Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 11, 2021

2021 State Legislative Competitiveness
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2021 State legislative competitiveness
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Ballotpedia's 11th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzes all 220 state legislative seats with elections that took place on November 2, 2021.

Ballotpedia uses three factors to analyze the competitiveness of a state's legislative elections: how many incumbents filed for re-election, how many incumbents have contested primaries, and how many seats are contested between a Democratic and Republican candidate in the general election.

State legislative competitiveness in 2021 reached a decade-high compared to all odd-year election cycles since 2011. This increased competitiveness was driven primarily by elections in the Virginia House of Delegates, one of three chambers that held elections in 2021, the others being the New Jersey state Senate and General Assembly.

Key findings of this analysis include:

This report is organized into four sections. They are:

• Competitiveness overview
• Open seats
• Incumbents in contested primaries
• Major party competition

Competitiveness overview

See also: Comparing the competitiveness index for state legislative elections

Competitiveness in the 2021 state legislative elections reached a decade-high when compared to all election cycles since 2011.

The table below shows the Competitiveness Index for the 2021 state legislative elections as well as the three factors used to calculate the index. Historical indices are also shown for odd-year election cycles. Indices range from 0 to 100 with higher numbers indicating a more competitive electoral field and lower numbers indicating the opposite. Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's methodology used when calculating Competitiveness Indices.

The graph below combines these figures, showing how the increase in major party competition in 2021 affected the overall Competitiveness Index for the cycle.

The table below shows state-specific competitiveness data for Virginia and New Jersey as well as ranks by each criterion. New Jersey exceeded Virginia in every competitiveness criteria in 2021 and had the highest Competitiveness Index at 41.8 compared to Virginia's 38.0.

Open seats

See also: Open seats in state legislative elections, 2021

This section analyzes open seats in state legislative races. Ballotpedia considers a seat to be open if the incumbent legislator did not file to run for re-election or if he or she filed for re-election but withdrew before the primary.^[1] When a seat is open, it is guaranteed that a new legislator will take office at the start of the next session.

In 2021:

The chart below shows the number of open seats relative to the number of incumbents who filed for re-election across all state legislative elections in 2021. Use the links on the graphic to view state- or chamber-specific information.

The table below shows information on open seats and guaranteed new legislators in those states. The "Seats up" column shows the total number of seats up for election. The "Open Democratic" and "Open Republican" columns show the number of open seats based on the party affiliation of their incumbents. The "% of seats up" columns show the open seat figures as a percentage of the total number of seats up for election.

Click here to learn more about open seats in the 2021 state legislative elections.

Impact of term limits

See also: Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2021

Neither New Jersey nor Virginia had state legislative term limits, meaning all open seats were left by incumbents choosing not to file for re-election.

Term limits affect the members of 29 legislative chambers in 15 states. There are 1,972 state senate seats and 5,411 state house seats in the U.S. Of the 1,972 senate seats, 562 seats (29%) are subject to term limits. Of the 5,411 house seats, 1,368 seats (25%) are subject to term limits.

Incumbents in contested primaries

See also: State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2021

This section analyzes the number of incumbents who faced primary challenges. An incumbent is considered to be in a contested primary if there are more candidates running in the primary than there are seats up for election, meaning the incumbent could be defeated before the general election.

In 2021, 203 incumbents—125 Democrats and 78 Republicans—were seeking re-election at the time of their respective nominating contests.^[4] Of that total, 19.7% (40) had a contested primary and 80.3% (163) advanced to the general election without a primary challenge.^[5] This was the third-highest percentage of incumbents facing contested primaries in the preceding decade behind only the 2019 (30.1%) and 2015 (26.9%) election cycles.

In 2021:

The chart below shows the number of incumbents with contested primaries relative to the number of incumbents who filed for re-election and did not have a contested primary. Contested primary figures are bolded. Lighter figures represent the number of incumbent legislators who filed for re-election but did not have a contested primary. Use the links on the graphic to view state- or chamber-specific information.

The table below shows information on incumbents in contested primaries in those states. The "Seats up" column shows the total number of seats up for election. Party-specific information is shown beneath the "Democrats" and "Republicans" columns. Percentages were calculated by dividing the number of incumbents with contested primaries by the total number of incumbents seeking re-election. The "Total" column combines information from both parties to show chamber, state, and national totals.

Click here to learn more about incumbents with contested primaries in the 2021 state legislative elections.

Incumbents defeated in primaries

See also: Incumbents defeated in state legislative elections, 2021

In 2021, eight incumbents lost in primary elections.

Five Democratic incumbents were defeated, meaning 78.3% of Democratic incumbents who ran in a contested primary won.

Three Republican incumbents were defeated, meaning 82.4% of Republican incumbents who ran in a contested primary won.

