Steven Suan Zhu

The current SIR and SEIR models for infectious disease does an excellent job at modeling the epidemic progression through time. In this lengthy, 100+ pages current work, building on top of their existing characteristics and initially modeling on parameters based on Covid-19, trying to generalize to all viral infections beyond Covid-19 and expand the scope of infectious modeling in three directions. First, we show that despite the recursive dependency nature of infectious disease on each variables and its representation in the form of the classical sets of differential equations, every step of infection can be expressed discretely as the sum of alternating exponentially growing series with a limited number of terms. Secondly, the classical SIR and SEIR models were proposed before the wide availability of computing powers and simulation, therefore, these models address little on the procedural and spatial aspect of epidemic progression and its relationship with other well-known variables. We address this issue by introducing a simulation model and a framework that encompasses both. Thirdly, we focus on the layer of abstraction above the daily epidemic progression, that is, we are concerned only with the final infection ratio, and provided a closed form of expression for the final infection ratio F R only given R 0 and δ the ratio of initial seed infection size over total size T. The closed form is a sum of alternating exponentially growing series with a limited number of terms. We also show that for quick and efficient calculations, under the assumption of negligible initial infection size, one can compute the upper and lower bound (which only depends on R 0) without computing F R directly. Our independently derived lower bound 1 − 1/R 2 0 is strikingly similar to the endemic equilibrium 1/R 0 proposed by Smith in 1970 1

Based on the our October paper "A Generalized Viral Infection Mathematical Model Derived from Covid-19 Simulation", at a conceptual level higher than the classic SIR/SEIR model, we have established the 6 laws of infection regarding the final infection ratio within any given population without any artificial intervention and have shown the final infection ratio in a natural, non-interfered pandemic must fall within a specified lower and upper bound as 1 − 1 R 2 0 ≤ F R ≤ 2 (1 − 1 R 0). Whereas R 0 is the intrinsic R 0 value of the disease. In this paper, we show how human intervention strategies alter the previous assumptions based on 2 factors. First, artificial intervention with cycles of restricting measures and relaxations. Based on our May paper "The Predictions on Worldwide Covid-19 Pandemic Cases Based on Historical Data", we have already demonstrated the dynamic falling R 0 (t) curve during lock down measures. With more historical data and observation, we now expand the scope to include a dynamic rising R 0 (t) curve following the relaxation of measures, completing the cycle of restriction and relaxation. Second, the introduction of vaccination at a steady rate introduced a new variable into the existing infection model, we denote it as function V (t). We demonstrate the optimal strategies of vaccination interpreted within our existing established framework.

In the book On the Origin of Extraterrestrial Industrial Civilizations, four cases of analysis of possible existence of earth like civilization in the cosmos are setup. That is, projected future Type III civilizations derived from earth analog-based civilizations are both rare in space and time. Projected future Type III civilizations derived from earth analog-based civilizations are becoming more frequent in space but not in time, Projected future Type III civilizations derived from earth analog-based civilizations are becoming more frequent in time but not in space, and finally, the projected future Type III civilizations derived from earth analog-based civilizations are becoming both more frequent in time and in space. The majority of the book was focused on the modeling of the last case, which is the most likely scenario in which a contact can become possible and the most complex case compares to the former three since it is based on global regulatory mechanism and the relative ease at abiogenesis. In the book, we proposed the nearest civilizations possible to earth given our current understanding of biology and evolution and assuming earth biological history served as the typical trajectory. In this paper, using the concept of self indication assumption, the lower bound can also be settled, surprisingly the lower bound is likely be only two orders of magnitudes below the upper bound, despite a much larger possible spread of prior probability on the chance of low likelihood of abiogenesis. We also used self indication assumption for our earliest window, and we find that despite a possible window size of 4 Gyr according to the Lineweaver scale, much more recent, shorter earliest window is favored. Abstract Finally, over the course of time, other authors have proposed various explanatory mechanisms for possible detection/non-detection of extraterrestrial civilizations, we try to clarify the entire landscape by presenting all possible cases all at once and fitting them into our conceptual framework.

