Earthquake Hazard and Risk

The mitigation of deaths and injuries is of primary concern to all disaster prevention efforts. It is to the specific causes of deaths and injuries that we must look for fundamental guidance in disaster risk reduction and public education. Disaster epidemiology provides the important evidence basis for identifying and prioritising effective structural and non-structural mitigation and environmental protection measures to be taken at all levels of society, as well as for planning for disaster response and for behavioural guidance during and after onset. Epidemiological data found in the literature is compared for individual, built environment, hazard, mitigation, and response level variables. This evidence lends important credibility to several key recommendations to the public in the areas of structural and non-structural safety, response skills and provisions. Finally, community-based training for disaster response is strongly indicated by the evidence that ‘the people around us’ a...

Aim: This research evaluates the difficulties which currently prevent performance-based earthquake engineering from being effectively implemented in Italy, Greece and Turkey.

Objectives: 1) Explore how effectively performance-based earthquake engineering is developing in Italy,
Greece and Turkey. 2) Determine how a proactive approach, encouraging use of performance-based earthquake
engineering where possible, can offer a clear advantage over traditional methods of seismic engineering. 3) Outline the importance of investing in performance-based seismic design strictly according to regional capacity and necessity.
4) Show how government regulation is a necessary stimulus for long-term investment required by performance-based earthquake engineering.

Hypothesis: Performance-based earthquake engineering has great potential if the appropriate organisations address the principal issues of inadequate design procedure. Italy, Greece and Turkey must each overcome their national budgetary constraints before this new approach can receive necessary support and prove its effectiveness in these countries.

Strong earthquakes can cause damage to the structures, such as deviation from the vertical axis due to horizontal forces. The risk for the buildings (masonry, etc), is to fall down because of aftershocks. The decision for shoring them ought to weight factors such as available time, materials, technicians, static system, cost, alternative solutions, historicity, usage of a building etc. This paper reviews the types of shoring for constructions. Some of the methods considered are the single raking shoring, or shoring using displaced rakers, "flying shoring", etc. The advantages and disadvantages of the various methods of shoring are investigated, analyzed and discussed. There are highlighted useful technical details, references about preconditions, guidelines for safer shoring, and instructions on the connections of the beams (about nailing and about risks due to wedges), etc. All these are useful factors to be studied, so as practical considerations to be provided. The critical analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of the shoring methods, leads to the optimal shoring decision. The paper suggests a fast way for choosing the most appropriate method, using the most important factors. The post-seismic sequence can aggravate the damage of the construction, modify the methodology to be followed, or ultimately lead to a completely different solution. The suggested "tool" for the optimal selection of the shoring is also a useful guide, for the new situation about constructions that exists in post-seismic period.

Probabilistic methods to evaluate the seismic vulnerability of reinforced concrete (RC)frames are largely used in the context of performance based design and assessment, often de-scribing the structural response using global engineering demand parameters (EDPs) such as theinterstory drift. While such EDPs are able to synthetically describe the structural behavior, theuse of intermediate or local parameters of RC frames without seismic detailing can enable a morerealistic and thorough description of failure mechanisms for structural vulnerability. This study proposes an optimized methodology for the probabilistic evaluation of seismic demand of low ductility RC frames by exploring a range of intermediate, local and global EDPs, identifying ap-propriate regression models and comparing performances of different ground motion intensity measures used in the probabilistic analysis. Moreover, a probabilistic methodology for assessing the vulnerability of buildings retrofitted by means of dissipative braces is proposed. The method-ology use local EDP in order to develop single component and system fragility curves before andafter the retrofit. The proposed approach allows to highlight the possible changes in the mostsignificant collapse modalities before and after the retrofit and to evaluate the effectiveness of theretrofit by taking into account the probabilistic properties of the seismic behavior of the consid-ered systems. A benchmark 2-dimensional reinforced concrete frame with low ductility capacity isconsidered as case study. The frame is designed for gravity-loads only and does not comply with modern anti-seismic code requirements. It is retrofitted by introducing elasto-plastic dissipativebraces designed for different levels of their target base-shear capacity, following a design methodinvolving the pushover analysis of the bare frame. The obtained results show the effectiveness of the use of component level vulnerability evaluation of low ductility frames, and the effectivenessof the methodology in describing the changes in the performance due to retrofit. The proposedmethodology also allows testing the effectiveness of this simplified criterion employed for the de-sign of braces.

Abstract. Rapid loss estimation after potentially damaging earthquakes is critical for effective emergency response
and public information. A methodology and software package,
ELER-Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine, for rapid
estimation of earthquake shaking and losses throughout the
Euro-Mediterranean region was developed under the Joint
Research Activity-3 (JRA3) of the EC FP6 Project entitled
“Network of Research Infrastructures for European
Seismology-NERIES”. Recently, a new version (v2.0) of
ELER software has been released. The multi-level methodology
developed is capable of incorporating regional variability
and uncertainty originating from ground motion predictions,
fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical
and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and
the associated vulnerability relationships. Although primarily
intended for quasi real-time estimation of earthquake
shaking and losses, the routine is also equally capable of incorporating
scenario-based earthquake loss assessments.
This paper introduces the urban earthquake loss assessment
module (Level 2) of the ELER software which makes
use of the most detailed inventory databases of physical and
social elements at risk in combination with the analytical vulnerability
relationships and building damage-related casualty
vulnerability models for the estimation of building damage
and casualty distributions, respectively. Spectral capacitybased
loss assessment methodology and its vital components
are presented. The analysis methods of the Level 2 module,
i.e. Capacity Spectrum Method (ATC-40, 1996), Modified
Acceleration-Displacement Response Spectrum Method
(FEMA 440, 2005), Reduction Factor Method (Fajfar, 2000)
and Coefficient Method (ASCE 41-06, 2006), are applied to
the selected building types for validation and verification purposes. The damage estimates are compared to the results
obtained from the other studies available in the literature,
i.e. SELENA v4.0 (Molina et al., 2008) and ATC-55 (Yang,
2005). An urban loss assessment exercise for a scenario
earthquake for the city of Istanbul is conducted and physical
and social losses are presented. Damage to the urban
environment is compared to the results obtained from similar
software, i.e. KOERILoss (KOERI, 2002) and DBELA
(Crowley et al., 2004). The European rapid loss estimation
tool is expected to help enable effective emergency response,
on both local and global level, as well as public information

