am proud to report I was successful in leading the charge in defeating an amendment that would have eliminated these opportunities for young men and women in the DACA program.

Agriculture

Florida farmers and ranchers put food on our tables, feed our families, and grow our local and national economies. The role farmers play in our community and daily lives is invaluable, and I have made the priorities of the South Dade agriculture community a major focus of my work in Congress.

In the House, I have led the charge in working towards relief for local farmers aggrieved by the Oriental Fruit Fly quarantine and heavy rains of 2015. As Chairman of the Small Business Subcommittee on Agriculture, Energy, and Trade, I have focused my efforts on holding hearings on issues of importance to South Florida farmers, such as the classification of farm sizes as small businesses to make them eligible for additional loans.

If reelected, I will continue working towards reforming our inadequate H2A temporary guest work visa program. It is imperative that both farm owners and agriculture workers have a reliable, safe, and transparent visa program to ensure our crops can be planted and harvested in accordance with reasonable laws.

Small Business

American small businesses are at the heart of the American economy and free-market system. With their dedication to innovation and success, small business owners have led to the development of emergent technologies, sparked competition, and provided livelihoods for millions of Americans. They also employ low and middle income Americans trying to het ahead.

As a former small business owner, I know what bureaucratic red tape can do to a small business, its owners, and its employees. That’s why I’ve fought unnecessary regulations in Congress and proposed bipartisan solutions to help small business owners and those they employ. I’ve led efforts to raise the Obamacare workweek requirement to allow 40 hours of work a week instead of 30, and I fought for our local farmers to be recognized as the small businesses they are and be eligible for support from the Small Business Administration.

As Chairman of the Small Business Subcommittee on Agriculture, Energy, and Trade, I’ve brought issues of importance in South Florida to Congress. The Small Business Committee has held hearings on Citrus greening, the devastating disease hurting orange growers and others in Florida, and on what restricted access to Biscayne National Park means for fishermen and small businesses. I have also had a bill that supports small business contractors signed into law as part of the 2016 National Defense Authorization Act.

I will never stop fighting for the small businesses in our community because when small business succeeds, American families benefit.

Transportation

South Florida’s Highway Transportation Priorities

Traffic and congestion has plagued South Florida for years, but as the cost of housing continues to rise, workers and families often have to move to more affordable areas even further from their jobs and schools. This has resulted in dauntingly long commutes due to overcrowded roadways and an underutilized public transportation system. It is the responsibility of elected officials at all levels of government to address the needs of transportation projects, and by working together, I believe we can accomplish the goal of making our roadways safer and reducing traffic and congestion.

In Congress, I have been committed to providing local officials with the flexibility and funding they need to address the long-term transportation projects of our community. I was a firm supporter of the surface transportation bill signed into law last year that provides states and localities with the funds they need to advance projects that will most benefit them. The law includes several South Florida priorities, such as funding for water infrastructure projects, advancing creative bridge solutions at Florida International University, and larger sidewalks to protect pedestrians.

It is imperative the federal government work with state and local municipalities in areas like South Florida to promote economically efficient public transportation options that save citizens time and make their commutes easier and less reliant on their own cars. This will not only reduce congestion, but also benefit the environment.

Marine Transportation and our Nation

An efficient marine transportation system is crucial to both our local and national economies. Without properly dredged channels and harbors and the funding necessary for further expansion of our port facilities for handling imports and U.S. goods exported to foreign markets, the U.S. and South Florida will be left behind. Our inland tug and barge operation transportation systems, as well as our cruise line operations, must have the resources available to maintain global competitiveness. This will result in the higher effectiveness in moving goods and passengers on open waterways and allowing cruise lines and deep draft vessels to enter and depart U.S. port facilities. South Florida and our nation must remain competitive globally, and advocating for our marine industries is one of my top priorities.

Environment

South Florida is home to some of the most beautiful natural treasures in America. From the Everglades all the way to Key West, enjoying nature and the outdoors is at the center of our way of life.

Protecting these natural habitats is critical, and the promotion of sensible environmental protections has been at the forefront of my work in Congress. I have been a steadfast leader in the discussion of viable solutions that mitigate the effects of climate change without threatening economic productivity and growth. For the first time in Congressional history, I formed a bipartisan caucus to address the issues of rising sea levels, clean air, and alternative forms of energy with thought leaders from conservation groups and businesses.

