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Sunday, January 10, 2010

Tories turn up the volume on immigration

Today's General Election Brief covers Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

It has been done carefully but the Tories are talking about immigration again. The volume is a fraction of that which immigration received under Michael Howard but there is definitely more attitude from the Tories on the topic. Yesterday we had Chris Grayling's announcement of a battery of measures that would deal with the weakest link in the current immigration system; the student visa system. Today David Cameron told Andrew Marr that he wanted to cut immigration to "tens of thousands". In the graph below from Fraser Nelson we can see the significance of that pledge if it was honoured:

2_fullsize The Tories have announced three other policies in recent days that should encourage the Tory base. On Friday there was the pledge to give headteachers more powers to sack failing teachers. Overnight there was the well-received commitment to provide scholarships to the children of servicemen killed in action. This morning Cameron announced measures to help small businesses.

The events in Northern Ireland may be good for the Tories if the General Election is close. The troubles of Peter Robinson and the Democratic Unionist Party could benefit the Northern Ireland alliance of the UUP and Conservatives. I wrote about this earlier. Ten seats is the upper limit of possibilities but five or six seats is now very possible (potentially giving Cameron more MPs in NI than in Scotland).

Another bad weekend for "Shambles" Brown. Congratulations to Iain Dale for publishing Peter Watt's insidery account of the "shambles" of Brown's Downing Street operation and of the aborted £1.5 million plan for a honeymoon election in 2007. Watch the Sky News report.

Screen shot 2010-01-09 at 07.53.53 Alistair Darling spoke the truth about public spending. David Cameron told Andrew Marr that the Chancellor's interview for the Saturday Times was an important moment and it was. Darling warned that "The next spending review will be the toughest we have had for 20 years." He told the truth and the fact that he said it shows he's no longer under Brown's thumb.

No big movement in the polls following the SnowStorm plot. It's only one poll but ICM's survey for The Sunday Telegraph suggested the Tory lead is stable at about 10%. The ICM numbers are unusually almost identical to the ConHome Poll of Polls; 40/30/17.4.

Tim Montgomerie

> Thursday's General Election Brief.

Posted at 18:45 in General Election Brief, Immigration and asylum | | Comments (43)

The Conservatives and Unionists may hold up to ten seats in Northern Ireland after the General Election

Screen shot 2010-01-10 at 14.04.40 On Radio 4's The World This Weekend, former Northern Ireland First Minister David Trimble and now Tory peer has said that it is increasingly unlikely that Peter Robinson will survive the week as Stormont's most senior politician. He noted that he had not receiving the backing of any of his senior Democratic Unionist Party colleagues. If there are fresh elections for the NI Assembly Baron Trimble predicted that Conservatives and Unionists could emerge as the leading party. The DUP is almost certain not to agree to the devolution of policing and that, alongside the turmoil in the DUP could lead to fresh elections or direct rule on a temporary basis.

It is possible that the events in Northern Ireland could have a major impact on the outcome of the UK General Election. The serious tensions in the DUP could produce defections to the new Conservative and Unionist alliance and/or aid the prospects of our candidates in the province.  David Cameron is a big supporter of the alliance and has promised to campaign for Tory and Unionist candidates during the General Election campaign. Last April the Conservative leader said that he wanted "MPs from Northern Ireland serving in a Conservative Government at Westminster."

PATERSON OWEN 2009 Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary Owen Paterson spends huge amounts of time across the Irish Sea building the alliance. I happen to know he's been in Belfast for four of the last six days (unlike Shaun Woodward who spent a lot of time in London, shoring up support for Gordon Brown).

The investment that Cameron and Paterson have put into building relations with the UUP may turn out to be much more than a principled commitment to the integrity of the United Kingdom. Ten seats would be at the upper end of possibilities but the investment may pay big political dividends on polling day.