The purpose of this article is to examine some of the underlying reasons why populations are especially vulnerable to earthquakes in Pakistan, India, Nepal, Bangladesh and Myanmar, and why a perceived disconnect exists between earthquake resistant engineering and those populations most at risk from earthquakes. The history and tectonic setting of earthquakes in the region is critically examined. The article notes that urban growth and changes in building styles have rendered urban populations more vulnerable than in the past, but that there exist numerous hidden factors within the structure of societies that act to thwart the best intentions of seismologists and engineers to apply ubiquitous earthquake resistance.

Currently, regional coseismic landslide hazard analyses require comprehensive historical landslide
inventories as well as detailed geotechnical data. Consequently, such analyses have not been possible where
these data are not available. A newapproach is proposed herein to assess coseismic landslide hazard at regional
scale for specific earthquake scenarios in areas without historical landslide inventories. The proposed model
employs fuzzy logic and geographic information systems to establish relationships between causative factors
and coseismic slope failures in regions with well-documented and substantially complete coseismic landslide
inventories. These relationships are then utilized to estimate the relative probability of landslide occurrence
in regions with neither historical landslide inventories nor detailed geotechnical data. Statistical analyses
of inventories from the 1994 Northridge and 2008 Wenchuan earthquakes reveal that shaking intensity,
topography, and distance from active faults and streams are the main controls on the spatial distribution of
coseismic landslides. Average fuzzy memberships for each factor are developed and aggregated to model the
relative coseismic landslide hazard for both earthquakes. The predictive capabilities of the models are assessed
and show good-to-excellent model performance for both events. These memberships are then applied to the
1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, using only a digital elevation model, active faultmap, and isoseismal data, replicating
prediction of a future event in a region lacking historic inventories and/or geotechnical data. This similarly
results in excellent model performance, demonstrating the model’s predictive potential and confirming it can
be meaningfully applied in regions where previous methods could not. For such regions, this method may
enable a greater ability to analyze coseismic landslide hazard from specific earthquake scenarios, allowing for
mitigation measures and emergency response plans to be better informed of earthquake-related hazards.

The idea of an Intensity scale based on coseismic environmental effects started to ripe early in the'80s following the macroseismic surveys of strong earthquakes, in particular, for Italy, those occurred in 1976 (Friuli) and 1980 (Irpinia-Basilicata). In fact, during such surveys, it was often observed that intensity could not be reliably evaluated only based on damage to artefacts. This was specially true for sparsely populated areas and for the highest degrees, because it was extremely difficult to estimate damage above degree X. Environmental ...

Seismic hazard assessment of an earthquake prone region involves a wide range analysis of seismological and geological data and engineering characterization of geological materials. The earthquake history of Bangladesh and surrounding region indicates that the country is seismically active. The regional geological setup of the landmass is complex due to the juncture of Himalayan Arc of northeast India and the India-Myanmar plate subduction to the east. The plain-land topography of Bangladesh musk the subsurface depositional variations and all geological structures except in the hilly region. Seismic hazard assessment is not simple for such covered complex geological environment.

This paper present the basic factors related to geology, tectonic environment and geotechnical conditions for rationale seismic hazard assessments. An attempt is made to understand the relationships among tectonic setting, structural and crustal configuration of Bengal basin to classify the earthquake source areas. Three types of earthquake sources areas are identified: a. Intra-plate source areas, b. Transitional source area and c. Inter-plate source area. The seismic behaviour of these source areas is deeply related with the tectonic structure and basement or crustal configuration of Bengal basin.

Epicenter locations of recent earthquakes in Bangladesh indicate that there are number of active faults in these source areas. The physical attributes and exact locations are not known. A detailed investigation on the geometry and mechanics of these active faults is essential to determine the relationship among geo-technical behaviour of materials, local geological constraints and ground response. An account on these relationships are presented in this paper.

In this work, the control exerted by the stress axes orientation on the evolution of seismic sequences developing in
compressive and extensional regimes is analysed. According to the Anderson fault theory, the vertical stress is the minimum
principal stress in compressional tectonic regimes, whereas it is the maximum principal stress in extensional regimes. Using
Mohr diagrams and discussing the present knowledge about the distribution of vertical and horizontal stress with depth we show
that, in absence of localised fluid overpressure, such changes imply that thrust and normal faults become more unstable at
shallower and greater depths, respectively. These opposite mechanical behaviours predict, in a rather isotropic body, easier
rupture at shallower level in compressional regimes later propagating downward. On the contrary, a first deep rupture
propagating upward is expected in extensional regimes. This is consistent with observations from major earthquakes from
different areas in the world. We show that the exceptions to downward migration along thrusts occur along steeply inclined
faults and probably imply localised supra-hydrostatic fluid pressures. Moreover, we show that the inversion of the meaning of
the lithostatic load has consequences also for the role of topography. High topography, increasing the vertical load, should
inhibit earthquake development in compressional environments and should favour it in extensional settings. Although several
factors, such as geodynamic processes, local tectonic features and rock rheology, are likely to control earthquake locations,
stress distribution and tectonic regime, these model predictions are consistent with seismicity distribution in Italy, central Andes
and Himalaya. In these areas, large to medium compressional earthquakes occur at the low elevation borders of compressional
mountain belts, whereas large extensional earthquakes occur in correspondence to maximum elevations.