A consistent cyclic pattern of daily confirmed cases in an almost harmonic oscillating nature is observed from both total number of the Covid-19 cases worldwide as well as local and regional data. In this paper, We find that the observed phenomena can be explained through manipulations on our proposed simulation models. Borrowing inspiration from existing SIR and SEIR model, an initial model with the concept of infection cycle is introduced to dissect epidemic progression temporally. A second model is constructed by taking into account free moving agents on a large sized grid board to dissect epidemic progression spatially. Thus, we established a hierarchical representation of the epidemiological progression with the former as the more abstract layer and the latter as the more detailed. We proposed various mechanism that potentially can give rise to the cyclic nature observed. Out of all possible mechanisms, symptom delay factor d 2 , early screening/contact tracing, and intra-weekly reporting changes stood as the most promising explanations for the observed cyclic nature. The presence of symptom delay factor d 2 suggests that the cyclic nature is an intrinsic characteristics of the disease itself so that there possibly exists an asymptomatic phase followed by an incubation period before the onset of clinical symptoms. On the other hand, The presence of early screening/contact tracing, and 1

The Covid-19 pandemic which started in December 2019 has caused a tremendous impact on the life, health, and economy on the globe and situation remains grim. With 2 months of data accumulation, we now attempt to predict the future trend of the outbreak. We predict that 1.8 million as the final number of confirmed cases for Europe, 1.4 million as the final number of confirmed cases for Russia, 4~5 million as the more likely final number of confirmed cases and an optimistic projection of 2.1 million cases for United States, For the rest of the world, much uncertainty remains, in a more optimistic scenario, 5.4 million cases. In less optimistic scenario, 74.7 million cases. The number of cases worldwide is estimated to be 13.33 million as the lower bound and 85.26 million as the upper bound, or little over 1% of the total population of the world. A global peak in daily reported cases could happen as soon as late May, or could be as late as the end of the year. The overall rate death ranges from 11.2% for Europe, to 9.5% for US, to 2.6% for Russia, and 10% for the rest of the world. Overall, the final number of deaths are expected to be 1.23 million at the lower bound and 9.2 million at the upper bound. In the more optimistic scenario, the pandemic will be controlled within the year worldwide but could potentially span up to 3 years. During the study, we find that it is critical to reduce the basic reproduction number R 0 as low as possible and as quickly as possible to be < 1. A slight variation in basic reproduction number contributes to drastically different path of growth overtime.

This study examined four countries Israel, United States, United Kingdom, and Serbia and present their possible vaccination trajectories into 2021. We found that populations in all the four countries are relaxing and taking the advantage of the benefit of an increasingly immunized community hence, experiencing a rising phase of Rc(t). The United States is of particular concern, due to its fast rising Rc(t) in comparison to other countries, potentially generating another wave of infection. Due to aggressive vaccination program, continued implementation of restrictive measures, or both, in all countries we analyzed, present a cautiously optimistic outlook at controlling the pandemic toward the latter part of 2021. We also found that despite a significant fraction of the population in selected countries being immunized, no countries other than Israel has its Rc(t) reached its intrinsic R0 value. Based on our proposed methodology for deriving R0, our prediction shows that Israel's i...

The emergence of intelligence is a relatively recent phenomena throughout the cosmos. The total number of habitable extraterrestrial planets within the Milky Way capable of supporting advanced, intelligent life within the next 500 Myr is <10,799. Almost all of which are earth-like orbiting around a single star with mass ranges from 0.628 to 1 solar mass. No exomoons are capable of supporting advanced life, and a negligible number of low mass binary systems (<0.628 solar mass) are habitable. The nearest extraterrestrial industrial civilization lies at least 88.7 million light years away, and possibly 111 million light years beyond. No extraterrestrial civilization arises before 232.74 Mya within the observable universe, and no extraterrestrial civilization arises before 270.95 Mya within the universe by co-moving distance. Despite great distances between the nearest civilizations and the low probability of emergence within our vicinity, given the sheer size of the universe, the...

The emergence of intelligence is likely a relatively recent phenomena throughout the cosmos. The total number of habitable extraterrestrial planets within the Milky Way capable of supporting advanced, intelligent life within the next 500 Myr is <5,162. Almost all of which are earth-like orbiting around a single star with mass ranges from 0.628 to 1 solar mass. No exomoons are capable of supporting advanced life, and a negligible number of low mass binary systems (<0.628 solar mass) are habitable. The nearest extraterrestrial industrial civilization lies at least 88.7 million light years away, and possibly 111 million light years beyond. No extraterrestrial civilization arises before 232.74 Mya within the observable universe, and no extraterrestrial civilization arises before 270.95 Mya within the universe by co-moving distance. Despite great distances between the nearest civilizations and the low probability of emergence within our vicinity, given the sheer size of the univers...

