Annual Congressional Competitiveness Report, 2020
Published on Sept. 19, 2020
Ballotpedia’s 2020 study of competitiveness in congressional elections found that 11.8% of incumbent U.S. Representatives and Senators would not be on the 2020 general election ballot. This was lower than 2018's 12.9%, but higher than 2016 (7.0%), 2014 (10.3%), and 2012 (11.3%).
Our study also found that 95.4% of the races for U.S. House (415 of 435) were contested by members of both major parties, an increase from the four preceding election cycles and the highest level of contested races since at least 1920. In 2018, 91.3% of races (397 of 435) featured major party competition.[2]
Key sections of analysis on this page include:
- Incumbents not advancing to the general election in 2020
- Primary election competitiveness
- Races without major party competition
- Influence of presidential elections on incumbent departures
- Influence of pivot counties on incumbent departures
Defining competitiveness
An election is considered more competitive when there is no incumbent running for re-election. This analysis examines both the degree of competitiveness, relative to past election years, and factors that may have contributed to the degree of competitiveness in the current year.
The incumbent advantage is cited in political theory where its importance is debated frequently. For example, data compiled by OpenSecrets.org shows the re-election rate for incumbents in the U.S. House of Representatives has been 85% or higher for each of the 27 two-year election cycles between 1964 and 2018. From 2008 to 2018, the re-election rate averaged 92.1%.
Races without major party competition
When a candidate from only one of either the Democratic or Republican parties runs for a congressional office, the party is all but guaranteed to win the seat. In 2020, 20 of 435 U.S. House races (4.6%) lacked major party competition, the lowest rate since at least 1920. Inversely, this indicates that major parties contested more U.S. House races in 2020 than in any other election cycle within the preceding century with 95.4% of House races (415 of 435) featuring both a Democrat and a Republican. The most recent U.S. Senator to run without major party competition was Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) who ran unopposed in the 2014 general election.
- 12 U.S. House races did not have a Republican candidate, guaranteeing them to Democrats.
- Eight U.S. House races did not have a Democratic candidate, guaranteeing them to Republicans.
- States with multiple U.S. House races lacking major party competition in 2020 were: Alabama (3 of 7 seats), Massachusetts (4 of 9), and New York (2 of 27).
- 11 states had one U.S. House race featuring just one major party candidate: Arkansas, California, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Mississippi, North Carolina, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Virginia.[4]
Comparison with one-party races in previous years
- See also: U.S. House elections without a Democratic or Republican candidate, 1920-2020
The chart below shows a historical comparison of U.S. House races lacking major party competition from 2012 to 2018. Blue bars indicate the number of races featuring only Democrats with no Republican competition and the red bars indicate races with only Republicans. Gray bars show the number of races with major party competition, meaning both Democrats and Republicans.
Ballotpedia's analysis found that 95.4% of the races for U.S. House (415 of 435) were contested by members of both major parties, an increase from the preceding four election cycles and the highest level of races with major party competition since at least 1920.
For Democrats, 2.8% of seats (12 of 435) had no Republican competition. In total, Democrats ran in 98.2% of House races (427 of 435), a decrease from 99.5% (433 of 435) in 2018.
For Republicans, 1.8% of House races (8 of 435) had no Democratic competition. Republicans ran in 97.2% of House races (423 of 435), an increase from 91.7% (399 of 435) in 2018 and the highest rate of Republican competition since at least 2012.
Click [Show] on the table below to view the number and percentage of House races lacking major party competition from 2012 to 2020:
| U.S. House races with one major party candidate, 2012-2020[2] | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | House races without a Democrat (%) | House races without a Republican (%) | Total House races with one major party candidate | ||||
| 2020 | 8 (1.8%) | 12 (2.8%) | 20 (4.6%) | ||||
| 2018 | 2 (0.5%) | 36 (8.3%) | 38 (8.7%) | ||||
| 2016 | 26 (6.0%) | 27 (6.2%) | 53 (12.2%) | ||||
| 2014 | 34 (7.8%) | 39 (9.0%) | 73 (16.8%) | ||||
| 2012 | 23 (5.3%) | 18 (4.1%) | 41 (9.4%) | ||||
Incumbents not advancing to the general election
This section breaks down those incumbents who did not advance to the general election into three categories: open seats, incumbents defeated before the general election, and additional retirements. Open seats include any seat that was open at the time of the primary, meaning the incumbent either did not file for re-election or filed but withdrew before the primary. Those incumbents who were defeated in primaries or conventions are listed next. Additional departures includes incumbents who participated in primaries, but did not advance to the general election for other reasons.
