Massachusetts State Senate elections, 2016
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| 2016 Massachusetts Senate Elections | |
|---|---|
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| Primary | September 8, 2016 |
| General | November 8, 2016 |
| 2016 Election Results | |
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All 40 seats in the Massachusetts State Senate were up for election in 2016. No changes occurred to the partisan balance of the chamber.
Introduction
Elections for the Massachusetts State Senate took place in 2016. The primary election took place on September 8, 2016, and the general election was held on November 8, 2016. The candidate filing deadline was June 7, 2016.
Majority control
- See also: Partisan composition of state senates
Heading into the election, the Democratic Party held the majority in the Massachusetts State Senate:
| Massachusetts State Senate | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Party | As of November 7, 2016 | After November 8, 2016 | |
| Democratic Party | 34 | 34 | |
| Republican Party | 6 | 6 | |
| Total | 40 | 40 | |
Incumbents retiring
Three incumbents did not run for re-election in 2016. Those incumbents were:
| Name | Party | Current Office |
|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Downing | Berkshire, Hampshire, Franklin & Hampden District | |
| Daniel Wolf | Cape and Islands District | |
| Brian Joyce | Norfolk, Bristol and Plymouth District |
2016 election competitiveness
Massachusetts saw a decrease in general election competition.
Ballotpedia conducts a yearly study of electoral competitiveness in state legislative elections. Details on how well Massachusetts performed in the study are provided in the image below. Click here for the full 2016 Competitiveness Analysis »
- In the Massachusetts State Senate, there were 34 Democratic incumbents and six Republican incumbents. Three incumbents faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There was one primary challenge in the Republican primary.
- In the House, there were 126 Democratic incumbents and 34 Republican incumbents. Seventeen state representatives faced primary opposition in the Democratic Party. There were no primary challenges in the Republican primary.
- Overall, 18.6 percent of Democratic incumbents and 21.4 percent of GOP incumbents faced primary opposition in all of the state legislatures with elections in 2016.
- The cumulative figure for how many state legislative candidates faced no major party opposition in November in these states was 41.8 percent. This compares to 32.7 percent in 2010, 38.3 percent in 2012, and 43.0 percent in 2014.
- More details on electoral competitiveness in Massachusetts can be found below.
Races we watched
Ballotpedia identified seven notable Massachusetts state legislative races in 2016, four of which were state Senate contests. One of these was a primary race, which can be seen under the "Primary election" tab below.
Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's coverage of notable Massachusetts races »
General election contests
Cape & Islands Senate District
- Two candidates competed to replace the Democratic incumbent.
☐ Anthony Schiavi ☑ Julian Andre Cyr
First Hampden & Hampshire Senate District
- A Republican candidate challenged the Democratic incumbent to a rematch.
- ☑ Eric Lesser (Inc.) ☐ Chip Harrington
Second Essex & Middlesex Senate District
- A Republican candidate targeted the Democratic incumbent.
- ☑ Barbara L'Italien (Inc.) ☐ Susan LaPlante
List of candidates
General election
Primary election
Primary contests
Plymouth & Norfolk Senate District
- The newly elected Republican incumbent faced challenges in both the primary and the general election.
- ☑ Patrick O'Connor (Inc.) ☐ Stephen Gill
Margins of victory
The average margin of victory for contested races in the Massachusetts State Senate in 2016 was higher than the national average. Out of 40 races in the Massachusetts State Senate in 2016, 14 were contested, meaning at least two candidates competed for that seat in the general election. The average margin of victory across these races was 29.3 percent. Across contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016, the average margin of victory was 29.01 percent.[3]
| Democratic candidates in the Massachusetts State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican candidates in 2016. Democrats won 34 races. In the 11 races where a winning Democrat faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 32.5 percent. Republicans won six races in 2016. In the three races where a winning Republican faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 17.5 percent. |
| More Democratic candidates than Republican candidates saw margins of victory that were less than 10 percentage points. One of the 14 contested races in 2016—7.1 percent—saw a margin of victory that was 10 percent or less. Democrats won the single race with a margin of victory of 10 percent or less. |
Massachusetts State Senate: 2016 Margins of Victory Less than 10 Percent District Winning Party Margin of Victory Worcester, Hampden, Hampshire & Middlesex District D 8.8 percent
| The average margin of victory for incumbents in the Massachusetts State Senate who ran for re-election and won in 2016 was lower than the national average. 37 incumbents who ran for re-election in 2016 won. The average margin of victory for the 12 winning Massachusetts State Senate incumbents who faced a challenger in 2016 was 29.7 percent. The average margin of victory for all winning incumbents in contested single-winner state legislative elections in 2016 was 31.8 percent. |
| Democratic incumbents in the Massachusetts State Senate saw larger margins of victory than Republican incumbents. 31 Democratic incumbents won re-election. In the nine races where a winning Democratic incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 33.7 percent. Six Republican incumbents won re-election. In the three races where a winning Republican incumbent faced a challenger, the average margin of victory was 17.5 percent. |
Massachusetts State Senate: 2016 Margin of Victory Analysis Party Elections won Average margin of victory[4] Races with incumbent victories Average margin of victory for incumbents[4] Unopposed incumbents Unopposed races Percent unopposed Democratic 34 32.5 percent 31 33.7 percent 22 23 67.6 percent Republican 6 17.5 percent 6 17.5 percent 3 3 50.0 percent Total 40 29.3 percent 37 29.7 percent 25 26 65.0 percent
Click [show] on the tables below to see the margin of victory in Massachusetts State Senate districts in 2016.
