Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate Ed Gillespie
August 15, 2017
By Sara Reynolds
During the first Virginia gubernatorial debate on July 22, Republican candidate Ed Gillespie and Democratic candidate Ralph Northam disagreed on the condition of the state's economy. Northam referred to Virginia’s 3.7 percent unemployment rate as evidence that the economy is doing well. Gillespie argued that the unemployment rate is not a reliable indicator, claiming, "Too many Virginians are working part time who want to work full time. We hit a 10-year low in labor force participation rate last year...and since the Lieutenant Governor [Northam] was first elected to the General Assembly 10 years ago, we have shed 69,000 manufacturing jobs. We're trading out high-paying jobs for low-paying jobs."[1]
Is Gillespie right about Virginia's economy?[2]
Gillespie is correct that Virginia’s labor force participation rate was at a 10-year low in 2016.[3][4] He is incorrect about the state losing 69,000 manufacturing jobs since 2007.[5] According to research by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, involuntary part-time workers comprised 3.5 percent of the state’s workforce (148,600 people) in the second quarter of 2017 compared to 4.6 percent (187,300) in the second quarter of 2010.[6] Median household income increased 1.3 percent (adjusted to 2015 dollars) between 2010 and 2015.[7][8]
Background
Virginia will hold a gubernatorial election on November 7, 2017. (The primary election was June 13.) Since 1970, Republicans and Democrats have held the office for six terms each.
Republican candidate Ed Gillespie is the former chairman of the Virginia Republican Party and of the Republican National Committee. Gillespie ran for Virginia's U.S. Senate seat in 2014, losing to incumbent Sen. Mark Warner (D) by 0.8 percentage points.
Democratic candidate Ralph Northam is Virginia's lieutenant governor and was first elected to this position in 2013. He served in the Virginia State Senate from 2008 to 2014.
Labor force participation rate
Gillespie was correct that Virginia's labor force participation rate was at a 10-year low last year. It measured 64.6 percent from January to June of 2016.[9] The rate was 65.5 percent in June 2017.[4]
During the recession, Virginia's lowest labor force participation rate was 68.9 percent (June 2009).[4]
The national labor force participation rate hit its lowest point since the recession—62.4 percent—in September 2015, a month prior to Virginia’s lowest. Nationally, the lowest rate during the recession was 65.6 percent (March 2009), which is virtually the same as Virginia’s rate in June 2017.[10]
Manufacturing jobs
Gillespie claimed that Virginia had shed 69,000 manufacturing jobs since Northam was elected to the Virginia State Senate on November 6, 2007—one month before the official start of the recession.[1][11] At that time, Virginia had 272,700 manufacturing jobs. At no point since has the number of manufacturing jobs fallen to 203,700, which would constitute a loss of 69,000 such jobs. The number of manufacturing jobs in the state hit the lowest point since 2007 at 229,000, in 2011.[5]
Part-time employment
According to Gillespie, "Too many Virginians are working part time who want to work full time.”[1]
“Too many” is a subjective term. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, the number of involuntary part-time workers during the 2007-2009 recession increased from 2.4 percent of the state's workforce (96,700) to 3.8 percent of the workforce (159,400).[12][6]
In the second quarter of 2017, involuntary part-time workers comprised 3.5 percent of the state’s workforce (148,600 people) compared to 4.6 percent of Virginia’s workforce (187,300) in the second quarter of 2010.[6]
Low-paying vs. high-paying jobs
Gillespie also claimed that Virginia is “trading out high-paying jobs for low-paying jobs.”[1]
According to data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Virginia's median household income (adjusted to 2015 dollars) increased 1.3 percent between 2010 and 2015, from $65,440 to $66,262.[8][7][13]
During the 2007-2009 recession, Virginia's median household income fell 4.5 percent, from $68,770 to $65,670 (in 2015 dollars).[8][13]
The increase in Virginia’s median household income between 2010 and 2015 was 2 percentage points less than the national trend. In the same period, the national median household income rose 3.3 percent, from $53,977 to $55,775 (adjusted to 2015 dollars).[14][13]
During the recession, the national median household income fell 5.1 percent, from $58,584 to $55,588 (in 2015 dollars).[14][13]
Conclusion
During the first Virginia gubernatorial debate, GOP candidate Ed Gillespie and Democratic candidate Ralph Northam disagreed on the strength of the state's economy. Gillespie claimed, "Too many Virginians are working part time who want to work full time. We hit a 10-year low in labor force participation rate last year...and since the Lieutenant Governor [Northam] was first elected to the General Assembly 10 years ago, we have shed 69,000 manufacturing jobs. We're trading out high-paying jobs for low-paying jobs."[1]
Gillespie is correct that Virginia’s labor force participation rate was at a 10-year low in 2016.[4] He is incorrect that the state lost 69,000 manufacturing jobs since Northam's election in 2007.[5] According to research by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, involuntary part-time workers comprised 3.5 percent of the state’s workforce (148,600 people) in the second quarter of 2017 compared to 4.6 percent (187,300) in the second quarter of 2010.[6] Virginia’s median household income increased 1.3 percent between 2010 and 2015 (the most recent available data).[8]
See also
Sources and Notes
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 YouTube, "Virginia Gubernatorial Debate 2017," July 22, 2017 35:00
- ↑ The National Bureau of Economic Research dates the 2008 financial crisis from December 2007 to June 2009. To account for the effects of the recession, Ballotpedia examined data for 2007 to 2009 separately from data for 2010 to the present. The National Bureau of Economic Research, "US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions," accessed August 9, 2017
- ↑ The term labor force participation rate refers to the number of people who are employed or actively seeking employment.
- ↑ 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Statewide Data: Employment status of the civilian noninstitutional population, seasonally adjusted," accessed August 4, 2017
- ↑ 5.0 5.1 5.2 United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, "State and Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings: Virginia, Statewide, Manufacturing," accessed August 4, 2017
- ↑ 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.3 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, "Labor Underutilization by State: Virginia," accessed August 7, 2017
- ↑ 7.0 7.1 The most recent available data on median household income is from 2015.
- ↑ 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.3 United States Census Bureau American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, "Income in the past 12 months," accessed August 7, 2017
- ↑ The labor force participation rate measured 64.6 percent from October 2015 to June 2016 except for December 2015, when it measured 64.7 percent.
- ↑ United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey (seasonally adjusted)," accessed August 4, 2017
- ↑ Virginia State Board of Elections, "November 6, 2007 General Election Official Results," accessed August 4, 2017
- ↑ The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis defines involuntary part-time workers as "persons … working less than 35 hours per week who want to work full time, are available to do so, and gave an economic reason (their hours had been cut back or they were unable to find a full time job) for working part time.” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, "Employed Involuntary Part-Time for Virginia," accessed August 11, 2017
- ↑ 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.3 Numbers have been adjusted for inflation using the Bureau of Labor Statistics' CPI Inflation Calculator. United States Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, "CPI Inflation Calculator," accessed August 7, 2017
- ↑ 14.0 14.1 United States Census Bureau American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, "Income in the past 12 months," accessed August 7, 2017