Open seats
Heading into the 2020 elections, there were 468 incumbents in the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives eligible to run for re-election, 246 Democrats, 218 Republicans, and one Libertarian. Forty-five incumbents (9.6%) did not seek re-election in 2020. This includes four of 33 U.S. Senators (12.1%) and 41 of 435 U.S. Representatives (9.4%). By party, Democrats held 11 open seats, meaning 4.5% of the 246 Democratic incumbents did not seek re-election in 2020. Republicans held 33, meaning 15.1% of Republican incumbents did not seek re-election.
The reasons for the 45 open seats were as follows:
- Ran for other offices in 2020: ten open seats
- Five U.S. Representatives ran for U.S. Senate: Bradley Byrne (R-Ala.), Doug Collins (R-Ga.), Joseph Kennedy (D-Mass.), Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), and Roger Marshall (R-Kan.).
- U.S. Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-Mont.) ran for governor.
- Two U.S. Representatives ran for lieutenant governor: Rob Bishop (R-Utah) and Denny Heck (D-Wash.).
- U.S. Rep. Paul Cook (R-Calif.) ran for the District 1 position on the San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors.
- U.S. Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-Hawaii) announced she would not seek re-election in 2020 to run for U.S. president.[5]
- Retirements and resignations: 35 open seats
- Democrats: Seven Democratic incumbents (six in the U.S. House and one in the U.S. Senate) announced they would not seek re-election. Of those seven, one—Katie Hill (D-Calif.)—resigned before the end of her term.[6]
- Republicans: Twenty-seven Republican incumbents (24 in the U.S. House and three in the U.S. Senate) announced they would not seek re-election. Of those 33, three—Chris Collins (R-N.Y.), Duncan Hunter (R-Calif.), and Mark Meadows (R-N.C.)—resigned before the end of their respective terms.[7]
- One Libertarian incumbent, U.S. Rep. Justin Amash (L-Mich.) announced he would not seek re-election.
Defeated before the general election
Eight incumbents were defeated in primaries or conventions before the general election, three Democrats and five Republicans, all of whom were House members. The most recent U.S. Senator to be defeated in a primary was Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), who lost to Richard Mourdock in 2012.
The defeated incumbents were:
| Incumbents defeated in primaries | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| District | Incumbent | Primary election/convention winner | ||||
| Illinois' 3rd | ||||||
| Iowa's 4th | ||||||
| Virginia's 5th | ||||||
| New York's 16th | ||||||
| Colorado's 3rd | ||||||
| Kansas' 2nd | ||||||
| Missouri's 1st | ||||||
| Florida's 15th | ||||||
Additional departures
- Rep. John Lewis (D-Ga.) died on July 17, 2020. A special election was held on Sept. 29, 2020, for the remainder of Lewis' term. State Sen. Nikema Williams (D-Ga.) was chosen to replace Lewis on the general election ballot.
- Rep. John Ratcliffe (R-Texas) resigned on May 22, 2020, after being appointed Director of National Intelligence. No special elections were scheduled. State Sen. Pat Fallon (R-Texas) was chosen to replace Ratcliffe on the general election ballot.
Comparison to previous years
The chart below displays the number of incumbents who did not advance to the general election from 2012 to 2020. Bright blue and red indicate members of the U.S. House. Dark blue and red indicate members of the U.S. Senate. Gray is used for third party or independent members of either chamber.
Click [Show] to view data from the above chart:
| Outgoing members of Congress before the general election, 2012-2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Chamber | Democrats not seeking re-election | Republicans not seeking re-election | Total not seeking re-election | |||
| 2020 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 1 | 3 | 4 (12.1% of total) | ||||
| U.S. House | 14 | 36 | 51[8] (11.7% of total) | ||||
| Total | 15 | 39 | 55 (11.8% of total) | ||||
| 2018 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 0 | 3 | 3 (9.1% of total) | ||||
| U.S. House | 19 | 36 | 55 (13.2% of total) | ||||
| Total | 19 | 39 | 58 (12.9% of total) | ||||
| 2016 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 3 | 2 | 5 (14.7% of total) | ||||
| U.S. House | 8 | 20 | 28 (6.4% of total) | ||||
| Total | 11 | 22 | 33 (7.0% of total) | ||||
| 2014 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 5 | 2 | 7 (21.2% of total) | ||||
| U.S. House | 16 | 25 | 41 (9.4% of total) | ||||
| Total | 21 | 27 | 48 (10.3% of total) | ||||
| 2012 | |||||||
| U.S. Senate | 6 | 3 | 10[9] (30.3% of total) | ||||
| U.S. House | 23 | 20 | 43 (9.9% of total) | ||||
| Total | 29 | 23 | 53 (11.3% of total) | ||||
Primary election competitiveness
The following charts and maps show information on primary competitiveness including the total number of primaries and the number of incumbents challenged in primaries. In this section, the open seats metric only includes those incumbents who did not seek re-election, excluding incumbents defeated in primaries or those who departed for other reasons following the primary.
