- Tado Juric is Assistant professor at the Catholic University of Croatia in Zagreb and Department of Demography at Fac... moreTado Juric is Assistant professor at the Catholic University of Croatia in Zagreb and Department of Demography at Faculty of Croatian Studies at University of Zagreb. He received his PhD at the Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Nürnberg-Erlangen, Germany.
Current projects are: - Forecasting migration and integration trends by using digital demography and big data - Emigration from Western Balkans and Croatia - Digital demography(Tado Juric is Assistant professor at the Catholic University of Croatia in Zagreb and Department of Demography at Faculty of Croatian Studies at University of Zagreb. He received his PhD at the Friedrich-Alexander-Universität Nürnberg-Erlangen, Germany. <br />Current projects are: - Forecasting migration and integration trends by using digital demography and big data - Emigration from Western Balkans and Croatia - Digital demography)edit
The countries of the Western Balkans, through population emigration, are losing their longterm potential for economic growth. Official data show that countries such as Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia have lost 181.034 of their citizens... more
The countries of the Western Balkans, through population emigration, are losing their longterm potential for economic growth. Official data show that countries such as Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia have lost 181.034 of their citizens in the period 2014-2019, who have received residence permits in other EU countries. With the emigration of the population, primarily young people in the age group 25-45, countries lose many times over. This category represents the largest consumer in a economy, which directly affects the gross domestic product. In addition, society loses by investing in education, which creates a direct economic loss due to emigration. Finally, emigration of this category limits the economic potential for long-term development of these countries. The hypothesis we want to prove in the paper is that the emigration of the population reduces the number of enrolled pupils in schools and universities, limits the long-term economic potential for growth and development and puts long-term pressure on the segment of social services. In this paper, in order to prove the hypothesis, we will analyze the level of economic activity through GDP growth during the period 2014-2019 in order to measure the achieved level of total product, and monitor the emigration of the population from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. We will also calculate the reduction in potential output measured through GDP as a result of labor emigration, and the negative effects on the education and social service sectors.
Key words: Emigration, GDP, Economy, Demography
Key words: Emigration, GDP, Economy, Demography
Research Interests:
The analysis of data obtained through Google search is gaining in importance in numerous social sciences. This paper will show that this approach can be very useful in public health, demography and forecasting tourist demand in Croatia.... more
The analysis of data obtained through Google search is gaining in importance in numerous social sciences. This paper will show that this approach can be very useful in public health, demography and forecasting tourist demand in Croatia. The need for such non-standard modelling approaches is necessary on the one hand due to the delay of official data and on the other hand, because there is great uncertainty regarding future trends. 1 We present the first studies of this type in Southeastern Europe. We have also developed a new approach and method by which data obtained through Google Trends (GT) can be standardized for comparison with official databases. Despite the many advantages of this approach, we consider the specifics and limitations of such data systems and warn in which cases the validity of interpretations and conclusions may be jeopardized.
In the first case study, we present the results of testing a method on the example of the Republic of Croatia that allows the detection and prediction of new cases of COVID 19 at an early stage. The main benefit of the proposed approach is reflected in the timely detection of new locations and hotspots of the pandemic. Such detection can redirect public health resources promptly and act preventively in the further spread of the infection, for example by introducing additional measures in a certain area. This method can also be used in demography for forecasting the birth rate. Using the method, we correctly predicted that in 2021 there will be between 12 and 14% fewer births in Croatia compared to previous years, ie 31,000 to 32,000, instead of the expected 36,000 - 37,000. In the third case study, we show that the use of GT for forecasting tourist demand is a useful method both at the state level and at the level of individual regions and cities in Croatia. Our results showed, and the official five months later confirmed, the recovery of Croatian tourism at the level of 15% better attendance than the previous season (2020).
Keywords: COVID-19; Google; Google Trends; Croatia; pandemic spread forecast, tourist season, forecasting, the birth rate.
In the first case study, we present the results of testing a method on the example of the Republic of Croatia that allows the detection and prediction of new cases of COVID 19 at an early stage. The main benefit of the proposed approach is reflected in the timely detection of new locations and hotspots of the pandemic. Such detection can redirect public health resources promptly and act preventively in the further spread of the infection, for example by introducing additional measures in a certain area. This method can also be used in demography for forecasting the birth rate. Using the method, we correctly predicted that in 2021 there will be between 12 and 14% fewer births in Croatia compared to previous years, ie 31,000 to 32,000, instead of the expected 36,000 - 37,000. In the third case study, we show that the use of GT for forecasting tourist demand is a useful method both at the state level and at the level of individual regions and cities in Croatia. Our results showed, and the official five months later confirmed, the recovery of Croatian tourism at the level of 15% better attendance than the previous season (2020).
Keywords: COVID-19; Google; Google Trends; Croatia; pandemic spread forecast, tourist season, forecasting, the birth rate.
Research Interests:
The demographic change in the EU will affect everybody and will lead to social and political tensions that can seriously threaten the foundations of liberal democracy if current politics continue. A combination of three main factors... more
The demographic change in the EU will affect everybody and will lead to social and political tensions that can seriously threaten the foundations of liberal democracy if current politics continue. A combination of three main factors creates the so-called “Emigration factory” in South-Eastern Europe: 1) The policy of extracting the youth labour force from the EU periphery to the EU centres as the key measure to recovering Western Europe population and economy, 2) the corruption as the most important push factor for contemporary emigration from Croatia and the Western Balkans, and 3) the understanding of capitalism by employers in SEE as a one-way process of profit without adequate rewarding of workers. Does Gastarbeiter’s history repeat itself? Are the EU migrations an interest-neutral and accidental social phenomenon? Is the EU going to become a neoliberal battlefield of a struggle for the human resource? What are the concrete solutions at the national and EU level? Why is the corruption index in Croatia and the Western Balkans growing with increased emigration, and what are the other consequences of emigration? Can the innovative approach to digital demography revolutionize our knowledge about migrations?
Research Interests:
Research Interests:
Procesi dugog trajanja u jugoistočnoj Europi su očito usmjereni na pomicanje hrvatskog naroda iz BiH prema srednjoj Europi. U BiH svjedočimo neupitno povijesnom odlasku hrvatskog naroda s ovih prostora, što smo projekcijama u našem... more
Procesi dugog trajanja u jugoistočnoj Europi su očito usmjereni na pomicanje hrvatskog naroda iz BiH prema srednjoj Europi. U BiH svjedočimo neupitno povijesnom odlasku hrvatskog naroda s ovih prostora, što smo projekcijama u našem istraživanju i dokazali. Naša studija pokazuje da su politički čimbenici u kombinaciji s manipulacijom vezanom uz europske integracije odigrali značajnu ulogu pri iseljavanju Hrvata iz BiH u Njemačku. U radu, osim doprinosa iseljavanju hrvatskih političkih elita, analiziramo ulogu Europske unije u procesu iseljavanja Hrvata iz BiH. Zanima nas tko odlazi, tko ostaje, a tko dolazi? Naime, zamjene teritorija i stanovništva nisu nepoznate u ljudskoj povijesti, štoviše, smatraju se, prema UN-u, jednim od tri prihvatljiva načina rješavanja sukoba. Stanovništvo koje se prazni u jednom prostoru, popunjava se drugim, htjeli mi to ili ne.
Abstract
Long-term processes in Southeast Europe are clearly geared towards moving the Croat people
from BiH towards Central Europe. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, we are witnessing the unquestionably historical departure of the Croat people from these areas, which we have demonstrated in the projections in our research. The research, on which this work is based, was conducted in Germany in 2017 and 2018 by a survey method and a semi-structured interview on a sample of 400 emigrants from BiH. The study shows that political factors in combination with manipulations related to European integration played a significant role in emigrating Croats from BiH to Germany. In addition to analyzing the contribution of Croat political elites to the emigration, the paper also analyzes the role of the European Union in the process of emigrating Croats from BiH. We are interested in who is leaving, who remains, and who is coming? Replacements of territory and population are not unknown in human history, moreover, they are considered, according to the UN, one of the three acceptable ways to resolve the conflict. The population that is leaving one space is replaced with another, whether we want it or not.
