Connecticut's 1st Congressional District election, 2018

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General election
General election for U.S. House Connecticut District 1

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/John_B._Larson.jpg
John Larson (D)
 
63.9
 
175,087
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/jennifer_nye_ct.jpg
Jennifer Nye (R)
 
35.0
 
96,024
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/mccormick3.jpg
Tom McCormick (G) Candidate Connection
 
1.1
 
3,029

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 274,140
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

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Connecticut's 1st Congressional District
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png
Democratic primary
Republican primary
General election
Election details
Filing deadline: June 12, 2018
Primary: August 14, 2018 (canceled)
General: November 6, 2018
Pre-election incumbent:
John Larson (Democrat)
How to vote
Poll times: 6 a.m. to 8 p.m.
Voting in Connecticut
Race ratings
Cook Partisan Voter Index (2018): D+12
Cook Political Report: Solid Democratic
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic
Inside Elections: Solid Democratic
Ballotpedia analysis
U.S. Senate battlegrounds
U.S. House battlegrounds
Federal and state primary competitiveness
Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2018
See also
Connecticut's 1st Congressional District
U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd • 3rd • 4th • 5th
Connecticut elections, 2018
U.S. Congress elections, 2018
U.S. Senate elections, 2018
U.S. House elections, 2018

All U.S. congressional districts, including the 1st Congressional District of Connecticut, held elections in 2018.

Heading into the election the incumbent was John Larson (D), who was first elected in 1998.

Connecticut's 1st Congressional District is located mainly in the central and north-central part of the state. Portions of Hartford, Litchfield, and Middlesex counties make up the district.[1]



Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Connecticut District 1

Incumbent John Larson defeated Jennifer Nye and Tom McCormick in the general election for U.S. House Connecticut District 1 on November 6, 2018.

Candidate
%
Votes
✔
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/John_B._Larson.jpg
John Larson (D)
 
63.9
 
175,087
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/jennifer_nye_ct.jpg
Jennifer Nye (R)
 
35.0
 
96,024
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/mccormick3.jpg
Tom McCormick (G) Candidate Connection
 
1.1
 
3,029

Incumbents are bolded and underlined. The results have been certified. Source

Total votes: 274,140
Candidate Connection = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.

Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

District analysis

See also: The Cook Political Report's Partisan Voter Index
See also: FiveThirtyEight's elasticity scores

The 2017 Cook Partisan Voter Index for this district was D+12, meaning that in the previous two presidential elections, this district's results were 12 percentage points more Democratic than the national average. This made Connecticut's 1st Congressional District the 110th most Democratic nationally.[2]

FiveThirtyEight's September 2018 elasticity score for states and congressional districts measured "how sensitive it is to changes in the national political environment." This district's elasticity score was 0.97. This means that for every 1 point the national political mood moved toward a party, the district was expected to move 0.97 points toward that party.[3]

Campaign finance

The chart below contains data from financial reports submitted to the Federal Election Commission.

Name Party Receipts* Disbursements** Cash on hand Date
John Larson Democratic Party $1,631,724 $1,696,553 $368,828 As of December 31, 2018
Jennifer Nye Republican Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***
Tom McCormick Green Party $0 $0 $0 Data not available***

Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2018. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC).

* According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee."
** According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election.
*** Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.


District history

2016

See also: Connecticut's 1st Congressional District election, 2016

Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated this race as safely Democratic. Incumbent John Larson (D) defeated Matthew Corey (R) and Mike DeRosa (G) in the general election on November 8, 2016. No candidate faced a primary election in August. Larson won re-election in the November 8 election.[4][5][6]<

U.S. House, Connecticut District 1 General Election, 2016
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Larson Incumbent 64.1% 200,686
     Republican Matthew Corey 33.8% 105,674
     Green Mike DeRosa 2.1% 6,563
     N/A Write-in 0% 2
Total Votes 312,925
Source: Connecticut Secretary of State

2014

See also: Connecticut's 1st Congressional District elections, 2014

The 1st Congressional District of Connecticut held an election for the U.S. House of Representatives on November 4, 2014. Incumbent John Larson (D) defeated Matthew Corey (R) and Jeffery Russell (G) in the general election.