U.S. House
In the U.S. House, there were 55 fewer primary candidates in 2020 compared to 2018, but more than there were in 2016 and 2014. This corresponded with a similar pattern in total primaries: a lower number than 2018, but higher than the preceding two elections. 2020 had the lowest number of open seats, meaning more incumbents seeking re-election, compared to the previous three elections. More incumbents had primaries in 2020 than in each of the previous three elections.
Incumbents in contested primaries
394 incumbents sought re-election in 2020, 390 of whom could have had contested primaries.[10] Of that total, 210 (53.8%) had a contested primary and 180 (46.2%) advanced to the general election without a primary challenge.
The map below shows the districts where incumbents had contested primaries coded by color. Democratic incumbents are noted as blue, Republicans in red. In gray districts, incumbents did not have contested primaries because they either were not challenged, did not seek re-election, or participated in conventions.
U.S. Senate
In the U.S. Senate, there were 36 fewer primary candidates in 2020 compared to 2018. The 214 major party primary candidates were the fewest running since 2014. The number of total primaries was equal to 2018, both of which had more primaries than 2016 and 2014. The number of incumbents in contested primaries equaled 2018 and 2014, all of which were lower than 2016.
Incumbents in contested primaries
29 incumbents sought re-election in 2020, all of whom could have had contested primaries. Of that total, 15 (51.7%) had a contested primary. 14 (48.7%) advanced to the general election without a primary challenge.
The map below shows the states where incumbents had contested primaries coded by color. Democratic incumbents are noted as blue, Republicans in red. In gray states, incumbents did not face a contested primary because they were either not challenged or did not seek re-election. Only states that held regularly-scheduled Senate elections in 2020 are shown.
Influence of presidential elections on incumbent departures
Competitiveness in U.S. House and U.S. Senate races can be affected by a recent U.S. presidential contest that alters the previously-assumed balance of power between the two major parties in a state. A federal lawmaker elected as a Republican during a non-presidential year may soon find voters cast their ballots for the presidential candidate of the opposite party or vice versa. This may influence an incumbent's decision to seek re-election.
Four of the 45 open seats for the U.S. House and U.S. Senate in 2020 (8.9%) had an incumbent from a district that was won by the presidential candidate of the other party in 2016.
All four seats were open because the incumbent chose to retire or otherwise not seek re-election.
- Donald Trump (R) won Iowa's 2nd Congressional District 49-45% over Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016. The retiring incumbent was Rep. Dave Loebsack (D-Iowa) by 4.1 percentage points.
- Clinton won Texas' 23rd Congressional District 50-46% over Trump in 2016. The retiring incumbent was Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas).
- North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District, represented by outgoing Rep. George Holding (R-N.C.), was redrawn in 2019 following a court order. Clinton did not win the 2nd District in 2016 under the previous district lines. Had the redrawn lines been in place at that time, she would have won 60-36% over Trump.
- North Carolina's 6th Congressional District, represented by outgoing Rep. Mark Walker (R-N.C.), was redrawn in 2019 following a court order. Clinton did not win the 6th District in 2016 under the previous district lines. Had the redrawn lines been in place at that time, she would have won 59-38% over Trump.
By comparison, nine of the 58 open seats for the U.S. House and U.S. Senate in 2018 (15.5%) featured such an incumbent. In seven of those nine races, the districts changed partisan control to match with the 2016 results: Clinton won five districts where a Democrat took over for a retiring Republican incumbent. Trump won two districts where Republicans replaced retiring Democratic incumbents. Trump won two districts in which Democratic newcomers replaced retiring Democratic incumbents.
Influence of pivot counties on incumbent departures
The number of open seats in congressional races may also increase due to the existence of a pivot county within the district.
Ballotpedia identified 206 counties that voted for Donald Trump (R) in 2016 after voting for Barack Obama (D) in 2008 and 2012. David Leip of Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections provided the raw data for this study. Collectively, Trump won these pivot counties by more than 580,000 votes, and had an average margin of victory of 11.5%.
