Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018

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Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District
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Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 5, 2018
Primary: August 14, 2018
General: November 6, 2018

Pre-election incumbent:
Erik Paulsen (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Minnesota
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): D+1
Cook Political Report: Lean Democratic
Inside Elections: Tilt Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District
U.S. Senate (regular)U.S. Senate (special)1st2nd3rd4th5th6th7th8th
Minnesota elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

Businessman Dean Phillips (D) defeated incumbent Rep. Erik Paulsen (R) in the general election for Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District on November 6, 2018.

All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were up for election in 2018. The Democratic Party gained a net total of 40 seats, winning control of the chamber. This race was identified as a 2018 battleground that might have affected partisan control of the U.S. House in the 116th Congress. Heading into the election, the Republican Party was in the majority holding 235 seats to Democrats' 193 seats, with seven vacant seats. Democrats needed to win 23 GOP-held seats in 2018 to win control of the House. From 1918 to 2016, the president’s party lost an average of 29 seats in midterm elections.

This district was one of 25 Republican-held districts that supported Hillary Clinton (D) in the 2016 presidential election. Clinton won by a margin of 10 points, while Paulsen was re-elected by 14 points.[1]

Both the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the National Republican Congressional Committee included the district in its list of targets for 2018.[2][3]

Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District encompasses portions of Anoka, Hennepin, and Carver counties.[4]

Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Minnesota District 3

Dean Phillips defeated incumbent Erik Paulsen in the general election for U.S. House Minnesota District 3 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/DEAN_PHILLIPS_RESIZE.jpg
Dean Phillips (D)
 
55.6
 
202,404
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Erik_Paulsen.jpg
Erik Paulsen (R)
 
44.2
 
160,839
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.2
 
706

Total votes: 363,949
(100.00% precincts reporting)
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 3

Dean Phillips defeated Cole Young in the Democratic primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 3 on August 14, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/DEAN_PHILLIPS_RESIZE.jpg
Dean Phillips
 
81.6
 
56,677
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Cole_Young.jpg
Cole Young
 
18.4
 
12,784

Total votes: 69,461
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 3

Incumbent Erik Paulsen advanced from the Republican primary for U.S. House Minnesota District 3 on August 14, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Erik_Paulsen.jpg
Erik Paulsen
 
100.0
 
39,077

Total votes: 39,077
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Candidate profiles

See also: Editorial approach to writing about key campaign messages


Dean Phillips, entrepreneur
Dean Phillips.png

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Democratic

Incumbent: No

Political office: None

Biography: Phillips graduated from Brown University and University of Minnesota’s Carlson School of Management. He worked for a cycling apparel start-up before joining the family business, Phillips Distilling Company. He became CEO in 2000. In 2011, Phillips left to develop the gelato company Talenti. He also founded Penny's Coffee in 2015.[5]

Key messages
  • Phillips highlighted his entrepreneurial efforts, including opening a coffee shop where part-time employees were paid a $15 per hour minimum wage.[5][6]
  • Phillips said that he did not to accept money from federal lobbyists or PACs. He said that Paulsen was ranked 6 out of 435 U.S. representatives for taking the most money from PACs, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.[8][9]



Erik Paulsen, U.S. representative
Erik Paulsen.jpg

Campaign website Facebook Twitter

Party: Republican

Incumbent: Yes

Political office: U.S. House, Minnesota's 3rd (assumed office: 2009); Minnesota House of Representatives (1995-2009)

Biography: Paulsen graduated with a degree in mathematics from St. Olaf College. He worked in business for over 16 years, including as a business analyst at Target Corporation. During his tenure in the Minnesota House of Representatives, he served as House majority leader for two terms.[10]

Key messages
  • Paulsen described himself as "a leading voice for accountability, transparency and fiscal discipline in the federal government." He served on the House Committee on Ways and Means.[11]
  • Paulsen pointed to his opposition to removing environmental protections for the Boundary Waters to show his ability to dissent from Trump and the Republican Party and stand up for Minnesota.[12]
  • Paulsen said Phillips was dishonest for calling healthcare a moral right but not providing healthcare for part-time employees at his company.[13]



Polls

See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District election, General election
Poll Poll sponsor Democratic Party Phillips Republican Party PaulsenUndecided/OtherMargin of errorSample size
KSTP/SurveyUSA
September 24-29, 2018
N/A 49%44%8%+/-4.3607
Public Policy Polling
September 17-18, 2018
Protect Our Care 52%39%9%+/-4.2538
New York Times/Siena
September 7-9, 2018
N/A 51%42%7%+/-4.6500
Public Policy Polling
November 9-10, 2017
N/A 46%42%12%+/-4.2542
AVERAGES 49.5% 41.75% 9% +/-4.33 546.75
Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.



Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
Erik Paulsen Republican Party $5,825,348 $5,908,717 $283,601 As of December 31, 2018
Dean Phillips Democratic Party $6,307,591 $6,266,109 $41,482 As of December 31, 2018

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.


Satellite spending

Satellite spending, commonly referred to as outside spending, describes political spending not controlled by candidates or their campaigns; that is, any political expenditures made by groups or individuals that are not directly affiliated with a candidate. This includes spending by political party committees, super PACs, trade associations, and 501(c)(4) nonprofit groups.[14][15][16]

This section lists satellite spending in this race reported by news outlets in alphabetical order. If you are aware of spending that should be included, please email us.

  • The Congressional Leadership Fund spent $431,000 on ads in September 2018 to oppose Phillips and support Paulsen.[17]
  • End Citizens United spent more than $740,000 on ads in September 2018 to oppose Paulsen and support Phillips.[18]
  • Independence USA spent $365,000 on a negative television ad campaign against Paulsen in October 2018.[19]

Race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from three outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

  • Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
  • Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
  • Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.[20]
  • Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.[21][22][23]

Race ratings: Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District election, 2018
Race trackerRace ratings
October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018October 9, 2018
The Cook Political ReportLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesTilt DemocraticTilt DemocraticTilt DemocraticTilt Democratic
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean DemocraticLean Democratic
Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+1, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 1 percentage point more Democratic than the national average. This made Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District the 189th most Democratic nationally.[24]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.98. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.98 points toward that party.[25]

Noteworthy endorsements

See also: Ballotpedia: Our approach to covering endorsements

This section lists noteworthy endorsements issued in this election, including those made by high-profile individuals and organizations, cross-party endorsements, and endorsements made by newspaper editorial boards. It also includes a bulleted list of links to official lists of endorsements for any candidates who published that information on their campaign websites. Please note that this list is not exhaustive. If you are aware of endorsements that should be included, please click here.


