Vermont gubernatorial election, 2018

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General election
General election for Governor of Vermont

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Phil_Scott.jpg
Phil Scott (R)
 
55.2
 
151,261
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/698D332B-0340-4B04-883B-AA159BE643C8.jpeg
Christine Hallquist (D) Candidate Connection
 
40.3
 
110,335
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/TrevorBarlow-formal_governor.jpg
Trevor Barlow (Independent) Candidate Connection
 
1.2
 
3,266
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Charles Laramie (Independent)
 
0.8
 
2,287
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/CrisEricson.jpg
Cris Ericson (Independent)
 
0.8
 
2,129
Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
Stephen Marx (Earth Rights Party)
 
0.7
 
1,855
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Emily_Peyton.jpg
Emily Peyton (Liberty Union Party)
 
0.7
 
1,839
 Other/Write-in votes
 
0.4
 
1,115

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 274,087
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates


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Governor of Vermont
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: May 31, 2018
Primary: August 14, 2018
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent(s):
Phillip Scott (Republican)
How to vote
Poll times: Open between 5 a.m. to 10 a.m.; close at 7 p.m.
Voting in Vermont
Race ratings
Cook Political Report: Solid Republican
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Republican
Inside Elections: Solid Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
Federal and state primary competitiveness
State executive elections in 2018
Impact of term limits in 2018
State government trifectas
State government triplexes
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
Vermont
executive elections
Governor

Lieutenant governor
Attorney general
Secretary of state
Treasurer
Auditor

Vermont held an election for governor on November 6, 2018. The candidate filing deadline was May 31, 2018.

Under the state constitution, if no gubernatorial candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote, the state legislature elects a governor directly from among the top three finishers. As of October 2018, the state legislature has decided the results of 25 gubernatorial elections. No second or third-place finisher has been elected governor by the legislature since 1789. The last gubernatorial election decided by the legislature was in 2014, when legislators voted in favor of another term for incumbent and first-place finisher Peter Shumlin (D).[3]


Democratic Party For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
Republican Party For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

For more information about gubernatorial elections in 2018, click here.

SETTING THE STAGE
  • Heading into the 2018 election, the sitting governor was Phillip Scott (R), who was first elected in 2016.
  • Heading into the election, Vermont was under a divided government. It had held this status since Scott took office in January 2017. Vermont was also under divided triplex control.
  • Vermont was won by the Democratic candidate in each of the previous five presidential elections. The widest margin of victory was Barack Obama's 37 percent margin in 2008 while the narrowest was Al Gore's ten percent margin in 2000.

    • Vermont was one of 36 states that held an election for governor in 2018. Democrats gained seven previously Republican-held seats, and Republicans gained one previously independent-held seat. Heading into the 2018 elections, there were 16 Democratic governors, 33 Republican governors, and one independent governor. In 2018, 26 of the 33 states with a Republican governor held a gubernatorial election, while nine out of the 16 states with a Democratic governor held a gubernatorial election. Seventeen of the 36 seats up for election were open seats (four Democratic, 12 Republican, and one independent), meaning that the sitting governor was not seeking re-election. Click here for more information on other 2018 gubernatorial elections.

    Candidates and election results

    See also: Statistics on gubernatorial candidates, 2018

    General election

    General election for Governor of Vermont

    The following candidates ran in the general election for Governor of Vermont on November 6, 2018.

    Candidate
    %
    Votes
    ✔
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Phil_Scott.jpg
    		Phil Scott (R)
     
    55.2
     
    		151,261
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/698D332B-0340-4B04-883B-AA159BE643C8.jpeg
    		Christine Hallquist (D) Candidate Connection
     
    40.3
     
    		110,335
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/TrevorBarlow-formal_governor.jpg
    		Trevor Barlow (Independent) Candidate Connection
     
    1.2
     
    		3,266
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    		Charles Laramie (Independent)
     
    0.8
     
    		2,287
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/CrisEricson.jpg
    		Cris Ericson (Independent)
     
    0.8
     
    		2,129
    Silhouette Placeholder Image.png
    		Stephen Marx (Earth Rights Party)
     
    0.7
     
    		1,855
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Emily_Peyton.jpg
    		Emily Peyton (Liberty Union Party)
     
    0.7
     
    		1,839
     Other/Write-in votes
     
    0.4
     
    		1,115

    Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

    		Total votes: 274,087
    Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
    If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

    Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

    Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

    Democratic primary election

    Democratic primary for Governor of Vermont

    Christine Hallquist defeated James Ehlers, Brenda Siegel, and Ethan Sonneborn in the Democratic primary for Governor of Vermont on August 14, 2018.

