Raleigh, N.C. – President Obama’s announcement that he supports same-sex marriage is rapidly shifting the opinions of black voters around the country; PPP has found this already in North Carolina and nationally. Nearly all of the slight movement in Pennsylvania toward acceptance of same-sex marriage since PPP last polled on the issue in November is with black voters. Whereas only 36% of all Pennsylvanians thought gay marriage should be legal and 52% illegal last fall, now that is a 39-48 spread. That is because African Americans have moved from being against it by a strong margin (34-52) to being split, 42-41 for it.
“We’ve now found in both North Carolina and Pennsylvania that black voters have moved more toward support of gay marriage in the wake of Barack Obama’s announcement,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “The media’s been asking the wrong question- the big issue isn’t how Obama’s stance will affect his reelection hopes. It’s how Obama’s stance will move public opinion on gay marriage.”
Tom Smith has not done much for his public profile since beating a host of unknowns in the Pennsylvania Republican Senate primary almost a month ago. Now 45% of voters have an opinion on him, up from 25% in March. But whereas voters were split previously—12% favorable and 13% unfavorable—now they are decidedly negative, 16-29. Because of that, freshman Sen. Bob Casey is able to survive his continuously tepid approval numbers (39% approve, 38% disapprove) to post a lead over Smith quite similar to that before the primary. He led 49-31 then, and 49-33 now.
There has been very little movement among Democrats, Republicans, or independents. But the silver lining for Smith is that if he improves upon his 59% of the GOP vote and brings it more towards Casey’s 76% of his own party, he is bound to tighten the race. But he will also have to cut into Casey’s nearly 20-point lead with independents.
Democrats have slight edges in three other statewide races, but with even more undecided than in the Senate contest. Kathleen Kane leads David Freed for Attorney General, 42-33, and the Democrats in the Treasurer and Auditor General races have identical 35-34 edges over their GOP opponents.
PPP surveyed 671 Pennsylvania voters from May 17th to 20th. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.8%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews.
Topline results are below. Full results, including crosstabs, can be found here.
Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Bob
Casey's job performance?
Approve ................. .39%
Disapprove............. .38%
Not sure ................. .23%
Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Tom Smith?
Favorable........................................................ 16%
Unfavorable .................................................... 29%
Not sure .......................................................... 55%
Q3 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat
Bob Casey and Republican Tom Smith. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?
Bob Casey ...................................................... 49%
Tom Smith....................................................... 33%
Undecided....................................................... 19%
Q4 The candidates for Attorney General are
Democrat Kathleen Kane and Republican
David Freed. If the election was today, who
would you vote for?
Kathleen Kane ................................................ 42%
David Freed .................................................... 33%
Undecided....................................................... 25%
Q5 The candidates for Auditor General are
Democrat Eugene DePasquale and
Republican John Maher. If the election was
today, who would you vote for?
Eugene DePasquale....................................... 35%
John Maher..................................................... 34%
Undecided....................................................... 31%
Q6 The candidates for Treasurer are Democrat
Rob McCord and Republican Diana Irey-
Vaughan. If the election was today, who would
you vote for?
Rob McCord.................................................... 35%
Diana Irey-Vaughan ........................................ 34%
Undecided....................................................... 31%
Q7 If there was an election for Congress today,
would you vote Democratic or Republican?
Democratic...................................................... 45%
Republican...................................................... 42%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%
Q8 Do you think same-sex marriage should be
legal or illegal?
Legal............................................................... 39%
Illegal .............................................................. 48%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%
Q9 Which of the following best describes your
opinion on gay marriage: gay couples should
be allowed to legally marry, or gay couples
should be allowed to form civil unions but not
legally marry, or there should be no legal
recognition of a gay couple's relationship?
Gay couples should be allowed to legally
marry ..............................................................35%
Gay couples should be allowed to form civil
unions but not marry .......................................33%
There should be no legal recognition of a gay
couple's relationship .......................................28%
Not sure .......................................................... 3%
Q10 Who did you vote for President in 2008?
John McCain................................................... 44%
Barack Obama................................................ 49%
Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 7%
Q11 Would you describe yourself as very liberal,
somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat
conservative, or very conservative?
Very liberal ...................................................... 12%
Somewhat liberal ............................................ 18%
Moderate......................................................... 28%
Somewhat conservative.................................. 22%
Very conservative ........................................... 19%
Q12 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.
Woman ........................................................... 50%
Man................................................................. 50%
Q13 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,
press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 46%
Republican...................................................... 42%
Independent/Other.......................................... 12%
Q14 If you are white, press 1. If African-American,
press 2. If other, press 3.
White .............................................................. 85%
African-American ............................................ 11%
Other............................................................... 4%
Q15 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to
45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.
18 to 29........................................................... 16%
30 to 45........................................................... 26%
46 to 65........................................................... 38%
Older than 65.................................................. 20%
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