Meon Valley
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 21652 (45.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 19662 (40.9%)
Labour: 5167 (10.8%)
Other: 1554 (3.2%)
Majority: 1989 (4.1%)
New seat: geographically the majority of Meon Valley is formed from the large rural eastern part of the old Winchester seat, now joined by the southern half of the old East Hampshire seat, consisting mainly of the large village of Horndean and Waterlooville.
Profile: The eastern part of the constituency is more urban, being made of the town of Waterlooville, including the village of Cowplain and the Wecock Council estate, and the large semi-rural village of Horndean to its the North. The large western part is far more rural, consisting of picturesque countryside and small towns and villages including Bishops Waltham, Denmead, Droxford & Shedfield. With the exception of parts of Waterlooville it is an affluent and middle-class seat and will be a Conservative/Liberal Democrat marginal.
Candidates: George Hollingbery (Conservative) Educated at Oxford University. Former stockbroker and Chairman of a chain of vets. Currently a property investor. Winchester councillor since 1999, Deputy leader since 2006. Contested Winchester in 2005.
Howard Linsley (Labour) born 1944, Huddersfield. Educated at the University of Hull. Training consultant. Former Hackney councillor. Contested Aldershot 2005.
Liz Leffman (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Christ`s Hospital School, Hereford and Leeds University. Formerly in the advertising and diary industry, she now runds a clothing and textile consultancy business. Contested Witney in 2005.
Steve Harris (UKIP)
Pat Harris (English Democrat)
Graeme Quar (Independent) Educated at Sale County Grammar and Southampton University. Solicitor. Contested Stevenage for the Conservatives 2001.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 84135
Male: 49.2%
Female: 50.8%
Under 18: 22.4%
Over 60: 22.1%
Born outside UK: 4.8%
White: 98.6%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.5%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 77.6%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 22%
No Qualifications 16-74: 22.4%
Owner-Occupied: 81.5%
Social Housing: 10.2% (Council: 5.7%, Housing Ass.: 4.5%)
Privately Rented: 5.3%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 4.9%
Because you talk about yourself in the third person?
Graeme, the moment one of us can get to Meon Valley’s Wiki article, we’ll put you on the candidate list there….
I back the Tories here to put a man on the Meon.
The objective for the LDs for the next GE here is probably less to actually win than to decontaminate themselves from Oaten, stop George Hollingberry getting too solid a cushion (and, if the LD vote really subsides, he could get over 50% and establish a solid majority in the 20% range) and build up a good second place for the election after next. But, personally, Oaten’s shenanigans probably killed off that chance. Hollingberry would have had a reasonable chance in Winchester had he stood there again against Tod.
Tory win with a small majority, 2,000 to 4,000.
The Tories should win unless the notionals are wrong for some reason. Although the notional calculations are a very good guide there are usually a handful of seats where it seems after the election that maybe they weren’t so accurate. That’s not a complaint since 95% of the notional results are usually excellent.
I can’t see this seat being that marginal.Probably a Con Maj of 15-20% 7-10K.
Blue flag all the way – Go George!
Which were Hampshire North East’s predecessor seats, and which seats have included Heckfield and Liphook? I ask that on here because the Hampshire North East page seems to have disappeared!
From memory Hampshire North East was formed in 1995 from parts of the former Aldershot and Hampshire East seats. I’ve misplaced my Rallings & Thrasher guide to the 1992 notional results which would give a definite answer.
Liphook I’m sure was in East Hampshire before 1997, and I suspect in Petersfield before 1983. However I could of course be wrong.
Liphook is quite mysterious,
also
on the border of Surrey, W Sussex and Hampshire.
I think you’re right Barnaby,
it used to be a division ward called Bramshott & Liphook, but I think that’s been changed.
The English Democrat candidate was removed from Wiki, without explanation, so I’ve reverted the blanking.
Cons Hold= 5,000 maj