Dominic Kniveton

It is assumed that sea-level rise due to climate change will be so severe that those living near sea level will be forced to relocate. However, new research around a series of islands that have suffered subsidence due to a recent earthquake suggests that instead, island residents remain and use a range of strategies to adapt to regular flooding.

... 1 shows, seven passive microwave-only algorithms provided outputs for inter-comparison over both ... European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting (ECMWF) numerical weather predictionmodel. ... pared by RSU during the results interpretation and intercomparison processes. ...

... D.; Sanderson, V.; Schmetz, J.; Smith, EA; Solomon, R.; Steinwagner, J.; Tampieri, F.; Tapiador, FJ; Tassa, A.; Torricella, F.; Tripoli, GJ; Turk ... Passive microwave (PMW) radiometers on board low Earth orbiting (LEO) satellites are used to determine information on the vertical cloud ...

Recent research into migration in Bangladesh has highlighted that people migrate for better livelihoods, not necessarily in response to climatic stresses and shocks. If facilitated appropriately, internal and international migration can help build adaptive capacity to future environmental and climatic hazards. In this framing, migration happens in the context of a growing city‐centred economy that promotes remittances to villages. However, a textual analysis of current and recent policies concerning climate change, development and poverty alleviation, and disaster management shows that the economic and adaptive roles of internal migration are often not included in policy framing. We argue that if migration works as a positive step towards adaptation, then the key challenge is to align the policies with this new understanding.

Climate change is directly and indirectly linked to human health, including through access to treatment and care. Our systematic review presents a ‘systems’ understanding of the nexus between drought and antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence in HIV-positive individuals in the African setting. Narrative synthesis of 111 studies retrieved from Web of Science, PubMed/Medline, and PsycINFO suggests that economic and livelihoods conditions, comorbidities and ART regimens, human mobility, and psycho-behavioural dispositions and support systems interact in complex ways in the drought-ART adherence nexus in Africa. Economic and livelihood-related challenges appear to impose the strongest impact on human interactions, actions and systems that culminate in non-adherence. Indeed, the complex pathways identified by our systems approach emphasise the need for more integrated research approaches to understanding this phenomenon and develop interventions.

The topic of climate change and migration attracts a strong following from the media and produces an increase in academic literature and reports from international governmental institutions and NGOs. It poses questions that point to the core of social and environmental developments of the 21st century, such as environmental and climate justice as well as North–South relations.This article examines the main features of the debate and presents a genealogy of the discussion on climate change and migration since the 1980s. It presents an analysis of different framings and lines of argument, such as the securitization of climate change and connections to development studies and adaptation research. This article also presents methodological and conceptual questions, such as how to conceive interactions between migration and climate change. As legal aspects have played a crucial role since the beginning of the debate, different legal strands are considered here, including soft law and poli...

The impacts of future climate change could be significantly reduced if people were better able to cope with present climate risks. The role of human mobility, particularly labor migration and remittances, has received little attention in the adaptation policies in Nepal. Instead, migration is perceived as a challenge to development and adaptation goals. This is partly due to the lack of empirical evidence on the relationship between migration, environmental stressors, and CCA. This chapter examines the role of remittances in building farm assets such as farm size, livestock, irrigation, and farm mechanization, which are an important component of a rural household’s adaptive capacity. Circular migration in search of employment and higher earnings has for long been a defining feature of the livelihoods of many households in the Sagarmatha Transect of Koshi sub-basin of Nepal. Remittances are an important component of recipient household income. A major share of remittances is spent on food, healthcare, loan repayment, education, and consumer goods. There is little investment of remittances in measures pertaining to disaster preparedness (e.g. insurance). Common household responses during floods and the immediate aftermath are reactive and short-term in nature, and those between two flood events include some low-cost structural measures. A significant positive association between remittance recipient status of a household and farm size is observed. However, the longer duration for which a household receives remittances is more likely to reduce the size of its farm holding.