The table below shows a state-by-state and national overview of incumbents defeated in primary elections broken down by party and chamber. The "Def." columns show the number of incumbents defeated. The "Seeking re-election" column shows the total number of incumbents who were seeking re-election at the time of the primary and the "In contested primaries" shows the number of incumbents who faced contested primaries. The "% def." columns are the percentage of incumbents out of those totals who lost in primaries.

Click [show] below to see a full list of state legislative incumbents defeated in primary elections sorted alphabetically by last name.

Full list of incumbents defeated in primary elections, 2021
Incumbent	Party	Chamber	Year incumbent took office	Winning candidate	Margin (votes)	Margin (percentage)
Lee Carter	Democratic	Virginia House of Delegates	2018	Michelle Maldonado	203	5.7
Nicholas Chiaravalloti	Democratic	New Jersey General Assembly	2016	Angela McKnight William Sampson	N/A[6]
BettyLou DeCroce	Republican	New Jersey General Assembly	2012	Jay Webber Christian Barranco	551	1.8
Serena DiMaso	Republican	New Jersey General Assembly	2018	Gerard Scharfenberger Victoria Flynn	2,059	8.4
Steve Heretick	Democratic	Virginia House of Delegates	2016	Nadarius Clark	154	3.4
Mark Levine	Democratic	Virginia House of Delegates	2016	Elizabeth Bennett-Parker	2,940	18.4
Charles Poindexter	Republican	Virginia House of Delegates	2008	Wren Williams	1,715	25.6
Ibraheem Samirah	Democratic	Virginia House of Delegates	2019	Irene Shin	224	3.4

Click here to learn more about incumbents defeated and incumbent turnover in the 2021 state legislative elections.

Overall primary competitiveness

See also: 2021 primary election competitiveness in state government

As shown on the charts below, there were fewer primaries overall—regardless of an incumbent's presence—in 2021 compared to recent election cycles. Compared to 2017, the most recent election cycle where the 220 seats up for election this year were on the ballot, there were seven fewer primaries in 2021. This decrease occurred entirely among Democrats: the number of Democratic primaries dropped from 34 in 2017 to 27 in 2021. In both 2017 and 2021, there were 17 Republican primaries.

Major party competition

See also: Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2021

This section analyzes major party competition in state legislative races. Major party competition exists when both a Democratic and a Republican candidate run for the same seat.

State legislative elections in 2021 saw a decade-high rate of major party competition. Of the 220 seats up for election, 204 (92.7%) had major party competition. One of the two major parties were likely to win the remaining 16 seats (7.3%) due to there being no major party competition.^[7][8]

This was the first election cycle since at least 2011 where over 90% of state legislative seats up for election nationwide were contested by both major parties, a statistic primarily driven by increased competitiveness in the Virginia House of Delegates: in 2011, 59% of the chamber's seats were uncontested compared to 9% in 2021.

In 2021:

The chart below shows the number of uncontested Democratic and Republican seats. Uncontested seats are those without major party competition and are likely to be won by the respective party. Contested seats are those with competition between both major parties. Use the links on the graphic to view state- or chamber-specific information or to switch between viewing figures as raw numbers or percentages of all seats up for election.

The table below shows a state-by-state and national overview of major party competition broken down by party and chamber. Figures under "Democratic" and "Republican" represent seats likely to be won by the respective party due to lack of major party competition with "Total" representing the sum. Figures under "Contested" represent the remaining seats with major party competition. Percentages are calculated as a percentage of all seats up for election.

Click here to learn more about major party competition in the 2021 state legislative elections.

See also

• State legislative elections, 2021
• Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 11, 2021
  • Open seats in state legislative elections, 2021
  • State legislative incumbents in contested primaries, 2021
  • 2021 primary election competitiveness in state government
  • Incumbents defeated in state legislative elections, 2021
  • Major party competition in state legislative elections, 2021