Campaign advertisements

Democratic Party Dean Phillips

Support

"Together" - Phillips campaign ad, released October 25, 2018
"New Way" - Phillips campaign ad, released October 15, 2018
"The Truth" - Phillips campaign ad, released September 10, 2018
"Coffee and Conversation" - Phillips campaign ad, released August 22, 2018


Oppose

"All True" - NRCC opposition ad, released October 9, 2018
"Laid Off" - Congressional Leadership Fund opposition ad, released October 2, 2018
"Profit" - NRCC opposition ad, released September 25, 2018
"Too Bad" - NRCC opposition ad, released September 19, 2018
"Dishonest Dean" - Congressional Leadership Fund opposition ad, released September 18, 2018
"Latte" - NRCC opposition ad, released September 15, 2018
"Moral Right" - Paulsen opposition ad, released September 5, 2018
"Coffee" - Congressional Leadership Fund opposition ad, released September 5, 2018

Republican Party Erik Paulsen

Support

"Threatened" - Paulsen campaign ad, released July 11, 2018

Oppose

"Money Talks" - End Citizens United ad, released October 23, 2018
"FALSE" - Phillips campaign ad, released October 23, 2018
"The Paulsen Way" - DCCC ad, released October 22, 2018
"Wall" - Phillips campaign ad, released October 9, 2018
"Paddling" - League of Conservation Voters ad, released October 1, 2018
"Phone Booth" - Phillips opposition ad, released September 24, 2018
"Care About" - House Majority PAC opposition ad, released September 21, 2018
"We Found Bigfoot" - Phillips opposition ad, released September 18, 2018

Campaign themes

These were the policy positions listed on the candidates' websites.

Democratic Party Dean Phillips

Campaign Finance Reform

“No matter your number one issue, I ask that you make campaign finance reform your number two. The corrupting influence of special interest money in politics, and the time spent in its pursuit, are at the heart of the dysfunction in Washington, DC. Let’s begin to repair our government together.”

– Dean Phillips

Dean’s Plan

Dean is one of only seven known candidates in the country who refuses to accept money from PACs, special interest groups, federal lobbyists or members of Congress. While he ultimately supports overturning the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision, Dean believes these are the steps we can we can take in the meantime that would make a meaningful difference:

Increase transparency in political spending

Dean believes we must shine a bright light on the massive amount of so-called “dark money” being poured into our elections. That starts with passing the DISCLOSE Act, which would require public disclosure of all spending in elections. Dean also supports the Honest Ads Act, which would apply the same disclosure standards to online ads that are applied to all other political ads and would help curb foreign influence in online political advertising.

Lower contribution and expenditure limits

Dean supports lowering contribution and spending limits, and he wants to enhance efforts to encourage greater participation from Americans contributing at lower dollar amounts. That way, candidates would have the ability to raise the resources they need from a broader base of people, rather than relying on a small number of wealthy donors.

Reduce the influence of outside spending

Dean supports the Get Foreign Money Out of Elections Act, which would close a campaign finance loophole that allows American-registered but foreign-owned and controlled corporations to funnel unlimited amounts of money into U.S. elections. And Dean signed the People’s Pledge to discourage spending by outside special interest groups.

Close the revolving door of money and influence

Dean will work to close the so-called “revolving door” that exists between members of Congress and individuals working in federal government who then cash in on their connections and influence by taking lucrative lobbying jobs. He also supports barring political appointees from lobbying for five years after serving in the Executive Branch.

Restore faith in our democracy and increase participation

Dean believes Election Day should be a national holiday to afford more Americans the opportunity to exercise their right and responsibility to vote. He also supports electoral reforms —  including requiring states to establish independent, multi-party citizen redistricting commissions, and expanding same-day voter registration nationwide.

Healthcare for All Americans

“I believe it’s time we make the moral decision to ensure every American has affordable, high-quality healthcare – no matter their age, geography or condition. I will support immediate action that gets us closer to that goal – and I will not rest until it’s achieved.”

– Dean Phillips

Dean’s Plan

Twenty-eight million Americans lack health insurance, and as many as 30,000 people die every year as a result. Millions more cannot afford the insurance they have and are one health crisis away from bankruptcy. The Affordable Care Act (ACA) was an important step forward in providing critical protections for patients, but more needs to be done to bring down the cost of care. Here’s what Dean would do:

Fix and improve the Affordable Care Act

Dean supports bipartisan proposals to stabilize insurance markets established by the ACA and bring more competition to areas lacking insurance options. Andy Slavitt and former Senator Bill Frist, among others, have laid out a number of commonsense ideas for how to achieve this. Dean believes these proposals should be debated openly and brought to votes.

Expand Medicare as an option for all Americans

Dean supports the expansion of Medicare as a public option for all Americans — while preserving the protections established under the ACA. This way, more would benefit from the lower cost, higher quality care provided by Medicare — and those Americans with employer-provided care that works for them would maintain the freedom to keep it.

Reduce the cost of prescription drugs

Americans subsidize the entire world’s prescription drug prices, and Dean believes it’s time to require Medicare to negotiate on behalf of all Americans to achieve significantly lower costs. And he will crack down on drug companies that engage in predatory pricing schemes.

Reform the care delivery model

While the ACA represented an historic expansion of healthcare coverage, it didn’t do enough to reform the system and the cost-drivers that lead to higher healthcare costs for all Americans. Dean says often that we have a sick-care system, not a healthcare system, and we need to change the incentive structure to reward prevention over procedures. That’s why Dean will not support any plan that fails to include significant reforms that lower costs.

Fiscal Responsibility

“As a father and business owner who recognizes the threat our exploding national debt poses to future generations, I know we must manage our fiscal house more thoughtfully and fairly. I believe in efficient government and fiscally responsible tax policy that stimulates demand by accruing more resources to middle-income American families.”