""The origin of the earthquakes within the continental intraplate has been the subject of debate over long time. We examine the correlation of North Egypt unstable continental shelf earthquakes using five geologic and geophysical data sets:  a newly compiled age-province map, Bouguer gravity data, aeromagnetic anomalies, tectonic stress field, and GPS velocity rate measurements. Based on the Qualitative and quantitative interpretation of these five data sets we inferred that: 1) although surface features disappear of unstable shelf crust, Phanerozoic crust shows clear correlation of crustal age and earthquake frequency. 2) The seismic ages are during Precambrian and Paleozoic unstable shelf crust. 3) The seismicity is correlated with the major tectonic events in the geologic history of Egypt. 4) Seismicity is correlated with the NW-SE structural trend, which reflects the extension of the historical tectonic events until present rifting of Red Sea and Gulf of Suez. Unstable continental shelf seismicity mainly: (1) follows the NW-SE lineaments; and (2) forms clusters at what have been termed stress concentrators (e.g., igneous intrusions and intersecting faults) at E-W and EN-WS structural trends. Seismicity level of unstable shelf is moderate and concentrates around Cairo province. The correlation of seismicity with NW-SE–oriented lineaments implies that a continuation of unstable continental shelf seismicity is related to the accretion and rifting processes that have formed the Red Sea and the Gulf of Suez which still records active rifting. An analysis of hypocentral depths for unstable continental shelf earthquakes shows that the frequency and the moment magnitude of the events are nearly uniform for the entire 0–25 km depths over which crustal earthquakes extend while the larger events have deepest focal depths 20-25 km. We conclude that the distribution of the unstable continental region earthquakes in North Egypt is consistent with the existence of deeply penetrating crustal faults that have been reactivated in the present stress field. However the aseismic structure trends in the south delta basin for the past 150+ yr can be activated with the local stress accumulation at long recurrence period and raise the possibility that the south delta basin has a significant seismic potential. Based on the observations summarized here, we infer that the north unstable continental shelf earthquake hazards are high with the NW_SE and E-W trends that should be taken in consideration from govern authorities and planers to mitigate an expected huge risk in the extremely dense inhabitant provinces of Cairo and Nile Delta Basin.
"""""

An 8 Richter Scale (RS) earthquake struck West Sumatra on Wednesday, 30 September 2009, at 17.16 pm which led to huge number of landslides. Hence a comprehensive landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM) should be produced in order to reduce the damages to people and infrastructures. In the international landslide literature, various statistical methods such as frequency ratio (FR) and logistic regression (LR) have been widely used individually for LSM, but they have some weaknesses. FR which is able to perform bivariate statistical analysis (BSA) assesses the influence of classes of each conditioning factor on landslide occurrence. However, the correlation between the factors is mostly neglected. On the other hand, LR is able to analyze the relationship among the factors while it is not capable to evaluate the classes of each landslide conditioning factor. This paper aims to propose an ensemble method of FR and LR in order to overcome their weak points. For LSM, a landslide inventory map with a total of 87 landslide locations was extracted from various sources. Then the landslide inventory was randomly divided into two datasets 70% for training the models and the remaining 30% was used for validation purpose. The landslide conditioning factors consist of: altitude, curvature, river, SPI, rainfall, soil type, soil texture, land use/cover (LULC), peak ground acceleration (PGA), geology, slope, aspect, lineament and topographic wetness index (TWI). Four PGA of 7.5, 8, 8.6 and 9 were acquired and PGA 8 which was related to the 2009 earthquake was used to generate the model. Finally, the produced landslide susceptibility maps were validated using an area under the (ROC) curve method. For the model which was derived by PGA 8, the validation results showed 84% and 78% success and prediction rates respectively. Furthermore, the prediction rates for the models made by PGA 7.2, 8.6 and 9 are 79%, 78% and 81% respectively. The result proved the reasonable efficiency of the proposed method for earthquake induced landslide susceptibility mapping. Also the proposed ensemble method can be used in other hazard studies as it is capable to produce rapid and accurate assessment for disaster management and decision making.

► A kind of Elastic Composite, Reinforced Lightweight Concrete (ECRL.C) with the mentioned specifics is a type of "Resilient Composite Systems (RCS)" in which, contrary to the basic geometrical assumption of the flexure theory in Solid Mechanics, "the strain changes in the beam height during bending" is typically "Nonlinear". (The RCS could be counted as "The Methodically Reinforced Nonlinear Porous Materials", also having the high specific modulus of resilience in flexure.)

♦ Through employing this integrated structure, with significantly high strain capability and modulus of resilience in bending, we can achieve the high bearing capacities in beams with the secure fracture pattern, in less weight.

♦ Due to the system particulars and its behavior in bending, the usual calculation of the necessary equilibrium steel amount to attain the low-steel bending sections with the secure fracture pattern in the beams and its related limitations do not become propounded. Thereby, the strategic deadlock of the high possibility of the brittle fracture pattern in the bending elements made of the usual reinforced lightweight concretes, especially about the low-thickness bending elements as slabs, is unlocked.

♦ This simple, applied technology and the related components and systems can have several applications in the road and building industries. (It can also be used in making the resilient pieces and constructions "with appropriate behavior and high resistance against severe blasts and shocks.)

♦ Regarding the "strategic importance of Lightweight and Integrated Construction in the practical increase of the resistance and safety against earthquake" and considering the appropriate behavior of this "resilient", durable structure against the dynamic loads, shakes, impacts, blasts, and shocks and the possibility of making some lightweight and insulating, non-brittle, reinforced sandwich panels and pieces, this resilient system and its components can especially be useful in the "seismic areas".

♦ This system can also be employed in constructing the vibration and impact absorber bearing pieces & slabs, which can be used in the "Railroad & Subway Structures" too.