Abstract
Long-term processes in Southeast Europe are clearly geared towards moving the Croat people
from BiH towards Central Europe. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, we are witnessing the unquestionably historical departure of the Croat people from these areas, which we have demonstrated in the projections in our research. The research, on which this work is based, was conducted in Germany in 2017 and 2018 by a survey method and a semi-structured interview on a sample of 400 emigrants from BiH. The study shows that political factors in combination with manipulations related to European integration played a significant role in emigrating Croats from BiH to Germany. In addition to analyzing the contribution of Croat political elites to the emigration, the paper also analyzes the role of the European Union in the process of emigrating Croats from BiH. We are interested in who is leaving, who remains, and who is coming? Replacements of territory and population are not unknown in human history, moreover, they are considered, according to the UN, one of the three acceptable ways to resolve the conflict. The population that is leaving one space is replaced with another, whether we want it or not.
Research Interests:
U knjizi su predstavljeni rezultati prvoga znanstvenog istraživanja uzroka i posljedica te obilježja novijih iseljavanja Hrvata u Saveznu Republiku Njemačku. Istraživanje je provedeno u Njemačkoj među hrvatskim iseljenicima koji su se... more
U knjizi su predstavljeni rezultati prvoga znanstvenog istraživanja uzroka i posljedica te obilježja novijih iseljavanja Hrvata u Saveznu Republiku Njemačku. Istraživanje je provedeno u Njemačkoj među hrvatskim iseljenicima koji su se iselili u razdoblju od priključenja Hrvatske EU-u, i to na uzorku od 1200 ispitanika.
Prema percepciji samih iseljenika, glavni motivi za iseljavanje nisu ekonomski. Analiza stajališta iseljenika pokazala je kako hrvatski iseljenici imaju predodžbu da u Hrvatskoj nisu institucionalizirane vrijednosti radne etike i uopće poštenja te smatraju da se hrvatsko društvo moralno slomilo.
Hrvati se stoga iseljavaju zbog nepravde, a ne zbog siromaštva. Naša istraživanja pokazuju jasnu vezu između političke etike, slabih institucija i iseljavanja. Nemoral političkih elita, pravna nesigurnost, nepotizam i korupcija svakako su među glavnim razlozima za iseljavanje. Iseljeni Hrvati svojim odlaskom nedvojbeno kažnjavaju loše politike i političare, no – ne htijući to – kažnjavaju zapravo i sve koji ostaju.
Dok se Hrvatska socijalno, moralno i gospodarski lomi, u populacijski oslabljenoj Njemačkoj Hrvati su i više nego dobrodošli jer je cijena njihova uključivanja u njemačko društvo vrlo mala ili nikakva što pak nije slučaj s useljenicima iz drugih kultura. Sa svakim iseljenim Hrvatom Hrvatska ne gubi samo svoj socijalni kapital, mogućnost biološke obnove društva i kapital uložen u njihovo obrazovanje nego nastaje i visok trošak integracije useljenika koji će doći na njihovo mjesto.
Migracije nikada nisu interesno neutralne i ne događaju se slučajno, nego se proizvode. Dok Njemačka usisava Hrvate, odgovor je hrvatske države slab ili gotovo nikakav. U BiH svjedočimo vrlo vjerojatno povijesnom odlasku Hrvata nakon kojega više nema povratka. Očito je riječ o strateškom pomicanju hrvatskog naroda iz etnički hrvatskih krajeva u etnički njemačke krajeve. Svjedočimo zapravo velikoj seobi hrvatskog naroda.
Prema percepciji samih iseljenika, glavni motivi za iseljavanje nisu ekonomski. Analiza stajališta iseljenika pokazala je kako hrvatski iseljenici imaju predodžbu da u Hrvatskoj nisu institucionalizirane vrijednosti radne etike i uopće poštenja te smatraju da se hrvatsko društvo moralno slomilo.
Hrvati se stoga iseljavaju zbog nepravde, a ne zbog siromaštva. Naša istraživanja pokazuju jasnu vezu između političke etike, slabih institucija i iseljavanja. Nemoral političkih elita, pravna nesigurnost, nepotizam i korupcija svakako su među glavnim razlozima za iseljavanje. Iseljeni Hrvati svojim odlaskom nedvojbeno kažnjavaju loše politike i političare, no – ne htijući to – kažnjavaju zapravo i sve koji ostaju.
Dok se Hrvatska socijalno, moralno i gospodarski lomi, u populacijski oslabljenoj Njemačkoj Hrvati su i više nego dobrodošli jer je cijena njihova uključivanja u njemačko društvo vrlo mala ili nikakva što pak nije slučaj s useljenicima iz drugih kultura. Sa svakim iseljenim Hrvatom Hrvatska ne gubi samo svoj socijalni kapital, mogućnost biološke obnove društva i kapital uložen u njihovo obrazovanje nego nastaje i visok trošak integracije useljenika koji će doći na njihovo mjesto.
Migracije nikada nisu interesno neutralne i ne događaju se slučajno, nego se proizvode. Dok Njemačka usisava Hrvate, odgovor je hrvatske države slab ili gotovo nikakav. U BiH svjedočimo vrlo vjerojatno povijesnom odlasku Hrvata nakon kojega više nema povratka. Očito je riječ o strateškom pomicanju hrvatskog naroda iz etnički hrvatskih krajeva u etnički njemačke krajeve. Svjedočimo zapravo velikoj seobi hrvatskog naroda.
Research Interests:
(Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia and Croatia on the road to EU membership - comparative analysis of the development of statehood and the process of Europeanization)
Research Interests:
Die Erfüllung der „EU-Standards“ gestaltet sich in der multiethnischen Region Westbalkan weitaus schwieriger als das der Fall bei anderen EU- Erweiterungsrunden war. Den Grund dafür sieht diese Arbeit in der Erkenntnis, dass es die... more
Die Erfüllung der „EU-Standards“ gestaltet sich in der multiethnischen Region Westbalkan weitaus schwieriger als das der Fall bei anderen EU- Erweiterungsrunden war. Den Grund dafür sieht diese Arbeit in der Erkenntnis, dass es die multiethnischen Staaten erheblich schwerer haben, sich als Demokratien zu konsolidieren, als die ethnisch homogenen Staaten. Will die EU die Region dauerhaft stabilisieren und „europäisieren“, muss sie ihre Position verlassen, welche „das Paradigma der multiethnischen Lösungen“ um jeden Preis verteidigt und die konsequente Anwendung des Prinzips der Selbstbestimmung der Völker in der Region erlauben.
- - - - ENGL.
The fulfillment of “EU standards” in the multi- ethnic Western Balkans region is much more difficult than it was in other EU enlargement rounds. The reason for this is that multi-ethnic states have much greater difficulties than ethnically homogenous states to consolidate themselves as democracies. If the EU wants to permanently stabilize and “Europeanize” the region, it must give up ist position of defending the preservation of existing “multi-ethnic paradigm” at all cost and allow the consistent application of the principle of self-determination of peoples in the region. - - -
- - - - ENGL.