Tim Montgomerie

The precarious nature of the situation in Northern Ireland was illustrated horrifically on Friday with the attempted murder of a policeman by a dissident nationalist terror group. Constable Peadar Heffron remains critically ill and my thoughts and prayers are with him.

Posted at 14:10 in Northern Ireland | | Comments (31)

Cameron tells Marr that he wants net immigration cut to the "tens of thousands"

Screen shot 2010-01-10 at 10.15.51 Highlights, not verbatim, from David Cameron's interview with Andrew Marr.

  • David Cameron insisted the Tories are not a one man team after Andrew Marr asked him about the very "I" focused poster launch. The Conservative leader said that one of the things that he is most proud of is the strong team he has built. He highlighted the fact he had brought back Ken Clarke and William Hague on to the frontbench.
  • He refused to be drawn on whether he was a radical in the Thatcherite tradition or more of a manager.  I'm a modern, compassionate Conservative, he said, but the shake up he planned would be radical. "Responsibility" is my watchword. We need "a revolution in responsibility".
  • He said that the state had gone too far in terms of legislative activism, IT databases, ID cards, and political bureaucracy. The state needs to be pulled back and Conservatives would start cutting the deficit earlier than Labour. We are not the "old Tories" of the 1980s and we are not going back. I have not changed the Conservative Party as a wheeze to get elected. One of the big changes is our absolute and non-negotiable support for the NHS.
  • Cameron praised Alistair Darling for yesterday's Times interview in which he accepted that there must be spending cuts. He said the Chancellor's intervention was an important moment in politics.
  • Signalling again that the Tories' emergency budget - should they win office - might involve significant corporation tax reform, Mr Cameron said that the emergency budget would be about growth.
  • He announced some measures for small businesses including action to make it easier to start a small business and deregulation that would allow tenants of social landlords to run businesses from their homes.
  • Mr Cameron said he did not support a population of 70 million. Net immigration had been 200,000 in recent years, he said, and Conservatives wanted to cut that to the levels of the 1990s, ie "tens of thousands" rather than hundreds of thousands.  The immigration cap would be fixed each year, in accordance with Britain's economic needs. [Yesterday, Chris Grayling announced a crackdown on the student visa system.]
  • He said he was a big supporter of the BBC and of the licence fee. He appeared to reject a proposal from Greg Dyke that the licence fee be abolished and the Corporation become funded from general taxation. On balance, he said, there were dangers of it looking like state control.  He promised to loosen up the rules to help commercial broadcasters compete with the "dominant" BBC.
  • Near the end of the interview he noted that he'd cut Tory debts from £23m to £5m. That, I hope, is a taste of what I'll achieve in Britain, he concluded.

Screen shot 2010-01-10 at 10.16.14 After the interview was over, sat on the sofa with Chris Evans ('the new Wogan'), the Tory leader won some extra street cred with the revelation that the two used to play football together on Wednesday afternoons. Evans was a goalkeeper and Cameron an opposing striker. The new Radio 2 breakfast presenter said the Conservative leader had been pretty good.

Tim Montgomerie 

Posted at 10:19 in Cameron interviews, Immigration and asylum | | Comments (98)

Fairer seat size must be a Conservative priority (or re-election will be a tall order)

In the first of a short series highlighting issues which need early and urgent attention from an incoming Conservative Government, ConservativeHome Contributing Editor Paul Goodman  considers the need to redraw constituency boundaries to level a playing field which is currently weighted in Labour's favour.

GOODMAN PAUL FACE Let’s start with a simple comparison.  Imagine that at the coming election we win 40% of the vote, Labour 30%, the Liberals 18% and others 12% [The results in the overnight ICM poll].  All else being equal, we’d have a Commons majority of eight.

Now reverse those first two figures.  Imagine that Labour gain 40%, we take 30%, and the other two figures stay the same.  Labour would have a majority of 138 – an 130 seat difference on the same share of the vote, according to UK Polling Report.