– Dean Phillips

Dean’s Plan

Having built and managed both large and small businesses, Dean understands firsthand the challenge of balancing the books and the danger of spending more than you generate. Living off the national credit card and asking future generations to foot the bill is neither sound nor ethical policy, especially during periods of economic growth. Dean will advocate for common-sense approaches to strengthen our nation’s fiscal house, including making government more efficient, generating more value from our tax dollars, creating a more fair tax system and prioritizing spending based on return on investment. Here’s his plan:

Make government more efficient and reduce our national debt

The recently passed tax law burdens future generations with an additional $1.9 trillion of debt. If elected, Dean will advocate for reducing our deficit and debt by utilizing tax dollars more efficiently and generating more value from each dollar invested. Dean supports an orderly military withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan ($440 billion in savings over 10 years), negotiating prescription drug prices through Medicaid ($230 billion in savings over 10 years), objecting to Trump’s ineffective and unnecessary border wall (over $100 billion in savings over 10 years), and passing comprehensive immigration reform ($170 billion in savings over 10 years).

Ensure tax policy accrues more resources to middle-income Americans

Elements of the recently passed tax bill were positive, including the reduction in the corporate tax rate to make U.S. businesses more competitive and to repatriate overseas profits back to the U.S. While Dean does not support full repeal of the bill, he believes it’s bad policy when approximately 83% of the benefits flow to the top 1% of earners. And while cuts for those at the top are permanent, the cuts for the middle class expire. That’s why Dean supports making those tax cuts permanent and ending the special giveaways and sweetheart deals for wealthy special interests in the bill — and in the tax code.

Reconvene a National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility

While President Obama made an effort to restore fiscal responsibility through the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, the report produced by the Commission did not reach the required threshold to be sent to Congress, and most of its ideas fell by the wayside. Eight years later, and with the country deeper in debt, Dean supports reconvening a commission to explore opportunities for bipartisan reforms to reduce spending and use tax dollars more efficiently without harming working people or senior citizens.

Retirement Security

“Social Security is the most successful anti-poverty program in our nation’s history. Those in or near retirement have worked hard and paid into the system all their lives, and we must honor that promise by working in a bipartisan fashion to ensure the elements of a secure retirement are protected — including Medicare, Medicaid and support for caregivers.”

– Dean Phillips

Dean’s Plan

Millions of retirees count on Social Security and Medicare, and a majority of those who need nursing home care depend on Medicaid. Dean believes in protecting such earned benefits — not cutting or privatizing them. That’s why he will seek to strengthen these programs and ensure their solvency into the future. Here are his priorities:

Protect Social Security benefits

Retirees and those near retirement age have paid into the system and made plans based on a promised level of benefits. However, without any change in policy, Social Security will only be able to pay about 77% of its promised benefits by the year 2034. Dean will explore all fiscally responsible and fair proposals to preserve benefits for as many as possible, and advocate for a mechanism by which wealthier retirees may voluntarily redirect their benefits to lower-income retirees.

Strengthen Medicare by controlling rising healthcare costs

Medicare is a foundational source of healthcare for retirees, but ballooning costs are undermining many people’s ability to afford care. Cutting benefits is not the answer; working to control and reduce healthcare costs is the only way forward. That’s why Dean supports redesigning the care delivery model by rewarding prevention and health rather than procedures and hospitalizations. And Dean will fight hard to ensure that Medicare can negotiate prescription drug prices with pharmaceutical companies, which would save American taxpayers approximately $240 billion over 10 years.

Protect access to nursing home care through Medicaid

One of three people turning 65 will need nursing home care at some point in their lives. At an average annual cost of $82,000 for such care, 6 of 10 Americans in nursing homes depend on Medicaid to afford it. Proposals to block-grant federal Medicaid funding would limit the ability of states, including Minnesota, to provide for nursing home care. Medicaid is also the largest provider of mental health and opioid addiction care — another reason we must protect the program on which so many families and communities depend.

Support caregivers and expand options for seniors to live independently

Personal care attendants often earn low wages despite providing necessary care for many elderly and disabled Americans. And with tens of millions of Boomers in or nearing retirement, the need for quality, dependable caregivers will only increase. Dean supports ensuring caregivers are properly trained and compensated, and will support policies that provide options for seniors to live independently at home for as long as possible.

Gun-Violence Prevention

“Thoughts and tweets don’t save lives — courage and action save lives. And since Congress has refused to effect change to improve safety, I will do everything in my power to support students mobilizing to change Congress.”

– Dean Phillips

Dean’s Plan

We average nearly one mass shooting every single day in this country. In the face of 200 school shootings since Sandy Hook, Congress has done nothing to investigate why these incidents are happening, let alone anything meaningful to address them. Dean’s plan calls for doing both:

Pass universal background checks

Over 77% of Republicans and 90% of Democrats agree on the need to close the gun-show loophole and require background checks on all firearm purchases. Congress has done nothing to confront this issue out of fear of angering the gun lobby. Dean is not beholden to the gun lobby or any other special interests, and he will be a vocal advocate for such commonsense, bipartisan policy.

Reinstate the Assault Weapons Ban

In the 10-year period during which the Assault Weapons Ban was in place, gun massacres decreased dramatically — ​but​ they’ve increased dramatically ever since. Dean believes it’s time to reinstate this commonsense policy. Given that we don’t allow hand grenades, bazookas or machine guns on our streets, there is precedent for the same sort of reasonable approach to assault weapons that will save lives.

Fund CDC research into gun violence

Dean believes we must declare gun violence a national health and public safety crisis. He will work to provide the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with the funding necessary to thoroughly investigate the causes of gun violence ​and offer potential solutions.

Support mental health and anti-bullying programs

Dean understands that our public schools lack the resources necessary to provide adequate numbers of mental health professionals and counselors who can help identify and treat children suffering from mental illness, and he will work to fix that. He also believes we need stronger anti-bullying measures — like Minnesota’s Safe and Supportive Schools Act — in all public schools.

Keep guns away from dangerous people

Finally, Dean supports commonsense measures to keep guns away from domestic abusers, violent criminals and suspected terrorists, including so-called ‘no fly no buy’ proposals.

Jobs and the Economy

“I’ve helped build and manage both small and large businesses in Minnesota, and I know that smart public policy is pro-business and pro-worker. That’s why I’m an advocate for policies that grow the economy by reducing red tape, investing in people and rewarding innovation.”