The fulfillment of “EU standards” in the multi- ethnic Western Balkans region is much more difficult than it was in other EU enlargement rounds. The reason for this is that multi-ethnic states have much greater difficulties than ethnically homogenous states to consolidate themselves as democracies. If the EU wants to permanently stabilize and “Europeanize” the region, it must give up ist position of defending the preservation of existing “multi-ethnic paradigm” at all cost and allow the consistent application of the principle of self-determination of peoples in the region. - - -
Research Interests:
NASTAVNE TEME KROZ POGLAVLJA I. NAŠA DOMOVINA REPUBLIKA HRVATSKA 1. Simboli domovine 2. Zagreb – glavni grad Hrvatske 3. Stanovništvo Republike Hrvatske 4. Republika Hrvatska i zemlje u okruženju II. PROŠLOST DOMOVINE HRVATSKE 1.... more
NASTAVNE TEME KROZ POGLAVLJA I. NAŠA DOMOVINA REPUBLIKA HRVATSKA 1. Simboli domovine 2. Zagreb – glavni grad Hrvatske 3. Stanovništvo Republike Hrvatske 4. Republika Hrvatska i zemlje u okruženju II. PROŠLOST DOMOVINE HRVATSKE 1. Doseljenje Hrvata 2. Doba hrvatskih kraljeva 3. Hrvatska od 15. do 19. stoljeća 4. Borba za materinski hrvatski jezik 5. Hrvatska u 20. stoljeću 6. Domovinski rat 7. Samostalna Republika Hrvatska III. GEOGRAFSKA I PRIRODNA OBILJEŽJA HRVATSKE 1. Hrvatske regije 2. Rijeke i jezera Hrvatske 3. Nacionalni parkovi i parkovi prirode IV. PRIMORSKI KRAJEVI REPUBLIKE HRVATSKE 1. Osnovna obilježja primorskih krajeva 2. Naselja i gospodarstvo primorskih krajeva 3. Prirodne, povijesne i kulturne znamenitosti primorskih krajeva V. NIZINSKI KRAJEVI REPUBLIKE HRVATSKE 1. Osnovna obilježja nizinskih krajeva 2. Naselja i gospodarstvo nizinskih krajeva 3. Prirodne, povijesne i kulturne znamenitosti nizinskih krajeva VI. GORSKI KRAJEVI REPUBLIKE HRVATSKE 1. Osnovna obilježja gorskih krajeva 2. Naselja i gospodarstvo gorskih krajeva 3. Prirodne, povijesne i kulturne znamenitosti gorskih krajeva VII. HRVATI IZVAN GRANICA HRVATSKE 1. Iseljena Hrvatska 2. Hrvati Bosne i Hercegovine Nastavne teme sadržajno odgovaraju na zadane operativne ciljeve Kurikuluma hrvatske nastave u inozemstvu. METODIČKO OBLIKOVANJE POLAZNOG TEKSTA NASTAVNE TEME / NASTAVNE JEDINICE Obrada svakog novog teksta (nastavnog sadržaja) započinje metodički primjerenim motivacijskim pitanjem te odgovarajućom fotografijom ili slikom koja učeniku pomaže odgovoriti na postavljeno pitanje. Za učenike koji slabije poznaju hrvatski jezik slikovni sadržaj je vrlo važan, a ponekad i neophodan za razumijevanje. (Primjer: Koja je rijeka na granici između Hrvatske i Bosne i Hercegovine? Ispod pitanja je karta na kojoj je jasno vidljiva granica. 21. str.) Odgovor na motivacijsko pitanje potiče uvodni razgovor kojega će učitelj, na temelju znanja i iskustva učenika, usmjeravati prema sadržaju glavnog dijela teksta. Glavni dio teksta napisan je jasnim, ne predugim rečenicama. Ključni pojmovi istaknuti su podebljanim slovima, a na kraju teksta su izdvojeni i prevedeni na njemački jezik. Bilingvalnim učenicima i učenicima koji su slabiji govornici hrvatskoga jezika, a kojima je knjiga i namijenjena, prijevod ključnih riječi je značajna pomoć za razumijevanje sadržaja teksta. U tekstove koji obrađuju povijesne sadržaje uspješno su integrirane različite anegdote, legende ili priče koje približavaju sadržaje na zanimljiv način. Ostvarena je integracija predloženih književnih tekstova nastavnog predmeta hrvatski jezik te sadržajima povezanima s povijesti hrvatskoga jezika. Vidljivo je i integriranje područja hrvatske likovne i glazbene umjetnosti. Glazbena umjetnost prezentirana je učenicima kroz tekst i osnovne podatke o hrvatskoj himni, kroz tekst pjesme Moja domovina, Hrvatskog Band Aida, kroz isticanje tambure kao hrvatskog tradicijskog glazbala na 111. str. te kroz ključne pojmove bećarac, ganga, Barokne večeri u Varaždinu na 111. i 142. str. itd.) Sve priložene fotografije su dobre kvalitete te potpisane, što poboljšava razumijevanje obrađivanog sadržaja. Fotografije i crteže autor koristi i kod ponavljanja i vježbanja naučenog nastavnog sadržaja. RADNA BILJEŽNICA Nakon dijela koji obrađuje nove sadržaje slijede zadatci (integrirana radna bilježnica). Zadatci su napisani i posloženi prema metodičkim pravilima. Posloženi su od poznatog prema nepoznatom, od lakšeg prema zahtjevnijem, od jednostavnijeg prema složenijem. Grupirani su po tipovima i sadržaju. Zadatci su napisani tako da mogu provjeriti različite razine učenikovog znanja. Pitanja ne sugeriraju odgovor. Napisani su ispravno: gramatički, stilski i pravopisno. Ne očekuju ekstremne odgovore niti fraze formulirane u udžbeniku (polaznom tekstu.) Predviđeni odgovori su nedvosmisleni.
Research Interests:
Als die Hauptursache für die späte Einbindung Kroatiens in die EU sind die kriegerischen Ereignisse der 1990er zu identifizieren, deren direkte Folge die verspätete Transformation des Lan-des war. Der Fortschritt Kroatiens bestätigt, dass... more
Als die Hauptursache für die späte Einbindung Kroatiens in die EU sind die kriegerischen Ereignisse der 1990er zu identifizieren, deren direkte Folge die verspätete Transformation des Lan-des war. Der Fortschritt Kroatiens bestätigt, dass der Stabilisierungs- und Assoziierungsprozess für den westlichen Balkan ei-nen Weg darstellt, der tatsächlich zum EU-Beitritt führen kann, jedoch dass diese Entwicklung auch nicht mit der EU-Mitgliedschaft unbedingt enden muss, wie das die Entwicklungen in BiH und Serbien bestätigen. Die Entwicklungen in Kroatien zeigen deutlich, dass ein Staat mit homogener Gesellschaft und klarem Grenzen funktionsfähiger ist und auch EU-tauglicher ist als multiethnische Staaten.65 Wenn schon diese Behauptung nicht auf das ganze Europa anwendbar ist, ist es für Westbalkan auf jeden Fall zutreffend.
KAKO JE HRVATSKA OD ISELJENIČKE POSTALA USELJENIČKA ZEMLJA
Research Interests:
This study was created due to the need to predict the migration flows of refugees from Ukraine to the EU in the absence of official data. We present a descriptive analysis of Big Data sources, which are helpful in determining, as well as... more
This study was created due to the need to predict the migration flows of refugees from Ukraine to the EU in the absence of official data. We present a descriptive analysis of Big Data sources, which are helpful in determining, as well as for estimating and forecasting refuge emigration flows from Ukraine and help crisis managers. The objective of this study was to test the usefulness of Big Data and Google Trends (GT)
indexes to predict further forced migration from Ukraine to the EU (mainly to Germany).
The primary methodological concept of our approach is to monitor the digital trace of Internet searches in Ukrainian, Russian and English with the GT analytical tool. The control mechanism for testing this sort of Big Data was performed by comparing those insights with the official databases from UNHCR and national governments, which were available two months later. All tested migration-related search queries (20) about
emigration planning from Ukraine show a positive linear association between the Google index and data from official UNHCR statistics; R2 = 0.1211 for searches in Russian and R2 = 0.1831 for searches in Ukrainian. Increase in migration-related search activities in Ukraine, such as “граница” (Rus. border), кордону (Ukr. border); “Польща” (Poland); “Германия” (Rus. Germany), “Німеччина” (Ukr. Germany) and
“Угорщина” and “Венгрия” (Hungary) correlate strongly with officially UNHCR data for externally displaced persons from Ukraine. The results show that one-fourth of all refugees will cross into Germany. According to Big Data insights, the estimated number of expected refugees until July 2022 is 5.9 Million refugees and mid-2023 Germany can
expect 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees.
indexes to predict further forced migration from Ukraine to the EU (mainly to Germany).
