‘What’s the use of Oppn alliance?’ to marking presence at Patna meet: The dilemma of being NC

“There were these four parties which supported us… Name a fifth… Those who are making noises of ‘Save the Constitution’ and ‘Save Democracy’, where were they when there was democratic murder (in J&K)? They didn’t speak a word, they even supported it,” Omar said, speaking to reporters in Jammu.

At the same time, Omar didn’t rule out participation in an Opposition alliance.

In more proof of this balancing act by the NC, taking into account the distinct facets of the J&K situation, Omar’s father and NC supremo Farooq Abdullah has said that he would be attending the grand Opposition meeting in Patna on June 23, the first such to plan for the 2024 general elections.

The NC realises that the case of Kashmir-based parties like itself and the PDP is not as simplistic as for Opposition parties in other parts of the country. For any government to hold legitimacy in J&K, it would need representation from Jammu too, and that would mean a dalliance with the BJP – the only potent force in the Jammu region, after the Congress’s decline.

The PDP is seen to have burnt its bridges with the BJP after their experimental alliance ended in much bad blood. It was precisely to ensure a Jammu footprint in the ministry that the PDP had tied up with the BJP to form a government in 2015, after the Assembly polls threw up mixed results.

Given the contradictions between the two parties – the PDP was considered “soft separatist” – the alliance had been strained from the start. It finally could not withstand the death of PDP supremo Mufti Mohd Sayeed who had forged through the tie-up with the BJP, the long hold-up by Mehbooba Mufti before deciding to continue with the alliance, and finally the 2016 violent protests, after which Mehbooba had pulled out.

The PDP’s falling fortunes since are believed to have been a fallout of its vote base turning away, due to this “betrayal”.

As far as the BJP goes, that leaves essentially just the NC as a potential partner. With the two seen as the top contenders in Jammu and Kashmir respectively, it makes them ideal partners.

Having partnered the BJP before during the Vajpayee era, the NC does not have any ideological roadblocks to cross, even if most leaders in the party realise that Narendra Modi is no Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

In fact, since the August 5, 2019, abrogation of Article 370, while the PDP has been a constant critic of the BJP government, the NC has chosen a tactical silence over key issues.

Party insiders say this has helped the NC secure the party from “the BJP’s ruthlessness”, unlike the PDP that has seen many big leaders break away.

The NC’s opponents cite the cases against the party’s leadership as the reason for its ambivalence towards the BJP. Citing the case against Farooq over the Jammu and Kashmir Cricket Association, and a J&K Bank case shadow over Omar, a PDP leader said: “The Centre can unleash agencies against them and try to disintegrate them, like they did to the PDP. I see this silence and unclear stand of the party over Article 370 in that context.”

The Congress, once the NC’s long-time ally in J&K, is not too happy about the latter trying to ride two boats. A Congress leader said: “They don’t have a clear stand on many issues… But while the NC distancing itself from ‘secular’ allies would do harm to the Opposition alliance, it will do no good to the party’s own fortunes either.”

For now, the BJP’s Kashmir unit rules out any truck with the NC, even if the NC were so inclined. “They have always had this dual policy, but there are no takers for it now,” said Manzoor Bhat, the BJP’s media in-charge for the Valley. “On the one hand, they are saying the alliance will not do any good to Kashmir, and on the other hand, they were in the front rows in Karnataka (during the swearing-in of the Congress government).”

There is at least one more option that the NC is exploring. While it has hinted at the impossibility of an electoral alliance involving the People’s Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD) – an amalgam of four political parties seeking to restore J&K’s special status – it has chosen to stay very much within the PAGD.

Again, NC president Farooq Abdullah is seen as more keen on an electoral alliance with PAGD partners, than his son.

Many party leaders believe the two NC leaders are rowing in different directions due to the position they find themselves in. Farooq (85) is at the fag end of his career and doesn’t want to go down in memory lane as someone who betrayed J&K by aligning with a party (read the BJP) that ended its special status.

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Omar (53), on the other hand, has his political career ahead of him, and sees the BJP as a necessary evil in it.