List of U.S. Congress incumbents who did not run for re-election in 2018
From Ballotpedia
This page lists the incumbent members of the 115th U.S. Congress who did not run for re-election in the 2018 congressional elections for both U.S. Senate and U.S. House.
For a list of incumbents that did not seek re-election in 2016, click here. For a list of incumbents that did not run for re-election in 2020, click here.
U.S. Senate members
0 Democrats
3 Republicans
| Name | Party | State | Date announced | Winner of open seat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bob Corker | Tennessee | September 26, 2017[1] | ||
| Jeff Flake | Arizona | October 24, 2017[2] | ||
| Orrin Hatch | Utah | January 2, 2018[3] |
U.S. House members
A total of 52 representatives did not seek re-election to their U.S. House districts:
In total, 14 of the 52 districts changed party hands. Eleven seats flipped from Republican to Democrat. Three seats flipped from Democrat to Republican.
Incumbents who retired from public office
| Name | Party | District | Date announced | Winner of open seat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Shuster | Pennsylvania, District 9 | January 2, 2018[4] | ||
| Bob Goodlatte | Virginia, District 6 | November 9, 2017[5] | ||
| Carol Shea-Porter | New Hampshire, District 1 | October 6, 2017[6] | ||
| Darrell Issa | California, District 49 | January 10, 2018[7] | ||
| Dave Reichert | Washington, District 8 | September 6, 2017[8] | ||
| David Trott | Michigan, District 11 | September 11, 2017[9] | ||
| Dennis Ross | Florida, District 15 | April 11, 2018[10] | ||
| Edward Royce | California, District 39 | January 8, 2018[11] | ||
| Elizabeth Esty | Connecticut, District 5 | April 2, 2018[12] | ||
| Frank LoBiondo | New Jersey, District 2 | November 7, 2017[13] | ||
| Gene Green | Texas, District 29 | November 13, 2017[14] | ||
| Gregg Harper | Mississippi, District 3 | January 4, 2018[15] | ||
| Ileana Ros-Lehtinen | Florida, District 27 | April 30, 2017[16] | ||
| Jeb Hensarling | Texas, District 5 | October 31, 2017[17] | ||
| Joe Barton | Texas, District 6 | November 30, 2017[18] | ||
| John J. Duncan, Jr. | Tennessee, District 2 | July 31, 2017[19] | ||
| Lamar Smith | Texas, District 21 | November 2, 2017[20] | ||
| Luis V. Gutierrez | Illinois, District 4 | November 27, 2017[21] | ||
| Lynn Jenkins | Kansas, District 2 | January 25, 2017[22] | ||
| Niki Tsongas | Massachusetts, District 3 | August 9, 2017[23] | ||
| Paul Ryan | Wisconsin, District 1 | April 11, 2018[24] | ||
| Rick Nolan | Minnesota, District 8 | February 9, 2018[25] | ||
| Robert Brady | Pennsylvania, District 1 | January 31, 2018[26] | ||
| Rodney Frelinghuysen | New Jersey, District 11 | January 29, 2018[27] | ||
| Ruben J. Kihuen | Nevada, District 4 | December 16, 2017[28] | ||
| Ryan Costello | Pennsylvania, District 6 | March 25, 2018[29] | ||
| Sam Johnson | Texas, District 3 | January 6, 2017[30] | ||
| Sandy Levin | Michigan, District 9 | December 2, 2017[31] | ||
| Ted Poe | Texas, District 2 | November 7, 2017[32] | ||
| Thomas Garrett | Virginia, District 5 | May 28, 2018[33] | ||
| Thomas Rooney | Florida, District 17 | February 19, 2018[34] | ||
| Trey Gowdy | South Carolina, District 4 | January 31, 2018[35] |
Incumbents who sought other offices
U.S. House members who ran for president
One Democrat
0 Republicans
| Name | Party | Office | Date announced | Winner of open seat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Delaney | Maryland, District 6 | July 28, 2017[36] |
U.S. House members who sought a seat in the U.S. Senate
3 Democrats
7 Republicans
| Name | Party | Office | Date announced | Winner of open seat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beto O'Rourke | Texas, District 16 | March 31, 2017[37] | ||