Put aside, for a moment, the likelihood or otherwise of the vote dividing up in this way.  Wave away, too, the rejoinder that all things are never equal, and that regional swings, local factors, tactical voting and so on must be taken into account. The big point remains: the rules of the game work against us.  (I will stick to “rules of the game” rather than “electoral system”, because the latter suggests the matter of the voting system, which is extraneous to the case I wish to make.)  In the big game between blues and reds, we start off several goals down – and that’s before taking into account that we start from a base of under 200 MPs.

I concede that not all of our setbacks stem from the rules.  There are other factors at work, and I don’t mean policy or presentation.  For example, our vote is unevenly distributed: it tends to pile up where we don’t need it – namely, in seats that we already hold.   Martin Baxter of Electoral Calculus argues that this differential turnout is the most important element of all.  So do others – as we’ll see later.

Or again, we’ve tended to be the victim of tactical voting, as Liberal and Labour voters switch to the leading local anti-Conservative challenger to keep us out.  It’s worth noting that Labour may be the losers from this phenomenon next time, in what’s called “tactical unwind”.  Mike Smithson has explored this possibility repeatedly on the Political Betting site and his pieces are worth checking out.

None the less, it’s evident that the rules of the game don’t simply work against us, but are unfair as they stand.  I want generally to steer clear of complex figures, but it’s vital to illustrate the main weakness of the rules – that Labour get more for less.

Continue reading "Fairer seat size must be a Conservative priority (or re-election will be a tall order)" »

Posted at 08:48 in Constitution and democracy | | Comments (89)

Saturday, January 09, 2010

Tories promise scholarships for the children of military dead

Our country has not always looked after its armed forces veterans. A big theme of David Cameron's leadership has been to change that.

A CCHQ press release reminds us of the commitments already made:

  1. "Doubling the Operational Allowance.  A future Conservative Government will double the operational allowance to £4,800 for a six-month tour.
  2. A Veterans’ Mental Health Service.  A future Conservative Government will pilot a mental health follow-up telephone service for our veterans who have been deployed on operations. It will require mental health professionals to contact former members of the Armed Forces who have seen active service a year after they returned to civilian life.
  3. Dedicated Military Wards in Hospitals. Whilst we support the setting up of a military-managed ward at Selly Oak Hospital in Birmingham, we believe that military and civilian patients should be separated more completely, where possible, in dedicated military wards."

Tonight, George Osborne and Liam Fox have announced that a Conservative government will provide "university and further education scholarships for the children of servicemen and women killed while on active duty." The scholarships would cover £8,210 in tuition fees and another £5,000 pa maintenance.

The Shadow Chancellor commented: "These university and college scholarships will provide financial help for the families of fallen servicemen and women – and will be a lasting tribute to their bravery and sacrifice."

The Shadow Defence Secretary added: "This is a clear sign of our commitment to the Military Covenant. Our duty of care extends not only to those serving in our Armed Forces but to their dependants. For those fighting for our security, they have a right to know that if the worst happens their families will be properly cared for."

A terrific and worthy policy. The BBC has a report.

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 21:45 in Compassionate conservatism, Defence, Education | | Comments (25)

Tories 10% ahead in ICM poll

ICMNo big move from ICM, since their last poll before Christmas. The 1,003 voters were questioned on Wednesday and Thursday.

The Sunday Telegraph's Patrick Hennessy reports: "David Cameron was more likely to be trusted by voters on three key issues than Mr Brown, scoring clear wins on the NHS (by 43 per cent to 35 per cent), schools (46-34) and the economy (43-36)."

The poll projection of a majority of eight for the Conservatives is eerily close to Iain Dale's announcement of his General Election prediction; a Tory majority of 12.

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 17:49 in Opinion polls | | Comments (138)

Chris Grayling moves to fix the weakest link in Britain's borders

In a move that will see Britain's borders better protected the Shadow Home Secretary Chris Grayling has today announced a battery of measures to crack down on abuse of the student visa system. International students have trebled in number since Labour came to power and the overall overseas student market is worth £8.5bn to the British economy but many students disappear once in Britain, becoming a burden to public services and infrastructrure.  They then work illegally and some are security risks. "Tens of thousands of foreign nationals with no right to work in Britain had been living here for years," reports The Times, "under the false cover given by hundreds of bogus colleges in London, Bradford and Manchester."