The primary methodological concept of our approach is to monitor the digital trace of Internet searches in Ukrainian, Russian and English with the GT analytical tool. The control mechanism for testing this sort of Big Data was performed by comparing those insights with the official databases from UNHCR and national governments, which were available two months later. All tested migration-related search queries (20) about
emigration planning from Ukraine show a positive linear association between the Google index and data from official UNHCR statistics; R2 = 0.1211 for searches in Russian and R2 = 0.1831 for searches in Ukrainian. Increase in migration-related search activities in Ukraine, such as “граница” (Rus. border), кордону (Ukr. border); “Польща” (Poland); “Германия” (Rus. Germany), “Німеччина” (Ukr. Germany) and
“Угорщина” and “Венгрия” (Hungary) correlate strongly with officially UNHCR data for externally displaced persons from Ukraine. The results show that one-fourth of all refugees will cross into Germany. According to Big Data insights, the estimated number of expected refugees until July 2022 is 5.9 Million refugees and mid-2023 Germany can
expect 1.5 million Ukrainian refugees.
Research Interests:
At the time of the COVID-19 epidemic, it is useful to look at what lessons (digital) history can give us about the past pandemics and dealing with them. We show that the Google Ngram Viewer (GNV) can discover hidden patterns in history... more
At the time of the COVID-19 epidemic, it is useful to look at what lessons (digital) history can give us about the past pandemics and dealing with them. We show that the Google Ngram Viewer (GNV) can discover hidden patterns in history (of pandemics). Our study is searching for evidence that the COVID-19 is not a unique phenomenon in human history. By using the approach of Digital Humanities, we are testing the hypothesis that the flu-like illness that caused loss of taste and smell in the late 19th century (Russian flu) was caused by a coronavirus. This approach could give hints on how the COVID-19 might develop in the following years. The objective was to calculate the ratio of increasing to decreasing trends in the changes in frequencies of the selected words representing symptoms of the Russian flu and COVID-19. The primary methodological concept of our approach is to analyse the ratio of increasing to decreasing trends in the changes in frequencies of the selected words representing symptoms of the Russian flu and COVID-19 with the Google NGram analytical tool. Initially, keywords were chosen that are specific and common for the Russian flu and COVID-19. We show the graphic display on the Y-axis what percentage of words in the selected corpus of books (collective memory) over the years (X-axis) make up the word. To standardise the data, we requested the data from 1800 to 2019 in English, German and Russian (to 2012) book corpora and focused on the ten years before, during and after the outbreak of the Russian flu. We compared this frequency index with “non-epidemic periods” to test the model’s analytical potential and prove the significance of the results. The limitation of this study is that it is difficult to formulate a hypothesis for a microbiological aetiology of a pandemic that occurred 133 years ago based on symptoms. There are indications that COVID-19 is not unique because the Russian flu (1889-1891) might be a coronavirus infection. The most crucial observation of similarities between the Russian flu pandemic and COVID-19 is the loss of smell and taste (anosmia and ageusia). Results show that all the three analysed book corpora (including newspapers and magazines) show the increase in the mention of the symptoms “loss of smell” and “loss of taste” during the Russian flu (1889-1891), which are today undoubtedly proven to be key symptoms of COVID-19. The mention of symptoms and the pandemic-related words fell sharply after the pandemic stopped. According to our analysis of historical records with the approach of GNV, 1) the ‘natural’ length of a pandemic is two to five years; 2) the pandemic stops on its own; 3) the viruses weaken over time; 4) the so-called “herd immunity” is not necessary to stop the pandemic; 5) Our approach has shown that a significant crisis does not need to occur after the COVID-19 pandemic. According to our study, GNV clearly shows the influence that social changes have on word frequency. The results of this study open a discussion on the usefulness of the Google Ngram insights possibilities into past socio-cultural development, i.e. epidemics and pandemics that can serve as lessons for today. However, this method has severe limitations and can be useful only under cautious handling and testing. Despite the numerous indications, we are aware that this thesis still cannot be confirmed and that it requires further historical and medical research.
Research Interests:
Prema posljednjim procjenama UN-a Hrvatska i države Zapadnog Balkana gube populaciju takvim intenzitetom da su postali demografski najugroženije područje svijeta. Stoga, iseljavanje i demografija, a ne klimatske promjene i COVID-19,... more
Prema posljednjim procjenama UN-a Hrvatska i države Zapadnog Balkana gube populaciju takvim intenzitetom da su postali demografski najugroženije područje svijeta.
Stoga, iseljavanje i demografija, a ne klimatske promjene i COVID-19, ključan su problem Hrvatske i zemalja Zapadnog Balkana.
Rad se temelji na analizi dostupnih primarnih i sekundarnih izvora podataka domaćih i međunarodnih institucija. Podaci za BiH pokazuju da neto smanjenje radne snage u razdoblju od 2014. do 2018. iznosi 113.000 radnika ili 10 % ukupne radne snage. Broj zaposlenih u 2018. čini 81,63 % ukupne radne snage i brzo se smanjuje, smanjujući potencijalnu poreznu osnovicu što će negativno utjecati na financiranje
svih državnih potreba. Ukupna radna snaga u kategoriji 50+ čini 41,1 % svih radnika, dok se od 2014. broj umirovljenika u BiH rapidno povećava. U razdoblju 2014./2015.‒ 2019./2020. broj učenika u osnovnim školama smanjio se za 23.024 ili 7,76 %, u srednjim školama za 30.948 ili 21,51 %, dok se broj studenata smanjio za 29.373 ili 26,88 %.
U razdoblju 2014. ‒ 2019. broj stanovnika Srbije smanjio se za 208.908. Podaci Eurostata za razdoblje 2014. ‒ 2019. pokazuju da je EU izdala 248.759 prvih dozvola za građane Srbije. Broj učenika u osnovnim školama smanjio se za 54.325 (9,46 % ), a u srednjim školama za 19.373 (7,20 %).
Hrvatska ima gotovo isti broj umirovljenika (1.228.020, HZMO) i nezaposlenih (309.000), kao i zaposlenih (1.566.000). U razdoblju od ulaska u EU hrvatski obrazovni sustav izgubio je 10 % svih učenika (preko 50.000 učenika), dok je u mirovinski sustav pristiglo preko 50.000 novih korisnika. Danas bi Hrvatska imala 10 % više učenika da nije bilo intenzivnog iseljavanja nakon ulaska u EU, a posljedično populacija bi
bila znatno mlađa. Od 2013. do 2020. iz Hrvatske je u Njemačku iselilo 52.000 djece.
Hipoteza da postoji izravna veza između iseljavanja i smanjenja broja učenika i studenata, odnosno da rapidno smanjenje broja učenika nije povezano s prirodnom depopulacijom, dokazana je u sva tri slučaja.
Iseljavanje stanovništva iz Hrvatske i zemalja Zapadnog Balkana i gubitak ljudskog kapitala ključni je ograničavajući faktor u procesu konvergencije s prosjekom EU-a. Uslijed iseljavanja Hrvatska, BiH i Srbija će u narednih pet godina doseći granicu svojih proizvodnih mogućnosti, a budući gospodarski napredak bit će ograničen i nedovoljan za financiranje svih državnih potreba.
Ključne riječi: (1) iseljavanje iz Hrvatske, (2) iseljavanje iz Srbije, (3) iseljavanje iz
BiH, (4) Zapadni Balkan, (5) posljedice iseljavanja, (6) radna snaga, (7) učenici
Stoga, iseljavanje i demografija, a ne klimatske promjene i COVID-19, ključan su problem Hrvatske i zemalja Zapadnog Balkana.
Rad se temelji na analizi dostupnih primarnih i sekundarnih izvora podataka domaćih i međunarodnih institucija. Podaci za BiH pokazuju da neto smanjenje radne snage u razdoblju od 2014. do 2018. iznosi 113.000 radnika ili 10 % ukupne radne snage. Broj zaposlenih u 2018. čini 81,63 % ukupne radne snage i brzo se smanjuje, smanjujući potencijalnu poreznu osnovicu što će negativno utjecati na financiranje
svih državnih potreba. Ukupna radna snaga u kategoriji 50+ čini 41,1 % svih radnika, dok se od 2014. broj umirovljenika u BiH rapidno povećava. U razdoblju 2014./2015.‒ 2019./2020. broj učenika u osnovnim školama smanjio se za 23.024 ili 7,76 %, u srednjim školama za 30.948 ili 21,51 %, dok se broj studenata smanjio za 29.373 ili 26,88 %.