| Jacky Rosen | Nevada, District 3 | July 6, 2017[38] | ||
| James B. Renacci[39][40] | Ohio, District 16 | January 11, 2018[41] | ||
| Kevin Cramer | North Dakota, At-Large District | February 15, 2018[42] | ||
| Kyrsten Sinema | Arizona, District 9 | May 29, 2018[43] | ||
| Lou Barletta | Pennsylvania, District 11 | August 29, 2017[44] | ||
| Luke Messer | Indiana, District 6 | August 14, 2017[45] | ||
| Marsha Blackburn | Tennessee, District 7 | October 5, 2017[46] | ||
| Martha McSally | Arizona, District 2 | January 12, 2018[47] | ||
| Todd Rokita | Indiana, District 4 | August 9, 2017[48] |
U.S. House members who ran for governor
4 Democrats
4 Republicans
| Name | Party | Office | Date announced | Winner of open seat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colleen Hanabusa | Hawaii, District 1 | September 1, 2017[49] | ||
| Diane Black | Tennessee, District 6 | August 2, 2017[50] | ||
| Jared Polis | Colorado, District 2 | June 11, 2017[51] | ||
| Kristi L. Noem | South Dakota, At-Large District | November 14, 2016[52] | ||
| Michelle Lujan Grisham | New Mexico, District 1 | December 13, 2016[53] | ||
| Raul R. Labrador | Idaho, District 1 | May 9, 2017[54] | ||
| Steve Pearce | New Mexico, District 2 | July 10, 2017[55] | ||
| Tim Walz | Minnesota, District 1 | March 27, 2017[56] |
U.S. House members who ran for state attorney general
1 Democrat
0 Republicans
| Name | Party | Office | Date announced | Winner of open seat |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keith Ellison | Minnesota, District 5 | June 5, 2018[57] |
Congressional incumbents who left office early or announced resignations
| Name | Party | Office | Date left office | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Franken | U.S. Senate, Minnesota | December 7, 2017[58] | ||
| Blake Farenthold | U.S. House, Texas District 27 | April 6, 2018[59] | ||
| Charlie Dent | U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 15 | May 12, 2018[60] | ||
| Evan Jenkins | U.S. House, West Virginia District 3 | September 30, 2018[61] | ||
| Jason Chaffetz | U.S. House, Utah District 3 | June 30, 2017[62] | ||
| Jeff Sessions | U.S. Senate, Alabama | February 9, 2017[63] | ||
| Jim Bridenstine | U.S. House, Oklahoma 1 | April 23, 2018[64] | ||
| John Conyers, Jr. | U.S. House, Michigan District 13 | December 5, 2017[65] | ||
| Louise Slaughter | U.S. House, New York District 25 | March 16, 2018[66] | ||
| Michael "Mick" Mulvaney | U.S. House, South Carolina District 5 | February 16, 2017[67] | ||
| Mike Pompeo | U.S. House, Kansas District 4 | January 23, 2017[68] | ||
| Patrick Meehan | U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 7 | April 27, 2018[69] | ||
| Patrick J. Tiberi | U.S. House, Ohio District 12 | January 15, 2018[70] | ||
| Ron DeSantis | U.S. House, Florida District 6 | September 10, 2018[71] | ||
| Ryan Zinke | U.S. House, Montana At-Large | March 1, 2017[72] | ||
| Thad Cochran | U.S. Senate, Mississippi | April 1, 2018[73] | ||
| Tim Murphy | U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 18 | October 21, 2017[74] | ||
| Tom Price | U.S. House, Georgia District 6 | February 10, 2017[75] | ||
| Trent Franks | U.S. House, Arizona District 8 | December 8, 2017[76] | ||
| Xavier Becerra | U.S. House, California District 34 | January 24, 2017[77] | ||
| John McCain | U.S. Senate, Arizona | August 25, 2018[78] |
Analysis
Historical comparison
The following table includes figures on Democratic and Republican members of Congress who either left office during their term or announced that they would not seek re-election for each election year since 2012.