The measures include:

  1. Only the top universities will be able to fast track students through the immigration system.
  2. Most foreign students will be expected to deposit a £1,000 to £6,000 bond that will only be repaid after the student has finished their studies and left the country. Forfeited bond payments will be used to help pay for deportations.
  3. Student migrants will have to return to their home countries and make a new visa application if they want to switch courses or move to a work permit visa.
  4. There will be a clampdown on foreign students using the existence of UK bank accounts to borrow large amounts of money.  There will be clearer requirements for applicants for a student visa to demonstrate ability to fund their studies.
  5. UK citizens associated with bogus colleges will be registered and tracked. 1,925 organisations have been approved by the UK Border Agency to sponsor migrant students but there are only 165 universities and Higher Education colleges in the United Kingdom.
  6. Greater enforcement of existing rules by the Border Police Force including more unannounced raids on colleges suspected to be bogus. There will also be closer inspection of applications from very sensitive countries. An extraordinary 13,000 visa applications from Afgahinistan and Pakistan have not been fraud-checked since October 2008, according to Tory research.

Grayling-Red-Tie Mr Grayling commented:

"The student visa system is a huge loophole in our border controls, and despite years of promises the Government has completely failed to deal with the problem. This loophole has not only allowed large numbers of people to enter the country who would not have been able to do so otherwise, but is now a genuine security risk for us. In the current climate we cannot possibly go on like this. Our proposals will transform the system, making it much more difficult for those who want to abuse it, whilst encouraging genuine students to come to our colleges and universities."

Today's announcement is a welcome sign that the Conservatives are addressing the immigration issue.  It mustn't be the last time.

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 09:01 in Education, Immigration and asylum | | Comments (75)

Friday, January 08, 2010

Tories "would give heads more power to fire weak teachers"

GOVE MICHAEL RED TIE The Guardian reports:

Heads would be given tougher powers to fire weak and incompetent teachers the Tories promised today, putting them on a potential collision course with unions. Michael Gove, the Conservative shadow schools secretary, said heads "lived or died" by the skills of their staff and should be given greater freedom to assess, challenge and, where necessary, sack them.

Under current regulations, school leaders are only allowed to formally observe a qualified teacher they suspect of being substandard for three hours each year. They must give them prior notice and inform them of their concerns in advance. Gove told the North of England Education Conference in York that he would abolish this "arbitrary" limit and allow heads – and school inspectors – to sit in on as many lessons as necessary to root out underperforming teachers.

Michael Gove is quoted as telling the conference:

"Any constraint on the capacity of a headteacher to observe teaching in their school to my mind is misplaced. Headteachers are responsible for what goes on in their schools; they live or die and survive or fail as a result of that. They should have the opportunity to mentor and to challenge. There shouldn't be a restriction on it at all.

"It's only by observing lessons that heads can improve the quality of teaching. There shouldn't be an arbitrary constraint on that. We would also like to have a system where inspectors have more time to observe teachers."

All of this chimes well with Conservative thinking that head teachers should be trusted to run their schools rather than being micro-managed from Whitehall.

Unfortunate, though, that Chris Keates has already opted to raise opposition to the move on behalf of the NASUWT, suggesting that this "would in effect licence and endorse management bullying in schools."

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 16:55 in Education | | Comments (31)

David Cameron's "Cameron Direct" meetings will make him all the more prepared for the TV debates

Picture 12 On Monday, just a few hours before the first snow fell across the capital, I braved the cold to go to a church in Hammersmith in order to observe a Cameron Direct meeting - my first, David Cameron's 57th.