U razdoblju 2014. ‒ 2019. broj stanovnika Srbije smanjio se za 208.908. Podaci Eurostata za razdoblje 2014. ‒ 2019. pokazuju da je EU izdala 248.759 prvih dozvola za građane Srbije. Broj učenika u osnovnim školama smanjio se za 54.325 (9,46 % ), a u srednjim školama za 19.373 (7,20 %).
Hrvatska ima gotovo isti broj umirovljenika (1.228.020, HZMO) i nezaposlenih (309.000), kao i zaposlenih (1.566.000). U razdoblju od ulaska u EU hrvatski obrazovni sustav izgubio je 10 % svih učenika (preko 50.000 učenika), dok je u mirovinski sustav pristiglo preko 50.000 novih korisnika. Danas bi Hrvatska imala 10 % više učenika da nije bilo intenzivnog iseljavanja nakon ulaska u EU, a posljedično populacija bi
bila znatno mlađa. Od 2013. do 2020. iz Hrvatske je u Njemačku iselilo 52.000 djece.
Hipoteza da postoji izravna veza između iseljavanja i smanjenja broja učenika i studenata, odnosno da rapidno smanjenje broja učenika nije povezano s prirodnom depopulacijom, dokazana je u sva tri slučaja.
Iseljavanje stanovništva iz Hrvatske i zemalja Zapadnog Balkana i gubitak ljudskog kapitala ključni je ograničavajući faktor u procesu konvergencije s prosjekom EU-a. Uslijed iseljavanja Hrvatska, BiH i Srbija će u narednih pet godina doseći granicu svojih proizvodnih mogućnosti, a budući gospodarski napredak bit će ograničen i nedovoljan za financiranje svih državnih potreba.
Ključne riječi: (1) iseljavanje iz Hrvatske, (2) iseljavanje iz Srbije, (3) iseljavanje iz
BiH, (4) Zapadni Balkan, (5) posljedice iseljavanja, (6) radna snaga, (7) učenici
Research Interests:
Background: This paper shows that the tools of digital demography, such as Google Trends, can be used for determining, estimating, and predicting the migration of health care workers (HWs), in this case, from Croatia and the Western... more
Background: This paper shows that the tools of digital demography, such as Google Trends, can be used for determining, estimating, and predicting the migration of health care workers (HWs), in this case, from Croatia and the Western Balkans (WB) to Germany and Austria. Objective: This study aims to test the usefulness of Google Trends indexes to forecast HW migration from Croatia and the WB to Germany and Austria. The paper analyzes recent trends in HW mobility in Europe and focuses specifically on mobility patterns among medical doctors and nurses using digital demography. Without increased emigration in the last 10 years, Croatia and the WB would have 50% more HWs today, and this staff is now crucial in the fight against a pandemic. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic contributed to the increase in emigration. Methods: A particular problem in analyzing the emigration of HCWs from Croatia and the WB is that there is no system for monitoring this process. Official data is up to 3 years late and exists only for persons deregistered from the state system. Furthermore, during the pandemic, the "normal" ways of data collection are simply too slow. The primary methodological concept of our approach is to monitor the digital trace of language searches with the Google Trends analytical tool. To standardize the data, we requested the data from January 2010 to December 2020 and divided the keyword frequency for each migration-related query. We compared this search frequency index with official statistics to prove the significance of the results and correlations, and test the model's predictive potential. Results: All tested migration-related search queries, which indicate HCWs' emigration planning, showed a positive linear association between Google index and data from official statistics (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development: Serbia R 2 =0.3381, Bosnia and Herzegovina [B&H] R 2 =0.2722, Croatia R 2 =0.4515). Migration-related search activities such as "job application + nurses" from Croatia correlate strongly with official German data for emigrated HWs from Croatia, Serbia, and B&H. Decreases in Google searches were correlated with the decrease in the emigration of HWs. Thus, this method allows reliable forecasts for the future. Conclusions: This paper highlights that the World Health Organization's list of countries with HWs shortages should be updated to include Croatia and the countries from the WB. The issue of the European Union drawing HWs from the EU periphery (Croatia) and nearby countries (B&H, Serbia) clearly shows a clash between the EU freedom of movement and the right to health care and a need to ensure a health care workforce in all European regions. Understanding why HWs emigrate from Croatia and the WB, and the consequences of this process are crucial to enabling state agencies and governments to develop optimal intervention strategies to retain medical staff. The benefit of this method is reliable estimates that can enable a better response to a possible shortage of HWs and protect the functioning of the health system. The freedom of movement of workers in the EU must be supplemented with a common pension and health care system in the EU.
Research Interests:
Als die Hauptursache fur die spate Einbindung Kroatiens in die EU sind die kriegerischen Ereignisse der 1990er zu identifizieren, deren direkte Folge die verspatete Transformation des Lan-des war. Der Fortschritt Kroatiens bestatigt, dass... more
Als die Hauptursache fur die spate Einbindung Kroatiens in die EU sind die kriegerischen Ereignisse der 1990er zu identifizieren, deren direkte Folge die verspatete Transformation des Lan-des war. Der Fortschritt Kroatiens bestatigt, dass der Stabilisierungs- und Assoziierungsprozess fur den westlichen Balkan ei-nen Weg darstellt, der tatsachlich zum EU- Beitritt fuhren kann, jedoch dass diese Entwicklung auch nicht mit der EU- Mitgliedschaft unbedingt enden muss, wie das die Entwicklungen in BiH und Serbien bestatigen. Die Entwicklungen in Kroatien zeigen deutlich, dass ein Staat mit homogener Gesellschaft und klarem Grenzen funktionsfahiger ist und auch EU-tauglicher ist als multiethnische Staaten. Wenn schon diese Behauptung nicht auf das ganze Europa anwendbar ist, ist es fur Westbalkan auf jeden Fall zutreffend.
Research Interests:
U radu su predstavljeni rezultati istraživanja analize hrvatskih online medija (web portali) o temi iseljavanja iz Hrvatske. Istraživani su koncept i slika o iseljavanju Hrvata gledani/prikazivani kroz prizmu medija u Hrvatskoj. Tema... more
U radu su predstavljeni rezultati istraživanja analize hrvatskih online medija (web portali) o temi iseljavanja iz Hrvatske. Istraživani su koncept i slika o iseljavanju Hrvata gledani/prikazivani kroz prizmu medija u Hrvatskoj. Tema „iseljavanje iz Hrvatske” analizirana je u člancima sljedećih hrvatskih web portala: Večernji list, 24 sata i Index.hr te Deutsche Welle, međunarodnom njemačkom javnom medijskom servisu. Analiza medija provodila se od listopada 2018. do siječnja 2019. Mediji su izabrani po kriteriju čitanosti te opsega i dostupnosti medijskim publikama. Korištena je zadana matrica istraživanja podijeljena u šest kategorija gdje su se na navedenim portalima analizirali članci metodom analize diskursa. Analizom medijskog sadržaja kodirana su i kategorizirana 152 analizirana članka. Prema zadanim kategorijama istraživane su: opće značajke članaka, vrijednosna orijentacija, odnos autora prema iseljavanju i zastupljenost pojma u članku, naslovi, grafički prikazi u člancima t...
The pro-natalist policies in most EU member states have not led to a demographic improvement in the expected effect. Since all possibilities for the demographic revitalisation of Europe are either unrealistic or politically unacceptable... more
The pro-natalist policies in most EU member states have not led to a demographic improvement in the expected effect. Since all possibilities for the demographic revitalisation of Europe are either unrealistic or politically unacceptable to all members, we believe that the measure we propose below is the only realistic option that could lead to an improvement in the demographic picture of the EU in the short term. This paper will show that “working-from-home economy” or remote work could be a proper demographic answer on facing the EU demographic challenges. Namely, this form of the economy would enable the revival of many of Europe’s depopulated regions, especially the EU periphery. Working-from-home economy or remote work could be a valuable demographic measure that could slow the brain drain from the EU periphery. This measure could repopulate large abandoned areas of the EU periphery and revival suburbs and rural areas. This would undoubtedly achieve a better distribution of the population at the level of the entire EU. The key idea is to allow relocation permits to workers who want to relocate to the periphery and work remotely. This measure could give new impetus to abandoned or demographically vulnerable areas, reduce brain drain, and offer workers to flee cities with a high cost of living or find more space to spread out. In this way, remote work gives people more options for where they live, reducing the necessity to live near large metropolitan city centres to maximise career potential. However, this measure certainly has severe limitations that require adapting legislation at the EU level and several other adjustments.