| Outgoing members of Congress, 2012-2018 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Chamber | Democrats not seeking re-election | Republicans not seeking re-election | Total not seeking re-election | Democrats leaving office early | Republicans leaving office early | Total leaving office early |
| 2018 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| U.S. House | 18 | 34 | 52 | 3 | 14 | 17 | |
| Total | 18 | 37 | 55 | 4 | 16 | 20 | |
| 2016 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| U.S. House | 16 | 24 | 40 | 2 | 5 | 7 | |
| Total | 19 | 26 | 45 | 2 | 5 | 7 | |
| 2014 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 5 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| U.S. House | 16 | 25 | 41 | 3 | 6 | 9 | |
| Total | 21 | 27 | 48 | 6 | 8 | 14 | |
| 2012 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 6 | 3 | 10[79] | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| U.S. House | 23 | 20 | 43 | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
| Total | 29 | 23 | 53 | 4 | 1 | 5 | |
Retirements as a percentage of party caucus
The number of retirements in each party as a percentage of the party's total number of Congressional members illustrates the amount of turnover happening within a party in a given election cycle. The table below shows Congressional retirements as a percentage of each party's total caucus members immediately following the previous election.
| Retirements as percent of Democrat and Republican caucus | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cycle | Total retiring incumbents | Retiring Democrats | Retiring Democrats as percentage of caucus | Retiring Republicans | Retiring Republicans as percentage of caucus |
| 2022 | 55 | 32 | 11.85% | 23 | 8.75% |
| 2020 | 40 | 10 | 3.57% | 29 | 11.46% |
| 2018 | 55 | 18 | 7.44% | 37 | 12.63% |
| 2016 | 45 | 19 | 8.12% | 26 | 8.64% |
| 2014 | 48 | 21 | 8.47% | 27 | 9.41% |
Prior election margins of victory
Retirements in districts with a narrow margin of victory (MOV) can indicate a potentially competitive election in the next cycle. Retirements from seats with a margin of victory of less than 10 percentage points in each election cycle included:
- Seven Democrats and three Republicans out of 56 total retirements in the 2022 cycle
- Seven Republicans out of 40 total retirements in the 2020 cycle
- Five Democrats and three Republicans out of 55 total retirements in the 2018 cycle
- Five Democrats and one Republican out of 45 total retirements in the 2016 cycle
- Five Democrats and Five Republicans out of 48 total retirements in the 2014 cycle
| Retirements in districts that had a MOV of 10 percentage points or less in the prior cycle, 2014-2022 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cycle | Total retiring incumbents | Retiring incumbents with MOV of <10% | Retiring Democrats with MOV of <10% | Retiring Republicans with MOV of <10% |
| 2022 | 55 | 10 | 7 | 3 |
| 2020 | 40 | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| 2018 | 55 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| 2016 | 45 | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| 2014 | 48 | 10 | 5 | 5 |
The average 2016 margin of victory of House incumbents not running for re-election in 2018 was 29.7 percent. By comparison, the average 2014 margin of victory of those House members who did not run for re-election in 2016 was 34.1 percent.
Ballotpedia noted the margin of victory in the previous election of U.S. House incumbents who did not run for re-election in 2018, as compared to those incumbents who did not run for re-election in 2016. This data is shown in the chart below. The average margin of victory in all U.S. House races in 2016 was 36.7 percent.
- Note: This data for this analysis includes six members who announced they were not running for re-election in the 2018 cycle prior to their resigning from the House of Representatives.