More than 230 residents from across the redrawn marginal constituency - which will be contested for the Conservatives by Shaun Bailey - turned up to spend an hour firing questions on anything and everything at the Tory leader.

Picture 18 Readers may be unfamiliar with the format, since the meetings, which have now attended by well in excess of 10,000 people from all corners of the United Kingdom (as illustrated by the map) since they began in June 2008, are explicitly closed to party members. It's an opportunity for ordinary voters - sympathetic, apathetic, floating and indeed downright hostile - to probe the man who will be seeking their help in getting him the keys to Number Ten at the impending general election.

It's a very basic set-up: Mr Cameron takes to a modest 6-inch high podium (without a lectern), makes a few introductory remarks and then immediately gives the floor to the voters wanting to question him - which inevitably include some who are actively hostile to the party, as was the case in Hammersmith on Monday.

I felt that he came across extremely well in the environment: honest, human and - importantly - not just seeking to tell the questioners what they wanted to hear. And at those points when he was not willing to play to the audience, it should at least have garnered him additional respect from the genuine floating voters in attendance for being prepared to stick to his guns.

Continue reading "David Cameron's "Cameron Direct" meetings will make him all the more prepared for the TV debates" »

Posted at 07:20 in Blogs, websites, e-etc, Cameron 'The Man', Election debates, Health | | Comments (93)

Thursday, January 07, 2010

Tories 12% ahead in YouGov poll taken after plot to oust Brown

It's a small movement and I don't think we should read much into it but the Conservatives are up 2% and Labour down 1% on yesterday's YouGov poll for The Sun. Just wait until the Election campaign begins properly and we'll be drowning in polling numbers, all changing by the day.

YouGovSun Tim Montgomerie

Midnight update:

Further findings from the poll - which was conducted between 4pm on Wednesday and noon on Thursday - are as follows:

  • 67% of all voters either have no confidence in Labour (39%) or less confidence as a result of the botched coup against Gordon Brown (28%)
  • 62% said that a leadership ballot would be a distraction from the problems that the country faces, such as the recession and terrorism, rising to 78% among Labour voters
  • Only 29% of voters thought a leadership ballot as proposed by Hoon and Hewitt was a good idea

YouGov sampled 2,832 British adults for the poll.

Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 22:51 in Opinion polls | | Comments (50)

Election fever cooled by snow

ElectionBrief The big freeze squeezes out election stories. Not much to brief about today. None of the parties launched big new initiatives, wisely deciding that any election initiatives would be buried in a snowdrift of weather stories.

David Miliband was almost as much a loser from the snowstorm plot as Brown. Andrew Grice notes that the Foreign Secretary has sat on the fence during all three botched coup attempts against Brown... "and fallen off".  David Miliband's hesitation, yesterday, will have appealed to neither the loyalists nor the insurrectionists. As Bagehot put it: "He ended up looking both tame and disloyal at the same time." Miliband was, not of course, the only Cabinet minister to give a grudging endorsement of Brown. Iain Martin speculated that Darling even asked Brown to consider quitting. Andrew Neil concludes that the legacy of the SnowStorm plot will be the "half-hearted" support that the PM enjoys from his Cabinet. Every Political Editor knows at least one Cabinet minister who is briefing against the PM.

Janet Daley warms to a more human Cameron. ConservativeHome summaries the Tory leader's Today programme interview here. Janet Daley (who has become increasingly positive about Mr Cameron in recent months) enjoyed his willingness to apologise for his marriage policy gaffe. She thinks he is coming out of his PR man years and becoming himself: "Admitting that he had simply screwed up earlier in the week with his unintentionally ambiguous wording on the marriage question, he sounded as engagingly frank as he generally does in private conversation."

Hilton&Cameron Who is out to get Steve Hilton? There have been a stream of anti-Hilton stories in recent days (another one tonight) and I fear they are coming from within the Conservative machine. Steve isn't perfect (who is?) but he has been vital in broadening the Conservative Party's appeal. I've defended him before against unfair critics and hope that his attacker will start spending more time attacking the real enemy.

