Primary competitiveness in 2017 state legislative elections

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2017 State Legislative Elections
2018 » « 2016
2017 elections
New Jersey • Virginia 2017 special elections

In 2017, three out of 99 state legislative chambers held general elections: the New Jersey General Assembly, the New Jersey State Senate, and the Virginia House of Delegates. Virginia and New Jersey are two of four states that hold state legislative elections in odd years. The other two are Louisiana and Mississippi.^[1] Prior to 2017, the last time these three chambers alone were up for election in a single year was 2013—though the New Jersey Assembly and Virginia House also had elections in 2015. One major difference between the elections for these three chambers in 2017 and in 2013 is that 2017 featured more contested primary elections. Elections in the New Jersey Assembly and the Virginia House, in fact, had roughly twice as many contested primaries in 2017 as they had in 2013. Most of the contested primaries in 2017 were among Democratic candidates, and a majority of these contested Democratic primaries took place in Republican-controlled districts.

Overview

Out of 360 possible Democratic and Republican primary matchups in Virginia and New Jersey, 51 of them—or 14.17 percent—were contested in 2017, meaning there were 51 primaries in which candidates had to compete in order to advance to a general election. That was an increase from 2013, when 32 (8.9 percent) of 360 primaries were contested, and 2011, when 31 (8.6 percent) of 360 primaries were contested. The remaining 309 primaries (85.8 percent) in 2017 allowed for candidates to advance to the general election unopposed.

Democrats accounted for most of the uptick in contested primaries in 2017. Of the 51 contested primaries, 34 (66 percent) were Democratic races. In 2013 and 2011, there were 12 contested Democratic primaries. This uptick corresponded with a larger national trend of more Democrats filing to run for elected office since Republican Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election. According to a report from Vice News on April 24, 2017, a total of 408 Democratic candidates had declared plans to run for the U.S. House of Representatives, a 58 percent increase over the 259 candidates who had declared as of mid-April in 2014.^[2] Contested Republican primaries, on the other hand, decreased in 2017 in comparison to 2013 and 2011. There were 20 contested Republican primaries split between Virginia and New Jersey in 2013 and 19 contested primaries in 2011. In 2017, there were 17.

Where contested primaries took place

A majority of the Democratic primaries in 2017 took place in Republican-controlled districts. This means that a majority of contested Democratic primaries were contests to challenge Republican incumbents or Republican candidates in Republican-controlled districts. Out of the 34 Democratic primaries, 18 were in districts controlled by Republicans—15 of which were in the Virginia House, where Republicans held a 66-34 majority heading into the general election. Hillary Clinton (D) won eight of these 18 Republican-controlled districts in the 2016 presidential election.^[3]

Out of 17 Republican primaries, five took place in Democratic-controlled districts—all in New Jersey, where Democrats held majorities in the House and Senate heading into the general election. Donald Trump (R) won two of these five Democratic-controlled districts in the 2016 presidential election.^[3]

The table below shows every contested primary in these chambers in 2017. The top half of the table shows contested Democratic primaries. The bottom half shows contested Republican primaries. The districts are colored in blue or red to represent party control as of May 2017. Purple indicates that the district was a multi-member district with a Democratic and a Republican incumbent. All New Jersey General Assembly districts are multi-member districts.

Pivot counties

See also: Pivot Counties: The counties that voted Obama-Obama-Trump from 2008-2016

Three of the legislative districts that saw a contested primary in 2017 intersected with a Pivot County, a county that voted for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 but voted for Republican Donald Trump in 2016. Two of these three districts were in Virginia: Republican-controlled districts 54 and 99. The other was in New Jersey: Democratic-controlled District 3, where a Democratic challenger filed to run against two Democratic incumbents. There is a total of 206 Pivot Counties throughout the country, and 710 state legislative districts intersect or fall within them.

Incumbents in contested primaries

Out of 220 incumbents, 200 (90.91 percent) filed to run for re-election in 2017.^[5] A total of 32 of these 200 incumbents (16 percent) ran in contested primaries, 22 of which were in the New Jersey Assembly. In 2013, 205 incumbents (93.2 percent) ran for re-election, and 25 of those 205 (12.2 percent) ran in contested primaries. In 2011, 188 incumbents (85.5 percent) ran for re-election, and 18 of those 188 (9.6 percent) ran in contested primaries.

On the Democratic side in 2017, 22 incumbents faced primary challengers. On the Republican side, 10 incumbents faced primary challengers.

Contested primaries following the election of a new president

Two chambers, the New Jersey Assembly and the Virginia House of Delegates, hold elections in the years immediately following presidential election years. When Barack Obama (D) assumed office in 2009 and Donald Trump (R) assumed office in 2017, there were changes in the party of the U.S. president. More contested primaries were scheduled in 2009 and 2017 than in the years between them.

In 2017, the number of contested primaries was higher on the side of the party opposite the new president. There were 43 contested primaries: 31 Democratic primaries and 12 Republican primaries. In 2009, the number of contested primaries slightly favored the party opposite the new president. There were 35 primaries: 17 Democratic primaries and 18 Republican primaries.