We must remain committed to finding common sense solutions to protect beautiful parks, like the Everglades and reduce our carbon footprint. Water quality is also critical to South Florida and specifically, to the Florida Keys. I have worked to ensure the federal government’s support for efforts to update sewer and water treatment systems in Monroe County and to increase fresh water flows into Florida Bay. I am dedicated to being a positive voice on the issues of climate change and new energy solutions in Congress, even when I have to break from my party to do so. Our environment is too important to ignore and we must leave future generations with clean air and water.

Veterans

The men and women who bravely protected our nation from threats both at home and abroad deserve our utmost respect. When members of our armed forces retire, they should do so knowing they will be afforded everything the Department of Veterans Affairs and a grateful nation has promised them.

Unfortunately, we hear too many heartbreaking stories of veterans who have unjustly been ignored and neglected. The bureaucracy at Veterans Affairs hospitals across the country has resulted in delayed care for our service men and women, sometimes resulting in premature and avoidable deaths. The current Administration has shown a culture of disrespect and disregard for America’s heroes, and Congress must step in to rectify this inexcusable behavior.

I have been and will remain a steadfast supporter in cutting the red tape and allowing our veterans better access to the healthcare and other services they need. In Congress, I have led efforts to ensure veterans have proper identification cards and to make it easier to fire VA employees who are not doing their jobs. We have a responsibility to protect those who protected us, and I never stop making veterans’ issues a major priority.

Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid

We must keep the promise of Social Security to current beneficiaries and those nearing retirement while reforming the program, so it can effectively serve younger generations of Americans. Beginning in 2021, program costs are projected to exceed income, shrinking the trust fund, and threatening the future of Social Security and quality of life for future retirees.

As more Baby Boomers enroll in Medicare, it too is facing serious challenges. The program’s hospital insurance trust fund will be insolvent in 2026 — ten years from now — leaving younger Americans uncertain about their future.

These programs require bold decisions and innovative reforms that will guarantee their existence for rising generations of Americans.

Education

Ensuring every student has access to a high quality education is one of my top priorities and passions. I believe it is a civil rights issue, and that every child in America, regardless of their background or zip code, deserves access to a quality school that provides proper attention and resources to all its students. That is why I support an accountability system that sheds light on student learning, while treating them and their teachers fairly.

I believe the federal government has an important role to play by:

  • Encouraging and supporting low-income families enrolling children in early childhood education programs,
  • Working with educators and employers to ensure our schools are providing young people clear and direct paths to quality jobs,
  • Supporting programs like Head Start
  • Working to strengthen Career and Technical Education programs, and
  • Ensuring a quality, personalized education to students suffering from disabilities.

Education will never again be one-size fits all. There is more than one path to a successful and rewarding career, and every young person should be encouraged to pursue their passions and goals without being stigmatized for their choices in education. I want to preserve access to a traditional university or college education, while also urging students to choose what is right for them by reducing the barriers many students face as a result of current policies that protect institutions instead of empowering students.

Immigration

Our nation, like any other, has the right and responsibility to secure its borders. We must be able to know who is coming in and out of our country, and we must insist all border traffic be legal.

To do this effectively, our immigration system must be modernized. We need the capability to track visa holders who overstay, making-up nearly half of the undocumented population in America. Our nation is in need of an expanded guest worker program that will help fill the jobs Americans are not seeking, especially in agriculture. And while we must demand accountability from those who enter our country illegally, we should establish an earned path to legalization for those who have abided by our laws and contributed to our economy, especially those who were brought to the country as minors by their parents. These young people have gown up in this, the country they love, and should be granted an opportunity to become Americans.

Foreign Policy and National Security

Every day the world becomes more and more unstable. The Middle East is in chaos with Iran using billions in sanctions relief and direct transfer payments from the Obama Administration to threaten Israel and other American allies. ISIS continues wreaking havoc in Iraq and Syria while the Assad regime presses forward with chemical attacks against civilians (including children) more than three years after President Obama drew a red line. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin seems intent on rebuilding the Soviet Empire and challenging American power in the Middle East and Eastern Europe. Closer to home, the Cuban regime recently hosted the Iranian foreign minister and continues actively opposing American interests despite the Obama Administration’s long list of unilateral concessions.. In Venezuela Nicolas Maduro, with the support of the Castro government, is viciously repressing dissent as he desperately attempts to maintain power in an all but failed state.