The first defaced Tory poster. Hat tip to Virtual Economics:

Screen shot 2010-01-07 at 22.11.18 Tim Montgomerie

> Yesterday's General Election Brief

Posted at 22:21 in General Election Brief | | Comments (15)

Conservatives welcome Saga's Manifesto for the Over-50s as "an important contribution to debate"

Waterson Nigel In the run-up to the general election there will be all manner of interest groups and campaign organisations presenting their own manifestos full of demands for politicians.

Today it's the turn of Saga, which has presented a Manifesto for Older People - a group which they define today as being all those over 50.

The Daily Mail has covered its publication, which has been welcomed by Nigel Waterson (pictured), the Shadow Minister for Older People. He told ConservativeHome:

"I welcome Saga's work - I talk to them on a regular basis and value their input. I certainly agree on the importance of older voters at the next general election and will be looking at their manifesto very closely. We will support some of their ideas, whilst other we will not be able to support given financial constraints. But it is a thoroughly important contribution to the debate and I think the fact that we have a shadow minister for older people demonstrates our commitment to the needs of older voters."

The manifesto was drawn up after a Populus poll of more than 14,000 over-50s and the Mail reminds politicians that they ignore it at their peril "as that generation is far more likely to vote than its younger counterparts".

Below is the Mail's graphic of the main demands of the over-50s, illustrated by the ex-BBC newsreader Moira Stuart, whose removal from the main bulletins was deemed ageist by many.

Picture 21
Jonathan Isaby

Posted at 16:01 in Quality of life | | Comments (24)

Captions please...

X2_7d3095 The photo was taken after David Cameron opened a new call centre at CCHQ.

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 15:02 in CCHQ, Light relief | | Comments (57)

"I messed up... I misdescribed our family policy," says Cameron

Speaking this morning on Radio 4's Today programme, David Cameron said that he had "messed up" describing his policy on marriage during an interview with the BBC on Monday. "I misdescribed our policy," he said, during a busy day of lots of interviews but, we want to recognise marriage in the tax system and it will be done in the next Parliament.

Presented with a series of questions on Tory commitments and whether they were still valid, he responded by saying that the reason why the Conservatives were publishing a draft manifesto, chapter by chapter, was so that the public has time to fully understand Conservative plans.

He had his first public opportunity to comment on yesterday's 'SnowStorm Plot'. Mr Cameron said that the country faced huge challenges at the moment, not least a "massive deficit" and a war in Afghanistan. If ever, he said, there was a time the country needed united and focused leadership then that time was now.  Rather than focusing on the country's problems, Labour ministers were focused on saving their careers. If the BBC's Nick Robinson is right, the Tory leader continued, and the Cabinet is not enthusiastic about Gordon Brown, it is difficult to see why the country should be supportive of him either.

On four other topics:

  1. On prisons Mr Cameron repeated the Tory promise to abolish Labour's early release programme and to introduce 'MinMax' sentencing so that everyone knows the minimum and maximum sentence that a convicted offender will serve.
  2. The promise to freeze council tax for two years is also still valid.
  3. Mr Cameron told Evan Davis (who you can now follow on Twitter) that he did not agree with John Major's criticisms of the political parties using pagers (and now Blackberrys) to message every MP with the lines to take. We live in a fast-moving, 24 hour news cycle and we need to get messages out quickly, he said. That did not mean that backbenchers shouldn't have more independent power, however, and there should be more free votes in the Commons under a Conservative government.
  4. The Tory leader dodged questions about whether that giant photo of him on Tory posters was airbrushed (there has been a lot of speculation). I think we can assume, therefore, that a little Photoshopping did take place!

