Montana's 1st Congressional District election, 2024

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Montana's 1st Congressional District
	Democratic primary; Republican primary; General election
Election details
	Filing deadline: March 11, 2024
	Primary: June 4, 2024; General: November 5, 2024
How to vote
	Poll times: 7 a.m. to 8 p.m.; Voting in Montana
Race ratings
	Cook Political Report: Likely Republican; Inside Elections: Lean Republican; Sabato's Crystal Ball: Lean Republican
Ballotpedia analysis
	U.S. Senate battlegrounds; U.S. House battlegrounds; Federal and state primary competitiveness; Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2024
See also
	Montana's 1st Congressional District; U.S. Senate • 1st • 2nd; Montana elections, 2024; U.S. Congress elections, 2024; U.S. Senate elections, 2024; U.S. House elections, 2024; Alabama U.S. House racesAlaska U.S. House racesArizona U.S. House racesArkansas U.S. House racesCalifornia U.S. House racesColorado U.S. House racesConnecticut U.S. House racesDelaware U.S. House racesFlorida U.S. House racesGeorgia U.S. House racesHawaii U.S. House racesIdaho U.S. House racesIllinois U.S. House racesIndiana U.S. House racesIowa U.S. House racesKansas U.S. House racesKentucky U.S. House racesLouisiana U.S. House racesMaine U.S. House racesMaryland U.S. House racesMassachusetts U.S. House racesMichigan U.S. House racesMinnesota U.S. House racesMississippi U.S. House racesMissouri U.S. House racesMontana U.S. House racesNebraska U.S. House racesNevada U.S. House racesNew Hampshire U.S. House racesNew Jersey U.S. House racesNew Mexico U.S. House racesNew York U.S. House racesNorth Carolina U.S. House racesNorth Dakota U.S. House racesOhio U.S. House racesOklahoma U.S. House racesOregon U.S. House racesPennsylvania U.S. House racesRhode Island U.S. House racesSouth Carolina U.S. House racesSouth Dakota U.S. House racesTennessee U.S. House racesTexas U.S. House racesUtah U.S. House racesVermont U.S. House racesVirginia U.S. House racesWashington U.S. House racesWest Virginia U.S. House racesWisconsin U.S. House racesWyoming U.S. House racesSubmit

Montana 2024 elections

U.S. Senate • U.S. House • Governor • Lt. Gov • Attorney General • Secretary of State • State executive offices • State Senate • State House • Supreme court • How to run for office

All U.S. House districts, including the 1st Congressional District of Montana, are holding elections in 2024. The general election is November 5, 2024. The primary was June 4, 2024. The filing deadline was March 11, 2024. All 435 seats U.S. House are up for election in 2024. Republicans have a 219 to 213 majority with three vacancies.^[1] As of June 2024, 45 members of the U.S. House had announced they were not running for re-election. To read more about the U.S. House elections taking place this year, click here.

Daily Kos calculated what the results of the 2020 presidential election in this district would have been following redistricting. Donald Trump (R) beat Joe Biden (D) 52.2%-45.3%.^[2]

Montana's 1st Congressional District is one of 34 congressional districts with a Republican incumbent or an open seat the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is targeting in 2024. To read about DCCC targeting initiatives, click here. For a complete list of DCCC targeted districts, click here.

For more information about the primaries in this election, click on the links below:

Candidates and election results

General election

General election for U.S. House Montana District 1

Incumbent Ryan K. Zinke, Monica Tranel, and Dennis Hayes are running in the general election for U.S. House Montana District 1 on November 5, 2024.

		Candidate
		Ryan K. Zinke (R)
		Monica Tranel (D)
		Dennis Hayes (L)

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined.
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
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Democratic primary election

Democratic primary for U.S. House Montana District 1

Monica Tranel advanced from the Democratic primary for U.S. House Montana District 1 on June 4, 2024.

		Candidate	%	Votes
✔		Monica Tranel	100.0	25,899

	There were no incumbents in this race. Source	Total votes: 25,899
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Republican primary election

Republican primary for U.S. House Montana District 1

Incumbent Ryan K. Zinke defeated Mary Todd in the Republican primary for U.S. House Montana District 1 on June 4, 2024.

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Ryan K. Zinke	74.7	21,102
	Mary Todd	25.3	7,141

	Incumbents are bolded and underlined. Source	Total votes: 28,243
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
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Withdrawn or disqualified candidates

Cory Moran (R)

Libertarian primary election

Libertarian primary for U.S. House Montana District 1

Dennis Hayes defeated Ernie Noble (Unofficially withdrew) in the Libertarian primary for U.S. House Montana District 1 on June 4, 2024.

