Over the last few months, amongst the chattering classes at any rate, it has become taken for granted that the Conservatives will win the next election. There has been some discussion about the size of the majority and, amongst Tory supporters, a considerable amount of schadenfreude as they list the Labour cabinet ministers who will lose their seats. But no one entertains the prospect that Labour might pull off an astonishing fourth victory.
It is strangely reminiscent of the run up to the general election of 1992. No one considered the possibility of a Conservative win. John Major had been written off. Robert Harris wrote an entertaining piece in the Sunday Times which started, “Right, that’s it. Unless Colonel Gaddafi kidnaps Dame Vera Lynn, Labour will win the election.” Then came John Smith’s fully staged, misjudged, faux budget in which he promised swinging tax rises. John Major meanwhile eschewed technology and spin and went out on his soap-box. It seemed mawkish, but it struck a note. Finally, there was Kinnock’s cringe-making performance on Sheffield Wednesday and John Major scraped home for another five years in office.
Seventeen years later, Dame Vera is safely at home, Colonel Gaddafi dines at top table and the outcome of the next election is, once again, thought to be certain. But a Sheffield Wednesday size disaster is approaching.
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