Sustainability Research Institute, School of Earth & Environment

ABSTRACT Understanding farmers’ perceptions of how rainfall fluctuates and changes is crucial in anticipating the impacts of changing climate patterns, as only when a problem is perceived will appropriate steps be taken to adapt to it. This article seeks to: (1) identify southern African farmers’ perceptions of rainfall, rainfall variations, and changes; (2) examine the nature of meteorological evidence for the perceived rainfall variability and change; (3) document farmers’ responses to rainfall variability; and (4) discuss why discrepancies may occur between farmers’ perceptions and meteorological observations of rainfall. Semi-structured interviews were used to identify farmers’ perceptions of rainfall changes in Botswana and Malawi. Resulting perceptions were examined in conjunction with meteorological data to assess perceived and actual rainfall with regards to: what was changing (onset, duration or cessation), and how it was changing (amount, frequency, intensity or inter-annual variability). Most farmers perceived that the rains used to start earlier and end later. Meteorological data provided no evidence to support farmer perceptions of rainfall starting as early as September (south Malawi) or October (Botswana); however, a high inter-annual variability in the timing of the onset was observed alongside an increasing number of dry days and declining amounts of rainfall at the onset and cessation of precipitation. While some rainfall patterns are associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) fluctuations and larger-scale changes, one explanation for the differences between farmer perceptions and meteorological evidence is that rainfall changes can be easily confused with changes in farming system sensitivity. Our findings suggest that scientists, policymakers, and developers of climate adaptation projects need to be more in tune with farmers' and extension workers’ understandings of how weather is changing in order to improve adaptation policy formulation and implementation.

ABSTRACT There is an on-going debate about climate-induced migration but little empirical evidence. We examine how climate-induced migration has impacted vulnerability and adaptation of a coastal fishing community in Bangladesh. We used household surveys, interviews and focus group discussions to compare fishery dependent households who migrated from Kutubdia Island to mainland with those who stayed behind. Our results suggest that the resettled households are less exposed to floods, sea-level-rise and land erosion than those who stayed behind. They also have more livelihood assets, higher incomes and better access to water supply, health and educational services, technology and markets. In our case study migration has thus been a viable strategy to respond to climate variability and change.

ABSTRACT This article contributes to the limited empirical evidence on the determinants of farmers' participation decision in agricultural land (land use-modifying) payments for ecosystem services (PES) in developing countries. It examines how farmer and farm characteristics, programme factors, and the institutional context of its implementation determine farmers' decisions to participate in the Equitable Payments for Watershed Services (EPWS) programme in Morogoro, Tanzania, to shed light on participation in land use-modifying PES programmes more widely. The EPWS programme in the Kibungo Juu ward of Morogoro promotes the adoption of sustainable land management practices such as agro-forestry, reforestation and terracing to improve quality and quantity of water for downstream users. We used a multi-method approach to make use of both qualitative and quantitative data. We found that farm size, information, participation of farmers in the programme design and the needed degree of change in land management determined the adoption of sustainable land management practices. To foster the participation of small farmers, attention needs to be paid to the availability and access to information, participation of farmers in the design of programmes, local compatibility of practices, and support for initial costs of adoption.

This article contributes to the limited empirical evidence on the determinants of farmers’ participation decision in agricultural land (land use-modifying) payments for ecosystem services (PES) in developing countries. It examines how farmer and farm characteristics, programme factors, and the institutional context of its implementation determine farmers’ decisions to participate in the Equitable Payments for Watershed Services (EPWS) programme in Morogoro, Tanzania, to shed light on participation in land use-modifying PES programmes more widely. The EPWS programme in the Kibungo Juu ward of Morogoro promotes the adoption of sustainable land management practices such as agro-forestry, reforestation and terracing to improve quality and quantity of water for downstream users. We used a multi-method approach to make use of both qualitative and quantitative data. We found that farm size, information, participation of farmers in the programme design and the needed degree of change in land management determined the adoption of sustainable land management practices. To foster the participation of small farmers, attention needs to be paid to the availability and access to information, participation of farmers in the design of programmes, local compatibility of practices, and support for initial costs of adoption.