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 08:41 in Cameron interviews, Family and relationships | | Comments (80)

Wednesday, January 06, 2010

Tory lead was 9% BEFORE today's attack on Brown's leadership

YouGovMidnight

Here are the results for another question asked by YouGov for The Sun:

"Which would make you more likely to vote Labour at the coming general election - Gordon  Brown remaining Labour Party leader, or Mr Brown standing down and someone else taking over as Labour Party leader?"

  • Gordon Brown remaining Labour Party leader: 14%                               
  • Someone else taking over as Labour Party leader: 19%                                
  • It would make no difference, I would vote labour anyway: 12%                                 
  • It would make no difference, I would NOT vote Labour anyway: 46%                  
  • Don't know: 10%

Tim Montgomerie     

Posted at 22:51 in Opinion polls | | Comments (58)

Hewitt and Hoon's act of self harm is massive boost to Conservatives

6a00d83451b31c69e2012876a5a168970c-250wi The SnowStorm Plot looks likely to melt away. Only the usual suspects have backed the call by Patricia Hewitt and Geoff Hoon (two people who wanted the EU job that Brown gave to Baroness Ashton) for a secret ballot of Labour MPs. The Labour Party now looks more divided than ever after today. A massive gift to the Conservatives.

Gordon Brown won another PMQs. Jonathan Isaby disagrees but I thought Brown edged PMQs again today. He was able to exploit the Tory leader's unfortunate miscommunication of the party's policy on a married tax allowance on Monday (that was quickly corrected).

A good day for Eric Pickles. CCHQ was quick with a statement from the Tory Chairman and his media performances were perfectly pitched throughout the afternoon. Watch him here.

A bad day for the BBC's Nick Robinson. He told BBCtv viewers that there was no plot before we learnt there was one. He also dissed bloggers for suggesting that there was a plot. Guido Fawkes enjoyed some YouTube revenge.

Screen shot 2010-01-06 at 19.15.31 The Spectator remains on the attack against David Cameron.  Spectator Editor Fraser Nelson has adopted an aggressive tone towards David Cameron since the start of the year (eg here and here).  CCHQ won't like the front cover of this week's Spectator.  The edition includes an article by David 'Jeremiah' Selbourne that attacks every aspect of the Cameron agenda.

Tim Montgomerie

> Yesterday's ConHome General Election Brief.

Posted at 20:11 in General Election Brief | | Comments (61)

Patricia Hewitt and Geoff Hoon adopt the Tory slogan: We can't go on like this

Today:

Screen shot 2010-01-06 at 16.43.34 Monday:

6a00d83451b31c69e2012876aac44e970c-500wi

Tim Montgomerie

> Jonathan Isaby noticed the imitation earlier.

7pm: Steve Green of The Daily Referendum has produced his own poster in response to today's developments:

Gordon Splits Labour

Posted at 16:42 in Campaign materials | | Comments (26)

What the Cameron leadership wants (and doesn't want) from the SnowStorm Plot

I've been working the phones in the last hour and this is what I'm hearing from my best Conservative sources:

The ideal scenario for the Conservatives is for Brown to call an immediate General Election and deal with the "Snowstorm plotters" that way. This is what happened in the last episode of The Thick Of It when Dan Millar challenged PM 'Tom" for the leadership and Malcolm Tucker rushed the nation to the polls. If life imitated art this would be the Tories' dream scenario. It would look like Brown was running from his party and he would not be a credible leader. The Tory election machine is ready to go. I think this scenario is about 99% unlikely but it's a fun idea.

The next preferred scenario is for Brown to be bloodily ousted and then for a fractious leadership contest between one of the Milibands and Harriet Harman or Alan Johnson. Brown will go if the Cabinet moves against him but the lack of an agreed alternative candidate is holding them back.

The third best option from CCHQ's point of view is for Brown to survive the Hoon/Hewitt plot but stagger on but clearly without the confidence of his party. This looks the likeliest option unless in Downing Street right now a delegation of Harman/Straw/Mandelson/Miliband are waiting outside the Prime Minister's study.

The least attractive option is for Brown to go quietly and the Cabinet to agree that Alan Johnson takes control. The Tories have based this election on Brown as leader. They want him to stay.