Keywords: working-from-home economy; EU periphery, the demographic measure, EU demographics
Keywords: working-from-home economy; EU periphery, the demographic measure, EU demographics
Research Interests:
Understanding how people react to the COVID-19 crisis, and what the consequences are of the COVID-19 pandemic is key to enable public health and other agencies to develop optimal intervention strategies. Because the timely identification... more
Understanding how people react to the COVID-19 crisis, and what the consequences are of the COVID-19 pandemic is key to enable public health and other agencies to develop optimal intervention strategies. Because the timely identification of new cases of infection has proven to be the key to timely respond to the spread of infection within a particular region, we have developed a method that can detect and predict the emergence of new cases of COVID-19 at an early stage. Further, this method can give useful insights into a family's life during the pandemic and give the prediction of birth rates. The basic methodological concept of our approach is to monitor the digital trace of language searches with the Google Trends analytical tool (GT). We divided the keyword frequency for selected words giving us a search frequency index and then compared searches with official statistics to prove the significations of results. 1) Google Trends tools are suitable for predicting the emergence of new COVID-19 cases in Croatia. The data collected by this method correlate with official data. In Croatia search activities using GT for terms such as "PCR +COVID", and symptoms "cough + corona", "pneumonia + corona"; "muscle pain + corona" correlate strongly with officially reported cases of the disease. 2) The method also shows effects on family life, increase in stress, and domestic violence. 3) Birth rate in 2021 will be just 87% of what it would be "a normal year" in Croatia. 4) This tool can give useful insights into domestic violence. Unquestionably, there are still significant open methodological issues and the questionable integrity of the data obtained using this source. The fact is also a problem that GT does not provide data on which population was sampled or how it was structured. Although these open-ended issues pose serious challenges for making clear estimates, statistics offer a range of tools available to deal with imperfect data as well as to develop controls that take data quality into account. All these insights show that GT has the potential to capture attitudes in the broad spectrum of family life themes. The benefit of this method is reliable estimates that can enable public health officials to prepare and better respond to the possible return of a pandemic in certain parts of the country and the need for responses to protect family well-being.
Research Interests:
Izvanredne situacije neupitno utječu na mentalno zdravlje pojedinaca i zajednice u cjelini. Kako bismo izmjerili te pojave u Hrvatskoj, poslužili smo se alatima digitalne demografije. Prva indicija pogoršanja men-talnog zdravlja velik je... more
Izvanredne situacije neupitno utječu na mentalno zdravlje pojedinaca i zajednice u cjelini. Kako bismo izmjerili te pojave u Hrvatskoj, poslužili smo se alatima digitalne demografije. Prva indicija pogoršanja men-talnog zdravlja velik je porast pretraživanja za pojmovima "psihijatar", "psiholog" i sl. Uočen je i porast pretraga za lijekovima za smirenje. Ko-rištenjem analitičkih alata Google Trends razvijena je funkcija za kvanti-ficiranje promjena u mrežnom ponašanju te uočeno da skupine pojmova koje sugeriraju porast "anksioznosti", tjeskobe i depresije pokazuju značajnu pozitivnu korelaciju. Prepoznat je i rizik od povećanja obitelj-skog nasilja tijekom pandemije COVID-19, a dodatan stres roditeljima donosi i zatvaranje škola.
Research Interests:
Sažetak: Demografska problematika postaje po svemu sudeći ključno nacionalno i sigurnosno pitanje Bosne i Hercegovine. Zemlja je izgubila gotovo milijun stanovnika u odnosu na predratnu brojku, a u postocima su Hrvati doživjeli najveći... more
Sažetak: Demografska problematika postaje po svemu sudeći ključno nacionalno i sigurnosno pitanje Bosne i Hercegovine. Zemlja je izgubila gotovo milijun stanovnika u odnosu na predratnu brojku, a u postocima su Hrvati doživjeli najveći demografski pad. Na djelu je vrlo vjerojatno povijesni odlazak Hrvata iz BiH nakon kojeg povratka više nema, a koji je dobrim dijelom uvjetovan političkom situacijom u zemlji. U isto vrijeme iseljeni Hrvati iz BiH su svojim "novim životom" u Njemačkoj iznimno zadovoljni, čak 73,20 % njih nije požalilo što je odselilo u Njemačku. Više od polovice ima negativan osobni stav prema BiH a samo 15,2 posto razmišlja o povratku u nekom kratkoročnom ili srednjoročnom periodu. Veliki postotak počinje doživljavati Njemačku svojom domovinom. Većina navodi kao motiv migracije političku i društvenu situaciju i gubitak svake nade i vjere da se zemlja može usmjeriti u dobrom smjeru. Rad se temelji na istraživanju provedenim u Njemačkoj metodom ankete, online-ankete i polustrukturiranim intervjuom tijekom 2017., na uzorku od 377 iseljenih Hrvata iz BiH.
Research Interests:
ABSTRACT The paper presents an exploration of the emotional attitudes of Croats, who emigrated to the Federal Republic of Germany after Croatia’s accession to the EU, about returning to their homeland. It is based on an already published... more
ABSTRACT
The paper presents an exploration of the emotional attitudes of Croats, who emigrated to the Federal Republic of Germany after Croatia’s accession to the EU, about returning to their homeland. It is based on an already published survey conducted in 2017 in Germany using the survey method, an online survey and a semi-structured
interview based on a sample of 1200 expatriate Croats, and is a continuation of the analysis of a research study presented in the book “Emigrating Croats to Germany. Are we losing Croatia?” and the scientific paper “Contemporary Migration of Croats to Germany: Characteristics and Motives” (Juric, 2017).
The survey reaffirmed that the consistent perspective of expatriate Croats in Germany was that they were very satisfied and did not regret leaving Croatia. The vast majority do not feel alienated. Accordingly, only a few think about returning. The reasons why they do not want to return are the same ones that led to their departure from their homeland, primarily because of an unjust society and the so-called “captured state”, that is, one charecterised by corruption, weak institutions, nepotism and clientism.
Key words: emigration, return, Croats, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Germany
______________________________
SAZETAK
Rad predstavlja istraživanje emocionalnih stavova o povratku u domovinu Hrvata koji su iselili u Saveznu
Republiku Njemačku nakon pristupanja Hrvatske EU, a temelji se na već objavljenom istraživanju provedenom
u Njemačkoj metodom ankete, online ankete i polustrukturiranog intervjua tijekom 2017., na uzorku od 1200
iseljenih Hrvata te predstavlja nastavak analize istraživačke studije koja je predstavljena u knjizi „Iseljavanje
Hrvata u Njemačku. Gubimo li Hrvatsku?” te znanstvenom radu „Suvremeno iseljavanje Hrvata u Njemačku:
karakteristike i motivi” (Jurić, 2017).
Istraživanje je potvrdilo da su iseljeni Hrvati u Njemačkoj u pravilu vrlo zadovoljni te nisu požalili svoju odluku
da se presele. Velika većina ne osjeća se otuđeno, stoga samo rijetki razmišljaju o povratku. Razlozi zašto se ne
žele vratiti su isti oni zbog kojih su napustili domovinu, prvenstveno su to nepravedno društvo i tzv. zarobljena
država, odnosno korupcija, slabe institucije, nepotizam i klijentelizam.
Ključne riječi: iseljavanje, povratak, Hrvati, Hrvatska, Bosna i Hercegovina, Njemačka
The paper presents an exploration of the emotional attitudes of Croats, who emigrated to the Federal Republic of Germany after Croatia’s accession to the EU, about returning to their homeland. It is based on an already published survey conducted in 2017 in Germany using the survey method, an online survey and a semi-structured
interview based on a sample of 1200 expatriate Croats, and is a continuation of the analysis of a research study presented in the book “Emigrating Croats to Germany. Are we losing Croatia?” and the scientific paper “Contemporary Migration of Croats to Germany: Characteristics and Motives” (Juric, 2017).