♦ Here, the "Resilient Composite Systems (RCS)" and particularly, the ECRLC as a type of the RCS have been concisely presented. [By the way, an instance of the said new structure and its components and the results of some performed experiments (as bending loading and compressive loading of the slabs made of this structure, similar to ASTM E 72 Standard) have been shown in the related pictures & figures.]
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/ ● Key Words: Strength of materials (solid mechanics), Civil (construction), Materials, Earthquake (resistance and safety), Resilient concrete (flexible concrete, bendable concrete, elastic concrete), Composite concrete, Lightweight concrete, Reinforced concrete, Fibered concrete, Lightweight and integrated construction, Rail (railroad, railway), Subway, Road, Bridge, Resilience, Energy absorption, Fracture pattern, Non-linear, Strain changes, Beam, Ductility, Toughness, Insulating (insulation), Thin, Slab, Roof, Ceiling, Wall (partition), Building, Tower, Plan of mixture, Insulating reinforced lightweight pieces, 3d, Sandwich panel, Dry mix, Plaster, Foam, Expanded polystyrene (EPS), Polypropylene, Pozzolan, Porous matrix (Pored matrix), Mesh (lattice), Cement, RCS, ECRLC
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/ ► Contents:
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* ABSTRACT
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* I. INTRODUCTION
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* II. WHAT ARE THE RESILIENT COMPOSITE SYSTEMS
.
- A. General Review
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- B. Components
.
. - 1) Mesh or Lattice
. - 2) Fibers or Strands
. - 3) "Matrix" With the Suitable Hollow "Pores (Voids)" and/or "Lightweight Aggregates" in its Context
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- C. More Explanations About the RCS
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- D. Why Are These Systems Called "Composite"?
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- E. The General Structural Particulars and Functional Criteria as the Necessary Specifications of the Compound Materials Generally Called "Resilient Composite Systems"
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. - 1) General Structural Criteria
. - 2) Functional Criteria (Required Specifications)
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* III. "ELASTIC COMPOSITE REINFORCED LIGHTWEIGHT CONCRETE (ECRLC)" AS A TYPE OF THE RESILIENT COMPOSITE SYSTEMS (RCS)
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- An Instance of the Lightweight Concrete That Could be Used in Making the ECRLC
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* IV. REVIEW OF SOME EXPERIMENTS, AND MORE DESCRIPTION ABOUT ECRLC
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* V. SUPPLEMENTARY ELEMENTS
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* VI. APPLICATIONS
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* VII. FINAL REVIEW
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* ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
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* REFERENCES 
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***
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/ ● General Review:
.
• A kind of "Elastic Composite, Reinforced Lightweight Concrete" with the said specifics is a type of the "Resilient Composite Systems (R.C.S.)" in which, contrary to the basic geometrical assumption of flexure theory in the Solid Mechanics, the strain changes in the beam height during bending is typically "Non-linear".
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• Indeed, the RCS, as the Elastic Composite, Reinforced Lightweight Concrete (ECRLC), do not behave as most of the solid materials in bending.
.
• In the "Resilient Composite Systems", distributed pores and/or appropriate lightweight aggregates or beads, accompanied by the reticular structure of the strengthened conjoined matrix, bring about the expedient internal shape changes during bending and continuing the elasticity in bending with the said nonlinearly pattern. This means better distribution of the stresses and strains and better utilizing the potential capacities of the employed reinforcements in bending and tension; whereas, in the usual lightweight concretes for instance, distributed hollow pores (such as the gas bulbs in the cellular concretes) or lightweight aggregates (such as Plastic, Rubber or polystyrene beads or any other kind of lightweight aggregates such as Perlite and Vermiculite) decrease the modulus of resilience in bending and could increase "the possibility of beam fracture of brittle and primary compressive type" in bending (compared to the concrete with higher density) according to the case.
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• In this way, by using the mentioned method to make the said particular composite systems, we could considerably increase the modulus of resilience and bearing capacity in bending "together with" significant decrease of the weight and also the possibility of beam fracture of primary compressive type. Through making these particular integrated functioning systems, for the first time, the said (paradoxical) properties have been concomitantly fulfilled in "one functioning unit" altogether.
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• Respect to the special pattern of the strain changes during bending in the particular Resilient Composite System termed ECRLC, this system as an integrated functioning unit with the reticular arrangement and texture has more strain capability (particularly within the elastic limit), energy absorption and load bearing capacities in bending compared to the usual reinforced concrete beams.
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• Thereby, through employing this applied structure, solving some of the main problems in lightweight concretes application, especially the deadlock of brittle and insecure being of fracture pattern in many of the usual reinforced lightweight concrete structures, is provided; reaching to the high bearing capacities in bending elements (even with low dimensions & weights) is to hand, and getting access to a simple and practical opportunity for "qualitative development of possibilities of using lightweight concretes" (especially with oven-dry densities of < 1350-1400kg/m3 and compressive strengths of <14-17mpa, and even with oven-dry densities of < 800kg/m3) is conceivable.
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• Naturally, by more studies in the field, these structures and their applications in various fields could be developed more.
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***
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/ ► FULL TEXT (Open Access):
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- http://arxiv.org/abs/1510.03933 
( https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1510/1510.03933.pdf ) ;
.
. Kamyar Esmaeili: "Elastic Composite Reinforced Lightweight Concrete as a Type of Resilient Composite Systems";
The Internet Journal of Innovative Technology and Creative Engineering (IJITCE); 2012; 2(8): 1-22.
- http://ia800305.us.archive.org/34/items/IJITCE/vol2no801.pdf [Also archived at: http://www.webcitation.org/6B2pFPpBh ] ;
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- https://www.scribd.com/doc/11530978/Elastic-Composite-Reinforced-Lightweight-Concrete-ECRLC-as-a-type-of-Resilient-Composite-Systems-RCS-http-arxiv-org-abs-1510-03933 ; 
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- https://sites.google.com/site/NEWSTRUCTURE1 ;
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- https://sites.google.com/site/newstructure1/publications-page/ELASTIC%20COMPOSITE%2C%20REINFORCED%20LIGHTWEIGHT%20CONCRETE%20AS%20A%20TYPE%20OF%20RESILIENT%20COMPOSITE%20SYSTEMS.pdf ;
.
- http://www.pdf-archive.com/2015/09/22/elasticcomposite-reinforcedlightweightconcreteasatypeofrcs/elasticcomposite-reinforcedlightweightconcreteasatypeofrcs.pdf ;
.
- The link to the document in PDF format on this site:
file:///C:/Users/pc5/Downloads/ELASTIC_COMPOSITE_REINFORCED_LIGHTWEIGHT.pdf ;
.
- ...