	Candidate	%	Votes
✔	Dennis Hayes	65.4	390
	Ernie Noble (Unofficially withdrew)	34.6	206

	There were no incumbents in this race. Source	Total votes: 596
= candidate completed the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection survey.
If you are a candidate and would like to tell readers and voters more about why they should vote for you, complete the Ballotpedia Candidate Connection Survey.
Do you want a spreadsheet of this type of data? Contact our sales team.

Candidate profiles

There are currently no candidate profiles created for this race. Candidate profiles will appear here as they are created. Encourage the candidates in this race to complete Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey so that their profile will appear here. You can ask candidates in this race to fill out the survey by clicking their names below:

Voting information

See also: Voting in Montana

Election information in Montana: Nov. 5, 2024, election.

What is the voter registration deadline?

In-person: Nov. 5, 2024
By mail: Postmarked by Oct. 7, 2024
Online: N/A

Is absentee/mail-in voting available to all voters?

N/A

What is the absentee/mail-in ballot request deadline?

In-person: Nov. 4, 2024
By mail: N/A by N/A
Online: N/A

What is the absentee/mail-in ballot return deadline?

In-person: Nov. 5, 2024
By mail: Received by Nov. 5, 2024

Is early voting available to all voters?

N/A

What are the early voting start and end dates?

Oct. 7, 2024 to Nov. 4, 2024

Are all voters required to present ID at the polls? If so, is a photo or non-photo ID required?

N/A

When are polls open on Election Day?

7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m.

Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey responses

Ballotpedia asks all federal, state, and local candidates to complete a survey and share what motivates them on political and personal levels. Candidates are asked three required questions for this survey, but they may answer additional optional questions as well.

No candidate in this race has completed Ballotpedia's Candidate Connection survey. Ballotpedia is seeking 100 percent participation so voters can learn more about all the candidates on their ballots.

You can ask candidates in this race to fill out the survey by clicking their names below:

Campaign finance

Name	Party	Receipts*	Disbursements**	Cash on hand	Date
Ryan K. Zinke	Republican Party	$5,752,008	$3,341,562	$2,520,494	As of May 15, 2024
Monica Tranel	Democratic Party	$1,944,572	$588,500	$1,356,072	As of March 31, 2024
Dennis Hayes	Libertarian Party	$0	$0	$0	Data not available***
Source: Federal Elections Commission, "Campaign finance data," 2024. This product uses the openFEC API but is not endorsed or certified by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). * According to the FEC, "Receipts are anything of value (money, goods, services or property) received by a political committee." According to the FEC, a disbursement "is a purchase, payment, distribution, loan, advance, deposit or gift of money or anything of value to influence a federal election," plus other kinds of payments not made to influence a federal election. * Candidate either did not report any receipts or disbursements to the FEC, or Ballotpedia did not find an FEC candidate ID.

General election race ratings

See also: Race rating definitions and methods

Ballotpedia provides race ratings from four outlets: The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and DDHQ/The Hill. Each race rating indicates if one party is perceived to have an advantage in the race and, if so, the degree of advantage:

Safe and Solid ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge and the race is not competitive.
Likely ratings indicate that one party has a clear edge, but an upset is possible.
Lean ratings indicate that one party has a small edge, but the race is competitive.^[3]
Toss-up ratings indicate that neither party has an advantage.

Race ratings are informed by a number of factors, including polling, candidate quality, and election result history in the race's district or state.^[4]^[5]^[6]

Race ratings: Montana's 1st Congressional District election, 2024
Race tracker	Race ratings
	July 2, 2024	June 25, 2024	June 18, 2024	June 11, 2024
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter	Likely Republican	Likely Republican	Likely Republican	Likely Republican
Decision Desk HQ and The Hill	Likely Republican	Pending	Pending	Pending
Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Lean Republican
Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Lean Republican	Lean Republican
Note: Ballotpedia reviews external race ratings every week throughout the election season and posts weekly updates even if the media outlets have not revised their ratings during that week.

Ballot access

The table below details filing requirements for U.S. House candidates in Montana in the 2024 election cycle. For additional information on candidate ballot access requirements in Montana, click here.

Filing requirements for U.S. House candidates, 2024
State	Office	Party	Signatures required	Filing fee	Filing deadline	Source
Montana	U.S. House	Ballot-qualified party	N/A	$1,740.00	3/11/2024	Source
Montana	U.S. House	Unaffiliated	6,128^[7]	$1,740.00	6/3/2024	Source

District analysis

Click the tabs below to view information about voter composition, past elections, and demographics in both the district and the state.

District map - A map of the district in place for the election.
Competitiveness - Information about the competitiveness of 2024 U.S. House elections in the state.
Presidential elections - Information about presidential elections in the district and the state.
State party control - The partisan makeup of the state's congressional delegation and state government.

