2018 Hawaii Senate elections
General	November 6, 2018
Primary	August 11, 2018

Democrats maintained their supemajority in the Hawaii State Senate in the 2018 elections, controlling 24 seats to Republicans' one. As of 2018, a party needed to hold 17 seats in the Senate to have a two-thirds supermajority.

A total of 13 seats out of the chamber's 25 seats were up for election in 2018.^[1] Heading into the election, Democrats held 25 seats and Republicans held zero.

Democrats maintained their trifecta in Hawaii by holding the state House, the state Senate, and the governor's office.

Hawaii state senators serve 2-4-4 terms, where senators serve one two-year term and two four-year terms each decade.

The Hawaii State Senate was one of 87 state legislative chambers holding elections in 2018. There are 99 chambers throughout the country. Prior to 2018, the Hawaii State Senate last held elections in 2016.

For more information about the Democratic primary, click here.
For more information about the Republican primary, click here.

2018 election competitiveness

Hawaii saw a drop in general election competition.

In Hawaii, the percentage of legislative districts with only one major party candidate running in the general election increased significantly in 2018 to about 66 percent of seats. This continued a trend from past cycles; in 2016, 52 percent of seats did not have general election competition, and from 2010 to 2014, 26 percent did not. In 42 of the 64 state legislative seats up for election in 2018, there was only one major party candidate running for election; 40 were expected to be won by a Democrat and two by a Republican.

Hawaii’s statewide filing deadline passed on June 5, and 64 state legislative seats are on the ballot in 2018. There were 154 candidates who filed: 113 Democrats, 28 Republicans, and 13 third-party candidates.

Fifty-four incumbents—50 Democrats and four Republicans—ran for re-election. Twenty-three Democratic incumbents faced opposition in the August 11 primary, but no Republican incumbents had primary challengers. In total, 38 seats required a primary. Thirty-four Democratic primaries and four Republican primaries were held.

Post-election analysis

See also: State legislative elections, 2018

The Democratic Party maintained supermajority status in both chambers of the Hawaii State Legislature in the 2018 election. In the state Senate, 13 out of 25 seats were up for election. The Democratic Hawaii State Senate supermajority was reduced from 25-0 to 24-1. One Democratic incumbent was defeated in the primary and no incumbents were defeated in the general election.

The Hawaii House of Representatives held elections for all 51 seats. The Democratic supermajority in the House of Representatives was maintained at 46-5. Two Democratic incumbents were defeated in the primary and no incumbents were defeated in the general election.

National background

On November 6, 2018, 87 of the nation's 99 state legislative chambers held regularly scheduled elections for 6,073 of 7,383 total seats, meaning that nearly 82 percent of all state legislative seats were up for election.

• Entering the 2018 election, Democrats held 42.6 percent, Republicans held 56.8 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.6 percent of the seats up for regular election.
• Following the 2018 election, Democrats held 47.3 percent, Republicans held 52.3 percent, and independents and other parties held 0.4 percent of the seats up for regular election.
• A total of 469 incumbents were defeated over the course of the election cycle, with roughly one-third of them defeated in the primary.

Want more information?

• Incumbents defeated in 2018's state legislative elections
• 2018 election analysis: Partisan balance of state legislative chambers
• 2018 election analysis: Number of state legislators by party
• 2018 election analysis: State legislative supermajorities

Candidates

See also: Statistics on state legislative candidates, 2018

General election candidates

Hawaii State Senate General Election 2018
Incumbents are marked with an (i) after their name. = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
Office	Democratic	Republican	Other
District 1	Kaiali'i Kahele (i)		Kimberly Arianoff (Libertarian Party)
District 3	Dru Kanuha		Mike Last (Libertarian Party)
District 4	The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected: Lorraine Inouye (i)
District 6	Rosalyn Baker (i)		Melissah Shishido (Green Party)
District 7	The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected: Jamie Kalani English (i)
District 12	Sharon Moriwaki	Lynn Barry Mariano
District 16	The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected: Breene Harimoto (i)
District 17	Clarence Nishihara (i)	Roger Clemente
District 18	Michelle Kidani (i)	Tony Solis
District 19	Matt LoPresti	Kurt Fevella
District 21	Maile Shimabukuro (i)	Diamond Garcia
District 23	The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected: Gil Riviere (i)
District 24	The general election was canceled and this candidate was elected: Jarrett Keohokalole