– Dean Phillips

Dean’s Plan

Dean is an entrepreneur and job-creator who understands the realities of running a business and making a payroll. From bussing tables and starting his own small business as a teenager to leading some of Minnesota’s most well-known companies, Dean’s family taught him the value of hard work and that success is to be measured not by how much one collects, rather by how much is shared with the people and communities that make that success possible. Those lessons and his real-world business experience shape Dean’s views on public policy. Here’s Dean’s Plan:

Make healthcare more affordable and accessible

The rising cost of healthcare and health insurance is the top challenge facing people and employers of all sizes, but particularly small businesses. Dean is committed to making healthcare affordable and accessible to all Americans by redesigning the healthcare-delivery model and increasing coverage options for businesses and their employees. Read more here.

Solidify Minnesota as an innovation hub

Minnesota is a leader in cutting-edge technological innovations in clean energy, healthcare, agriculture, and IT. Dean will build on that long history as an innovation hub by advocating for federal investment in Minnesota, expanding access to start-up capital, creating targeted tax incentives for innovation, and investing in programs like the Small Business Innovation Research and Small Business Technology Transfer and in research, such as through the National Institutes of Health.

Incentivize employee ownership of more businesses

In the 1940’s, Dean’s great-grandfather instituted one of the country’s first documented employee profit-sharing plans, and many Minnesota businesses followed suit. Dean knows that when employees share in ownership — and success — it’s good for everyone. That’s why he will promote incentives to expand employee profit-sharing plans and employee stock-ownership plans (ESOPs) to more American businesses.

Educate Minnesotans for the jobs of today…and tomorrow

Over two-thirds of 21st-century jobs will require education beyond high school, but not every student needs a four-year degree to earn a good living. That’s why Dean will work to ensure that all types of education and training after high school — including college, apprenticeships and work-based learning — are affordable and accessible to Minnesotans of all ages. Read more here.

Promote a comprehensive approach to economic security

No one who works hard for a living should live in poverty in our country. Wages are an important part of that equation, but affordable healthcare, child and family care, affordable housing, transportation and a secure retirement are key components of economic security. As a pragmatic problem-solver, Dean will advocate for common sense policies in all those areas, so that businesses can afford to pay livable wages and workers can adequately provide for themselves and their families.

Expand markets for businesses through fair trade agreements

As someone who’s done business all over the world, Dean knows how important well-negotiated trade deals are for American businesses. Businesses and economies expand when middle-income families have more money to spend, and when American products and services can access overseas markets. While Dean supports renegotiating sections of existing trade deals to make them more fair to American businesses, Dean opposes the current Administration’s dangerous and arbitrary tariffs and escalating trade war, and he will ensure that Congress plays its constitutional role as a check on the Executive Branch.

Immigration Reform

“My family came to this country for the same reasons as many others: for opportunity and a place of refuge from persecution. That’s the America that I know and love: a compassionate America that values and welcomes hard-working people who come here with big dreams and a simple wish for safety and opportunity. This is not a Republican or a Democratic issue. It is a human issue — and an economic issue — and we must do better.”

– Dean Phillips

Dean’s Plan

Both parties have failed to solve glaring problems with our immigration system, and too many politicians are using the issue to divide — rather than unite. Dean believes we need bipartisan, comprehensive and fair reforms to address our immigration challenges, which will help reduce the deficit and support businesses. In the near term, Dean supports extending DACA protections and passing the DREAM Act, without strings attached, to protect young people who were brought here as children. Here’s what he will work to do:

Secure our borders with effective approaches

We need to stop criminals, gangs and terrorists from crossing our borders, but 21st-century threats require 21st-century technology — not an ineffective border wall that will add over $100 billion to our deficit by 2028. Dean supports giving law enforcement the technologies, tools and resources they need to combat illegal border crossings, such as surveillance cameras, drones and underground sensors, so we can prevent anyone who poses a threat to our country from crossing at all.

Create fair pathways to earned, legal citizenship

Unlike politicians who use immigration to scare, divide and score political points, Dean will advocate for bipartisan immigration reform that secures our borders and provides an earned pathway to citizenship for otherwise law-abiding, undocumented immigrants who work hard and pay taxes. Comprehensive reform should include streamlining the naturalization system so those who work to enter the U.S. legally don’t have to wait decades for citizenship.

Ensure businesses have access to skilled workers when there’s a shortage

People come from all over the world for education and training at American universities. Upon graduation, many then return to their home countries only to compete against American business and economic interests. As a part of comprehensive immigration reform, Dean supports making it easier to keep highly skilled people in the U.S. so that businesses have access to specialized workers, particularly for jobs for which there aren’t enough Americans with the needed skills to fill open positions.

Prosecute and deport violent criminals

Dean believes that anyone who commits a serious or violent crime should be arrested and prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law, without exception, and undocumented immigrants should be deported after serving their time. Local law enforcement should be focused on stopping the real threats to public safety — violent crime, gangs and terrorists — rather than enforcing federal immigration law.

Combating Climate Change

“We didn’t leave the Stone Age because we ran out of rocks; rather, we developed better ways of doing things. In the 21st century, it’s time to accelerate our transition to a clean-energy economy, reduce our carbon footprint, and preserve our planet for future generations.”

– Dean Phillips

Dean’s Plan

As someone who drives an electric car and uses a geothermal system to heat and cool his home, Dean walks the talk. His plan creates incentives for more individuals and more businesses to do the same, and to reduce our reliance on fossil fuels:

Market-based solutions to reduce carbon emissions

While many U.S. states, multinational corporations, and other countries have already put a price on carbon emissions and set reduction goals, our federal government has yet to act. Monetizing greenhouse gas emissions allows the free market to figure out the best solutions to addressing the threat posed by global climate change. Dean supports an approach like the Carbon Fee and Dividend Plan advocated by the Climate Leadership Council, which is revenue-neutral and will benefit every American.

Incentives to expand clean energy production

Dean will work to promote renewable energy from wind, solar and infrastructure investments to develop a clean and reliable electrical grid. He also supports extending the 30% federal tax credit for solar and other renewable energy, which would otherwise decrease after 2019 and disappear altogether after 2021 — building on Minnesota’s nation-leading work.

A renewed focus on energy efficiency

Dean knows we need to put more serious efforts behind energy efficiency, which is the most cost-effective and affordable way to reduce fossil-fuel consumption. Coupled with the extension of expired federal tax credits for energy efficiency upgrades, Dean supports adopting recommendations by the American Council for an Energy Efficiency Economy that will save Americans billions of dollars in lower energy bills, create domestic jobs, improve health by reducing pollution, and make homes and businesses more livable.