Based on the our October paper "A Generalized Viral Infection Mathematical Model Derived from Covid-19 Simulation", at a conceptual level higher than the classic SIR/SEIR model, we have established the 6 laws of infection regarding the final infection ratio within any given population without any artificial intervention and have shown the final infection ratio in a natural, non-interfered pandemic must fall within a specified lower and upper bound as 1 − 1 R 2 0 ≤ F R ≤ 2 (1 − 1 R 0). Whereas R 0 is the intrinsic R 0 value of the disease. In this paper, we show how human intervention strategies alter the previous assumptions based on 2 factors. First, artificial intervention with cycles of restricting measures and relaxations. Based on our May paper "The Predictions on Worldwide Covid-19 Pandemic Cases Based on Historical Data", we have already demonstrated the dynamic falling R 0 (t) curve during lock down measures. With more historical data and observation, we now expand the scope to include a dynamic rising R 0 (t) curve following the relaxation of measures, completing the cycle of restriction and relaxation. Second, the introduction of vaccination at a steady rate introduced a new variable into the existing infection model, we denote it as function V (t). We demonstrate the optimal strategies of vaccination interpreted within our existing established framework.

In the book On the Origin of Extraterrestrial Industrial Civilizations, four cases of analysis of possible existence of earth like civilization in the cosmos are setup. That is, projected future Type III civilizations derived from earth analog-based civilizations are both rare in space and time. Projected future Type III civilizations derived from earth analog-based civilizations are becoming more frequent in space but not in time, Projected future Type III civilizations derived from earth analog-based civilizations are becoming more frequent in time but not in space, and finally, the projected future Type III civilizations derived from earth analog-based civilizations are becoming both more frequent in time and in space. The majority of the book was focused on the modeling of the last case, which is the most likely scenario in which a contact can become possible and the most complex case compares to the former three since it is based on global regulatory mechanism and the relative ease at abiogenesis. In the book, we proposed the nearest civilizations possible to earth given our current understanding of biology and evolution and assuming earth biological history served as the typical trajectory. In this paper, using the concept of self indication assumption, the lower bound can also be settled, surprisingly the lower bound is likely be only two orders of magnitudes below the upper bound, despite a much larger possible spread of prior probability on the chance of low likelihood of abiogenesis. We also used self indication assumption for our earliest window, and we find that despite a possible window size of 4 Gyr according to the Lineweaver scale, much more recent, shorter earliest window is favored.

Abstract Finally, over the course of time, other authors have proposed various explanatory mechanisms for possible detection/non-detection of extraterrestrial civilizations, we try to clarify the entire landscape by presenting all possible cases all at once and fitting them into our conceptual framework.

The current SIR and SEIR models for infectious disease does an excellent job at modeling the epidemic progression through time. In this lengthy, 100+ pages current work, building on top of their existing characteristics and initially modeling on parameters based on Covid-19, trying to generalize to all viral infections beyond Covid-19 and expand the scope of infectious modeling in three directions. First, we show that despite the recursive dependency nature of infectious disease on each variables and its representation in the form of the classical sets of differential equations, every step of infection can be expressed discretely as the sum of alternating exponentially growing series with a limited number of terms. Secondly, the classical SIR and SEIR models were proposed before the wide availability of computing powers and simulation, therefore, these models address little on the procedural and spatial aspect of epidemic progression and its relationship with other well-known variables. We address this issue by introducing a simulation model and a framework that encompasses both. Thirdly, we focus on the layer of abstraction above the daily epidemic progression, that is, we are concerned only with the final infection ratio, and provided a closed form of expression for the final infection ratio F R only given R 0 and δ the ratio of initial seed infection size over total size T. The closed form is a sum of alternating exponentially growing series with a limited number of terms. We also show that for quick and efficient calculations, under the assumption of negligible initial infection size, one can compute the upper and lower bound (which only depends on R 0) without computing F R directly. Our independently derived lower bound 1 − 1/R 2 0 is strikingly similar to the endemic equilibrium 1/R 0 proposed by Smith in 1970 1