    Candidate
    %
    Votes
    ✔
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/698D332B-0340-4B04-883B-AA159BE643C8.jpeg
    		Christine Hallquist Candidate Connection
     
    48.2
     
    		27,622
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/JamesEhlers.png
    		James Ehlers
     
    22.1
     
    		12,668
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/brenda-siegel.png
    		Brenda Siegel
     
    21.4
     
    		12,262
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/636392700274531226-BUR20170824YOUNGGUV4.jpg
    		Ethan Sonneborn
     
    8.2
     
    		4,696

    There were no incumbents in this race. The results have been certified. Source

    		Total votes: 57,248
    Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
    If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

    Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

    Republican primary election

    Republican primary for Governor of Vermont

    Incumbent Phil Scott defeated Keith Stern in the Republican primary for Governor of Vermont on August 14, 2018.

    Candidate
    %
    Votes
    ✔
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Phil_Scott.jpg
    		Phil Scott
     
    67.4
     
    		24,142
    Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/keith_stern_vt_gov.jpg
    		Keith Stern
     
    32.6
     
    		11,669

    Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

    		Total votes: 35,811
    Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
    If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

    Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.


    Polls

    See also: Ballotpedia's approach to covering polls
    Vermont Governor 2018
    Poll Poll sponsor Phil Scott (R) Christine Hallquist (D)Trevor Barlow (I)Cris Ericson (I)Charles Laramie (I)Emily Peyton (Liberty Union Party)Stephen Marx (Earth Rights Party)None/Write in/OtherNot sure/No opinionMargin of errorSample size
    Braun Research
    (October 5-14, 2018)    		Vermont Public Radio and Vermont PBS 42%28%1%1%1%1%0%3%22%+/-4.4495
    Note: The polls above may not reflect all polls that have been conducted in this race. Those displayed are a random sampling chosen by Ballotpedia staff. If you would like to nominate another poll for inclusion in the table, send an email to editor@ballotpedia.org.

    Context of the 2018 election

    Race rating

    Race ratings: Vermont gubernatorial election, 2018
    Race trackerRace ratings
    November 5, 2018October 30, 2018October 23, 2018October 16, 2018
    The Cook Political ReportSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
    Inside Elections with Nathan L. GonzalesSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid RepublicanSolid Republican
    Larry J. Sabato's Crystal BallSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe RepublicanSafe Republican
    Note: Ballotpedia updates external race ratings every two weeks throughout the election season.

    Other 2018 statewide elections

    See also: States with both gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections in 2018

    This race took place in one of twenty-two states that held elections for both governor and U.S. Senate in 2018.

    A table of where these elections occurred, the names of incumbents prior to the 2018 elections, and links to our coverage of these races can be viewed by clicking "[show]" on the banner below:

    Wave election analysis

    See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)

    The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

    Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

    Applying this definition to gubernatorial elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose seven seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.

    The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 11 gubernatorial waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.

    Gubernatorial wave elections
    Year President Party Election type Gubernatorial seats change Elections analyzed[4]
    1970 Nixon R First midterm -12 35
    1922 Harding R First midterm -11 33
    1932 Hoover R Presidential -10 35
    1920 Wilson D Presidential -10 36
    1994 Clinton D First midterm -10 36
    1930 Hoover R First midterm -9 33
    1938 Roosevelt D Second midterm -9 33
    1966 Johnson D First midterm[5] -9 35
    1954 Eisenhower R First midterm -8 33
    1982 Reagan R First midterm -7 36
    2010 Obama D First midterm -7 33

    State overview

    Partisan control

    This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Vermont heading into the 2018 elections.

    Congressional delegation

    State executives

    • As of September 2018, Democrats held four of 10 state executive positions, Republicans held one, and the remaining five positions were officially nonpartisan.
    • The governor of Vermont was Republican Phil Scott. The state held elections for governor on November 6, 2018.

    State legislature

    • Democrats controlled both chambers of the Vermont General Assembly. They had a 80-53 majority in the state House and a 21-7 majority in the state Senate.

    Trifecta status

    • Vermont was under divided government, meaning that the two parties shared control of the state government. Phil Scott (R) served as governor, while Democrats controlled the state legislature.

    2018 elections

    See also: Vermont elections, 2018

    Vermont held elections for the following positions in 2018:

    Demographics

    Demographic data for Vermont
     VermontU.S.
    Total population:626,088316,515,021
    Land area (sq mi):9,2173,531,905
    Race and ethnicity**
    White:94.9%73.6%
    Black/African American:1.1%12.6%
    Asian:1.4%5.1%
    Native American:0.3%0.8%
    Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
    Two or more:1.9%3%
    Hispanic/Latino:1.7%17.1%
    Education
    High school graduation rate:91.8%86.7%
    College graduation rate:36%29.8%
    Income
    Median household income:$55,176$53,889
    Persons below poverty level:13.2%11.3%
    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
    Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Vermont.
    **Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

    As of July 2016, Vermont's largest cities by population were Burlington (pop. est. 42,239), Essex (pop. est. 21,519), and South Burlington (pop. est. 19,141).[6]

    State election history

    This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Vermont from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Vermont Secretary of State.[7]

    Historical elections

    Presidential elections

    This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Vermont every year from 2000 to 2016.