Increased investments in resiliency

Recognizing that the consequences of climate change are already upon us, Dean knows we also need to build resiliency into our infrastructure. In particular, he believes buildings should be designed to integrate energy storage and achieve “passive survivability” — to maintain habitable conditions if power is lost for an extended period of time. This is a life-safety issue, and passive survivability should be written into building codes.

Supporting Our Veterans

“As a Gold Star Son, I know all too well the sacrifices made by our veterans and their families. I’m on a mission to ensure we take care of those who risk their lives in service to our country – and that we don’t forget about the families they leave behind.”

– Dean Phillips

Dean’s Plan

Americans strongly believe we must support those who have served our nation and defended our liberty. Veterans and their families must be a priority when they’re sent into harm’s way; and they must remain a priority when they come home. Here’s what Dean would focus on:

Health Care

The VA must have the resources necessary to meet the increasing needs of veterans and enable it to serve effectively as the medical home of every veteran in its care. Community care and related private sector programs must supplement and coordinate with VA services, not replace them. Private sector services must not result in gaps, delays, or defunding of essential VA care.

Mental Health, TBI and PTSD

A significant percentage of veterans, especially those who served in Iraq and Afghanistan, suffer from major depression, PTSD, or TBI. The VA must have sufficient resources for veteran outreach to identify those who need help and to perform the essential research that enables prompt diagnosis and appropriate treatment. VA resources should be coordinated with innovative private sector services (e.g., telehealth) when appropriate.

Homelessness

The VA estimates that 40,000 veterans were homeless in 2016. No veteran should be without a place to call home. The VA should fully fund existing homelessness programs and expand coordinated efforts in local communities to identify veterans at risk and to help provide solutions to their housing challenges.

Administrative Simplicity

Many veterans struggle to understand and navigate the VA system to apply for and receive the benefits to which they are entitled. The VA should place a priority on simplifying and streamlining the eligibility, benefits, and related administrative processes.

Education Benefits

America built its middle class post-WWII in large part with a generous and effective GI Bill. Those education benefits have eroded in the ensuing years, presenting less opportunity to today’s veterans. America owes opportunity to those who have served honorably and must provide sufficient education benefits that enable our returning veterans to reintegrate into civilian life and continue to make contributions to American society.

Higher Education and Job Training

“Today more than ever, getting a good job depends on obtaining necessary skills and training after high school. Every Minnesotan should have the opportunity to earn an affordable college degree, apprenticeship, or job-training certificate that prepares them for jobs of the future. This isn’t just good for individuals, it’s good for businesses, it’s good for our communities — and it helps grow Minnesota’s economy.”

– Dean Phillips

Dean’s Plan

Minnesota’s renowned public education system and varied post-secondary options make our state an ideal place to earn a living, raise a family and start a business. It’s time we build on that legacy by enhancing our system of higher education and training for the jobs of the future. We need to educate and train more Minnesotans in the skills our businesses are demanding, and we need to make higher education more affordable and efficient. Here’s Dean’s plan:

Ensure a range of high-quality education options after high school

Almost two-thirds of new jobs will require some education and training after high school, but a traditional four-year college degree is not necessary for everyone. Many “new collar” jobs pay well and don’t require a BA, and increasingly, many Americans will require continuing education throughout their working lives. That’s why Dean supports federal pilot funding for innovative ideas like apprenticeships, three-year degrees that combine high school and college, competency-based education, and “last mile” training so that states and localities can explore options that are best for their communities.

Make college more affordable for more families

For those seeking four-year degrees, Dean supports expanding federal student aid (including student loans and Pell Grants, which have not kept up with inflation) and allowing refinancing of existing debt at lower interest rates. It’s unfair that college debt is generally subject to higher interest rates than automobile and other consumer loans. He is also an advocate for loan-forgiveness programs for those entering high-impact but low-paying fields.

Help students and families make informed choices

Our federal student-aid system is needlessly complex. Education and training after high school are one of the best investments an individual and family can make — if they choose the right course of study and program. Many 21st-century jobs did not exist a few years ago, and others — like manufacturing jobs — are radically different than in years past. Dean will work to make career and financial-aid counseling available to Minnesotans of all ages, starting in middle school, to help all of us find and pursue the best education and career path.

Ensure higher education teaches in-demand knowledge and skills

Obtaining higher education and training after high school is costly — in time and dollars. Dean will support policies that foster partnerships between higher-education institutions and employers to create smooth pathways to good first jobs in growing sectors of our economy. And he will explore the possibility of giving schools and other training providers more “skin in the game” by tying a portion of their federal funding to their students’ employment outcomes.

A World-Class Public Education

“We must ensure that every American child receives a world-class public education — no matter their zip code. I’ve spent the majority of my adult life working to create more opportunity for students, and I will make that a top priority as a member of Congress.”

– Dean Phillips

Dean’s Plan

Dean believes a world-class public education system is the foundation of the American promise. But with dramatic achievement gaps and declining resources, too many schools are struggling, too many teachers are overly burdened, and too many students are left behind. Here’s Dean’s plan:

Fully fund federal education mandates

Increasing funding for federal mandates will be among Dean’s top priorities when it comes to education. He supports the IDEA Full Funding Act, which would fully fund the federal government’s portion of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act over a 10-year period. This would ease the financial burden on school districts and help them hire teachers and support professionals, and equip them with the tools and training they need to succeed.

Support and encourage teachers

Dean supports teacher-preparation programs and other efforts to help recruit more candidates from under-represented communities into the profession. He also believes the federal government should support and build upon intensive mentoring programs during new teachers’ first years, which will help them succeed and keep more of them in the profession. Dean wishes to elevate the esteem and compensation for teachers — which he believes to be the most important and impactful profession in our society.

Expand early learning opportunities

Dean supports increased investments in early learning opportunities, as research shows that every dollar invested can yield a return of up to seven dollars — once that child has become an educated and productive member of society.

More counselors and mental health professionals

Dean supports the expansion of full-service community schools and investments to increase the number of mental health professionals and counselors. This will help relieve the burdens on teachers and provide critical support for kids, which will ultimately save money — and lives.

Establish a Retiree Education Corps

Dean is proposing a national Retiree Education Corps that would recruit, vet, and train retirees and senior citizens to bring their expertise and life experience to schools and classrooms to support teachers and help kids learn.