When the United States shows weakness, bad actors become emboldened and make the world a more dangerous place. While we cannot afford to serve as the world’s police, America must lead with a clear voice, support our allies, and oppose our enemies. The Obama Administration has failed in this regard, and the President, more focused on legacy than policy, appears uninterested and disengaged. We need Members of Congress who will embrace the concept of smart power, and who understand that peace is only achieved through strength.

Taxes We must reform our tax system. We need fewer and lower marginal tax rates for all Americans that will lead to more job creation and a stronger economic recovery. We should close all special interest loopholes, increase the child tax credit for working families raising dependent children, and expand the successful earned income tax credit for those earning low wages.

We also need to reduce the corporate tax rate so we can remain the greatest country in the world to do business. In recent years we have seen an increased number of American companies attempting to “invert,” which means they leave the U.S. to incorporate in a foreign country with a more favorable tax code. This concerning trend can be attributed to the fact that our country has one of the highest corporate tax rates in the developed world, and it is costing our nation tax revenue, jobs, and potential economic growth. Congress must address tax reform to make our code more competitive. This will not only entice American companies to maintain their domestic headquarters, but it will also attract new businesses from overseas and encourage foreign companies to incorporate in the United States.

Healthcare

Like my neighbors in District 26, I want a quality healthcare system at an affordable cost. Unfortunately, the President’s Affordable Care Act, better known as Obamacare, hasn’t fulfilled its promise to be that. Instead, it has increased the cost of healthcare for millions of Americans and is threatening our economic recovery. A law that gives the IRS an outsized role in our healthcare system, considers 30 hours a full workweek, and cuts funding for Medicare is, at best, deeply flawed.

After being sworn in to the 114th Congress, I voted to change the 30-hour workweek under Obamacare to a 40-hour workweek, so workers in need of more hours to support their families would not be limited. Unfortunately, Democrats in the Senate refuse to work in a bipartisan manner to pass this legislation so it could reach the President’s desk and become law.

Our community and our country deserve a world-class, consumer-driven healthcare system. By empowering patients to make rational choices in their health care, we will reduce the cost of care for all Americans and preserve the best healthcare system in the world. A new healthcare law should include reforms that are centered around consumers, demand more transparency in the healthcare market, facilitate high risk pools for those with pre-existing conditions, treat women fairly, and keep the promise of Medicare for our seniors.

Economy

We live in a new, fast-paced economy that is leaving too many people behind: young people cannot find work after college, millions of Americans are employed part-time despite needing full-time work to sustain their families, and wages are stagnant across the board. Unfortunately, our economy is the victim of self-inflicted wounds, like the 30-hour workweek under Obamacare, increased regulation, and an unsustainable fiscal policy that relies on deficit spending to fund the government.

Every day it seems like there is less incentive for people to get ahead or grow their business. This must change. If we want to get America growing again we must:

  • Simplify our tax system, reduce taxes on working families, and reward hard work;
  • End the chronic budget deficits that threaten our economy and our national security;
  • Reform higher education, so our colleges and universities better prepare our young men and women for the jobs and opportunities of this century; and
  • Modernize our anti-poverty programs, so that rather than helping people just deal with poverty they actually empower people to emerge from poverty.[27]
—Curbelo for Congress[29]


Social media

Twitter accounts

Facebook accounts

Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.

Democratic Party Debbie Mucarsel-Powell Facebook

Republican Party Carlos Curbelo Facebook

Timeline

  • October 24, 2018: Mucarsel-Powell led Curbelo by one percentage point, 45 percent to 44 percent, in a New York Times/Siena College poll of 499 likely voters. The margin of error was 4.9 percentage points.
  • October 16, 2018: Curbelo led Mucarsel-Powell by one percentage point, 46 percent to 45 percent, in a Mason-Dixon poll of 425 likely voters. The margin of error was 4 percentage points.
  • October 9, 2018: Everytown for Gun Safety endorsed Carlos Curbelo.[30]
  • October 5, 2018: GBA Strategies released a poll of 500 likely voters finding Mucarsel-Powell leading Curbelo by 2 percentage points, 50 percent to 48 percent. The margin of error was 4.4 percent.
  • September 21, 2018: Public Policy Polling released a poll of 511 voters commissioned by Protect Our Care finding Mucarsel-Powell leading Curbelo by one point, 45 percent to 44 percent. The margin of error was 4.3 percent.[31]
  • September 13, 2018: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spent $405,000 on an ad campaign.[18]
  • September 12, 2018:

Republican district won by Hillary Clinton

See also: U.S. House districts represented by a Republican and won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Split-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections

This district was one of 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won in the 2016 presidential election.[32] Nearly all were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2018.