Primary candidates

Hawaii State Senate Primary Election 2018
Incumbents are marked with an (i) after their name. = candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
Office	Democratic	Republican	Other
District 1	Kaiali'i Kahele (i)		Libertarian Party Kimberly Arianoff
District 3	Brenda Ford Dru Kanuha		Libertarian Party Mike Last
District 4	Lorraine Inouye (i) Heather Kimball
District 6	Rosalyn Baker (i) Terez Amato		Green Party Melissah Shishido
District 7	Jamie Kalani English (i) Gayla Haliniak Michael Tengan
District 12	Brickwood Galuteria (i) Sharon Moriwaki	Lynn Barry Mariano
District 16	Breene Harimoto (i)
District 17	Clarence Nishihara (i)	Roger Clemente
District 18	Michelle Kidani (i)	Tony Solis Emil Svrcina
District 19	Veronica Duzon Matt LoPresti   Alicia Maluafiti	Kurt Fevella
District 21	Maile Shimabukuro (i) Tim Riley	Diamond Garcia
District 23	Gil Riviere (i) Clayton Hee
District 24	Ken Ito Jarrett Keohokalole

Margins of victory

See also: Margin of victory analysis for the 2018 state legislative elections

A margin of victory (MOV) analysis for the 2018 Hawaii State Senate races is presented in this section. MOV represents the percentage of total votes that separated the winner and the second-place finisher. For example, if the winner of a race received 47 percent of the vote and the second-place finisher received 45 percent of the vote, the MOV is 2 percent.

The table below presents the following figures for each party:

• Elections won
• Elections won by less than 10 percentage points
• Elections won without opposition
• Average margin of victory^[2]

Hawaii State Senate: 2018 Margin of Victory Analysis
Party	Elections won	Elections won by less than 10%	Unopposed elections	Average margin of victory[2]
Democratic	12	0	5	42.6%
Republican	1	1	0	.9%
Other	0	0	0	N/A
Total	13	1	5	21.8%

The margin of victory in each race is presented below. The list is sorted from the closest MOV to the largest (including unopposed races).

Hawaii State Senate: 2018 Margin of Victory by District
District	Winning Party	Losing Party	Margin of Victory
Hawaii State Senate District 19	Republican	Democratic	0.9%
Hawaii State Senate District 21	Democratic	Republican	17.8%
Hawaii State Senate District 18	Democratic	Republican	34.0%
Hawaii State Senate District 6	Democratic	Green Party	34.4%
Hawaii State Senate District 17	Democratic	Republican	37.7%
Hawaii State Senate District 12	Democratic	Republican	40.8%
Hawaii State Senate District 3	Democratic	Libertarian	58.7%
Hawaii State Senate District 1	Democratic	Libertarian	74.9%
Hawaii State Senate District 16	Democratic	None	Unopposed
Hawaii State Senate District 4	Democratic	None	Unopposed
Hawaii State Senate District 7	Democratic	None	Unopposed
Hawaii State Senate District 23	Democratic	None	Unopposed
Hawaii State Senate District 24	Democratic	None	Unopposed

Seats flipped

See also: State legislative seats that changed party control, 2018

The below map displays each seat in the Hawaii State Senate which changed partisan hands as a result of the 2018 elections, shaded according to the partisan affiliation of the winner in 2018. Hover over a shaded district for more information.

State legislative seats flipped in 2018, Hawaii State Senate
District	Incumbent	2018 winner	Direction of flip
Hawaii State Senate District 19	William Espero	Kurt Fevella	D to R

Incumbents retiring

Three incumbents did not run for re-election in 2018.^[3] Those incumbents were:

Name	Party	Current Office
Joshua Green	Democratic	Senate District 3
Jon Yoshimura	Democratic	Senate District 19
Jill Tokuda	Democratic	Senate District 24

Process to become a candidate

See also: Ballot access requirements for political candidates in Hawaii

See statutes: Chapter 12, Part I of the Hawaii Revised Statutes

In Hawaii, all candidates, regardless of partisan affiliation, must be nominated via the state's primary election before appearing on a general election ballot. In the primary election, a candidate may run as a nonpartisan or as a member of a political party. Nonpartisan candidates appear on a separate, nonpartisan ballot.^[4][5][6]

Nomination papers

To be placed on the ballot, a candidate must first file an application for nomination papers with the Hawaii Office of Elections. Nomination papers are available on the first business day in February in every even-numbered year.^[5][7]

Nomination papers must be signed by voters qualified to vote for the office being sought by the candidate. The number of signatures required is as follows:^[5][8]

• A candidate seeking the offices of United States senator, United States representative, governor or lieutenant governor must collect 25 signatures.
• A candidate seeking office in the Hawaii State Legislature must collect 15 signatures.