Congressional retirements by month, 2011-2020
Between January 2011 and June 2024, Ballotpedia tracked 354 announcements from members of the U.S. House and Senate who announced they would not run for re-election. January had the highest number of members announcing they would not run for re-election at 67. Forty-seven of those took place during election years and 20 during odd-number years. The fewest announcements took place in June at 12—nine during off years and three during election years.
Hover over the bars in the chart below to see the number of even- and odd-year announcements by month.
November had the second-highest total announcements at 46. Five November announcements occurred during an election year and 41 occurred during an off year.
August saw the second-fewest announcements after June at 15. All but one occurred during off years.
Announcements by month and year
The following table shows the number of members who announced they would not run for re-election by month and by year. Click on a month to sort the table in ascending or descending order by that month.
Wave election analysis
- See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)
The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?
Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.
Applying this definition to U.S. House elections and U.S. Senate elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose 48 House seats and seven Senate seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election in each chamber.
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 11 U.S. House waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.
| U.S. House wave elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | House seats change | House majority[80] | |
| 1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -97 | D | |
| 1922 | Harding | R | First midterm | -76 | R | |
| 1938 | Roosevelt | D | Second midterm | -70 | D | |
| 2010 | Obama | D | First midterm | -63 | R (flipped) | |
| 1920 | Wilson | D | Presidential | -59 | R | |
| 1946 | Truman | D | First midterm | -54 | R (flipped) | |
| 1994 | Clinton | D | First midterm | -54 | R (flipped) | |
| 1930 | Hoover | R | First midterm | -53 | D (flipped) | |
| 1942 | Roosevelt | D | Third midterm | -50 | D | |
| 1966 | Johnson | D | First midterm[81] | -48 | D | |
| 1974 | Ford | R | Second midterm[82] | -48 | D | |
The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 U.S. Senate waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.
| U.S. Senate wave elections | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | President | Party | Election type | Senate seats change | Senate majority[83] | |
| 1932 | Hoover | R | Presidential | -13 | D (flipped) | |
| 1958 | Eisenhower | R | Second midterm | -12 | D | |
| 1946 | Truman | D | First midterm | -10 | R (flipped) | |
| 1980 | Carter | D | Presidential | -9 | R (flipped) | |
| 2014 | Obama | D | Second midterm | -9 | R (flipped) | |
| 1942 | Roosevelt | D | Third midterm | -8 | D | |
| 2008 | George W. Bush | D | Presidential | -8 | D | |
| 1926 | Coolidge | R | First midterm[84] | -7 | R | |
| 1930 | Hoover | R | First midterm | -7 | R | |
| 1986 | Reagan | R | Second midterm | -7 | D (flipped) | |
See also
Footnotes
- ↑ CNBC, "Republican Sen. Bob Corker of Tennessee will not seek re-election," September 26, 2017
