The Black vote is the soil that every Democrat needs for a candidacy to blossom into a presidency. Joe Biden won 92% of the Black vote in 2020, and he needs a similarly large share of that vote if he is to win re-election next year. But a new poll suggests that, so far, he hasn’t properly replenished the soil. In a Washington Post/Ipsos poll of more than 1,200 Black, non-Hispanic adults, almost half say Biden’s policies have “made no difference” to Black people’s lives.
There's a good chance that the widespread belief among Black people that Biden has made no difference in Black people’s lives will make little to no difference in how Black people vote.
Obviously, that’s not the feedback the president wishes he were getting less than a year and a half before Election Day 2024. But there’s a good chance that the widespread belief among Black people that Biden has made no difference in Black people’s lives will make little to no difference in how Black people vote. Because that same poll finds that an even greater share of Black adults would be “angry” if Donald Trump were planted back in the White House.
The poll sums up the frustration that is a near constant for Black Americans: While rarely enthusiastic about the Democrats and what they do, they're often brought to the brink of rage by the personalities, policies and plans of the Republicans. It’s for that reason that a poll that has some bad news for Biden doesn’t necessarily translate into good news for Trump.
This was a question those Black adults were asked: “Do you think President Biden’s policies have helped or hurt Black people/you personally, or have Biden’s policies made no difference?” Only 34% of Black voters said Biden’s policies had helped Black people, and 14% said they'd hurt Black people. Again, 49% said his policies had made no difference one way or the other. As for the impact of Biden’s policies on the individual Black person answering the question, 28% said they’d been helped by them, 11% said they’d been hurt by them and 58% said they'd made no difference.
In its story about that poll, The Washington Post explains that while the president “continues to receive relatively high marks from Black voters, he has not yet convinced most that his policies have improved their lives.” But is that why 92% of Black people voted for Biden in 2020, because they thought he’d improve their lives? Is that what Biden needs to do to hold on to Black voters in 2024, convince them he has or will help improve their lives? Or will Black voters’ animosity for Trump, assuming he’s the Republican nominee, be motivation enough?
Here’s why Trump can’t gloat over Black people’s lukewarm assessment of Biden’s presidency. Despite believing that Biden hasn’t done much for Black people, 66% of Black people “somewhat approve” or “strongly approve” of “the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president.”
When the same Black people were asked if they’d even consider voting for Trump in 2024, 78% said no and 9% said yes. When asked how they’d feel if Trump were elected again, 54% said they’d be angry. Another 29% said they’d be dissatisfied.
Given the percentage of Black people who say they’d be angry if Trump was elected again, there probably aren’t that many Black voters who are willing to let their lack of enthusiasm for Biden cause them to sit out the next election.
It's the perfect recipe for being taken for granted, a feeling with which Black voters are numbingly familiar.
But Black voters would probably rather Biden not know that part. Because it's the perfect recipe for being taken for granted, a feeling with which Black voters are numbingly familiar.
Consider what a Democratic strategist told NBC News in December 2021, almost a year after Black voters had completed the task of helping deliver the White House and the Senate to Democrats:
“I do think there is a frustration that you asked us to go above and beyond and show up in the middle of a pandemic and amid all the voter suppression, and not only did we deliver, but we also delivered the Senate,” the strategist said. “And what did we get for it? We get a lot of evasiveness about the filibuster, a lot of excuses about Joe Manchin and being patient.”
That strategist’s assessment isn’t that different from what Shauntey Singletary, a 34-year-old Black woman in Delaware, recently told the Post about Biden.
“I haven’t really seen any change on any of the stuff that he was promoting when he was running for the presidency, or the things that he was saying that he was going to do for the Black community. I haven’t seen that occur.” When asked what she’d do if Biden and Trump were on the ballot again next year, first she sighed, the Post reported. Then she said, “I would definitely not vote for Trump.”
Conventional wisdom says voters need to have a candidate to vote for, not just a candidate to vote against. Traditional thinking also says that voters decide whether to re-elect an incumbent based on whether they believe that their lives have improved or not. Biden would do well to run for re-election as if conventional wisdom applies; that is, he would do well to run like he’s way behind with Black voters.
Biden would do well to run for re-election as if he’s way behind with Black voters.
As Terrance Woodbury, a Democratic pollster, told the Post, “A red wave for Republicans doesn’t require a wave of Black voters voting Republican; it just requires a splintering of [our] coalition by 10,000 votes here or 20,000 votes there.”
But because conventional wisdom rarely applies when Trump is on the ballot, the poll numbers likely won’t be as devastating to Biden as they could be. Black voters may not be passionately voting for him, but if Trump’s his opponent, there’s a great chance that their passionately voting can help him win.
