Three deforestation scenarios
It’s hard to know precisely how deforestation will develop in the future. But we can explore how various scenarios may play out.
A previous blog examined the impact of global commodity prices and the real effective exchange rate on deforestation pressures in Brazil’s Legal Amazon. Utilizing this empirical relationship, the study establishes a deforestation benchmark to quantify the expected deforestation in the absence of policy interventions. This benchmark is essential for assessing the effectiveness of policy actions. A two-part blog series highlighted the importance of a reliable deforestation benchmark for a sustainability-linked bond for the Amazon.
For 2022, the BAU scenario expected 9,619 km2 of deforestation, while PRODES data reported an actual loss of 12,695 km2 – 32% higher than predicted. This discrepancy between forecasted and observed deforestation levels may signal a relaxation of the enforcement of environmental policies in the years before 2022. Research indicates that, indeed environmental governance has weakened under the previous federal government, prompting widespread international and national criticism.The historical reference level (HRL) scenario projects past rates of forest loss into the future, akin to a REDD+ baseline. If deforestation continues at the current HRL rate, we anticipate a 35% increase in deforestation by 2025 compared to the BAU baseline. This suggests that macroeconomic conditions may now be favorable to achieve a further reduction in deforestation rates, complemented by environmental policy efforts.
Where will deforestation occur?
When analyzing deforestation at a more granular level, local factors become significant. For instance, market access for Amazon farmers and the land’s suitability for agriculture significantly influence the appeal for deforestation. The ease with which farmers can expand production or transport goods for sale is also affected by biophysical conditions, such as slope, altitude, and carbon density of the land. Our model incorporates these factors to simulate deforestation at a local scale using a spatial model. For 2022, our model achieved 90% accuracy on a 20km x 20km grid, comparing the simulated and observed deforestation.
Combining the steps – explore it yourself
To share the spatial projections for 2022-2025 under the three different scenarios with the public, we developed an online dashboard that can be accessed under this link: Forest-at-Risk Dashboard. It enables users to delve into the differences between different years and observe how deforestation risk scenarios interact with indigenous territories and conservation areas. By making the complex data on future deforestation pressures accessible and providing a visual representation, it can inform the planning and implementation of conservation strategies.