U.S. House, Connecticut District 1 General Election, 2014
Party Candidate Vote % Votes
     Democratic Green check mark transparent.pngJohn Larson Incumbent 61.4% 135,825
     Republican Matthew Corey 37.1% 82,056
     Green Jeffery Russell 1.6% 3,447
Total Votes 221,328
Source: Connecticut Secretary of the State

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

One of eight Connecticut counties—12.5 percent—is a Pivot County. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

Counties won by Trump in 2016 and Obama in 2012 and 2008
County Trump margin of victory in 2016 Obama margin of victory in 2012 Obama margin of victory in 2008
Windham County, Connecticut 7.78% 13.28% 14.68%

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Connecticut with 54.6 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 40.9 percent. In presidential elections between 1900 and 2016, Connecticut voted Republican 53.33 percent of the time and Democratic 46.67 percent of the time. In the five presidential elections between 2000 and 2016, Connecticut voted Democratic all five times.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state House districts in Connecticut. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.[7][8]

In 2012, Barack Obama (D) won 120 out of 151 state House districts in Connecticut with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. In 2016, Hillary Clinton (D) won 105 out of 151 state House districts in Connecticut with an average margin of victory of 30.9 points. Clinton won 32 districts controlled by Republicans heading into the 2018 elections.
In 2012, Mitt Romney (R) won 31 out of 151 state House districts in Connecticut with an average margin of victory of 8.6 points. In 2016, Donald Trump (R) won 46 out of 151 state House districts in Connecticut with an average margin of victory of 11.6 points. Trump won seven districts controlled by Democrats heading into the 2018 elections.

State overview

Partisan control

This section details the partisan control of federal and state positions in Connecticut heading into the 2018 elections.

Congressional delegation

State executives

State legislature

  • Democrats controlled both chambers of the Connecticut General Assembly. They had a 80-71 majority in the state House and a 18-18 majority in the state Senate.

Trifecta status

  • Connecticut was one of eight Democratic trifectas, meaning that Democrats controlled the office of the governor, the state House, and the state Senate.

2018 elections

See also: Connecticut elections, 2018

Connecticut held elections for the following positions in 2018:

Demographics

Demographic data for Connecticut
 ConnecticutU.S.
Total population:3,584,730316,515,021
Land area (sq mi):4,8423,531,905
Race and ethnicity**
White:77.3%73.6%
Black/African American:10.3%12.6%
Asian:4.2%5.1%
Native American:0.2%0.8%
Pacific Islander:0%0.2%
Two or more:2.8%3%
Hispanic/Latino:14.7%17.1%
Education
High school graduation rate:89.9%86.7%
College graduation rate:37.6%29.8%
Income
Median household income:$70,331$53,889
Persons below poverty level:12.2%11.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, "American Community Survey" (5-year estimates 2010-2015)
Click here for more information on the 2020 census and here for more on its impact on the redistricting process in Connecticut.
**Note: Percentages for race and ethnicity may add up to more than 100 percent because respondents may report more than one race and the Hispanic/Latino ethnicity may be selected in conjunction with any race. Read more about race and ethnicity in the census here.

As of July 2016, Connecticut's three largest cities were Bridgeport (pop. est. 146,579), New Haven (pop. est. 131,014), and Stamford (pop. est. 130,824).[9][10]

State election history

This section provides an overview of federal and state elections in Connecticut from 2000 to 2016. All data comes from the Connecticut Secretary of State.

Historical elections

Presidential elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the presidential election in Connecticut every year from 2000 to 2016.

Election results (President of the United States), Connecticut 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Hillary Clinton 54.6% Republican Party Donald Trump 40.9% 13.7%
2012 Democratic Party Barack Obama 58.1% Republican Party Mitt Romney 40.8% 17.3%
2008 Democratic Party Barack Obama 60.6% Republican Party John McCain 38.2% 22.4%
2004 Democratic Party John Kerry 54.3% Republican Party George W. Bush 43.9% 10.4%
2000 Democratic Party Al Gore 55.9% Republican Party George W. Bush 38.4% 17.5%

U.S. Senate elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of U.S. Senate races in Connecticut from 2000 to 2016. Every state has two Senate seats, and each seat goes up for election every six years. The terms of the seats are staggered so that roughly one-third of the seats are up every two years.