Women’s Health & Economic Security

“I remember my mother wearing a green ‘ERA Now’ pin almost 50 years ago. As a member of Congress, I will champion the ratification of the Equal Rights Amendment and the advancement of women’s health, economic security, and reproductive freedom.”

– Dean Phillips

Women still make $0.80 for every $1 a man makes, their healthcare is under attack, and the #MeToo movement has exposed the rampant sexism that still exists in our society. And while we cannot legislate decency, Dean’s plan will help level the playing field for women in the workplace and create equity in healthcare, wages and opportunity in these ways:

Equal pay for equal work

The Equal Pay Act was passed more than 50 years ago, and yet a substantial wage gap still exists between men and women — and particularly women of color. Dean will work to address this through increasing the minimum wage, making it easier for women to have families without jeopardizing their careers, and passing the Paycheck Fairness Act to combat wage discrimination.

Commonsense paid leave policies

Dean supports paid leave policies that would allow women — and men — to care for a newborn or aging family member without risk of losing their jobs or being demoted. Sensible leave policies are good for kids, parents and businesses, too.

Comprehensive health care coverage

Dean supports the protections provided in the Affordable Care Act that prevent women from being charged more than men, and he opposes efforts to repeal or undermine them. He is pro-choice and will work to ensure that women have access to comprehensive, high-quality and affordable care — including reproductive care — throughout their lives.

Eliminate harassment in the workplace

There is no place for harassment of any kind in the workplace. Sexual harassment, in particular, cannot be tolerated, and Dean supports efforts to educate workers and employers, hold violators accountable, and ensure safe and respectful workplaces for all people.[26]

—Phillips for Congress[27]


Republican Party Erik Paulsen

I‘m working hard on the issues most important to my constituents and believe in offering positive, principled, and results-oriented solutions to the many challenges we face. Washington has been on the wrong track for far too long, and it is critical that we enact real, meaningful reforms that will put people back to work, while finally putting our nation on track for a sustainable economic recovery so that we can provide a healthy fiscal future for our children and grandchildren.

Job Creation and Promoting Prosperity

America’s success has always been greatly tied to the strength of our economy. Unfortunately, we remain in the midst of an anemic economic recovery that follows a difficult recession that affected all Americans. It’s past time that Congress put partisan politics aside and enact real policies to get Americans back to work. An economic recovery without jobs is not a real recovery.

My business experience taught me the importance of sound economic policy. I support proven pro-growth economic policies, including:

  • A simple, fair and more competitive tax code that makes it easier for families and businesses to work, save, invest and innovate.
  • Cutting red tape for small businesses so they can hire new employees and re-invest in their business.
  • Moving forward on free trade agreements to open up new markets.
  • Stopping out-of-control spending and the skyrocketing debt.
  • Healthcare reforms that lower costs for everyone without breaking the bank.
  • A comprehensive approach to energy, including the expansion of nuclear and renewable energies. We need to build the Keystone Pipeline, which will create over 20,000 jobs and supply our country with more North American-made energy. Becoming less reliant on foreign sources of energy will make America safer and stronger economically.

Restoring Fiscal Discipline

Washington is spending and borrowing at alarming rates, and the result is record-high budget deficits and a national debt of $16 trillion. This burden equates to more than $50,000 for each and every Minnesotan. We now have a debt that is larger than our entire nation’s GDP. This debt is not only a burden placed on our children and grandchildren, but it also continues to dampen the prospects of the economic recovery we should have seen long ago. Minnesota families don’t have the option of simply spending more money than they have, and neither should the Federal Government. One of my top priorities in Congress is bringing fiscal sanity to Washington. My first vote in Congress was against the release of $350 billion in bailout spending, and I’ve since voted against trillions in wasteful Washington spending.

Reforming Health Care

There is no doubt that health care needs reform in the United States. However, raising taxes and taking away options in benefits is not the answer. We need to rein in skyrocketing costs, improve quality and expand access – without breaking the bank. I support bipartisan, common sense solutions to do exactly that, including:

  • Paying for quality, not quantity.
  • Focusing on prevention and wellness.
  • Fostering greater competition by allowing insurance to be purchased across states lines and allowing small businesses to pool together.
  • Making sure that people with pre-existing conditions are covered by insurance.
  • Providing transparency when it comes to health care costs.
  • Enacting real medical liability reform to end junk lawsuits.

We need to repeal the new $30 billion excise tax on medical devices that threatens thousands of high-paying Minnesota jobs. Many companies have already cut their workforce due to the looming tax. This is not the way to spur innovation and reform our health care system. I am the chief author of legislation to repeal this onerous tax so the United States can retain its position as a global leader and continue to innovate and grow jobs.

A Secure Nation and Supporting our Veterans

Ensuring the safety of all Americans is the most solemn duty of the federal government. Our nation’s commitment to our men and women in uniform, and their families, must never waver. Working on behalf of our veterans and service members is one of my top priorities. I also believe our military must have the best equipment and support possible — before, during and after their deployment.

I coauthored the Military Voting Protection Act to strengthen the voting rights of troops overseas, secured key funding for the Minnesota National Guard returning home, addressed payment inequities for our soldiers and their families, and continue to aid numerous veterans in getting the assistance they deserve.

Educating Tomorrow’s Leaders

Investing in new technology, and math and science education directly feeds into our nation’s ability to continue to lead the world in productivity and economic growth. America’s history is filled with stories of scientific discoveries and technological innovations that have improved the quality of life and economic prosperity of our nation, and the world. We must continue to ensure that the generation of tomorrow’s leaders will be able to compete with the best and brightest globally and lead our country in the 21st Century. Our children will no longer compete with children across the street, but with children across the globe. We need to ensure that our education system is accountable to students, parents, teachers, and the taxpayer. We must continue to push the envelope in science, technology, engineering and math to ensure that American continues to lead the world in technological innovation.[26]

—Paulsen for Congress[28]


Social media

Twitter accounts

Facebook accounts

Click the icons below to visit the candidates' Facebook pages.

Democratic Party Dean Phillips Facebook

Republican Party Erik Paulsen Facebook

Republican district won by Hillary Clinton

See also: U.S. House districts represented by a Republican and won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Split-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections

This district was one of 25 Republican-held U.S. House districts that Hillary Clinton (D) won in the 2016 presidential election.[29] Nearly all were expected to be among the House's most competitive elections in 2018.

Click on the table below to see the full list of districts.