The paper illustrates a probabilistic methodology for assessing the vulnerability of low-ductility reinforced concrete (RC) buildings retrofitted by dissipative braces. The aim is to highlight the most important parameters controlling the capacity of these systems and specific aspects concerning the response uncertainties. The proposed methodology is based on local engineering demand parameters (EDPs) for monitoring the seismic response and on the development of component and system fragility curves before and after the retrofit. Its capability is tested considering a RC frame designed for gravity-loads only retrofitted by elasto-plastic dissipative braces. The results show the effectiveness of the methodology in describing the changes in the response and in the failure modalities due to the retrofit. Moreover, the retrofit effectiveness is evaluated by introducing proper synthetic parameters describing the fragility curves and highlighting the importance of employing local rather than global EDPs in the seismic risk evaluation of low-ductility frames.

İstanbul Olası Deprem Kayıp Tahminleri (2009) çalışması kapsamında derlenen İstanbul bina envanterinde yaklaşık 1,2 milyon bina bulunmaktadır. Bu binaların %15’i (180.000 civarı) 2000 yılı ve sonrasında inşa edilmiş, 5 ve üzeri katlı, betonarme çerçeve tipi yapılardır. Bu çalışmada, 2000 yılından sonra inşa edilen ve Afet Bölgelerinde Yapılacak
Yapılar Hakkında Yönetmelik (1998)’e [1] göre tasarlandıkları varsayılan bu binalar için, tasarıma esas deprem seviyesi altında yapısal hasar ve yapısal hasar kaynaklı mali kayıp tahminleri sunulmaktadır. Bu amaçla, ELER (Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine) [2] yazılımının kapasite spektrumu yöntemini uygulayan Kentsel Deprem Kayıpları Tahmin Modülü (Hancılar vd., 2010) [3] kullanılmıştır. Spektral ivme ve yerdeğiştirmeye bağlı
hasar analizlerinde deprem talebi %5 sönümlü ivme tepki spektrumu ile temsil edilirken bina yatay yük taşıyıcı sistemi kapasite eğrisi ile sunulur ve spektral yerdeğiştirmeler cinsinden kırılganlık fonksiyonları yoluyla farklı hasar seviyeleri için hasar olasılıkları hesaplanır. Analizlerde deprem etkileri, 50 yılda %10 aşılma olasılığı (475 yıllık yinelenme süresi) için Şeşetyan vd. (2016)’da [4] sunulan deprem tehlike modeli ile elde edilen zemin bağımlı spektral ivmeler (0,2s ve 1.0s için) kullanılarak oluşturulan tepki spektrumları ile dikkate alınmıştır. Hasar analizleri, bina kapasite eğrileri ve kırılganlık fonksiyonları için üç farklı model dikkate alınarak aynı deprem seviyesi altında gerçekleştirilmiştir: i) Hancılar ve Çaktı (2015)’te [5] sunulan, yapısal analizlere dayalı kapasite eğrileri ve kırılganlık
fonksiyonları; ii) İstanbul Olası Deprem Kayıp Tahminleri (İBB-2009) [6] çalışmasında kullanılan, geçmiş analitik çalışmalara ve uzman görüşü/yorumuna dayanan yapısal kırılganlık fonksiyonları ile taşıyıcı sistem kapasite eğrileri ve iii) Benzer bina sınıfları için HAZUS-MH MR4 (2004) Teknik Kılavuzu’nda [7] verilen kapasite eğrileri ve kırılganlık
fonksiyonları. Üç modele ait sonuçlar hasarlı bina sayıları ve dağılımları ile yapısal hasar kaynaklı mali kayıplar cinsinden karşılaştırılmıştır.

Earthquake risk can be quantified in terms of the estimated numbers of human casualties and of damaged buildings as well as the monetary losses. The information required for the assessment of earthquake risk in a given region includes the expected level of ground shaking intensity (i.e., the seismic hazard), inventory data for building stock at risk, identification of predominant building typologies and of their vulnerability characteristics , and spatial distribution of number of inhabitants. This study presents an indicative assessment of earthquake risk associated with the building stock in Muscat, the capital city of the Sultanate of Oman. For this purpose, building inventory and demographic data for the city are compiled in GIS environment. The buildings are classified to identify their damageability/vulnerability characteristics, and predominant building typologies are determined. For the estimation of casualties, Muscat population data are further analyzed to calculate number of occupants in the exposed building stock. Spectral acceleration– displacement based damage estimation methodology is implemented for risk calculations. Site-specific ground motions in terms spectral accelerations obtained from the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for 475-and 2475-year return periods are considered for the representation of earthquake demand in damage analyses. Assessment of damage to buildings and estimation of casualties are obtained using analytical fragility relationships and building damage related casualty–vulnerability models, respectively. Earthquake risk maps illustrating the spatial distribution of number of damaged buildings at different damage states are presented for the considered levels of seismic hazard.