Click on the table below to see the full list of districts.


2018 election results in Republican-held U.S. House districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016
District Incumbent 2018 winner 2018 margin 2016 presidential margin 2012 presidential margin
Arizona's 2nd Republican Party Martha McSally Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick D+9.5 Clinton+4.9 Romney+1.5
California's 10th Republican Party Jeff Denham Democratic Party Josh Harder D+2.6 Clinton+3.0 Obama+3.6
California's 21st Republican Party David Valadao Democratic Party TJ Cox D+0.8 Clinton+15.5 Obama+11.1
California's 25th Republican Party Steve Knight Democratic Party Katie Hill D+6.4 Clinton+6.7 Romney+1.9
California's 39th Republican Party Ed Royce Democratic Party Gil Cisneros D+1.4 Clinton+8.6 Romney+3.7
California's 45th Republican Party Mimi Walters Democratic Party Katie Porter D+1.6 Clinton+5.4 Romney+11.8
California's 48th Republican Party Dana Rohrabacher Democratic Party Harley Rouda D+5.8 Clinton+1.7 Romney+11.7
California's 49th Republican Party Darrell Issa Democratic Party Mike Levin D+7.4 Clinton+7.5 Romney+6.7
Colorado's 6th Republican Party Mike Coffman Democratic Party Jason Crow D+11.2 Clinton+8.9 Obama+5.1
Florida's 26th Republican Party Carlos Curbelo Democratic Party Debbie Mucarsel-Powell D+1.8 Clinton+16.1 Obama+11.5
Florida's 27th Republican Party Ileana Ros-Lehtinen Democratic Party Donna Shalala D+6.0 Clinton+19.7 Obama+6.7
Illinois' 6th Republican Party Peter Roskam Democratic Party Sean Casten D+5.6 Clinton+7.0 Romney+8.2
Kansas' 3rd Republican Party Kevin Yoder Democratic Party Sharice Davids D+9.1 Clinton+1.2 Romney+9.5
Minnesota's 3rd Republican Party Erik Paulsen Democratic Party Dean Phillips D+11.4 Clinton+9.4 Obama+0.8
New Jersey's 7th Republican Party Leonard Lance Democratic Party Tom Malinowski D+4.7 Clinton+1.1 Romney+6.2
New York's 24th Republican Party John Katko Republican Party John Katko R+6.3 Clinton+3.6 Obama+15.9
Pennsylvania's 1st Republican Party Brian Fitzpatrick[33] Republican Party Brian Fitzpatrick R+2.6 Clinton+2.0 Obama+2.6
Pennsylvania's 5th Republican Party Pat Meehan[34] Democratic Party Mary Gay Scanlon D+30.2 Clinton+28.2 Obama+27.7
Pennsylvania's 6th Republican Party Ryan Costello[35] Democratic Party Chrissy Houlahan D+17.6 Clinton+9.3 Obama+3.2
Pennsylvania's 7th Republican Party Charlie Dent[36] Democratic Party Susan Wild D+11.3 Clinton+1.1 Obama+7.0
Texas' 7th Republican Party John Culberson Democratic Party Lizzie Pannill Fletcher D+5.0 Clinton+1.4 Romney+21.3
Texas' 23rd Republican Party Will Hurd Republican Party Will Hurd R+0.5 Clinton+3.4 Romney+2.6
Texas' 32nd Republican Party Pete Sessions Democratic Party Colin Allred D+6.3 Clinton+1.9 Romney+15.5
Virginia's 10th Republican Party Barbara Comstock Democratic Party Jennifer Wexton D+12.4 Clinton+10.0 Romney+1.6
Washington's 8th Republican Party David Reichert Democratic Party Kim Schrier D+6.2 Clinton+3.0 Obama+1.6


Click here to see the 13 Democratic-held U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won.

Click here to see an overview of all split-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections..