- ↑ Politico, "Flake retiring after 2018," October 24, 2017
- ↑ WMTV NBC 15, "Utah GOP Senator Orrin Hatch announces plans to retire," January 2, 2018
- ↑ The Hill, "GOP Rep. Shuster won't seek reelection," January 2, 2018
- ↑ Congressman Bob Goodlatte, "Goodlatte: It’s An Honor to Serve You," November 9, 2017
- ↑ The Hill, "Vulnerable Democrat won’t seek reelection," October 6, 2017
- ↑ CNBC, "California GOP Darrell Issa will retire, giving Democrats another chance to win a seat," January 10, 2018
- ↑ The Washington Post, "Dave Reichert, a swing seat Republican, will retire from the House," September 6, 2017
- ↑ The Detroit News, "Rep. Dave Trott is retiring from U.S. House," September 11, 2017
- ↑ The Hill, "GOP Rep. Ross won't seek reelection," April 11, 2018
- ↑ The Hill, "House Foreign Affairs chairman to retire," January 8, 2018
- ↑ Hartford Courant, "Elizabeth Esty Not Running For Re-Election," April 2, 2018
- ↑ Congressman Frank LoBiondo, "LoBiondo Statement on 2018 Election," accessed November 7, 2017
- ↑ Politico, "Rep. Gene Green to retire," November 13, 2017
- ↑ Clarion Ledger, "Harper won't seek re-election," January 4, 2018
- ↑ Miami Herald, "Why I’m retiring from Congress. A message from Ileana Ros-Lehtinen," April 30, 2017
- ↑ Dallas News, "Republican Jeb Hensarling won't run for re-election," October 31, 2017
- ↑ Dallas News, "Rep. Joe Barton: I will not seek re-election," November 30, 2017
- ↑ WVLT TV, "Congressman Jimmy Duncan will not seek re-election next year," July 31, 2017
- ↑ The Hill, "Lamar Smith to retire from Congress," November 2, 2017
- ↑ Politico, "Gutierrez won't seek reelection," November 27,2017
- ↑ WIBW, "Rep. Lynn Jenkins will not run "for any office in 2018"," January 25, 2017
- ↑ Boston Herald, "Buzz builds over potential candidates to fill Niki Tsongas' seat," August 9, 2017
- ↑ CNN, "House Speaker Paul Ryan won't seek re-election: 'I like to think I've done my part'," April 11, 2018
- ↑ MinnPost, "Rep. Rick Nolan will retire," February 9, 2018
- ↑ The Hill, "Pennsylvania Dem not running for reelection," January 31, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "Frelinghuysen won’t seek reelection," January 29, 2018
- ↑ The Hill, "Kihuen won't seek reelection amid sexual harassment allegations," December 16, 2017
- ↑ The Hill, "Costello won't seek reelection in Pennsylvania," March 25, 2018
- ↑ The Hill, "Texas Rep. Sam Johnson to retire," January 6, 2017
- ↑ Fox News, "Democrat Sandy Levin retiring from House, won't seek 19th term in 2018," December 2, 2017
- ↑ CNN, "Texas Republican Rep. Ted Poe announces retirement", November 7, 2017
- ↑ POLITICO, "Garrett to quit Congress amid servant scandal, alcoholism," May 28, 2018
- ↑ Tampa Bay Times, "Rep. Tom Rooney will not seek re-election," February 19, 2018
- ↑ The Hill, "Trey Gowdy announces retirement from Congress," January 30, 2018
- ↑ Los Angeles Times, "Rep. John Delaney of Maryland to run for president," July 28, 2017
- ↑ The Dallas Morning News, "Beto O'Rourke launches 2018 Senate campaign in underdog bid to unseat Ted Cruz," March 31, 2017
- ↑ Las Vegas Review-Journal, "Rosen’s Senate bid the first 2018 political domino to fall in Nevada," July 6, 2017
- ↑ Renacci originally announced he would not seek re-election on March 20, 2017, in order to run for governor.
