Moray
2005 Results:
SNP: 14196 (36.6%)
Conservative: 8520 (22%)
Labour: 7919 (20.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 7460 (19.2%)
Other: 698 (1.8%)
Majority: 5676 (14.6%)
Boundary changes prior to 2005 electionEM631.
2001 Result
Conservative: 7677 (23.1%)
Labour: 8332 (25.1%)
Liberal Democrat: 5224 (15.7%)
SNP: 10076 (30.3%)
UKIP: 291 (0.9%)
Other: 1623 (4.9%)
Majority: 1744 (5.2%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 10963 (27.6%)
Labour: 7886 (19.8%)
Liberal Democrat: 3548 (8.9%)
SNP: 16529 (41.6%)
Referendum: 840 (2.1%)
Majority: 5566 (14%)
No Boundary Changes
Current MP: Angus Robertson (SNP) (more information at They work for you)
Candidates:
Douglas Ross (Conservative)
Stuart MacLennan (Labour) Educated at Edinburgh University. Law student at Glasgow graduate school of law.
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 86940
Male: 50%
Female: 50%
Under 18: 23.8%
Over 60: 21.5%
Born outside UK: 3.7%
White: 99.1%
Asian: 0.3%
Mixed: 0.2%
Other: 0.3%
Christian: 63.7%
Full time students: 0%
Graduates 16-74: 17.9%
No Qualifications 16-74: 31.5%
Owner-Occupied: 63.3%
Social Housing: 22.1% (Council: 18.3%, Housing Ass.: 3.8%)
Privately Rented: 10.7%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 5.5%
I think the real breakthrough the Tories have had this year is not just the consistent 40+, it’s the gains in the north west and Yorkshire.
That didn’t happen last year (South Ribble being a strong exception), even with the 900 gains. Impressive though those were in 2007, they tended to be in the smaller authorities where all the seats were up. It still didn’t point to an overall majority last year.
Moray likely to be SNP held given their strength at the moment. There was a time recently where Labour looked mildly credible here, and the Tories probably too far behind here.
My prediction for this seat;
SNP 19000
Cons 11000
Labour 6500
Lib Dem 5000
Others 1500
I’d still say the SNP will hold this with a majority in the 5000 region.
Angus Robertson MP has been on the receiving end of some bad publicity regarding what he has claimed on expenses.
Featured on BBC News Scotland: a visit to IKEA by a BBC reporter reported that the stuff he had bought for his second home in london for £4k could have been picked up at IKEA for £300. He charged up a corkscrew for £40. Constituents interviewed in Elgin not amused. The usually loquacious Mr Robertson was unavailable for interview.
In the Telegraph: “Our investigation has also found that Angus Robertson, the SNP leader at Westminster, billed the taxpayer more than £80,000 for his second home, including £400 for a home cinema system.
However, Mr Salmond insisted that property speculation lay “at the heart” of the controversy and pointed out he had never owned a property in London.
Despite Mr Robertson owning a £227,500 second home in the capital, the First Minister said he thought this practice “dangerous”. ”
Moray is socially conservative and has a low wage economy. This kind of activity is likely to be noticed.
“I’d still say the SNP will hold this with a majority in the 5000 region.”
Now its more likely to be 2000.
The result for the Euros in Moray:
SNP 6960 (36.3%)
Con 4078 (21.3%)
Lab 1760 (9.2%)
Lib 1744 (9.1%)
UKIP 1532 (8.0%)
Greens 1252 (6.5%)
BNP 523 (2.7%)
Others 1200 (6.3%)
The council boundaries are the same as that of the constituency.
High vote for the UKIP here….added together witht he Conservatives (as they are generally the same voter) it becomes a lot more competitive.
The trick here is to convince people that the Conservatives *can* win. In so many areas natural Tories are swayed by the ‘Scotland is a no hope area for the Conservatives’ or ‘There are no Tories in Scotland’ nonsence…..if people believe that there is a chance, I think they will be much more likely to get that momentum going.
Also the local party needs to go big on the sitting MP’s expenses
Those in who pick a party label and ignore the candidate may overlook the expenses issue. If offended by the expenses, they are more likely to not vote than transfer their allegiance to another party which has only half the effect on the majority.
The Anyone-but-the Tories tendency are the biggest force in Scottish politics and started to grow in this part of Scotland in the 1960’s when the then MP for this constituency was a party loyalist first and foremost and not the sharpest knife in the drawer.
Those who are impressed by the efforts of the MSP to raise the profile of rural and fishing issues may also vote on a party ticket. Maybe these two factors will compensate for the expenses problem, and there is a sizeable majority to lose.
On the other hand, ignoring the problem won’t make it go away. There had better be a justification or show of contrition that will encourage those who want to vote for the sitting MP’s party to go to the polling station rather than stay at home and hold their noses while they put their mark against the candidate’s name.
Maybe a reduced turnout will be the most interesting part of the results.
SNP hold does seem the most probable outcome; hold between 2000-5000 certainly seems credible.
The MP may however survive and remain uneffected in any great way from the expenses scandal- then he ought to be able to motivate his core vote. The majority then will be higher than 2000.