When a sudden-onset natural disaster strikes a developing country, the state of communications and infrastructure in remote areas may be fragile, delaying the start of any regional or international intervention. A delay of even a couple of days (Alexander 2000a:46; Alexander 2002:198; Shakhramanian et al 2000:148) means that certain forms of emergency relief, such as Search And Rescue (SAR) operations in collapsed structures, are no longer beneficial. To improve international relief to disasters in these situations, this study aims to identify steps in the decision process leading up to an international intervention that could benefit from the application of a Decision Support System (DSS). First, user requirements on a DSS are identified through interviews, observation and content-analysis of many different organisations’ internal guidelines. Following this, the DSS options that fulfil the requirements are identified. Fifty-nine earthquake events in central Asia which occurred between 1992 and 2003 are adopted as case studies for this purpose. For each case study, quantitative data on loss, needs and international response have been collected using content- and frequency-analysis of the documentation produced by stakeholders in the international response. The case study data are used to determine which data sources are of benefit to decision makers using each data source’s time of availability and content. Considering the options provided by the identified data sources, a prototype DSS is developed. The prototype builds on the existing Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System (GDACS) to provide a novel type of decision support to potential responders who are located outside the affected country. The intention is to notify decision makers of the occurrence of events that fit the profile of events they have responded to in the past. This could speed up their intelligence-gathering and ultimately provide a faster international response. Using the historical events, ordinal logistic regression is applied to develop a numerical model that produces a projection of the international attention in future events. The study applies the frequency of United Nations Situation Reports as the quantitative indicator of the international attention to past events. The prototype output for a future earthquake is the likelihood of it falling into one of the following categories: (1) marginal international attention; (2) intermediate international attention; or (3) substantial international attention. The accuracy of the prototype proved too low for direct use by practitioners. However, after the development of the prototype, ways to improve the accuracy and to make the prototype applicable to other hazards and geographical regions are suggested.

GPS data indicate clockwise rotation of two large blocks in NE India at roughly 1degree/million years. The rotation of the Brahmaputra Valley reduces convergence rates across the eastern Himalaya to values similar or slightly less than this in the central Himalaya.  To reconcile uplift and 5 mm/yr convergence rates across the Dauki fault and Shillong plateau  it is necessary that rotation started in the past 4-6 million years, simultaneously lowering rates across the Bhutan Himalaya to current rates of ≈16 mm/yr.

(The Sparta fault, southern Greece: Tectonic geomorphology, seismic hazard mapping and conditional probabilities): The Sparta Fault system is a major structure approximately 64km long that bounds the eastern flanks of the Taygetos Mountain front (2.400 m) and shapes the present-day Sparta basin. This fault is examined and described in terms of its geometry, segmentation, drainage pattern and postglacial finite throw, emphasizing also how these parameters vary along strike the fault. Based on fault throw- ...

"The northern Adriatic plate underwent Permian-Mesozoic rifting and was later shortened by three orogenic belts (i.e., Apennines, Alps and Dinarides) developed along three independent subduction zones. The inherited Mesozoic horst and graben grain determined structural undulations of the three thrust belts. Salients developed in grabens or more shaly basins, whereas recesses formed regularly around horsts. A new interpretation of seismic reflection profiles, subsidence rates from stratigraphic analysis, and GPS data prove that the three orogens surrounding the northern Adriatic plate are still active. The NE-ward
migration of the Apennines subduction hinge determines the present-day faster subsidence rate in the western side of the northern Adriatic ([1 mm/year). This is recorded also by the SW-ward dip of the foreland regional monocline, and the SW-ward increase of the depth of the Tyrrhenian sedimentary layer, as well as the increase in thickness of the Pliocene and Pleistocene sediments. These data indicate the dominant influence of the Apennines subduction, which controls the asymmetric subsidence in the northern Adriatic realm. The Dinarides front has been tilted by the Apennines subduction hinge, as shown by the eroded Dalmatian anticlines subsiding in the eastern Adriatic Sea. GPS data suggest that southward tilting of the western and central Southern Alps, whereas the eastern Southern Alps are uplifting. The obtained strain rates are on average within 20 nstrain/year. The horizontal shortening obtained from GPS velocities at the front of the three belts surrounding the northern Adriatic plate are about 2–3 mm/year (Northern Apennines), 1–2 mm/year (Southern Alps), and\1 mm/year (Dinarides). The shortening directions tend to be perpendicular to the thrust belt fronts. The areas where the strain rate sharply decreases along a tectonic feature (e.g., the Ferrara salient, the Venetian foothills front) are proposed to be occupied by locked structures where stress is accumulating in the brittle layer and thus
seismically prone. Finally, we speculate that, since the effects of three independent subduction zones coexist and overlap in the same area, plate boundaries are passive features."

This paper makes the case for natural disaster emergency planning to be incorporated into sustainable tourism strategies, using seismic risk scenario planning as a technique, and
the Southern Alps of the South island of New Zealand as an example. The Alpine Fault is a 450-km-long geological structure running the length of the Southern Alps in New Zealand. Paleoseismic evidence suggests that a significant earthquake of magnitude (M)∼ 7.8–8.0 is overdue. Coincident with this area of high seismic potential is a growing tourism industry, capitalising on the region’s international reputation for nature-based
tourism experiences. The scenario planning approach uses an isoseismal modelling methodology to describe a range of specific vulnerabilities in the tourism sector and highlight the physical outcomes and consequences for tourism-related infrastructure, transport, food supply, rescue, and survival likely to result from a future M8 earthquake on the Alpine Fault. Interviews with hazard management agencies investigated how tourism is considered in the context of current hazard management policies, and the urgent need to bring industry policies into partnership with other planning agencies and policies. Risk management is shown to be essential to address the triple bottom line of sustainable tourism management.