    Election results (President of the United States), Vermont 2000-2016
    Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
    2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 56.7% Republican Party Donald Trump 30.3% 26.4%
    2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 66.8% Republican Party Mitt Romney 31.1% 35.7%
    2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 67.5% Republican Party John McCain 30.4% 37.1%
    2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 58.9% Republican Party George W. Bush 38.8% 20.1%
    2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 50.6% Republican Party George W. Bush 40.7% 9.9%

    U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

    This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Vermont from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

    Election results (U.S. Senator), Vermont 2000-2016
    Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
    2016 Democratic Party Patrick Leahy 61.3% Republican Party Scott Milne 33.0% 28.3%
    2012 Grey.png Bernie Sanders 71.0% Republican Party John Macgovern 24.9% 46.1%
    2010 Republican Party Patrick Leahy 64.3% Democratic Party Len Britton 30.9% 33.4%
    2006 Democratic Party Bernie Sanders 65.4% Republican Party Rich Tarrant 32.4% 33.0%
    2004 Democratic Party Patrick Leahy 70.6% Republican Party Jack McMullen 24.5% 46.1%
    2000 Republican Party James M. Jeffords 65.6% Democratic Party Ed Flanagan 25.4% 40.2%

    Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

    This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every two years in Vermont.

    Election results (Governor), Vermont 2000-2016
    Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
    2016 Republican Party Phil Scott 52.9% Democratic Party Sue Minter 44.2% 8.7%
    2014 Democratic Party Peter Shumlin 46.5% Republican Party Scott Milne 45.2% 1.3%
    2012 Democratic Party Peter Shumlin 58.0% Republican Party Randy Brock 37.7% 20.3%
    2010 Democratic Party Peter Shumlin 49.5% Republican Party Brian Dubie 47.7% 1.8%
    2008 Republican Party Jim Douglas 53.4% Grey.png Anthony Pollina 21.9% 31.5%
    2006 Republican Party Jim Douglas 56.4% Democratic Party Scudder Parker 41.2% 15.2%
    2004 Republican Party Jim Douglas 58.7% Democratic Party Peter Clavelle 37.9% 20.8%
    2002 Republican Party Jim Douglas 44.9% Democratic Party Doug Racine 42.4% 2.5%
    2000 Democratic Party Howard Dean 50.5% Republican Party Ruth Dwyer 37.9% 12.6%

    Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

    See the list below for the members elected to represent Vermont in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Vermont has one at-large representative in the House. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

    Trifectas, 1992-2017

    “A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.”

    Vermont Party Control: 1992-2024
    Ten years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
    Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

    Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
    Governor D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R R R D D D D D D R R R R R R R R
    Senate D R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
    House R D D D D D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D


    Pivot Counties

    See also: Pivot Counties by state

    One of 14 Vermont counties—7.14 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

    Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
    County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
    Essex County, Vermont 16.65% 13.40% 14.48%

    In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Vermont with 56.7 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 30.3 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Vermont cast votes for the winning presidential candidate 60.0 percent of the time. In that same time frame, Vermont supported Republican candidates for president more often than Democratic candidates, 70.0 to 26.7 percent. The state, however, favored Democrats in every election between between 2000 and 2016.

    Presidential results by legislative district

    The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Vermont. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[8][9]

    In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won all 104 state House districts in Vermont with an average margin of victory of 35.6 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 92 out of 104 state House districts in Vermont with an average margin of victory of 29.4 points. Clinton won 27 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
    In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 12 out of 104 state House districts in Vermont with an average margin of victory of 6.1 points.


    Recent news

    The link below is to the most recent stories in a Google news search for the terms Vermont governor election 2018. These results are automatically generated from Google. Ballotpedia does not curate or endorse these articles.

    Vermont gubernatorial election, 2018 - Google News

    See also

    Vermont government:

    Elections:

    Ballotpedia exclusives:

    External links

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ Polls may have opened earlier than 10:00 a.m.; 10:00 a.m. was the latest poll opening time.
    2. ↑ Polls may have opened earlier than 10:00 a.m.; 10:00 a.m. was the latest poll opening time.
    3. ↑ Politico, "Vermont legislature to pick next governor Thursday," January 7, 2015
    4. ↑ The number of gubernatorial seats up for election varies, with as many as 36 seats and as few as 12 seats being up in a single even-numbered year.
    5. ↑ Lyndon Johnson's (D) first term began in November 1963 after the death of President John F. Kennedy (D), who was first elected in 1960. Before Johnson had his first midterm in 1966, he was re-elected president in 1964.
    6. ↑ Vermont Demographics, "Vermont Cities by Population," accessed September 6, 2018
    7. ↑ Vermont Secretary of State, "Election Results Archive," accessed September 6, 2018
    8. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
    9. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
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