Ballotpedia's approach to primaries
This page discusses Ballotpedia's approach to covering primary elections.
When we cover a partisan primary, our job is to focus on the concerns of the people who will vote in that primary. When the primary is on the Republican side, that means gearing our coverage of the Republican primary to the concerns of that jurisdiction's Republican primary voters. When the primary is on the Democratic side, that means gearing our coverage of the Democratic primary to the concerns of that jurisdiction's Democratic primary voters.
Our observation is that media coverage often introduces general election themes during a partisan primary. When this happens, it is harder for partisan voters in party primaries to get the information that is their more specific concern as they prepare to vote.
A primary voter typically takes the following factors into consideration when voting:
- Policy differences between the candidates
- Electability
- Commitment to principles and policies
- Communicating a message to party leadership about what the party should care about and focus on
- Involvement of state and national influencers
Ballotpedia invites all candidates to tell our readers and subscribers more about you by participating in our survey. Click here for more information.
Policy differences that matter
Primary contests center around whatever policy differences may exist between the candidates in the primary. In our primary-voter-centric model it is also important to figure out which policy differences matter the most to the jurisdiction's primary voters.
For example, in a Republican primary, two candidates may differ about taxes and immigration. In covering the primary, it's important to know not just where the candidates disagree, but which disagreements matter the most, this year and in this jurisdiction, to this party's primary voters. It might be that the only policy disagreement that is politically relevant to a significant degree to the party's primary electorate is the policy disagreement around immigration.
Similarly, for a Democratic voter, while there might be significant differences between two Democratic primary candidates, it may be that in a given year, most Democratic Party voters in the jurisdiction care most intensely about criminal justice. If this is the case, our coverage would spend more time delineating the criminal justice differences between the candidates and comparatively less time delineating the other policy differences.
Electability
Primary voters typically take into consideration which of the candidates is, in their view, most likely to be able to win the general election.
Electability judgments tend to hinge around:
- Which candidates seem to be able to raise money in sufficient quantities to guarantee that they can be competitive in the general election
- Perceptions about the quality and experience of the political team surrounding the candidate (or about the apparent level of professionalism and competence of the campaign)
- Polling information about how each candidate of one party stacks up in a one-on-one contest with the most likely winner of the other party's primary, if available
Electability judgments are less relevant in jurisdictions that are regarded as safe for one party or the other. In a district that is safe for his or her party, the voter is more likely to cast a vote based on policy differences. Similarly, in a district that is safe for the other party, a voter is also more likely to cast a vote based on policy differences or to send a message to party leadership because electability isn't on the table.
Commitment to principles and policies
Primary voters care about whether the candidate of their party, if elected, will be a leader they can count on to assertively work for the principles they espoused and policies they supported during the election.
When primary voters doubt a particular primary candidate's commitment to the principles and policies they supported in the election, voters think that candidate cannot be trusted. Voters might make statements like:
- "He's a squish; he says all the right things but I don't believe he will really fight for them."
- "I don't trust her; she runs for the hills when there is any real fight."
Sending a message
Some primary voters are motivated to send a message to party leadership. They may use their vote in a primary to signal to party leadership that they want the party to go in a certain direction.
Imagine a three-way Democratic primary in a U.S. House district that is considered to be a safe Democratic district; i.e., the odds of the Democratic candidate winning the general election is extremely high, regardless of which Democrat makes it through the primary. One of the three candidates may stake out a very clear and compelling position on an issue that the other two candidates are ignoring, would prefer not to talk about, or actively disagree with. If a Democratic primary voter really likes that issue, and likes the position that this candidate is taking on it, the primary voter may choose to cast a vote for that candidate, even if they think he or she is extremely unlikely to win the primary, as a way of sending a signal to party leadership. The signal is, "I want to see our Democratic candidates talking like this and staking out this position on this issue. That's what would earn my continued loyalty. Let's have more of this."
Involvement of state and national influencers
Each party has its own set of influencers. These are the state or local grassroots organizations, pundits, thought leaders, donors, PACs, 527 groups, and 501(c)(4)s that can put money, muscle, and momentum behind a primary candidate. In particular, an endorsement by an influencer may be followed by tangible impacts including volunteer support and advertising.
In a contested Republican primary for U.S. Senate, Republican voters are likely to want to pay attention to how Republican or conservative influencers are weighing in. Is Club for Growth, Ending Spending, Senate Leadership Fund, and others getting involved? Similarly, in a contested Democratic primary, Democratic voters are likely to want to pay attention to how Democratic or progressive influencers are weighing in. Involvement by People For the American Way, Common Cause, Priorities USA Action, and other groups in primaries is notable for readers interested in Democratic politics.
Primary contests become particularly interesting when the pundits and organizations on one side of the aisle disagree with each other.
It can easily be the case that the top influencers in a contested party primary are people who aren't part of the mainstream media. If there's a radio talk show host in the jurisdiction with a sizeable and primarily Democratic audience who is using his or her radio platform to support one of the Democratic candidates and to criticize the other Democratic candidates in the primary, this is likely to have an influence on the outcome of the race. The fact that Republicans don't listen to this radio show, or that the mainstream media in this jurisdiction might look down on this progressive radio talk show host, is irrelevant when considering the influences on this Democratic primary. This hypothetical radio talk show host is an important influencer and their activities and pronouncements matter.
See also
| |||||||||||