A signer may sign for only one candidate per office, unless there is more than one seat available for that office. When signing the nomination paper, the signer must provide the following information:^[5][9]

• his or her name
• his or her residential address
• his or her date of birth
• the last four digits of his or her Social Security number
• a statement verifying that he or she is qualified to vote for the candidate and that he or she nominates the candidate for the office specified

The following must also be included on the nomination paper:^[9]

• the residential address and county in which the candidate resides
• a sworn certification, by self-subscribing oath, by the candidate affirming that he or she is qualified for the office being sought and that all the information provided by the candidate on the nomination paper is correct
• a sworn certification, by self-subscribing oath, by a party candidate that the candidate is a member of the party whose affiliation is indicated on the nomination paper (this is only required of political party candidates)

Filing nomination papers

The deadline to file nomination papers is the first Tuesday in June. Candidates are advised to file papers early and to collect more than the minimum number of signatures. Exceptions or extensions on filing are prohibited, and once a nomination paper has been filed, a candidate cannot add more signatures.^[10][5]

A candidate who holds a public office other than that being sought must resign from his or her current office before filing to be a candidate for a new office. When filing nomination papers, the candidate must certify, by self-subscribing oath, that he or she has resigned from his or her former office.^[5]

At the time of filing, the candidate must designate what name he or she wishes to appear on the ballot. A candidate is allowed a maximum of 27 typed spaces on the ballot for names, which includes all letters, spaces, and punctuation marks. Titles are not permitted as part of a candidate's name.^[5]

Upon filing, the candidate must sign before a notary public a written oath of affirmation. In order to sign the oath, the candidate must provide a photo ID to the notary public.^[5][11]

Any challenges or objections to a candidate's nomination paper must be raised before the 60th day prior to the primary election. Challenges and objections may be raised by registered voters, political party officers who were named on the nomination paper, or by the state's chief elections officer.^[5][12]

Filing fees

Filing fees are due at time of filing and must be paid by cash, money order, or certified cashier’s check. Personal or campaign checks will not be accepted. Filing fees may be discounted if the candidate agrees to abide by the state’s voluntary campaign spending limits. Filing fees vary according to the office being sought and are detailed in the table below.^[5][10]

If a candidate cannot afford to pay the filing fee, he or she can instead file an affidavit attesting to that fact and submit a petition in lieu of the filing fee. The petition must be signed by one-half of 1 percent of the total number of registered voters as of the most recent general election in the district in which the candidate is seeking election.^[5][10]

Qualifying for the general election ballot

The party candidate who receives the most votes at the primary election advances to the general election.^[13]

A nonpartisan candidate can move on to the general election ballot in one of the following ways:^[6]

• by receiving at least 10 percent of the votes cast for the office
• by receiving a number of votes equal to the lowest number of votes received by a partisan candidate who was nominated in the primary election for the office

If more nonpartisan candidates gain access to the general election ballot than there are offices up for election, only the nonpartisan candidate who received the highest vote for the office will move on to the general election.^[6][13]

Qualifications

See also: State legislature candidate requirements by state

Salaries and per diem

See also: Comparison of state legislative salaries

When sworn in

See also: When state legislators assume office after a general election

Hawaii legislators assume office on the day they are elected in the general election.^[15]

Hawaii political history

See also: Partisan composition of state senates and State government trifectas

Party control

2018

In the 2018 elections, the Democratic majority in the Hawaii State Senate was reduced from 25-0 to 24-1.

2016

In 2016, Samuel Slom, the lone Republican state senator, lost his bid for re-election, giving the Democrats all 25 seats in the chamber. The Hawaii State Senate is the only legislative chamber in the country where one party holds every seat.

Prior to the 2010 elections, Republicans controlled two seats in the state Senate. After the Republicans lost one seat in 2010, Slom served as the chamber's sole Republican for six years.

Trifectas

A state government trifecta is a term that describes single-party government, when one political party holds the governor's office and has majorities in both chambers of the legislature in a state government. Democrats in Hawaii gained a state government trifecta as a result of the 2010 elections, when they took control of the governor's office for the first time since 2003. They previously held a trifecta from 1992 to the 2002 elections. From 1992 to 2017, the Democrats consistently controlled the state legislature.

Wave election analysis

See also: Wave elections (1918-2016)

The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant electoral gains. How many seats would Republicans have had to lose for the 2018 midterm election to be considered a wave election?