In years that did not follow the election of a new president, the number of contested primaries was lower. In 2011, there were 22 contested primaries: nine Democratic primaries and 13 Republican primaries. In 2013, there were 21 contested primaries: eight Democratic primaries and 13 Republican primaries. In 2015, there were 15 contested primaries: nine Democratic primaries and six Republican primaries.

New Jersey

New Jersey General Assembly

See also: New Jersey General Assembly elections, 2017

The New Jersey General Assembly has 40 multi-member districts with two legislators in each district (80 total legislators). A primary in the New Jersey General Assembly was considered contested if more than two candidates filed to run in either a Democratic or Republican primary for a district. For example, if two incumbents filed to run for re-election, and one challenger filed to run against them, that primary was considered contested. Out of 80 possible primaries in the New Jersey General Assembly, 17 (21.25 percent) were contested: 11 Democratic primaries and six Republican primaries.

The 17 contested primaries in 2017 was the largest number of contested primaries since 2009. In 2009, there were 23 contested primaries: nine Democratic primaries and 14 Republican primaries. In 2011, there were 15 contested primaries: seven Democratic primaries and eight Republican primaries. In 2013, there were 10 contested primaries: five Democratic primaries and five Republican primaries. In 2015, there were five contested primaries: three Democratic primaries and two Republican primaries.

New Jersey State Senate

See also: New Jersey State Senate elections, 2017

The New Jersey State Senate has 40 seats in 40 districts. A primary in the New Jersey State Senate was considered contested if more than one candidate filed to run for a seat. Out of 80 possible primaries in the New Jersey State Senate, eight (10 percent) were contested in 2017: three Democratic primaries and five Republican primaries. The number of contested primaries in 2017 was similar to the numbers from the previous two elections. In 2013, there were 10 contested primaries: four Democratic primaries and six Republican primaries. In 2011, there were 9 contested primaries: three Democratic primaries and six Republican primaries.

A brief history of New Jersey politics

New Jersey leaned politically to the left in most elections leading up to the November 2017 elections.

Democrats took control of both chambers of the state Legislature in 2001 and held on to them in every election between then and 2015, the last time one of the chambers was up for election prior to 2017. In 2015, Democrats picked up four seats in the assembly, giving them a 52-28 majority. In 2013, Democrats maintained their 24-16 majority in the state Senate. The governor’s mansion followed slightly different trends in elections between 2001 and 2017. Republicans controlled the governor’s mansion from 1994 to 2001. Democrats controlled it from 2002 until 2009 when Republican Chris Christie defeated Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine 48.5 to 44.9 percent. Prior to Christie’s win in 2009, Republicans had not won a statewide election in New Jersey since 1997.^[6] Christie was re-elected in 2013 with 60 percent of the vote. At the beginning of 2017, New Jersey was one of 19 states under divided government.

At the federal level, New Jersey backed Democratic presidential candidates in every election between 1992 and 2016. Democrat Hillary Clinton won the state in 2016 with 55.5 percent of the vote. Two counties in New Jersey—Gloucester and Salem—are Pivot Counties, which voted for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 but voted for Republican Donald Trump in 2016. Ballotpedia identified a total of 206 Pivot Counties throughout the country. Following the 2016 elections, Democrats held seven out of New Jersey’s 12 congressional seats in the House and both Senate seats.

Party control

Democrats in the New Jersey General Assembly increased their majority in the 2015 elections from 48-31 to 52-28.

Democrats in the New Jersey State Senate maintained a 24-16 majority in the November 2013 elections.

Trifectas

A state government trifecta is a term that describes single party government, when one political party holds the governor's office and has majorities in both chambers of the legislature in a state government. Republicans held a trifecta in New Jersey from 1994 to 2001. Democrats gained a trifecta in 2004 and held on to it until 2010 when Chris Christie (R) was sworn in as governor.

Virginia

Virginia House of Delegates

See also: Virginia House of Delegates elections, 2017

The Virginia House of Delegates has 100 seats in 100 districts. A primary in Virginia was considered contested if more than one candidate filed to run for a seat. Virginia parties also use conventions and caucuses to select the candidates who will represent them on the general election ballot. Ballotpedia does not track conventions or caucuses, counting districts that do not have primaries as uncontested.

Out of 200 possible primaries in the Virginia House of Delegates, 26 (13 percent) were contested in 2017: 20 Democratic primaries and six Republican primaries. This was the greatest number of contested primaries and the greatest disparity between Democratic and Republican primaries since 2009.

In 2009, there were 12 contested primaries: eight Democratic primaries and four Republican primaries. In 2011, there were seven contested primaries: two Democratic primaries and five Republican primaries. In 2013, there were 12 contested primaries: three Democratic primaries and nine Republican primaries. In 2015, there were 10 contested primaries: six Democratic primaries and four Republican primaries.