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Four of 67 Florida counties—6 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Jefferson County, Florida 5.06% 1.75% 3.66%
Monroe County, Florida 6.82% 0.44% 4.90%
Pinellas County, Florida 1.11% 5.65% 8.25%
St. Lucie County, Florida 2.40% 7.86% 12.12%

In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump (R) won Florida with 49 percent of the vote. Hillary Clinton (D) received 47.8 percent. Florida was considered a key battleground state in the 2016 general election. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Florida voted Democratic 56.67 percent of the time and Republican 43.33 percent of the time. Florida went to the Republicans in 2000, 2004, and 2016, and it went to the Democrats in 2008 and 2012.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Florida. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[37][38]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 55 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 29.1 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 54 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. Clinton won 14 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 65 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 17.7 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 66 out of 120 state House districts in Florida with an average margin of victory of 21.1 points. Trump won two districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


District history

2016

See also: Florida's 26th Congressional District election, 2016

Florida's 26th Congressional District was a battleground district in 2016. Incumbent Carlos Curbelo (R) won re-election to his second term in 2016. He defeated Joe Garcia (D) and Jose Peixoto (I) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Garcia defeated Annette Taddeo to win the Democratic primary on August 30, 2016.[39][40][41]

U.S. House, Florida District 26 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngCarlos Curbelo Incumbent 53% 148,547
     Democratic Joe Garcia 41.2% 115,493
     Independent Jose Peixoto 5.9% 16,502
Total Votes 280,542
Source: Florida Division of Elections


U.S. House, Florida District 26 Democratic Primary, 2016
Candidate Vote % Votes
Green check mark transparent.pngJoe Garcia 51.3% 14,834
Annette Taddeo 48.7% 14,108
Total Votes 28,942
Source: Florida Division of Elections

2014

See also: Florida's 26th Congressional District elections, 2014

Florida's 26th Congressional District was a battleground district in 2014. Incumbent Joe Garcia faced no challenger in the Democratic primary. In the Republican primary, Carlos Curbelo defeated Ed MacDougall, Joe Martinez, Lorenzo Palomares Starbuck and former U.S. Rep. David Rivera. Curbelo then beat incumbent Garcia in the general election on November 4, 2014.[42][43]

U.S. House, Florida District 26 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngCarlos Curbelo 51.5% 83,031
     Democratic Joe Garcia Incumbent 48.5% 78,306
Total Votes 161,337
Source: Florida Division of Elections

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Florida heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

Trifecta status

2018 elections

See also: Florida elections, 2018

Florida held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Florida
 FloridaU.S.
Total population:20,244,914316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):53,6253,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:76%73.6%
Black/African American:16.1%12.6%
Asian:2.6%5.1%
Native American:0.3%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0.1%0.2%
Two or more:2.4%3%
Hispanic/Latino:23.7%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:86.9%86.7%
College graduation rate:27.3%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$47,507$53,889
Persons below poverty level:19.8%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Florida.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2017, Florida's three largest cities were Jacksonville (pop. est. 860,000), Miami (pop. est. 430,000), and Tampa (pop. est. 360,000).[44][45]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Florida from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Florida Department of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Florida every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Donald Trump 49.0% Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 47.8% 1.2%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 50.0% Republican Party Mitt Romney 49.1% 0.9%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 51.0% Republican Party John McCain 48.2% 2.8%
2004 Republican Party George W. Bush 52.10% Democratic Party John Kerry 47.09% 5.01%
2000 Republican Party George W. Bush 48.847% Democratic Party Al Gore 48.838% 0.009%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Florida from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Republican Party Marco Rubio 52.0% Democratic Party Patrick Murphy 44.3% 7.7%
2012 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 55.2% Republican Party Connie Mack 42.2% 13.0%
2010 Republican Party Marco Rubio 48.9% Independent Charlie Crist 29.7% 19.2%
2006 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 60.3% Republican Party Katherine Harris 38.1% 22.2%
2004 Republican Party Mel Martinez 49.4% Democratic Party Betty Castor 48.3% 1.1%
2000 Democratic Party Bill Nelson 51.0% Republican Party Bill McCollum 46.2% 4.8%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Florida.