2018 election results in Republican-held U.S. House districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016
District Incumbent 2018 winner 2018 margin 2016 presidential margin 2012 presidential margin
Arizona's 2nd Republican Party Martha McSally Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick D+9.5 Clinton+4.9 Romney+1.5
California's 10th Republican Party Jeff Denham Democratic Party Josh Harder D+2.6 Clinton+3.0 Obama+3.6
California's 21st Republican Party David Valadao Democratic Party TJ Cox D+0.8 Clinton+15.5 Obama+11.1
California's 25th Republican Party Steve Knight Democratic Party Katie Hill D+6.4 Clinton+6.7 Romney+1.9
California's 39th Republican Party Ed Royce Democratic Party Gil Cisneros D+1.4 Clinton+8.6 Romney+3.7
California's 45th Republican Party Mimi Walters Democratic Party Katie Porter D+1.6 Clinton+5.4 Romney+11.8
California's 48th Republican Party Dana Rohrabacher Democratic Party Harley Rouda D+5.8 Clinton+1.7 Romney+11.7
California's 49th Republican Party Darrell Issa Democratic Party Mike Levin D+7.4 Clinton+7.5 Romney+6.7
Colorado's 6th Republican Party Mike Coffman Democratic Party Jason Crow D+11.2 Clinton+8.9 Obama+5.1
Florida's 26th Republican Party Carlos Curbelo Democratic Party Debbie Mucarsel-Powell D+1.8 Clinton+16.1 Obama+11.5
Florida's 27th Republican Party Ileana Ros-Lehtinen Democratic Party Donna Shalala D+6.0 Clinton+19.7 Obama+6.7
Illinois' 6th Republican Party Peter Roskam Democratic Party Sean Casten D+5.6 Clinton+7.0 Romney+8.2
Kansas' 3rd Republican Party Kevin Yoder Democratic Party Sharice Davids D+9.1 Clinton+1.2 Romney+9.5
Minnesota's 3rd Republican Party Erik Paulsen Democratic Party Dean Phillips D+11.4 Clinton+9.4 Obama+0.8
New Jersey's 7th Republican Party Leonard Lance Democratic Party Tom Malinowski D+4.7 Clinton+1.1 Romney+6.2
New York's 24th Republican Party John Katko Republican Party John Katko R+6.3 Clinton+3.6 Obama+15.9
Pennsylvania's 1st Republican Party Brian Fitzpatrick[30] Republican Party Brian Fitzpatrick R+2.6 Clinton+2.0 Obama+2.6
Pennsylvania's 5th Republican Party Pat Meehan[31] Democratic Party Mary Gay Scanlon D+30.2 Clinton+28.2 Obama+27.7
Pennsylvania's 6th Republican Party Ryan Costello[32] Democratic Party Chrissy Houlahan D+17.6 Clinton+9.3 Obama+3.2
Pennsylvania's 7th Republican Party Charlie Dent[33] Democratic Party Susan Wild D+11.3 Clinton+1.1 Obama+7.0
Texas' 7th Republican Party John Culberson Democratic Party Lizzie Pannill Fletcher D+5.0 Clinton+1.4 Romney+21.3
Texas' 23rd Republican Party Will Hurd Republican Party Will Hurd R+0.5 Clinton+3.4 Romney+2.6
Texas' 32nd Republican Party Pete Sessions Democratic Party Colin Allred D+6.3 Clinton+1.9 Romney+15.5
Virginia's 10th Republican Party Barbara Comstock Democratic Party Jennifer Wexton D+12.4 Clinton+10.0 Romney+1.6
Washington's 8th Republican Party David Reichert Democratic Party Kim Schrier D+6.2 Clinton+3.0 Obama+1.6


Click here to see the 13 Democratic-held U.S. House districts that Donald Trump (R) won.

Click here to see an overview of all split-ticket districts in the 2016 presidential and U.S. House elections..

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

Nineteen of 87 Minnesota counties—21.8 percent—are Pivot Counties. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Beltrami County, Minnesota 9.72% 9.89% 10.15%
Blue Earth County, Minnesota 3.69% 9.48% 12.95%
Chippewa County, Minnesota 28.70% 1.87% 5.87%
Clay County, Minnesota 1.95% 7.92% 16.02%
Fillmore County, Minnesota 21.70% 7.34% 8.26%
Freeborn County, Minnesota 17.24% 14.11% 17.13%
Houston County, Minnesota 13.87% 3.16% 10.69%
Itasca County, Minnesota 16.35% 9.83% 12.92%
Kittson County, Minnesota 22.05% 6.03% 18.54%
Koochiching County, Minnesota 19.85% 9.45% 10.10%
Lac qui Parle County, Minnesota 25.60% 0.90% 5.92%
Mahnomen County, Minnesota 2.92% 18.56% 25.31%
Mower County, Minnesota 7.82% 22.61% 23.61%
Nicollet County, Minnesota 3.04% 7.83% 10.52%
Norman County, Minnesota 13.34% 10.79% 26.94%
Rice County, Minnesota 3.06% 8.27% 11.50%
Swift County, Minnesota 25.57% 9.83% 13.79%
Traverse County, Minnesota 23.30% 4.44% 5.41%
Winona County, Minnesota 2.90% 12.85% 19.09%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Minnesota with 46.4 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 44.9 percent. In presidential elections between 1860 and 2016, Minnesota voted Republican 50 percent of the time and Democratic 47.5 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Minnesota voted Democratic all five times.[34]

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Minnesota. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[35][36]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 68 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 27.6 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 62 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 30.4 points. Clinton won 12 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 66 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 12.3 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 72 out of 134 state House districts in Minnesota with an average margin of victory of 23.8 points. Trump won seven districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.


District history

2016

See also: Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as a race to watch. Incumbent Erik Paulsen (R) defeated Terri Bonoff (D) in the general election on November 8, 2016. Neither candidate faced a primary opponent in August.[37][38]

U.S. House, Minnesota District 3 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngErik Paulsen Incumbent 56.7% 223,077
     Democratic Terri Bonoff 43% 169,243
     N/A Write-in 0.3% 1,144
Total Votes 393,464
Source: Minnesota Secretary of State

2014

See also: Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District elections, 2014

The 3rd Congressional District of Minnesota held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Erik Paulsen (R) defeated Sharon Sund (D) in the general election.