Previous work by Todd and Kniveton (TK2001) (J. Geophys. Res. 106(D23) (2001) 32031) has indicated a statistically significant association (at the daily timescale) between short-term reductions in galacticcosmicrays, specifically Forbush decrease (FD) events, and reduced cloud cover, mainly over Antarctica (as recorded in International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) D1 data). This study presents an extension of the previous work using an extended dataset of FD events and ISCCP cloud data over the period 1983–2000, to establish how stable the observed cloud anomalies are. Composite analysis of ISCCP data based on a sample of 32 FD events (excluding those coincident with solar proton events) indicates cloud anomalies with a very similar space/time structure to that previously reported, although of smaller magnitude. Substantial reductions in high level cloud (up to 12% for zonal mean, compared to 18% reported by TK2001) are observed over the high geomagnetic latitudes, especially of the southern hemisphere immediately following FD event onset. Largest anomalies are centred on the Antarctic plateau region during austral winter. However, the largest cloud anomalies occur where the accuracy of the ISCCP cloud retrievals is likely to be lowest, such that the results must be treated with extreme caution. Moreover, significant positive composite mean surface and tropospheric temperature anomalies centred over the same region are also observed for the FD sample from the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis data. Such increased temperatures are inconsistent with the radiative effect of a reduction in high-level cloud during local winter. Overall, the results do not provide strong evidence of a direct galacticcosmicray/cloud association at short timescales. The results highlight (a) the potential problems of data quality in the high latitude regions (b) the problems inherent in inferring cause and effect relationships from observational data alone (c) the need for further research to test competing hypotheses.

Synergistic investigation of ocean, atmosphere and land processes, using data from GERB, SEVIRI and other sensors. David Liewellyn-Jones, Eric Bradshaw, Sean Lawrence, Glyn Spencer, Earth Observation Science, Space Research Centre, University of Leicester, University Road, ...

The study of cloud cover changes during Forbush decreases in galactic cosmic rays (GCR) and Earth transits of the Heliospheric Current Sheet (HCS) allow the investigation of the impact of solar variability on the Earth's atmosphere at short timescales and theoretically free of. natural internal modes of climate variability with similar temporal characteristics. This paper reviews the recent research that has examined the cloud cover responses coincident with Forbush decreases and Earth transits of HCS. In particular the studies have used data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) and have explored the global pattern of changes in cloud. The studies have consistently revealed substantial reductions in high-level cloud over high geomagnetic latitudes, especially of the southern hemisphere. However, unfortunately the largest cloud anomalies occur where the accuracy of the ISCCP cloud retrievals is likely to be the lowest. Thus the paper explores the supporting and contradictory evidence for the existence of these cloud responses and their relation to some of the proposed mechanisms linking solar variability with the Earth's climate.

ABSTRACT A relationship is identified between the largest (top 5%) most rapid global increases in ISCCP retrieved IR cloud cover and statistically significant increases in the rate of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) flux across the globe; the cloud changes correspond both temporally and spatially to significant variations in a range of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis parameters, including: air temper-ature and pressure. We suggest that because the influence of GCR on cloud cover is likely a second order effect, the use of datasets internal to the climate system has allowed us to identify a strong relationship where previously none has been found. The cloud-climate interaction ob-served indicates an indirect forcing mechanism operating via an alteration to polar circulation. An attempt has been made to simulate the observed climate anomalies by modifying cloud cover directly within a general circulation model (GCM), thus allowing us to comment on the casual relationship between the observed cloud/climate changes.

Analyses of historical patterns of rainfall variability are essential for understanding long-term changes in precipitation timing and distribution. Focussing on former Natal and Zululand (now KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa), this study presents the first combined annual and seasonal reconstruction of rainfall variability over southeast Africa for the 19th century. Analyses of documentary sources, including newspapers and colonial and missionary materials, indicate that the region was affected by severe or multi-year drought on eight occasions between 1836 and 1900 (the rainy seasons of 1836-38, 1861-63, 1865-66, 1868-70, 1876-79, 1883-85, 1886-90 and 1895-1900). Six severe or multi-year wet periods are also identified (1847-49, 1854-57, 1863-65, 1879-81, 1890-91 and 1892-94). The timing of these events agrees well with independent reconstructions of 19th century rainfall for other parts of the southern African summer rainfall zone (SRZ), suggesting subcontinental scale variability. Our...

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. This issue is of particular importance for environmentally vulnerable regions such as southern Africa. The subcontinent is considered especially vulnerable extreme events, due to a number of factors including extensive poverty, disease and political instability.

It is increasingly accepted that that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing

It is increasingly accepted that any possible climate change will not only have an influence on mean climate but may also significantly alter climatic variability. A change in the distribution and magnitude of extreme rainfall events (associated with changing variability), such as droughts or flooding, may have a far greater impact on human and natural systems than a changing mean.