Footnotes

v • e Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections Background A "Competitiveness Index" for capturing competitiveness in state legislative elections • Creating an absolute measure for the "Competitiveness Index" in state legislative elections • Year-by-year comparison of results • Factors Affecting Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections 2023 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Impact of term limits • Open seats • Contested primaries • Incumbents in contested primaries • Major party competition • Incumbents defeated • Primary statistics 2022 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Impact of term limits • Open seats • Contested primaries • Incumbents in contested primaries • Major party competition • Incumbents defeated • Primary statistics 2021 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Major party competition • Open seats • Impact of term limits • Incumbents in contested primaries • Primary competitiveness • Incumbents defeated 2020 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Major party candidates with major party opposition • Open seats • Impact of term limits • Incumbents in contested primaries • Primary competitiveness • Incumbents defeated 2019 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Major party candidates with major party opposition • Open seats • Impact of term limits • Primary competitiveness • Incumbents defeated 2018 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Major party candidates with major party opposition • Open seats • Aftermath of the 2016 presidential election 2017 Primary competitiveness • Open seats • Incumbents with no primary challenger • Major party candidates with major party opposition • Incumbents defeated 2016 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Open Seats • Incumbents with no primary challenger • Major party candidates with major party opposition • Incumbents defeated 2015 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Open Seats • Incumbents with no primary challenger • Major party candidates with major party opposition • States Compared by Competitiveness • Incumbents defeated • Victorious challengers • List of candidates with no primary or general election opposition 2014 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Open Seats • Incumbents with no primary challenger • Major party candidates with major party opposition • States Compared by Competitiveness • Incumbents defeated • Victorious challengers • List of candidates with no primary or general election opposition 2013 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Open Seats • Incumbents with no primary challenger • Major party candidates with major party opposition • States Compared by Competitiveness • Incumbents with no primary or general election opposition • Incumbents defeated • Victorious challengers • List of candidates with no major party opposition 2012 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Open Seats • Incumbents with no primary challenger • Major party candidates with major party opposition • States Compared by Competitiveness • Incumbents with no primary or general election opposition • Incumbents defeated • Victorious challengers • List of candidates with no major party opposition • Impact of term limits 2011 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Open Seats • Incumbents with no primary challenger • Major party candidates with major party opposition • States Compared by Competitiveness • Incumbents with no primary or general election opposition • Incumbents defeated • Victorious challengers • List of candidates with no major party opposition • Impact of term limits 2010 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Open Seats •Incumbents with no primary challenger • Major party candidates with major party opposition • States Compared by Competitiveness • Incumbents with no primary or general election opposition • Incumbents defeated • Victorious challengers • List of candidates with no major party opposition • Impact of term limits 2009 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Open Seats • Incumbents with no primary challenger • Major party candidates with major party opposition 2007 Competitiveness Analysis Main Page • Open Seats • Incumbents with no primary challenger • Major party candidates with major party opposition

v • e State legislatures Legislatures Alabama (H, S) · Alaska (H, S) · Arizona (H, S) · Arkansas (H, S) · California (A, S) · Colorado (H, S) · Connecticut (H, S) · Delaware (H, S) · Florida (H, S) · Georgia (H, S) · Hawaii (H, S) · Idaho (H, S) · Illinois (H, S) · Indiana (H, S) · Iowa (H, S) · Kansas (H, S) · Kentucky (H, S) · Louisiana (H, S) · Maine (H, S) · Maryland (H, S) · Massachusetts (H, S) · Michigan (H, S) · Minnesota (H, S) · Mississippi (H, S) · Missouri (H, S) · Montana (H, S) · Nebraska · Nevada (A, S) · New Hampshire (H, S) · New Jersey (GA, S) · New Mexico (H, S) · New York (A, S) · North Carolina (H, S) · North Dakota (H, S) · Ohio (H, S) · Oklahoma (H, S) · Oregon (H, S) · Pennsylvania (H, S) · Rhode Island (H, S) · South Carolina (H, S) · South Dakota (H, S) · Tennessee (H, S) · Texas (H, S) · Utah (H, S) · Vermont (H, S) · Virginia (H, S) · Washington (H, S) · West Virginia (H, S) · Wisconsin (A, S) · Wyoming (H, S) 2024 State legislative elections (2024) • State legislative special elections (2024) • Primary dates and filing requirements • 2024 Session Dates 2023 State legislative elections (2023) • State legislative special elections (2023) • Primary dates and filing requirements • 2023 Session Dates Historical elections 2022 •  2021 • 2020 • 2019 • 2018 • 2017 • 2016 • 2015 • 2014 • 2013 • 2012 • 2011 • 2010 • 2009 • 2008 • 2007 • 2006 • 2005 • 2004 • 2003 • 2002 • 2001 • 2000 Features of state legislatures How vacancies are filled in state legislatures • States with a full-time legislature • State legislatures with term limits • Comparison of state legislative salaries • When state legislators assume office after a general election • Population represented by state legislators • State constitutional articles governing state legislatures • State legislative sessions • Resign-to-run law • State legislature candidate requirements by state • Official names of state legislatures • State legislative chambers that use multi-member districts • Factors Affecting Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections State senates Length of terms of state senators • State senators • Partisan composition of state senates • State senators sorted by year first elected State houses Length of terms of state representatives • State representatives • Partisan composition of state houses • State representatives sorted by year first elected Leadership positions President of the Senate • President Pro Tempore • Senate Majority Leader • Senate Minority Leader • House Majority Leader • House Minority Leader • State Speaker of the House