Of the 53 incumbents who either did not run for re-election or were defeated in a partisan primary or convention before reaching the general election, 13 (24.5%) represented districts that overlapped with at least one pivot county after 2016. The departure or defeat of Republican incumbents accounted for seven of these 13 open seats, Democrats accounted for five, and a Libertarian for one.
| Outgoing incumbents from districts/states overlapping with pivot counties, 2020 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Name | District/State | # of pivot counties | Reason for departure | ||||
| U.S. House | |||||||
| CO-03 | 3 | Primary defeat | |||||
| IN-01 | 2 | Retired | |||||
| IA-02 | 10 | Retired | |||||
| IA-04 | 6 | Primary defeat | |||||
| MI-03 | 1 | Retired | |||||
| MI-10 | 1 | Retired | |||||
| MT-AL | 3 | Filed for Gov. | |||||
| NM-03 | 1 | Filed for U.S. Senate | |||||
| NY-02 | 1 | Retired | |||||
| NY-27 | 1 | Resigned | |||||
| WA-10 | 1 | Filed for Lt. Gov. | |||||
| U.S. Senate | |||||||
| New Mexico | 3 | Retired | |||||
| Tennessee | 1 | Retired | |||||
U.S. House races excluded from analysis
In some of the analyses above certain U.S. House races are omitted from totals for the following reasons:
- Influence of presidential elections on incumbent departures: the only departures included in this total are those that took place before the primary, totaling 45 of the 55 departures. The eight races where an incumbent was defeated were excluded because the incumbents did not depart by choice. The two additional departures were not included because the incumbent filed for re-election and appeared in the primary, indicating the incumbent wanted to run again rather than retire.
- Influence of pivot counties on incumbent departures: the only departures included in this total are those where the incumbent:
- Did not seek re-election
- Filed but withdrew before the primary
- Ran in the primary and was defeated
- This totals 53 of the 55 departures. The two additional departures were not included because one of the two occurred because of an incumbent's death and the other occurred after the primary, indicating no pivot county influence.
The report also does not include special elections that took place in 2020.
See also
- United States Congress elections, 2020
- Annual State Executive Competitiveness Report, 2020
- Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 10, 2020
- Ballotpedia's Election Analysis Hub, 2020
Footnotes
- ↑ The numbers reflected here are subject to change by the time of the general election. Additionally, Ballotpedia is currently conducting a decade-wide audit of all state legislative elections in order to standardized data from previous years.
- ↑ 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.3 In this analysis, a race without major party competition is defined as a race for an office where at no point in the election cycle a Republican appears on the ballot with a Democrat or vice versa. In most instances, this would be the general election ballot. In the case of top-two primary states, that primary would also be taken into consideration even if two candidates from the same party eventually advance to the general election. This definition differs from elsewhere on Ballotpedia and therefore numbers for this metric on other pages might not equal what is included here. Ballotpedia is in the process of updating competitiveness data from 2010 to 2020 and bringing this section in line with the definition used elsewhere will be part of that process.
- ↑ This considers major party competition at the time of the primary in states with top-two primaries (CA, LA, and WA) and at the time of the general election for all other states.
- ↑ When calculating major party competition in states with top-two primary systems, Ballotpedia conducts the analysis at the time of the primary when all candidates appear on the ballot rather than the general election. California uses a top-two primary system where all candidates regardless of party affiliation participate in a single primary. This means two candidates from the same party can win the primary and advance to the general election. In 2020, one primary lacked major party competition, which is reflected here.
- ↑ Note: Seeking the presidency in 2020 did not legally require her to renounce running for Congress the same year.
- ↑ California: Hill resigned on Nov. 1, 2019. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) was elected to serve the remainder of Hill's term in a special election on May 12, 2020. Garcia ran in the regularly-scheduled election for a full term. However, since the primary for the regularly-scheduled election took place on March 3, 2020, Garcia was not an incumbent at that time, meaning the seat was cataloged as open in this analysis.
- ↑ New York: Collins resigned on Oct. 1, 2019. Christopher Jacobs (R-N.Y.) was elected to serve the remainder of Collins' term in a special election on June 23, 2020. Jacobs ran in the regularly-scheduled election for a full term. However, since the primary for the regularly scheduled election took place on June 23, 2020, Jacobs was not an incumbent at that time, meaning the seat was cataloged as open in this analysis.
California: Hunter resigned on Jan. 13, 2020. No special elections were held for the remainder of his term, meaning the seat remained vacant until the Nov. 3 election.
North Carolina: Meadows resigned on March 30, 2020, after being appointed White House Chief of Staff. Prior to his appointment and resignation, Meadows had announced he would not seek re-election in 2020. - ↑ Figure includes Rep. Justin Amash (L-Mich.).
- ↑ Figure includes Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.).
- ↑ The remaining four incumbents ran in districts that utilized conventions rather than primaries and are not included in these calculations. Those incumbents were Ben McAdams (D-Utah), Chris Stewart (R-Utah), John Curtis (R-Utah), and Denver Riggleman (R-Va.)
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