Election results (Governor/Lt. Governor), Florida 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Republican Party Rick Scott/Carlos Lopez-Cantera 48.1% Democratic Party Charlie Crist/Annette Taddeo-Goldstein 47.1% 1%
2010 Republican Party Rick Scott/Jennifer Carroll 48.9% Democratic Party Alex Sink/Rod Smith 47.7% 1.2%
2006 Republican Party Charlie Crist/Jeff Kottkamp 52.2% Democratic Party Jim Davis/Daryl Jones 45.1% 7.1%
2002 Republican Party Jeb Bush/Frank Brogan 56.0% Democratic Party Bill McBride/Tom Rossin 43.2% 12.8%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Florida in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Florida 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2014 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2012 Republican Party 17 62.9% Democratic Party 10 37.0% R+7
2010 Republican Party 19 76.0% Democratic Party 6 24.0% R+13
2008 Republican Party 15 60.0% Democratic Party 10 40.0% R+5
2006 Republican Party 16 64.0% Democratic Party 9 36.0% R+7
2004 Republican Party 18 66.7% Democratic Party 7 33.3% R+11
2002 Republican Party 17 66.7% Democratic Party 8 33.3% R+9
2000 Republican Party 15 57.9% Democratic Party 8 42.1% R+7

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Florida Party Control: 1992-2024
One year of a Democratic trifecta  •  Twenty-five years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R I R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
Senate D S S R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R
House D D D D D R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R


See also

Footnotes

  1. Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
  2. Counties could add additional early voting days from October 22 through October 26 and/or November 4.
  3. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed November 10, 2017
  4. Politico, "The Top 10 House Races to Watch in 2018," December 25, 2017
  5. DCCC, "House Democrats Playing Offense," January 30, 2017
  6. Elect GOP Patriots, "Home," accessed October 5, 2018
  7. Mucarsel-Powell for Congress, "Meet Debbie," accessed September 17, 2018
  8. GKollaborative, "Debbie Murcarsel-Powell," accessed September 17, 2018
  9. YouTube, "Debbie Mucarsel-Powell – Immigration Reform," June 15, 2018
  10. 10.0 10.1 Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, "Issues," accessed September 17, 2018
  11. Curbelo for Congress, "About Carlos," accessed September 17, 2018
  12. YouTube, "Carlos Curbelo – Refereeing Washington," August 18, 2018
  13. Carlos Curbelo, "Home," accessed September 17, 2018
  14. Washington Examiner, "Carlos Curbelo, the Republican who's all in on climate change," September 18, 2018
  15. OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
  16. OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
  17. National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
  18. 18.0 18.1 Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 9/13," September 13, 2018
  19. 19.0 19.1 YouTube, "Connection," September 12, 2018
  20. 20.0 20.1 Twitter, "David Wright," September 12, 2018
  21. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  22. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  23. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  24. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  25. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  26. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  27. 27.0 27.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  28. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, "Priorities," accessed September 17, 2018
  29. Curbelo for Congress, "Issues," accessed September 17, 2018
  30. New York Times, "In a Crucial Pennsylvania District, Gun Policy Reigns Supreme," October 10, 2018
  31. Protect Our Care, "Republicans in Trouble on ACA, Pre-Existing Conditions; Florida Voters, Say They’re Less Likely to Support them Due to Health Care Stance," September 21, 2018
  32. This figure includes Pennsylvania districts that were redrawn by the state Supreme Court in early 2018 and districts that flipped in special elections.
  33. The new 1st district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 8th District held by Fitzpatrick. Click here to read more.
  34. The new 5th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 7th District held by Meehan. Click here to read more.
  35. The new 6th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 6th District held by Costello. Click here to read more.
  36. The new 7th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 15th District held by Dent. Click here to read more.
  37. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  38. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  39. Daily KOS, "Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest: National Democrats look to retake Florida swing seat," January 15, 2015
  40. Florida Department of State, "Candidate Listing for 2016 General Election," accessed June 25, 2016
  41. Politico, " Florida House Races Results," August 30, 2016
  42. Associated Press, "Primary Results 2014," accessed August 26, 2014
  43. The Huffington Post, "Election 2014," November 4, 2014
  44. United States Census Bureau, "QuickFacts - Florida," accessed May 9, 2018
  45. Florida Demographics, "Florida Cities by Population," accessed May 9, 2018



Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
Neal Dunn (R)
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
District 7
District 8
District 9
District 10
District 11
District 12
District 13
Anna Luna (R)
District 14
District 15
District 16
District 17
District 18
District 19
District 20
District 21
District 22
District 23
District 24
District 25
District 26
District 27
District 28
Republican Party (22)
Democratic Party (8)