The survey reaffirmed that the consistent perspective of expatriate Croats in Germany was that they were very satisfied and did not regret leaving Croatia. The vast majority do not feel alienated. Accordingly, only a few think about returning. The reasons why they do not want to return are the same ones that led to their departure from their homeland, primarily because of an unjust society and the so-called “captured state”, that is, one charecterised by corruption, weak institutions, nepotism and clientism.
Key words: emigration, return, Croats, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Germany
______________________________
SAZETAK
Rad predstavlja istraživanje emocionalnih stavova o povratku u domovinu Hrvata koji su iselili u Saveznu
Republiku Njemačku nakon pristupanja Hrvatske EU, a temelji se na već objavljenom istraživanju provedenom
u Njemačkoj metodom ankete, online ankete i polustrukturiranog intervjua tijekom 2017., na uzorku od 1200
iseljenih Hrvata te predstavlja nastavak analize istraživačke studije koja je predstavljena u knjizi „Iseljavanje
Hrvata u Njemačku. Gubimo li Hrvatsku?” te znanstvenom radu „Suvremeno iseljavanje Hrvata u Njemačku:
karakteristike i motivi” (Jurić, 2017).
Istraživanje je potvrdilo da su iseljeni Hrvati u Njemačkoj u pravilu vrlo zadovoljni te nisu požalili svoju odluku
da se presele. Velika većina ne osjeća se otuđeno, stoga samo rijetki razmišljaju o povratku. Razlozi zašto se ne
žele vratiti su isti oni zbog kojih su napustili domovinu, prvenstveno su to nepravedno društvo i tzv. zarobljena
država, odnosno korupcija, slabe institucije, nepotizam i klijentelizam.
Ključne riječi: iseljavanje, povratak, Hrvati, Hrvatska, Bosna i Hercegovina, Njemačka
Research Interests:
Mostariensia, Nr. 1, Mostar, 2018. Demografska problematika postaje po svemu sudeći ključno nacionalno i sigurnosno pitanje Bosne i Hercegovine. Zemlja je izgubila gotovo milijun stanovnika u odnosu na predratnu brojku, a u postocima su... more
Mostariensia, Nr. 1, Mostar, 2018.
Demografska problematika postaje po svemu sudeći ključno nacionalno i sigurnosno pitanje Bosne i Hercegovine. Zemlja je izgubila gotovo milijun stanovnika u odnosu na predratnu brojku, a u postocima su Hrvati doživjeli najveći demografski pad. Na djelu je vrlo vjerojatno povijesni odlazak Hrvata iz BiH nakon kojeg povratka više nema, a koji je dobrim dijelom uvjetovan političkom situacijom u zemlji. U isto vrijeme iseljeni Hrvati iz BiH su svojim „novim životom“ u Njemačkoj iznimno zadovoljni, čak 79 % njih, dok 88,5 % ispitanika nije požalilo što je odselilo u Njemačku. Više od polovice ima negativan osobni stav prema BiH a samo 15 posto razmišlja o povratku u nekom kratkoročnom ili srednjoročnom periodu. Veliki postotak počinje doživljavati Njemačku svojom domovinom. Većina navodi kao motiv migracije političku i društvenu situaciju i gubitak svake nade i vjere da se zemlja može usmjeriti u dobrom smjeru. Rad se temelji na istraživanju provedenim u Njemačkoj metodom ankete, online-ankete i polustrukturiranim intervjuom tijekom 2017., na uzorku od 400 iseljenih Hrvata iz BiH te predstavlja prvo empirijsko istraživanje ove teme.
Demografska problematika postaje po svemu sudeći ključno nacionalno i sigurnosno pitanje Bosne i Hercegovine. Zemlja je izgubila gotovo milijun stanovnika u odnosu na predratnu brojku, a u postocima su Hrvati doživjeli najveći demografski pad. Na djelu je vrlo vjerojatno povijesni odlazak Hrvata iz BiH nakon kojeg povratka više nema, a koji je dobrim dijelom uvjetovan političkom situacijom u zemlji. U isto vrijeme iseljeni Hrvati iz BiH su svojim „novim životom“ u Njemačkoj iznimno zadovoljni, čak 79 % njih, dok 88,5 % ispitanika nije požalilo što je odselilo u Njemačku. Više od polovice ima negativan osobni stav prema BiH a samo 15 posto razmišlja o povratku u nekom kratkoročnom ili srednjoročnom periodu. Veliki postotak počinje doživljavati Njemačku svojom domovinom. Većina navodi kao motiv migracije političku i društvenu situaciju i gubitak svake nade i vjere da se zemlja može usmjeriti u dobrom smjeru. Rad se temelji na istraživanju provedenim u Njemačkoj metodom ankete, online-ankete i polustrukturiranim intervjuom tijekom 2017., na uzorku od 400 iseljenih Hrvata iz BiH te predstavlja prvo empirijsko istraživanje ove teme.
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SAŽETAK U radu su predstavljeni rezultati istraživanja motiva i karakteristika novijih iselja-vanja Hrvata u Saveznu Republiku Njemačku. Prema percepciji samih iseljenika, glavni motivi iseljavanja nisu ekonomski. Analiza iseljeničkih... more
SAŽETAK U radu su predstavljeni rezultati istraživanja motiva i karakteristika novijih iselja-vanja Hrvata u Saveznu Republiku Njemačku. Prema percepciji samih iseljenika, glavni motivi iseljavanja nisu ekonomski. Analiza iseljeničkih stavova pokazala je da je glavni poticaj odlasku iz zemlje predodžba da u Hrvatskoj nisu institucionali-zirane vrijednosti radne etike i uopće poštenja te iseljenici smatraju da se hrvatsko društvo moralno slomilo. Rad se temelji na istraživanju provedenom u Njemačkoj kombiniranom metodologijom. Podaci su prikupljeni metodama ankete i polustruk-turiranog intervjua tijekom 2017., na uzorku od 1200 Hrvata iseljenih u Njemačku. Kao polazište u analizama su upotrijebljeni i službeni hrvatski i njemački statistički podaci, koji su poslužili kao deskriptivni i komparativni okvir provedene studije. Rezultati istraživanja pokazali su povezanost između političke etike, slabih instituci-ja i iseljavanja. Usto, postojanje razgranatih hrvatskih migrantskih mreža iz prošlosti u Njemačkoj olakšava i potiče migraciju. Broj iseljenih u Njemačku znatno je veći od onoga koji bilježi službena statistika, a osnovni su trendovi iseljavanja sljedeći: veći-nom se iseljavaju mlade osobe između dvadeset i četrdeset godina, koje su pretežito bile zaposlene te se u pravilu iseljavaju s cijelim obiteljima. Iseljeni Hrvati svojim su »novim životom« u Njemačkoj u pravilu vrlo zadovoljni i nisu požalili što su se odselili u Njemačku. 1. UVOD Međunarodne migracije nisu interesno neutralne i ne događaju se slučaj-no, nego se proizvode. One nisu slučajan društveni fenomen (Mesić, 2014: 176). Hrvatska, kao ekonomski i populacijski slabije razvijena zemlja, u glo-balizacijskim je procesima više izložena moćnim migracijskim silnicama nego što na njih može utjecati, a ulaskom u EU, čija je temeljna vrijednost mobilnost radne snage, njena je pozicija u tome još više oslabjela (Mesić,
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Sažetak: Multietničke države se znatno teže konsolidiraju kao demokracije i u usporedbi sa nacionalnim državama su manje funkcionalne. Bosna i Hercegovina je tipično podijeljeno društvo u kojem je suživot tri nacije i tri vjere ostvariv... more
Sažetak: Multietničke države se znatno teže konsolidiraju kao demokracije i u usporedbi sa nacionalnim državama su manje funkcionalne. Bosna i Hercegovina je tipično podijeljeno društvo u kojem je suživot tri nacije i tri vjere ostvariv samo po modelu konsocijacijske demokracije. Glavni uvjet stvaranja funkcionalne demokratske države u podijeljenom društvu jeste realiziranje tzv. " etno-kulturalne pravde " koja podrazumijeva uspostavu kolektivnih prava i slobodno teritorijalno-političko organiziranje triju glavnih nacionalnih zajednica.
