Harlow
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 16431 (41.6%)
Conservative: 16074 (40.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 5040 (12.8%)
Other: 1932 (4.9%)
Majority: 357 (0.9%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 16356 (41.2%)
Labour: 16453 (41.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 5002 (12.6%)
UKIP: 981 (2.5%)
Other: 941 (2.4%)
Majority: 97 (0.2%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 13941 (34.8%)
Labour: 19169 (47.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 5381 (13.4%)
UKIP: 1223 (3%)
Other: 401 (1%)
Majority: 5228 (13%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 15347 (32.1%)
Labour: 25861 (54.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 4523 (9.5%)
Referendum: 1422 (3%)
Other: 659 (1.4%)
Majority: 10514 (22%)
Boundary changes: Very minor – loses Broadley Common and Roydon Hamlet to Epping Forest while gaining Hastingwood and Matching from Epping Forest and Brentwood respectively.
Profile: An essex new town built from 1947. Harlow is surprising Conservative considering its high proportion of social housing and domination by the skilled working class and the lower middle class. In 2005 it was one of the most marginal seats and the final seat to be declared. The result was announced on Saturday morning after three recounts, the count having been suspended on Friday due to the tiredness of the counters.
Outgoing MP: Bill Rammell(Labour) born 1959. Educated Burnt Mill Comprehensive and Cardiff University. Worked as a university adminsitrator prior to his election. Parliamentary Under-Secretary at the Foreign Office during the last Parliament, became Minister of State with resibility for higher and further education after the 2005 election (more information at They work for you)
Candidates: Robert Halfon (Conservative) Educated at Highgate School and Exeter University. Former Chief of Staff to Oliver Letwin and current Political Director of Conservative Friends of Israel. Contested Harlow 2001, 2005.
Bill Rammell(Labour) born 1959. Educated Burnt Mill Comprehensive and Cardiff University. Worked as a university adminsitrator prior to his election. Parliamentary Under-Secretary at the Foreign Office during the last Parliament, became Minister of State with resibility for higher and further education after the 2005 election (more information at They work for you)
David White (Liberal Democrat) Educated at Oxford University.
John Croft (UKIP)
Eddy Butler (BNP) Educated at University of London. BNP national elections officer. Contested Eastern region 2009 European elections.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 89207
Male: 48.7%
Female: 51.3%
Under 18: 23.6%
Over 60: 19.3%
Born outside UK: 6.1%
White: 95.2%
Black: 0.9%
Asian: 1.5%
Mixed: 1.2%
Other: 1.2%
Christian: 68.3%
Muslim: 1.3%
Full time students: 1.9%
Graduates 16-74: 12.5%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.5%
Owner-Occupied: 62%
Social Housing: 31.7% (Council: 28.9%, Housing Ass.: 2.9%)
Privately Rented: 4.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 2.6%
Robert Halfon contested this seat in 2001 and 2005. On the first occasion he more than halved the majority from 10,514 to 5228 and on the second he virtually eliminated it altogther. By way of symmetry it is likley he will be able to take this seat with a majority of about 5,000 of his own in 2010 (whether a 10,000 majority beckons in 2014/15 is perhaps more doubtful)
BNP have selected Eddy Butler
Thanks for the information, Matt.
The other parties should take note – see recent discussion in relation to Leicestershire North West.
I think (and it was also suggested on Laurie Taylor’s Radio 4 programme late last night) that most people thinking of voting BNP feel that both Labour and the Tories have let them down. They are not going to vote to avoid voting BNP tactically because this is a Labour/Conservative marginal.
To hold out the BNP, the major parties are going to have to offer things to groups they have neglected by overconcentrating on markeing software that identifies Labour/Conservative waverers.
And I doubt whether race is actually the big issue. As much as anything, it is jobs. Specifically, the parties need to do something about opportunities for the older, less skilled, unemployed, not go on with their blinkered, ageist, concentration on 16-24 year olds. Recent Labour Market Survey statistics show that re-employment of unemployed men over 50 has dropped from already appalling levels, and those concerned know the situation all too well, even if they are hardly likely to peruse Office of National Statistics tables..
There was a recount in Harlow in 1979 – it ended with Labour holding on by 1,200-1,300 despite a 12.9% swing to the Tory, John Powley.
But when John Powley MP narrowly lost to Labour at Norwich North in 1987, by 336 votes, there was no recount. (I read this in something written by the Labour Party just after that election).
Harlow is featured on Nick Robinson’s tour of marginals. MPs’ expenses scandal might mean people vote LD, BNP or UKIP or not vote at all. JJB – is the Tory PPC here still on crutches? He was in October and again last month.
John Powley lost to Labour in Norwich South, not North (small detail). He was leader of Cambridge City Council during my student days until Labour took effective control.
Here’s an opportunity to “declare” this seat, and contribute to the overall prediction for 2010
http://hungparliament2010.blogspot.com/2010/01/i-undermentioned-hereby-give-notice.html