A brief history of Virginia politics

Virginia developed a reputation as a political battleground state in elections leading up to the November 2017 elections, meaning electoral competition between Democrats and Republicans was more intense than in other states, and the outcomes of elections were often difficult to predict. For example, in gubernatorial elections between 1993 and 2013, Democrats and Republicans won three races each. Similarly, in presidential elections between 1992 and 2016, Republican candidates won four times, while Democratic candidates won three times. In 2016, Virginia was a closely watched battleground state in the presidential election. Democrat Hillary Clinton defeated Republican Donald Trump 49.7 to 44.4 percent. When those same results are broken down by state legislative House districts, Clinton defeated Trump in 51 out of 100 districts, based on data compiled by Daily Kos. When the presidential results are broken down by congressional districts, Trump won six districts, while Clinton won five. Five counties in Virginia—Buckingham, Caroline, Essex, Nelson, and Westmoreland—are Pivot Counties, which voted for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 but voted for Trump in 2016. Ballotpedia identified a total of 206 Pivot Counties throughout the country.

The state Senate followed patterns similar to those of statewide races in Virginia in elections prior to 2017. Republicans took control of the state Senate in 1997 and maintained their majority in every election until 2007. The chamber became tied at 20-20 in 2011, but Republicans won a 21-19 majority in 2015. The House of Delegates, however, deviated from trends found at the statewide level and in the state senate in elections during roughly this same timeframe. Republicans won control of the chamber in 1999 and defended their majority in the eight elections between 2001 and 2015. Republicans came out of the 2015 elections with a 66-34 majority, down slightly from their 67-33 majority heading into the election.

At the beginning of 2017, Virginia was one of 19 states under divided government.

Party control

Republicans in the Virginia House of Delegates saw their majority drop from 67-33 to 66-34 in the 2015 elections.

Trifectas

A state government trifecta is a term that describes single party government, when one political party holds the governor's office and has majorities in both chambers of the legislature in a state government. Democrats held a trifecta in Virginia from 1992 to 1993. Republicans held trifectas from 2000 to 2001 and 2012 to 2013. With the election of Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D) in 2013, Virginia began operating under divided government in 2014.

Broader context

See also: Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections: 1972-2014

Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.

Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.

Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.

Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.

See also

• State legislative elections, 2017
• State legislative elections, 2015
• State legislative elections, 2013
• Competitiveness Index by year: 2016 • 2015 • 2014 • 2013 • 2012 • 2011 • 2010
• Comparing the competitiveness index for state legislative elections

Footnotes

v • e Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections Background A "Competitiveness Index" for capturing competitiveness in state legislative elections • Creating an absolute measure for the "Competitiveness Index" in state legislative elections • Year-by-year comparison of results • Factors Affecting Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections 2023 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Impact of term limits • Open seats • Contested primaries • Incumbents in contested primaries • Major party competition • Incumbents defeated • Primary statistics 2022 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Impact of term limits • Open seats • Contested primaries • Incumbents in contested primaries • Major party competition • Incumbents defeated • Primary statistics 2021 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Major party competition • Open seats • Impact of term limits • Incumbents in contested primaries • Primary competitiveness • Incumbents defeated 2020 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Major party candidates with major party opposition • Open seats • Impact of term limits • Incumbents in contested primaries • Primary competitiveness • Incumbents defeated 2019 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Major party candidates with major party opposition • Open seats • Impact of term limits • Primary competitiveness • Incumbents defeated 2018 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Major party candidates with major party opposition • Open seats • Aftermath of the 2016 presidential election 2017 Primary competitiveness • Open seats • Incumbents with no primary challenger • Major party candidates with major party opposition • Incumbents defeated 2016 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Open Seats • Incumbents with no primary challenger • Major party candidates with major party opposition • Incumbents defeated 2015 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Open Seats • Incumbents with no primary challenger • Major party candidates with major party opposition • States Compared by Competitiveness • Incumbents defeated • Victorious challengers • List of candidates with no primary or general election opposition 2014 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Open Seats • Incumbents with no primary challenger • Major party candidates with major party opposition • States Compared by Competitiveness • Incumbents defeated • Victorious challengers • List of candidates with no primary or general election opposition 2013 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Open Seats • Incumbents with no primary challenger • Major party candidates with major party opposition • States Compared by Competitiveness • Incumbents with no primary or general election opposition • Incumbents defeated • Victorious challengers • List of candidates with no major party opposition 2012 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Open Seats • Incumbents with no primary challenger • Major party candidates with major party opposition • States Compared by Competitiveness • Incumbents with no primary or general election opposition • Incumbents defeated • Victorious challengers • List of candidates with no major party opposition • Impact of term limits 2011 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Open Seats • Incumbents with no primary challenger • Major party candidates with major party opposition • States Compared by Competitiveness • Incumbents with no primary or general election opposition • Incumbents defeated • Victorious challengers • List of candidates with no major party opposition • Impact of term limits 2010 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Open Seats •Incumbents with no primary challenger • Major party candidates with major party opposition • States Compared by Competitiveness • Incumbents with no primary or general election opposition • Incumbents defeated • Victorious challengers • List of candidates with no major party opposition • Impact of term limits 2009 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Open Seats • Incumbents with no primary challenger • Major party candidates with major party opposition 2007 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Open Seats • Incumbents with no primary challenger • Major party candidates with major party opposition

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