Despite the considerable work carried out in risk management, vulnerability indexes and aggregative assessments remain a serious issue. The main challenges facing vulnerability assessment are the collection, integration, and synthesis of large quantities of heterogeneous data to provide reliable estimations. This situation has led to the neglect of all significant interactions between the considered indicators, despite their being essential to vulnerability analysis. The scope of the article is to show that most obstacles to vulnerability assessment can be overcome by shifting the focus from absolute vulnerability assessment (i.e., the attempt to quantify an absolute level of weakness or resilience) to relative vulnerability assessment (i.e., the attempt to find out which populations and places are vulnerable and why). We propose a first attempt to assess relative vulnerability. The spectroscopy of urban vulnerability reveals the heterogeneity of vulnerability by focusing on the locally convergent specific characteristics and processes reinforcing (or reducing) vulnerability to inform the implementation of more targeted mitigation policies. This is a two-step approach, first focusing on the vulnerability underlying factors and establishing vulnerability profiles; the second step is to focus on their spatial distribution to confront each vulnerability profile to its multithreat exposure. The Lyon, France, and Bucharest, Romania, case studies reveal the risk transfers induced by some risk management policies and they highlight that vulnerability is a multidimensional phenomenon almost impossible to assess by using a single index. The two case studies also permit local multithreat comparisons as well as international comparisons. A pesar del considerable trabajo llevado a cabo sobre manejo de riesgos, los índices de vulnerabilidad y evaluaciones agregadas siguen siendo asunto serio. Los principales retos que se enfrentan en la evaluación de vulnerabilidad son la recolección, integración y síntesis de grandes cantidades de datos heterogéneos para generar cálculos confiables. Esta situación ha llevado a que se desechen todas las interacciones significativas entre los indicadores considerados, a pesar de ser esenciales para el análisis de la vulnerabilidad. El ámbito del artículo busca mostrar que la mayoría de los obstáculos a la evaluación de la vulnerabilidad pueden obviarse cambiando el foco de evaluación absoluta de la vulnerabilidad (es decir, el intento de cuantificar un nivel absoluto de debilidad o resiliencia) a uno de evaluación de la vulnerabilidad relativa (o sea, el intento de descubrir qué poblaciones y lugares son vulnerables, y por qué lo son). Formulamos una primera propuesta para evaluar la vulnerabilidad relativa. La espectroscopia de la vulnerabilidad urbana revela la heterogeneidad de vulnerabilidad al enfocarse en las características y procesos específicos localmente convergentes que refuerzan (o reducen) la vulnerabilidad para informar la implementación de políticas de mitigación más definidas. Se trata de un enfoque de dos etapas, que primero se enfoca en los factores ocultos de la vulnerabilidad y en establecer perfiles de vulnerabilidad; la segunda etapa consiste en concentrarse en su distribución espacial para confrontar cada perfil de vulnerabilidad con su exposición de amenaza múltiple. Los estudios de caso de Lyon, Francia y Bucarest, Rumania, revelan las transferencias de riesgo inducidos por algunas políticas de manejo de riesgos, a la vez que destacan que la vulnerabilidad es un fenómeno multidimensional casi imposible de evaluar utilizando un solo índice. Los dos estudios de caso permiten también hacer comparaciones locales de amenaza múltiple, lo mismo que comparaciones internacionales.

The assessment of structural damage due to seismic actions can be performed analytically by using various methods. Two of these methods, derived from very different approaches, are compared in the present paper. The first is based on the evaluation of the instrumental intensity, proposed by Sandi, and which is calibrated to match the values of the EMS-98 intensity scale. The second is based on the use of the spectral values of the Park-Ang damage index, computed for constant values of the strength coefficient, Cy. The two approaches are compared, based on the damage estimations they provide in the case of the moment magnitude Mw = 7.1 Vrancea earthquake of August 30, 1986, for various structural typologies existing in Romania at the date of this event and for different locations across the country. Each structural typology is described by structure type, height category and the value of seismic forces used in design, according to the three Romanian seismic codes that were enforced during successive time periods before the event. The computed damage is compared with information on actual damage reported after the earthquake. The overstrength demands imposed by the earthquake are also evaluated, in the damage index approach. The advantages and disadvantages of each approach are shown and conclusions are drawn concerning their future potential refinement.

► SUMMARY:

♦ The Resilient Composite Systems (R.C.S.) could be counted as "The Methodically Reinforced Nonlinear Porous Materials", also having the high specific modulus of resilience in flexure. They are the compound materials, with some particular structural properties, in which, contrary to the basic geometrical assumption of the flexure theory in Solid Mechanics, the strain changes in the beam height during bending is typically "Nonlinear". The Resilient Composite Systems are made by expediently creating the disseminated suitable hollow pores and/or by distributing the appropriate lightweight aggregates throughout the methodically reinforced, fibered conjoined matrix so that; "the strain changes in the beam height during bending" is typically "nonlinear". Thereby, by applying the mentioned method to make the said composite systems, "considerably increasing the modulus of resilience and the bearing capacity in bending" together with "the significant decrease of the weight" and "the removal of the beam fracture possibility of primary compressive type" have been feasible. Through making these particular consistently functioning systems, the above-stated paradoxical virtues have been concomitantly fulfilled in "one functioning unit" altogether.

♦ The RCS (with the mentioned general structural properties and specific functional criteria) whose cement materials include the "C-S-H (Calcium Silicate hydrate) crystals" have been termed "Elastic Composite, Reinforced Lightweight Concrete (E.C.R.L.C.)".

♦ The RCS and ECRLC as a kind of RCS could be used in many cases. For instance, "Constructing Lightweightly and Consistently", also with practically utilizing the RCS and ECRLC in particular, can be counted as the pivotal and practical tactic to effectively increase the resistance & safety of the constructions against "earthquake" and lateral forces, in the large extent. For example, using some lightweight and insulating, "non-brittle", reinforced sandwich panels or 3D-panels, "with the high modulus of resilience and appropriate behavior against the bending loads and impacts", for construction could be taken into consideration according to the case... [It is worth remarking that; contrary to the ECRLC, the usual reinforced lightweight concretes, especially in the very low densities, are dramatically brittle; they do not have the appropriate behavior and resistance against the high bending loads and impacts.]
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● "Resilient Composite Systems (RCS)":

♦ "Resilient Composite Systems" (RCS) are the compound materials, having some particular structural properties, in which, contrary to the basic geometrical assumption of the flexure theory in Solid Mechanics, the strain changes in the beam height during bending is typically "Nonlinear". The RCS could be counted as "The Methodically Reinforced Nonlinear Porous Materials", also having the high specific modulus of resilience in flexure. (Elastic Composite, Reinforced Lightweight Concrete; ECRLC is a type of RCS with the mentioned specifics.)