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The Ukrainian refugee crisis lacks reliable data about refugee flows, demographic structure, and integration (intention to stay). Although Facebook, Instagram and YouTube are social platforms with the most users, very few studies have... more
The Ukrainian refugee crisis lacks reliable data about refugee flows, demographic structure, and integration (intention to stay). Although Facebook, Instagram and YouTube are social platforms with the most users, very few studies have been written about their potential for migration studies and integration.
Research Interests:
The paper presents the results of research conducted among students at two Croatians universities, the Catholic University of Croatia, and the University of Zagreb. By defining Croatia’s affiliation with the region through presenting and... more
The paper presents the results of research conducted among students at two
Croatians universities, the Catholic University of Croatia, and the University of Zagreb. By
defining Croatia’s affiliation with the region through presenting and explaining the term, it
will be clarified that the Balkans is not exclusively geographical but becomes a political and
cultural epithet that goes beyond its basic meaning. Also, it is important to define media
influences which can create certain public opinion and lead to stereotyped attitudes. The
media, together with various socio-economic, cultural, political, and contextual factors, in
various ways, contribute to different aspects of individual and aggregate behaviors. Social
experiences are partially or completely mediated with “socio-cultural habitus”. The students
agreed that the Balkans were portrayed negatively in the Croatian media and that the
perception of the term itself was conditioned by a number of different factors.
Croatians universities, the Catholic University of Croatia, and the University of Zagreb. By
defining Croatia’s affiliation with the region through presenting and explaining the term, it
will be clarified that the Balkans is not exclusively geographical but becomes a political and
cultural epithet that goes beyond its basic meaning. Also, it is important to define media
influences which can create certain public opinion and lead to stereotyped attitudes. The
media, together with various socio-economic, cultural, political, and contextual factors, in
various ways, contribute to different aspects of individual and aggregate behaviors. Social
experiences are partially or completely mediated with “socio-cultural habitus”. The students
agreed that the Balkans were portrayed negatively in the Croatian media and that the
perception of the term itself was conditioned by a number of different factors.
Research Interests:
Background: Our study reduces the gap in human behavioural data by providing timely and accurate data on individual behaviours, attitudes and monitoring families in Croatia during the pandemic COVID-19. We illustrate how Google Trends,... more
Background: Our study reduces the gap in human behavioural data by providing timely and accurate data on individual behaviours, attitudes and monitoring families in Croatia during the pandemic COVID-19. We illustrate how Google Trends, together with the official data, can offer an innovative and powerful tool for rapid and continuous data collection to monitor trends in behaviours relevant for families and mitigation strategies of COVID-19. Methodology: The primary methodological concept of our approach is to monitor the digital trace of language searches with the Google Trends analytical tool (GT). We divided the keyword frequency for selected words giving us a search frequency index, and then compared searches with official statistics to prove the signification of results. Perceived regularities make it possible to predict trends. Results: 1) Google Trends tools are suitable for predicting the emergence of new COVID-19 cases in Croatia. The data collected by this method correlate with official data. In Croatia, search activities using GT for terms such as "PCR +COVID" and symptoms "cough + corona", "pneumonia + corona",; "muscle pain + corona" correlate strongly with officially reported cases of the disease. 2) The method also shows effects on family life, increase in stress, and domestic violence. 3) Birth rate in 2021 will be just 87% of what would be “a
normal year” in Croatia.
4) This tool can give useful insights into domestic violence.
Restrictions: Unquestionably, there are still significant open
methodological issues and the questionable integrity of the data
obtained using this source. Furthermore, GT does not provide
demographic data about the sample. Although these open-ended
issues pose serious challenges for making clear estimates,
statistics offer a range of tools available to deal with imperfect
data and develop controls that take data quality into account.
Conclusion: All results show that the increase in Google search
is correlated with the increase in the number of new cases
recorded by official statistics and that the decrease in Google
search is correlated with the decrease in the number of new
cases recorded by official statistics.
The benefit of this method is reliable estimates that can enable
public health officials to prepare and better respond to the
possible return of a pandemic in certain parts of the country and
the need for responses to protect family well-being as well as to
enable public health and other agencies to develop optimal
intervention strategies.
normal year” in Croatia.
4) This tool can give useful insights into domestic violence.
Restrictions: Unquestionably, there are still significant open
methodological issues and the questionable integrity of the data
obtained using this source. Furthermore, GT does not provide
demographic data about the sample. Although these open-ended
issues pose serious challenges for making clear estimates,
statistics offer a range of tools available to deal with imperfect
data and develop controls that take data quality into account.
Conclusion: All results show that the increase in Google search
is correlated with the increase in the number of new cases
recorded by official statistics and that the decrease in Google
search is correlated with the decrease in the number of new
cases recorded by official statistics.
The benefit of this method is reliable estimates that can enable
public health officials to prepare and better respond to the
possible return of a pandemic in certain parts of the country and
the need for responses to protect family well-being as well as to
enable public health and other agencies to develop optimal
intervention strategies.
Research Interests:
Background: This paper shows that Big Data and the so-called tools of digital demography, such as Google Trends (GT) and insights from social networks such as Instagram, Twitter and Facebook, can be useful for determining, estimating, and... more
Background: This paper shows that Big Data and the so-called tools of digital demography, such as Google Trends (GT) and insights from social networks such as Instagram, Twitter and Facebook, can be useful for determining, estimating, and predicting the forced migration flows to the EU caused by the war in Ukraine. Objective: The objective of this study was to test the usefulness of Google Trends indexes to predict further forced migration from Ukraine to the EU (mainly to Germany) and gain demographic insights from social networks into the age and gender structure of refugees. Methods: The primary methodological concept of our approach is to monitor the digital trace of Internet searches in Ukrainian, Russian and English with the Google Trends analytical tool (trends.google.com). Initially, keywords were chosen that are most predictive, specific, and common enough to predict the forced migration from Ukraine. We requested the data before and during the war outbreak and divided the keyword frequency for each migration-related query to standardise the data. We compared this search frequency index with official statistics from UNHCR to prove the significations of results and correlations and test the model's predictive potential. Since UNHCR does not yet have complete data on the demographic structure of refugees, to fill this gap, we used three other alternative Big Data sources: Facebook, Twitter and Instagram. Results: All tested migration-related search queries about emigration planning from Ukraine show the positive linear association between Google index and data from official UNHCR statistics; R 2 = 0.1211 for searches in Russian and R 2 = 0.1831 for searches in Ukrainian. It is noticed that Ukrainians use the Russian language more often to search for terms than Ukrainian. Increase in migration-related search activities in Ukraine such as "граница" (Rus. border), кордону (Ukr. border); "Польща" (Poland); "Германия" (Rus. Germany), "Німеччина" (Ukr. Germany) and "Угорщина" and "Венгрия" (Hungary) correlate strongly with officially UNHCR data for externally displaced persons from Ukraine. All three languages show that the interest in Poland is the highest. When refugees arrive in nearby countries, the search for terms related to Germany, such as "crossing the border + Germany", etc., is proliferating. This result confirms our hypothesis that one-third of all refugees will cross into Germany. According to Big Data insights, the estimate of the total number of expected refugees is to expect 5,4 Million refugees. The age group most represented is between 24 and 45 years (data for children are unavailable), and over 65% are women. Conclusion: The increase in migration-related search queries is correlated with the rise in the number of refugees from Ukraine in the EU. Thus this method allows reliable forecasts. Understanding the consequences of forced migration from Ukraine is crucial to enabling UNHCR and governments to develop optimal humanitarian strategies and prepare for refugee reception and possible integration. The benefit of this method is reliable estimates and forecasting that can allow governments and UNHCR to prepare and better respond to the recent humanitarian crisis.