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 14:57 in Conservative strategy | | Comments (87)

David Cameron uses humour to good effect at a lively PMQs

Jonathan Isaby's verdict:

"A very strong performance by David Cameron who used humour to very good effect, with Gordon Brown failing to properly address the questions he was asked."

Picture 112.02 Gordon Brown begins by making his customary tributes to the soldiers killed in Afghanistan over the Christmas recess. He also sends condolences to the family of David Taylor, the Labour Mp who died on Boxing Day.

12.04 Answering a question from Labour MP Brian Donohoe, Brown says "a number of actions" in key areas have been taken with respect to aviation security after the attempted bomb plot on Christmas Day.

12.06 David Cameron echoes Gordon Brown's tributes to the dead servicemen and to David Taylor. He then reminds the  House that the Government is borrowing £178 billion this year and asks why so many experts have expressed concern at the lack of a plan to deal with the deficit.

12.07 Brown says all countries face similar problems and that he has published a deficit reduction plan - does Cameron now support 50p income tax and NI increases?

Continue reading "David Cameron uses humour to good effect at a lively PMQs" »

Posted at 11:28 in PMQs | | Comments (73)

Cameron is not for turning on marriage tax breaks

A few observations on the party's family policy before I get to the small problem that Cameron must address:

  1. Family breakdown is not just a private matter but one of Britain's biggest social problems.  Governments can't and shouldn't stop unhappy relationships ending but more can be done to help relationships work.  Research for the Centre for Social Justice found that if you are not brought up in a two-parent family you are: 75% more likely to fail at school; 70% more likely to be a drug addict; 50% more likely to have an alcohol problem; 40% more likely to have serious debt problems; and 35% more likely to experience unemployment/welfare dependency. That makes the family an issue for taxpayers.
  2. Tackling family breakdown will be a generational and multi-pronged effort.  Conservatives aren't one club golfers when it comes to family policy.  Cameron's frontbench have outlined measures to end the couple penalty in the benefits system; provide more health visitors for new parents; invest in relationship education services; reconnect grandparents with children; consider a cooling off period in divorce proceedings; and so on.
  3. There will be a recognition of marriage in the tax system if the Conservatives win the General Election. On Monday Cameron used the word "definitely" for the "next Parliament".
  4. A recognition of marriage in the tax system can vary widely in cost. A full transferable tax allowance for all married couples (including civil partners) would cost over £3bn but a transferable tax allowance for married couples with children under three years old would cost just £600m. That would also fit with one of Cameron's preferred themes - intervention in the earliest years.
  5. Governments have always used the tax system to recognise positive aspirations.  Governments recognise saving, learning and starting up a business, for example, because they build a stronger nation. Most young people still aspire to marriage and given the social benefits of marriage it makes sense to recognise that aspiration too.
  6. Britain is unusual in not having a recognition of marriage in the tax system. David Willetts has pointed out that only Mexico and Turkey are as indifferent to marriage as our country.
  7. The policy is hugely popular with the Tory grassroots and the influential Daily Mail.  A plurality of the public support it in most polls. And don't assume that single parents, for example, oppose a pro-marriage family.  I've never met a lone parent who wanted the same demanding lifestyle for their own children.

The outstanding problem is the opposition to the policy of a very few key advisers to David Cameron.  Danny Finkelstein reports today that one "Cameron ally" regards the marriage tax break as “crazy, retro and instrumentalist”. Danny writes that George Osborne holds a "detached scepticism" towards the policy (but does not oppose it). Cameron, who has believed in the policy from day one of his leadership bid (and probably long before), must lay down the law with these advisers; insist that the pledge will be honoured; and that noises off will not be tolerated.  It may just be that this week's kerfuffle will solidify a policy that has been unsettled for too long.

Tim Montgomerie

Posted at 08:57 in Family and relationships, Tax and spending | | Comments (59)

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