♦ Generally, the Resilient Composite Systems comprise these components as the main, necessary elements:
• 1) Mesh (Lattice);
• 2) Fibers or strands;
• 3) Conjoined matrix, having the disseminated suitable pores and/or the disseminated appropriate lightweight aggregates beads or particles. [Here, the general term of "lightweight aggregate" has a broad meaning, also including the polymeric and non-polymeric beads or particles.]

♦ The Resilient Composite Systems are made by creating the disseminated suitable hollow pores and/or by distributing the appropriate lightweight aggregates throughout the reinforced, fibered conjoined matrix so that; "the strain changes in the beam height during bending" is typically "nonlinear". Thereby, by applying the mentioned method to make the said particular composite systems, "considerably increasing the modulus of resilience and the bearing capacity in bending" together with "the significant decrease of the weight" and "the removal of the beam fracture possibility of primary compressive type" have been feasible. Through making these particular consistently (unitedly, integratedly) functioning systems, the stated paradoxical virtues have been concomitantly fulfilled in one functioning unit altogether.

♦ Generally, in these consistently functioning units, the amount and the use manner of the mentioned components in the organized system are so that; the reciprocal interactions among the components finally lead to the "typically nonlinear strain changes in the beam height during bending" (as the "basic functional character" of these systems with the specific testable criteria and indices) and the functional specifications fulfillment of the system.

♦ In the RCS in general, the main strategy to raise the modulus of resilience in bending is "increasing the strain capability of the system in bending" within the elastic limit.

♦ Here, the main tactic to realize the stated strategy is: "creating the suitable hollow pores and/or using the appropriate lightweight aggregates, all disseminated throughout the methodically reinforced conjoined matrix", to provide the possibility for occurring of the expedient internal deformities in the matrix during the bending course, which could lead to the more appropriate distribution of the stresses and the strains throughout the system and the more strain capability of the beam in flexure. On the other hand, only creating the hollow pores and/or using the lightweight aggregates in the matrix, by itself, not only cannot lead to the mentioned goals but also brings about weakening of the matrix and its fragility. Hence, concomitantly, the matrix should be well supported and strengthened. Here, this essentially ameliorating and strengthening the matrix are performed by giving attention to "the internal consistency of the matrix" and also via "employing the expedient reinforcements in two complementary levels": 1) Using the fibers to the better distribution of the tensile stresses and strains in the matrix, and to increase the matrix endurance and the modulus of resilience in tension and bending; 2) Using the mesh or lattice to better distribution of the tensile stresses and strains in the system, and to increase the system endurance and the modulus of resilience in tension and bending.

♦ In these systems, the presence of the mentioned hollow pores and/or lightweight aggregates disseminated throughout the conjoined matrix (which has been ameliorated through making "an integrated, reticular structure") provides the possibility for occurring of the expedient internal deformities in the matrix during the bending course. By the way, this can lead to the less accumulation of the internal stresses in the certain points of the matrix during bending, the better absorption and control of the stresses, and providing the more strain capability of the beam, especially within the elastic limit.

♦ The occurrence of the remarked internal deformities in the said methodically reinforced matrix during the bending course also means; the occurrence of the deformities in the said hollow pores and/or lightweight aggregates well disseminated throughout the conjoined matrix, in two different forms. Indeed, we have the internal deformities in the fibered lightweight matrix of the system throughout the bending course, in two main different forms, leading to: A) The comparative increase of the thickness (height) of the in-compressing layers (particularly in the upper parts of the beam) and the conversion of some internal compressive stresses to the internal tensile stresses (on the axis perpendicular to the mentioned internal compressive tensions) in the in-compressing layers; B) The comparative decrease of the thickness (height) of the in-tension layers (particularly in the lower parts of the beam) and the conversion of some internal tensile stresses to the internal compressive stresses (on the axis perpendicular to the mentioned internal tensile tensions) in the in-tension layers.

♦ In the under-bending sections of the "Resilient Composite Systems", the deformities occurring in the "conjoined layers perpendicular to the applied load direction" during the bending course are so that; "the initially plane sections perpendicular to the beam axis" typically shift from "the plane status" to "the curve status" during the bending course. Thereby, the basic geometrical assumption of the flexure theory in Solid Mechanics ("linearly" being of the strain changes in the beam height during bending) and the respective trigonometric equations & equalities are mainly overshadowed in these systems.

♦ This way, through occurring of the remarked internal deformities in the strengthened matrix during the flexure course, the stresses are more distributed and absorbed, and the rise rate of the internal stresses in the matrix ... reduces.  ...
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► [sites.google.com/site/newstructure1]

The Sparta fault, southern Greece: Tectonic geomorphology, seismic hazard mapping and conditional probabilities): The Sparta Fault system is a major structure approximately 64km long that bounds the eastern flanks of the Taygetos Mountain front (2.400m) and shapes the present-day Sparta basin. This fault is examined and described in terms of its geometry, segmentation, drainage pattern and postglacial finite throw, emphasizing also how these parameters vary along strike the fault. Based on fault throw-rates and the bedrock geology, geological data can offer both a qualitative and quantitative approach of the expected hazard distribution. This is achieved by the construction of a seismic hazard map based on fault throw-rates that shows the number of times a locality receives enough energy to shake at a certain intensity value, extracting a locality specific long-term earthquake recurrence record. The Sparta fault was activated in 464 B.C., devastating the city of Sparta. Since no oth...