Northamptonshire South
Notional 2005 Results:
Conservative: 21866 (50%)
Labour: 11249 (25.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 8362 (19.1%)
Other: 2227 (5.1%)
Majority: 10617 (24.3%)
New seat:
Profile: Rural and sparsely populated seat south of Northamptonshire, though it is a site of planned housing development. The largest towns are Brackley and Towcester, both traditional market towns. Towcester, the administrative centre for South Northamptonshire council, is best known for its race course and the seat also contains part of Silverstone race course, which straddles the Northamptonshire/Buckinghamshire border and provides a centre for high tech industry (two F1 teams have their bases within the constituency).
To the south the constituency stretches close to the outskirts of Milton Keynes, taking in nearby villages like Old Stratford and Cosgrove, while to the north it includes villages like Wootton and Hardingstone which have become affluent suburbs of Northampton itself. The seat should be safely Conservative.
Candidates: Andrea Leadsom (Conservative)
Matthew May (Labour)
Scott Collins (Liberal Democrat)
Marcus Rock (Green)
Jim Broomfield (UKIP)
Tony Tappy (English Democrat)
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 94866
Male: 49.8%
Female: 50.2%
Under 18: 24.6%
Over 60: 16.6%
Born outside UK: 5.5%
White: 97.2%
Black: 0.5%
Asian: 1%
Mixed: 0.8%
Other: 0.5%
Christian: 76.1%
Full time students: 1.9%
Graduates 16-74: 22.2%
No Qualifications 16-74: 21.4%
Owner-Occupied: 81%
Social Housing: 9.8% (Council: 8.2%, Housing Ass.: 1.6%)
Privately Rented: 6.1%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5%
Turnout in Daventry was 68.1% in 2005 so I’m expecting an increase in turnout of about 6-7% compared to that seat, although it wasn’t quite as high in Northampton South.
Interesting that the Tories in this seat are likely to poll about twice as many votes as Labour do in Northampton North, so if Labour hold Northampton North that’ll be another factor in Labour being able to win seats on a small share of the vote across the country.
Although around 40% of this seat is from Northampton South, where the turnout was around 60% overall (although the parts of Northampton South moving into this seat probably had a higher turnout than that)
Which seats has the civil parish of Middleton Cheney been in? I always thought it was in Oxfordshire, near Banbury.
It is near Banbury but I think it’s always been in Northants. Thus it would have been in either Daventry or S Northants depending on what the seat was called at the time.
‘it would have been in either Daventry or S Northants depending on what the seat was called at the time’
S Northants existed from 1832 to 1918 and from 1950 to 1974 and will again from 2010, and Daventry from 1918 to 1950 and since 1974, but of course with redrawn boundaries from the next election
CON HOLD – IMO.
Actually Harry I was in a pub with several old maps on the wall last week, and Middleton Cheney was shown (in the 17th century) to be in Northants at that time too.
David your prediction is clearly correct, though not hard to arrive at. So far I have agreed with all of your “IMO” predictions including, regrettably, High Peak.
I’m doing the easy ones first. How about my overall prediction: C 285 L255 LD 75 O 35? This site is peppered with ‘ Cleggy Bashers’. I think you are wrong. Remember, I can’t stand the fence-sitting, mealy-mouthed Liberal Democrats. Gutless wonders!
=<
Captain Edward FitzRoy, Speaker of the Commons during the early years of the war who died in office of bronchitis in 1943, was MP here from 1900-06 and from January 1910 until his death.
This is now my parents seat, they were looking forward to voting against Brian Bingley (con) in Northampton South who they have a lothing for. However they have been moved.
Talking about it though its boundary changes like this which give the whole system a bad name. By creating this seat out of all of the most staunchly conservative areas and giving it a whopping 10000 majority the boundarys have made a swathe of adjoining seats winnable for labour. (Northampton South from Con 1000 maj to Lab 4000 maj for example.)
These kind of decisions are exactly why the Cons will need a 10pt lead to get a majority.