U.S. House, Minnesota District 3 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Republican Green check mark transparent.pngErik Paulsen Incumbent 62.1% 167,515
     Democratic Sharon Sund 37.8% 101,846
     N/A Write-in 0.1% 224
Total Votes 269,585
Source: Minnesota Secretary of State

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Minnesota heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Republicans had a 77-56 majority in the state House. The state Senate was tied, with 33 Republicans and 33 Democrats.

Trifecta status

  • Minnesota was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Mark Dayton (D) served as governor, while Republicans controlled the state legislature.

2018 elections

See also: Minnesota elections, 2018

Minnesota held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Minnesota
 MinnesotaU.S.
Total population:5,482,435316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):79,6273,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:84.8%73.6%
Black/African American:5.5%12.6%
Asian:4.4%5.1%
Native American:1%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.7%3%
Hispanic/Latino:5%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:92.4%86.7%
College graduation rate:33.7%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$61,492$53,889
Persons below poverty level:12.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Minnesota.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Minnesota's three largest cities were Minneapolis (pop. est. 422,000), St. Paul (pop. est. 307,000), and Rochester (pop. est. 116,000).[39]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Minnesota from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Minnesota Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Minnesota every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Minnesota 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 46.4% Republican Party Donald Trump 44.9% 1.5%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 52.7% Republican Party Mitt Romney 45.0% 7.7%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 54.1% Republican Party John McCain 43.8% 10.3%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 51.1% Republican Party George W. Bush 47.6% 3.5%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 47.9% Republican Party George W. Bush 45.5% 2.4%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Minnesota from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Minnesota 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Al Franken 53.2% Republican Party Mike McFadden 42.9% 10.3%
2012 Democratic Party Amy Klobuchar 65.2% Republican Party Kurt Bills 30.5% 34.7%
2008 Democratic Party Al Franken 41.99% Republican Party Norm Coleman 41.98% 0.01%
2006 Democratic Party Amy Klobuchar 58.1% Republican Party Mark Kennedy 37.9% 20.2%
2002 Republican Party Norm Coleman 49.5% Democratic Party Walter Mondale 47.3% 2.2%
2000 Democratic Party Mark Dayton 48.8% Republican Party Rod Grams 43.3% 5.5%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Minnesota.

Election results (Governor), Minnesota 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Mark Dayton 50.1% Republican Party Jeff Johnson 44.5% 5.6%
2010 Democratic Party Mark Dayton 43.6% Republican Party Tom Emmer 43.2% 0.4%
2006 Republican Party Tim Pawlenty 46.7% Democratic Party Mike Hatch 45.7% 1.0%
2002 Republican Party Tim Pawlenty 44.4% Democratic Party Roger Moe 36.5% 7.9%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Minnesota in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Minnesota 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2014 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2012 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2010 Republican Party 4 50.0% Democratic Party 4 50.0% Even
2008 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2006 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2
2004 Republican Party 4 50.0% Democratic Party 4 50.0% Even
2002 Republican Party 4 50.0% Democratic Party 4 50.0% Even
2000 Republican Party 3 37.5% Democratic Party 5 62.5% D+2

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Minnesota Party Control: 1992-2024
Four years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor R R R R R R R I I I I R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Senate D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R D D D D R R R R R R D D
House D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D R R D D R R R R D D D D D D


See also

Footnotes

  1. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2016 and 2012 elections," accessed November 19, 2017
  2. DCCC, "House Democrats Playing Offense," January 30, 2017
  3. Elect GOP Patriots, "Home," accessed October 7, 2018
  4. United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  5. 5.0 5.1 Phillips for Congress, "Why," accessed September 21, 2018
  6. Phillips for Congress, "Release: Dean Phillips Is a Small-Business Owner Who Offers His Employees a Health Insurance Plan," September 5, 2018
  7. Phillips for Congress, "Healthcare for All," accessed September 21, 2018
  8. 8.0 8.1 Phillips for Congress, "Toolkit," accessed September 21, 2018
  9. The New York Times, "For Voters Sick of Money in Politics, a New Pitch: No PAC Money Accepted," August 12, 2018
  10. Paulsen, "Biography," accessed September 21, 2018
  11. Paulsen for Congress, "About," accessed September 21, 2018
  12. YouTube, "Threatened," July 11, 2018
  13. YouTube, "Moral Right," September 5, 2018
  14. OpenSecrets.org, "Outside Spending," accessed September 22, 2015
  15. OpenSecrets.org, "Total Outside Spending by Election Cycle, All Groups," accessed September 22, 2015
  16. National Review.com, "Why the Media Hate Super PACs," November 6, 2015
  17. FEC, "FILING FEC-1261124," accessed September 20, 2018
  18. FEC, "2018 House Independent Expenditure, State: Minnesota, District: 03," accessed September 21, 2018
  19. Daily Kos, "Morning Digest: Here's what happens when campaigns try to knock misleading third-party ads off of TV," October 16, 2018
  20. Inside Elections also uses Tilt ratings to indicate an even smaller advantage and greater competitiveness.
  21. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Nathan Gonzalez," April 19, 2018
  22. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Kyle Kondik," April 19, 2018
  23. Amee LaTour, "Email correspondence with Charlie Cook," April 22, 2018
  24. Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  25. FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  26. 26.0 26.1 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
  27. Phillips for Congress, "Priorities," accessed September 21, 2018
  28. Paulsen for Congress, "Issues," accessed September 21, 2018
  29. This figure includes Pennsylvania districts that were redrawn by the state Supreme Court in early 2018 and districts that flipped in special elections.
  30. The new 1st district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 8th District held by Fitzpatrick. Click here to read more.
  31. The new 5th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 7th District held by Meehan. Click here to read more.
  32. The new 6th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 6th District held by Costello. Click here to read more.
  33. The new 7th district was created in early 2018 due to court-ordered redistricting and most closely resembles the old 15th District held by Dent. Click here to read more.
  34. 270towin.com, "Minnesota," accessed June 29, 2017
  35. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  36. Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  37. Minnesota Secretary of State, "Candidate Filings," accessed June 1, 2016
  38. Politico, "Minnesota House Primaries Results," August 9, 2016
  39. Minnesota Demographics, "Minnesota Cities by Population," accessed September 4, 2018



Senators
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
District 5
District 6
Tom Emmer (R)
District 7
District 8
Democratic Party (6)
Republican Party (4)