I don't know if I would characterize my reaction as surprised.  Many did not rule out the chances of a big Atlantic hurricane season.  Still, it was more active than many anticipated before the season.  Perhaps the biggest factor that wasn't accounted for in early forecasts was that we did not see the development of El Nino.  You may recall that ENSO forecasts last winter and spring indicated elevated probabilities of El Nino development, which would have reduced Atlantic hurricane activity, but of course El Nino did not develop.  You can read more about this in this excellent blog post by Dr. Phil Klotzbach: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/how-have-changing-enso…