Ballotpedia:How we decide when to call an election
Ballotpedia uses two standard criteria when deciding whether to project the outcome of an election:
1.) Type of office
2.) Battleground status
For the first criteria, we make a distinction between top-ballot offices and down-ballot offices. Top-ballot offices include U.S. President, U.S. Congress, and state governor. Down-ballot offices include all other elected state, local, and territorial positions.
For the second criteria, we make a distinction between battleground elections and standard elections. We define a battleground election as one that is particularly competitive or that may have a meaningful effect on the balance of power in government. All other elections receive the standard status.
Based on the above criteria, we take the following approaches when deciding whether to project an election outcome:
- Top-ballot office, battleground status: Ballotpedia will not project a winner for these elections until there is a consensus projection made by a pool of three national news outlets (CNN, NBC, and NYT). If some but not all of these outlets have called the election, or if all of the outlets have called the election but there is not a consensus on the outcome, Ballotpedia will refrain from projecting the election winner but will publish the calls made by each individual outlet until a consensus has been reached. Vote totals will be updated for these elections on a daily basis until the outcome has been projected, and then again once results have been certified.
- Top-ballot office, standard status: Ballotpedia will not project a winner for these elections until there is a consensus projection made by a pool of three national news outlets (CNN, NBC, and NYT). If some but not all of these outlets have called the election, or if all of the outlets have called the election but there is not a consensus on the outcome, Ballotpedia will refrain from projecting the election winner. Vote totals will be updated for these elections on a daily basis until the outcome has been projected, and then again once results have been certified.
- Down-ballot office, battleground status: Ballotpedia will not project a winner for these elections until there is a consensus projection made by two credible media outlets covering the election. If one but not both of these outlets have called the election, or if both outlets have called the election but there is not a consensus on the outcome, Ballotpedia will refrain from projecting the election winner. Vote totals will be updated for these elections once when the election has been called and again when the results have been certified.
- Down-ballot office, standard status: Ballotpedia will not project a winner for these elections until a credible media outlet covering the election has called it or at least 95% of precincts are fully reporting and the candidate has a winning margin of at least 5 percentage points or at least 95% of ballots are counted and the candidate has a winning margin of at least 5 percentage points. If an election does not meet either criteria, Ballotpedia will refrain from projecting its winner until certified results are released. Otherwise, vote totals will be updated for these elections once when the election has been called and again when the results have been certified.
For top-ballot offices, we selected three prominent news outlets that freely release their election calls. Note that some outlets not listed, such as the Associated Press, only release their full list of election projections to paid partners.
Battleground races and elections for U.S. President, U.S. Congress, governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, and secretary of state will be covered night-of by Ballotpedia. All other elections may be covered either night-of or the morning following the election.
If an election is uncontested, the candidate running unopposed will be marked as the projected winner following the election instead of being subjected to this criteria.
In the event that there is no consensus but certified results have been published by the relevant government election office, Ballotpedia will call the election in accordance with the certified results. However, if a candidate officially requests a recount or if the results are disputed in court, Ballotpedia will note above the vote totals that the election's outcome is pending the outcome of the lawsuit or recount.
Although the District of Columbia and the U.S. territories elect non-voting officials to the U.S. Congress, those offices are treated by this policy as down-ballot.
This policy is subject to change if new information emerges. Click here to read more about Ballotpedia's editorial approach to election coverage.
Frequently asked questions
How will Ballotpedia handle a lawsuit challenging election results?
Multiple types of lawsuits can be filed to challenge election results. These include challenging individual ballots, election administrator ballot tabulation practices, polling place behavior, and more. For the purposes of this policy, we are treating all lawsuits that could affect an election’s ultimate outcome the same way.
- If a candidate or other entity announces their interest in filing a lawsuit but has not done so, we will project the election winner according to our existing criteria.
- If a candidate or other entity has filed a lawsuit, we will note above the vote totals that the election's outcome is pending the outcome of the lawsuit until the legal process is completed.
- If a court has ruled on the lawsuit but there is the possibility of further appeal, we will continue to note above the vote totals that the election's outcome is pending unless both parties to the lawsuit have said they will not appeal.
How will Ballotpedia handle an election recount?
- If a candidate announces their interest in requesting a recount but has not done so, we will project the election winner according to our existing criteria.
- If a candidate officially requests a recount, we will note above the vote totals that the election's outcome is pending the outcome of the recount until it is completed.
- If the election qualifies for an automatic recount, we will note above the vote totals that the election's outcome is pending the outcome of the recount until it is completed.
What if a news outlet we cited that previously projected an election winner reverses their call?
Since that election would no longer meet our criteria to have a projected winner, Ballotpedia would similarly uncall the election until it meets our criteria once more.
Would Ballotpedia ever not accept the official results coming from a governmental body?
Yes, if there’s a recount or lawsuit in progress challenging those results. In those cases, we would follow the above policies. Otherwise, we would always accept the official results.
What if there’s a disagreement between different branches of government about the outcome of an election?
One of those entities ultimately must have the statutory power to determine the outcome of the election. This kind of dispute will result in a court case to determine who has that power, and we would follow the above policies for handling a lawsuit in that situation.
What if the election results get thrown out and a new election is called?
We will do the same and either refrain from projecting the election winner (or reverse an existing election call if one was made) and begin coverage of the new election.
What if an officeholder who loses re-election refuses to leave office?
We will update our coverage based on the existing statutory term start date for the office in question.
What if a legislature refuses to seat someone at the start of their new session?
We will refrain from treating the person as a current sitting member of the legislature unless and until they have been seated.
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