A consistent cyclic pattern of daily confirmed cases in an almost harmonic oscillating nature is observed from both total number of the Covid-19 cases worldwide as well as local and regional data. In this paper, We find that the observed phenomena can be explained through manipulations on our proposed simulation models. Borrowing inspiration from existing SIR and SEIR model, an initial model with the concept of infection cycle is introduced to dissect epidemic progression temporally. A second model is constructed by taking into account free moving agents on a large sized grid board to dissect epidemic progression spatially. Thus, we established a hierarchical representation of the epidemiological progression with the former as the more abstract layer and the latter as the more detailed. We proposed various mechanism that potentially can give rise to the cyclic nature observed. Out of all possible mechanisms, symptom delay factor d 2 , early screening/contact tracing, and intra-weekly reporting changes stood as the most promising explanations for the observed cyclic nature. The presence of symptom delay factor d 2 suggests that the cyclic nature is an intrinsic characteristics of the disease itself so that there possibly exists an asymptomatic phase followed by an incubation period before the onset of clinical symptoms. On the other hand, The presence of early screening/contact tracing, and 1

The Covid-19 pandemic which started in December 2019 has caused a tremendous impact on the life, health, and economy on the globe and situation remains grim. With 2 months of data accumulation, we now attempt to predict the future trend of the outbreak. We predict that 1.8 million as the final number of confirmed cases for Europe, 1.4 million as the final number of confirmed cases for Russia, 4~5 million as the more likely final number of confirmed cases and an optimistic projection of 2.1 million cases for United States, For the rest of the world, much uncertainty remains, in a more optimistic scenario, 5.4 million cases. In less optimistic scenario, 74.7 million cases. The number of cases worldwide is estimated to be 13.33 million as the lower bound and 85.26 million as the upper bound, or little over 1% of the total population of the world. A global peak in daily reported cases could happen as soon as late May, or could be as late as the end of the year. The overall rate death ranges from 11.2% for Europe, to 9.5% for US, to 2.6% for Russia, and 10% for the rest of the world. Overall, the final number of deaths are expected to be 1.23 million at the lower bound and 9.2 million at the upper bound. In the more optimistic scenario, the pandemic will be controlled within the year worldwide but could potentially span up to 3 years. During the study, we find that it is critical to reduce the basic reproduction number R 0 as low as possible and as quickly as possible to be < 1. A slight variation in basic reproduction number contributes to drastically different path of growth overtime.

Most recent development of Wing flying suit[11] and Parabounce’s indoor floating balloon
bicycle[10] offers some of the pre-requisite of a commercial-viable human powered flight at low speed and low altitude. In this paper, both new designs for human powered flight, its supporting infrastructure changes and accommodations, as well as the most significant economic of scale, making the project affordable to most consumers in developed countries will be discussed.

The discovery of exoplanets and possible future detection of exomoons led to the question if any relationship holds between the mass of its host star and mass of its planets. That is, if the mass of planets is constrained by the final mass of the hosting star. If relationship such as this exists, then several key questions can be answered. First of all, based on the mass of the star, what is the upper limit mass budget available for the creation of terrestrial planets. Secondly, if we know the mass budget availability, then what is the upper limit of the mass budget for the water in the system. Thirdly, finding the probability of the formation of exomoons with sizes comparable to earth around Jovian planets. Fourthly, explaining the rare occurrence of Jupiter sized planets around red dwarf systems.

The emergence of intelligence is a relatively recent phenomena throughout the cosmos. The total number of habitable extraterrestrial planets within the Milky Way capable of supporting advanced, intelligent life within the next 500 Myr is <969. Most of which are earth-like orbiting around a single star with mass ranges from 0.712 to 1 solar mass. No exomoons are capable of supporting advanced life, and a negligible number of low mass binary systems (<0.712 solar mass) are habitable. The nearest extraterrestrial industrial civilization lies at least 51.85 million light years away, and possibly at least 100 million light years or beyond. No extraterrestrial civilization arises before 119 Mya within the observable universe, and no extraterrestrial civilization arises before 138 Mya within the universe by co-moving distance. Despite great distances between the nearest civilizations and the low probability of emergence within our vicinity, given the sheer size of the universe, the total number of intelligent extraterrestrial civilizations likely approaches infinity or \left(\frac{1}{4.4\cdot10^{7}}\right)^{3}\cdot3.621\cdot10^{6}\cdot10^{10^{10^{122}}} if the universe is finitely bounded. Based on incentives for economic growth, all civilizations tend to expands near the speed of light and will eventually universally connect with each other via wormhole networks. Within such a network, the farthermost distances traversable from earth can be either infinite or 3.621\cdot10^{6}\cdot10^{10^{10^{122}}}light years in radius if the universe is finitely bounded...