Ballotpedia examined the results of the 50 election cycles that occurred between 1918 and 2016—spanning from President Woodrow Wilson's (D) second midterm in 1918 to Donald Trump's (R) first presidential election in 2016. We define wave elections as the 20 percent of elections in that period resulting in the greatest seat swings against the president's party.

Applying this definition to state legislative elections, we found that Republicans needed to lose 494 seats for 2018 to qualify as a wave election.

The chart below shows the number of seats the president's party lost in the 10 state legislative waves from 1918 to 2016. Click here to read the full report.

Competitiveness

Every year, Ballotpedia uses official candidate lists from each state to examine the competitiveness of every state legislative race in the country. Nationally, there has been a steady decline in electoral competitiveness since 2010. Most notable is that the number of districts with general election competition has dropped by more than 10 percent.

Results from 2016

Below is Ballotpedia's 2016 competitiveness analysis. Click here to read the full study »

Historical context

See also: Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections: 1972-2014

Uncontested elections: In 2014, 32.8 percent of Americans lived in states with an uncontested state senate election. Similarly, 40.4 percent of Americans lived in states with uncontested house elections. Primary elections were uncontested even more frequently, with 61 percent of people living in states with no contested primaries. Uncontested elections often occur in locations that are so politically one-sided that the result of an election would be a foregone conclusion regardless of whether it was contested or not.

Open seats: In most cases, an incumbent will run for re-election, which decreases the number of open seats available. In 2014, 83 percent of the 6,057 seats up for election saw the incumbent running for re-election. The states that impose term limits on their legislatures typically see a higher percentage of open seats in a given year because a portion of incumbents in each election are forced to leave office. Overall, the number of open seats decreased from 2012 to 2014, dropping from 21.2 percent in 2012 to 17.0 percent in 2014.

Incumbent win rates: Ballotpedia's competitiveness analysis of elections between 1972 and 2014 documented the high propensity for incumbents to win re-election in state legislative elections. In fact, since 1972, the win rate for incumbents had not dropped below 90 percent—with the exception of 1974, when 88 percent of incumbents were re-elected to their seats. Perhaps most importantly, the win rate for incumbents generally increased over time. In 2014, 96.5 percent of incumbents were able to retain their seats. Common convention holds that incumbents are able to leverage their office to maintain their seat. However, the high incumbent win rate may actually be a result of incumbents being more likely to hold seats in districts that are considered safe for their party.

Marginal primaries: Often, competitiveness is measured by examining the rate of elections that have been won by amounts that are considered marginal (5 percent or less). During the 2014 election, 90.1 percent of primary and general election races were won by margins higher than 5 percent. Interestingly, it is usually the case that only one of the two races—primary or general—will be competitive at a time. This means that if a district's general election is competitive, typically one or more of the district's primaries were won by more than 5 percent. The reverse is also true: If a district sees a competitive primary, it is unlikely that the general election for that district will be won by less than 5 percent. Primaries often see very low voter turnout in comparison to general elections. In 2014, there were only 27 million voters for state legislative primaries, but approximately 107 million voters for the state legislative general elections.

Pivot Counties

See also: Pivot Counties by state

There are no Pivot Counties in Hawaii. Pivot Counties are counties that voted for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012 and for Donald Trump (R) in 2016. Altogether, the nation had 206 Pivot Counties, with most being concentrated in upper midwestern and northeastern states.

In the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton (D) won Hawaii with 62.2 percent of the vote. Donald Trump (R) received 30 percent. In presidential elections between 1960 and 2016, Hawaii voted Democratic 86.67 percent of the time and Republican 13.33 percent of the time. The only presidential elections from 1960 to 2016 where Hawaii voted for the Republican candidate were the elections in 1972 and 1984. Richard Nixon (R) and Ronald Reagan (R), respectively, won nearly every state in those elections.^[19] Hawaii voted Democratic in every presidential election from 2000 to 2016.

Presidential results by legislative district

The following table details results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections by state Senate districts in Hawaii. Click [show] to expand the table. The "Obama," "Romney," "Clinton," and "Trump" columns describe the percent of the vote each presidential candidate received in the district. The "2012 Margin" and "2016 Margin" columns describe the margin of victory between the two presidential candidates in those years. The "Party Control" column notes which party held that seat heading into the 2018 general election. Data on the results of the 2012 and 2016 presidential elections broken down by state legislative districts was compiled by Daily Kos.^[20][21]

See also

• Hawaii State Senate
• Hawaii State Legislature
• State legislative elections, 2018
• Hawaii state legislative Democratic primaries, 2018
• Hawaii state legislative Republican primaries, 2018

External links

Suggest a link

• Hawaii State Legislature

Footnotes

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