- ↑ Roll Call, "Who Could Replace Ohio Rep. Jim Renacci in Congress?" March 20, 2017
- ↑ Cleveland.com, "Jim Renacci drops out of the Ohio governor's race to run for Senate," January 11, 2018
- ↑ The Washington Post, "Republican Kevin Cramer to run for Senate in North Dakota in boost for GOP," February 15, 2018
- ↑ ABC15, "Kyrsten Sinema files signatures to run for US Senate," May 29, 2018
- ↑ USA Today, "Rep. Lou Barletta announces challenge to Sen. Bob Casey in 2018 Senate race," August 29, 2017
- ↑ WFYI, "Luke Messer Kicks Off 2018 Senate Campaign," August 14, 2017
- ↑ NPR, "Marsha Blackburn, 'Politically Incorrect And Proud Of It,' Runs For Senate In Tenn.," October 5, 2017
- ↑ USA Today, "Arizona Rep. Martha McSally announces she's running for Senate," January 12, 2018
- ↑ WBAA, "Rokita Launches Senate Bid In Crowded Republican Field," August 9, 2017
- ↑ Hawaii News Now, "U.S. Rep. Hanabusa throws her name in the hat for 2018 gubernatorial race," September 1, 2017
- ↑ The Tennessean, "Diane Black enters race for governor of Tennessee," August 2, 2017
- ↑ The Denver Post, " Jared Polis to join crowded 2018 race for governor, tells The Post he wants 'a Colorado that works for everybody,'" June 11, 2017
- ↑ Argus Leader, "Noem announces historic bid for governor," November 14, 2016
- ↑ Albuquerque Journal, "Lujan Grisham running for governor," December 13, 2016
- ↑ Politico, "Labrador to run for Idaho governor," May 9, 2017
- ↑ Albuquerque Business First, "NM congressman announces run for governor," July 10, 2017
- ↑ Minneapolis Star Tribune, "U.S. Rep. Tim Walz running for governor," March 27, 2017
- ↑ The Washington Post, "Keith Ellison to leave Congress and run for attorney general in Minnesota," June 5, 2018
- ↑ The Week, "Al Franken announces resignation following allegations of inappropriate behavior," December 7, 2017
- ↑ Roll Call, "Farenthold Resigns After Sexual Harassment Scandal," April 6, 2018
- ↑ Twitter, "Craig Caplan," May 8, 2018
- ↑ Roll Call, "Evan Jenkins to Resign Seat on Sunday, Head to West Virginia Supreme Court," September 27, 2018
- ↑ Utah Policy, "Rules for special election to replace Chaffetz set, but lawsuits loom," May 19, 2017
- ↑ Senate.gov, "On the Nomination (Confirmation Jeff Sessions, of Alabama, to be Attorney General)" February 8, 2017
- ↑ CBS News, "Jim Bridenstine sworn in as NASA administrator," April 23, 2018
- ↑ Chicago Tribune, "U.S. Rep. John Conyers announces retirement from Congress," December 5, 2017
- ↑ CNN, "Rep. Louise Slaughter, New York Democratic 'trailblazer,' dead at 88," March 16, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "Senate confirms Mulvaney to head Office of Management and Budget," February 16, 2017
- ↑ CBS News, "Mike Pompeo confirmed by Senate as new CIA director," January 23, 2017
- ↑ The Hill, "Meehan resigns with promise to pay back alleged sexual harassment claim," April 27, 2018
- ↑ The Columbus Dispatch, "Tiberi’s last day in Congress will be Jan. 15," January 3, 2018
- ↑ The Hill, "DeSantis resigns House seat to focus on governor's race," September 10, 2018
- ↑ Senate.gov, "On the Nomination (Confirmation Ryan Zinke, of Montana, to be Secretary of the Interior)," accessed December 17, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "Cochran to resign April 1," March 5, 2018
- ↑ Politico, "Tim Murphy resigns from Congress," October 5, 2017
- ↑ The New York Times, "Tom Price Is Confirmed as Health Secretary," February 10, 2017
- ↑ Washington Post, "Rep. Trent Franks, facing ethics investigation, says he will resign immediately," December 8, 2017
- ↑ National Association of Attorneys General, "Xavier Becerra," accessed September 26, 2019
- ↑ USA Today, "Sen. John McCain, American 'maverick' and political giant, dies at 81," August 25, 2018
- ↑ Figure includes Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.).
- ↑ Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election.
- ↑ Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
- ↑ Gerald Ford's (R) first term began in August 1974 following the resignation of President Richard Nixon (R), who was first elected in 1968 and was re-elected in 1972. Because Ford only served for two full months before facing the electorate, this election is classified as Nixon's second midterm.
- ↑ Denotes the party that had more seats in the U.S. House following the election.
- ↑ Calvin Coolidge's (R) first term began in August 1923 after the death of President Warren Harding (R), who was first elected in 1920. Before he had his first midterm in 1926, Coolidge was re-elected as president in 1924.
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