Important dates and deadlines
- See also: Massachusetts elections, 2016
The calendar below lists important dates for political candidates in Massachusetts in 2016.
| Dates and requirements for candidates in 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Deadline | Event type | Event description | |
| May 3, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day for party and non-party candidates for district and county offices to submit nomination papers to registrars of voters for signature certification | |
| May 10, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day for party candidates for federal and statewide offices candidates to submit nomination papers to registrars of voters for signature certification | |
| May 31, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day for party and non-party candidates for district and county offices to file nomination papers with the secretary of the commonwealth | |
| June 7, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day for party candidates for federal and statewide offices to file nomination papers with the secretary of the commonwealth | |
| August 2, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day for non-party candidates for federal and statewide offices candidates to submit nomination papers to registrars of voters for signature certification | |
| August 30, 2016 | Ballot access | Last day for non-party candidates for federal and statewide offices to file nomination papers with the secretary of the commonwealth | |
| September 8, 2016 | Election date | Primary election | |
| September 12, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-primary report due (covering January 1, 2016–September 2, 2016) | |
| October 31, 2016 | Campaign finance | Pre-election report due (covering September 3, 2016–October 21, 2016) | |
| November 8, 2016 | Election date | General election | |
| January 20, 2017 | Campaign finance | Year-end report due (covering October 22, 2016–December 31, 2016) | |
| Sources: Massachusetts Office of Campaign and Political Finance, "Filing Schedules," accessed June 30, 2015 Massachusetts Secretary of the Commonwealth, "2016 Massachusetts State Primary and State Election Schedule," accessed June 30, 2015 | |||
Competitiveness
Candidates unopposed by a major party
In 27 (67.5%) of the 40 seats up for election in 2016, there was only one major party candidate running for election. A total of three Republicans and 24 Democrats were guaranteed election barring unforeseen circumstances.
Two major party candidates faced off in the general election in 13 (32.5%) of the 40 seats up for election.
Primary challenges
Two incumbents faced primary competition on September 8. Three incumbents did not seek re-election and another 35 incumbents advanced past the primary without opposition.
Retired incumbents
Three incumbent senators did not run for re-election, while 37 incumbents ran for re-election. A list of those incumbents, three Democrats, can be found above.
Results from 2014
There were 6,057 seats in 87 chambers with elections in 2014. All three aspects of Ballotpedia's Competitiveness Index—the number of open seats, incumbents facing primary opposition, and general elections between partisan candidates—showed poor results compared to the prior election cycle. States with elections in 2014 held fewer general elections between partisan candidates. Additionally, fewer incumbents faced primary opposition and more incumbents ran for re-election than in recent years.
Since 2010, when the Competitiveness Index was established, there had not been an even-year election cycle to do statistically worse in any of the three categories. See the following chart for a breakdown of those scores between each year.
| Overall Competitiveness | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2012 | 2014 | |
| Competitiveness Index | 36.2 | 35.8 | 31.4 |
| % Open Seats | 18.6% | 21.2% | 17.0% |
| % Incumbent with primary challenge | 22.7% | 24.6% | 20.1% |
| % Candidates with major party opposition | 67.3% | 61.7% | 57.0% |
The following table details Massachusetts' rates for open seats, incumbents that faced primary challenges, and major party competition in the 2014 general election.
| Massachusetts General Court 2014 Competitiveness | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| % Open Seats | % Incumbent with primary challenge | % Candidates with major party opposition | Competitiveness Index | Overall rank |
| 10.5% | 8.4% | 39.0% | 19.3 | 42 |
Historical context
Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.
Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.
Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.
Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.
Campaign contributions
The following chart shows how many candidates ran for State Senate in Massachusetts in past years and the cumulative amount of campaign contributions in State Senate races, including contributions in both primary and general election contests.[5]
| Massachusetts State Senate Donations | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Candidates | Amount |
| 2014 | 78 | $7,075,522 |
| 2012 | 76 | $8,240,237 |
| 2010 | 93 | $8,892,186 |
| 2008 | 56 | $7,843,998 |
| 2006 | 68 | $7,834,264 |
State comparison
The map below shows the average contributions to 2014 candidates for state senates. The average contributions raised by state senate candidates in 2014 was $148,144. Massachusetts, at $90,712 per candidate, is ranked 24 of 42 for state senate chambers with the highest average contributions. Hover your mouse over a state to see the average campaign contributions for that state’s senate candidates in 2014.[5][6]
Qualifications
Article LXXI of the Massachusetts Constitution states: "Every representative, for one year at least immediately preceding his election, shall have been an inhabitant of the district for which he is chosen and shall cease to represent such district when he shall cease to be an inhabitant of the commonwealth."[7]
See also
External links
Footnotes
- ↑ Under Ballotpedia's competitiveness criteria, districts that have a margin of victory of less than 5 percent are considered highly competitive. Districts that have a margin of victory from 5 to 10 percent are considered mildly competitive.
- ↑ Jake Binnall was a write-in candidate for this seat. He received 84 votes.
- ↑ This calculation excludes chambers that had elections where two or more members were elected in a race. These chambers are the Arizona House, the New Hampshire House, the North Dakota House, the South Dakota House, the Vermont House, the Vermont Senate, and the West Virginia House.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 Excludes unopposed elections
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 followthemoney.org, "Contributions to candidates and committees in elections in Massachusetts," accessed July 28, 2015
- ↑ This map relies on data collected in July 2015.
- ↑ Massachusetts State Legislature, "Constitution of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts," accessed March 28, 2014