District map

Competitiveness
Presidential elections

State party control

Below is the district map in place for this election. Click the map below to enlarge it.

See also: Primary election competitiveness in state and federal government, 2024

This section contains data on U.S. House primary election competitiveness in Montana.

Montana U.S. House competitiveness, 2014-2024
Year	Districts/ offices	Seats	Open seats	Candidates	Possible primaries	Contested Democratic primaries	Contested Republican primaries	% of contested primaries	Incumbents in contested primaries	% of incumbents in contested primaries
2024	2	2	1	16	4	1	2	75.0%	1	100.0%
2022	2	2	1	15	4	2	2	100.0%	1	100.0%
2020	1	1	1	8	2	1	1	100.0%	0	N/A
2018	1	1	0	7	2	1	0	50.0%	0	0.0%
2016	1	1	0	2	2	0	0	0.0%	0	0.0%
2014	1	1	1	7	2	1	1	100.0%	0	N/A

Post-filing deadline analysis

The following analysis covers all U.S. House districts up for election in Montana in 2024. Information below was calculated on March 31, 2024, and may differ from information shown in the table above due to candidate replacements and withdrawals after that time.

Sixteen candidates, including five Democrats and 11 Republicans, ran for Montana’s two U.S. House districts in 2024. That’s eight candidates per district, higher than the 7.5 candidates who ran in 2022 but the same as the eight candidates who ran in 2020.

The total number of candidates who ran for the U.S. House in 2024 was also higher than any other year this decade. Fifteen candidates ran in 2022, eight in 2020, seven in 2018, two in 2016, and seven in 2014.

One seat was open in 2024, meaning an incumbent did not run for re-election. Rep. Matt Rosendale (R-2nd) did not run for re-election because he is retired from public office.

Thirteen candidates—four Democrats and nine Republicans—ran for the open 2nd Congressional District, the most candidates who ran for a seat in 2024.

Three primaries—one Democratic and two Republican—were contested in 2024. Four primaries were contested in 2022, two primaries were contested in 2020, and one was in 2018.

Rep. Ryan Zinke (R-1st) was the only incumbent who faced a primary challenger in 2024.

Candidates filed to run in the Republican and Democratic primaries in both districts, meaning no seats were guaranteed to either party.

2020 presidential election results

The table below shows what the vote in the 2020 presidential election would have been in this district. The presidential election data was compiled by Daily Kos.

2020 presidential results in Montana's 1st based on 2024 district lines
Joe Biden	Donald Trump
45.3%	52.2%

Inside Elections Baselines

See also: Inside Elections

Inside Elections' Baseline is a figure that analyzes all federal and statewide election results from the district over the past four election cycles. The results are combined in an index estimating the strength of a typical Democratic or Republican candidate in the congressional district.^[8] The table below displays the Baseline data for this district.

Inside Elections Baseline for 2024
Democratic Baseline	Republican Baseline	Difference
46.4	50.9	R+4.6

Presidential voting history

See also: Presidential election in Montana, 2020

Montana presidential election results (1900-2020)

10 Democratic wins
21 Republican wins

Year	1900	1904	1908	1912	1916	1920	1924	1928	1932	1936	1940	1944	1948	1952	1956	1960	1964	1968	1972	1976	1980	1984	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016	2020
Winning Party	D	R	R	D	D	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R

See also: Party control of Montana state government

Congressional delegation

The table below displays the partisan composition of Montana's congressional delegation as of May 2024.

Congressional Partisan Breakdown from Montana
Party	U.S. Senate	U.S. House	Total
Democratic	1	0	1
Republican	1	2	3
Independent	0	0	0
Vacancies	0	0	0
Total	2	2	4

State executive

The table below displays the officeholders in Montana's top four state executive offices as of May 2024.

State executive officials in Montana, May 2024
Office	Officeholder
Governor	Greg Gianforte
Lieutenant Governor	Kristen Juras
Secretary of State	Christi Jacobsen
Attorney General	Austin Knudsen

State legislature

Montana State Senate

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	16
	Republican Party	34
	Other	0
	Vacancies	0
Total		50

Montana House of Representatives

Party		As of February 2024
	Democratic Party	32
	Republican Party	68
	Other	0
	Vacancies	0
Total		100

Trifecta control

The table below shows the state's trifecta status from 1992 until 2024.

Montana Party Control: 1992-2024
No Democratic trifectas • Fourteen years of Republican trifectas
Scroll left and right on the table below to view more years.

Year	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24
Governor	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R
Senate	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	D	D	D	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R
House	D	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	S	S	R	R	S	S	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R	R

District history