Election results (U.S. Senator), Connecticut 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2016 Democratic Party Richard Blumenthal 63.2% Republican Party Dan Carter 34.6% 28.6%
2012 Democratic Party Christopher Murphy 54.8% Republican Party Linda McMahon 43.1% 11.7%
2010 Democratic Party Richard Blumenthal 55.2% Republican Party Linda McMahon 43.2% 12%
2006 Grey.png Joe Lieberman (I) 49.7% Democratic Party Ned Lamont 39.7% 12.2%
2004 Democratic Party Chris Dodd 66.4% Republican Party Jack Orchulli 32.1% 34.3%
2002 Democratic Party Joe Lieberman 63.2% Republican Party Philip Giordano 34.2% 29%

Gubernatorial elections, 2000-2016

This chart shows the results of the four gubernatorial elections held between 2000 and 2016. Gubernatorial elections are held every four years in Connecticut.

Election results (Governor), Connecticut 2000-2016
Year First-place candidate First-place candidate votes (%) Second-place candidate Second-place candidate votes (%) Margin of victory (%)
2014 Democratic Party Dan Malloy 50.7% Republican Party Tom Foley 48.2% 2.5%
2010 Democratic Party Dan Malloy 49.5% Republican Party Tom Foley 49% .5%
2006 Republican Party Jodi Rell 63.2% Democratic Party John DeStefano, Jr. 35.5% 27.7%
2002 Republican Party John G. Rowland 56.1% Democratic Party Bill Curry 43.9% 12.2%

Congressional delegation, 2000-2016

This chart shows the number of Democrats and Republicans who were elected to represent Connecticut in the U.S. House from 2000 to 2016. Elections for U.S. House seats are held every two years.

Congressional delegation, Connecticut 2000-2016
Year Republicans Republicans (%) Democrats Democrats (%) Balance of power
2016 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 5 100% D+5
2014 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 5 100% D+5
2012 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 5 100% D+5
2010 Republican Party 0 0% Democratic Party 5 100% D+5
2008 Republican Party 0 36.8% Democratic Party 5 100% D+5
2006 Republican Party 1 20% Democratic Party 4 80% D+4
2004 Republican Party 3 60% Democratic Party 2 40% R+1
2002 Republican Party 3 60% Democratic Party 2 40% R+1
2000 Republican Party 2 40% Democratic Party 3 60.0% D+1

Trifectas, 1992-2017

A state government trifecta occurs when one party controls both chambers of the state legislature and the governor's office.

Connecticut Party Control: 1992-2024
Fourteen years of Democratic trifectas  •  No Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Governor I I I R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
Senate D D D R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D
House D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D

See also

Footnotes

  1. ↑ United States Census Bureau, "Counties by Congressional Districts," accessed June 8, 2016
  2. ↑ Cook Political Report, "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index," April 7, 2017
  3. ↑ FiveThirtyEight, "Election Update: The Most (And Least) Elastic States And Districts," September 6, 2018
  4. ↑ The CT Mirror, "Clay Cope wins landslide in 5th, Daria Novak a squeaker in 2nd," May 9, 2016
  5. ↑ The CT Mirror, "CT GOP backs Carter for Senate, denies Wolf primary margin," May 9, 2016
  6. ↑ CNN, "Connecticut House 01 Results," November 8, 2016
  7. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts," July 9, 2013
  8. ↑ Daily Kos, "Daily Kos Elections' 2016 presidential results for congressional and legislative districts," February 6, 2017
  9. ↑ Cubit, "Connecticut by Population," accessed August 30, 2018
  10. ↑ U.S. Census Bureau, "Quickfacts Connecticut," accessed August 30, 2018
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Connecticut's current delegation to the United States Congress
Senators
Richard Blumenthal (D)
Christopher Murphy (D)
Representatives
District 1
District 2
District 3
District 4
Jim Himes (D)
District 5
Democratic Party (7)

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