Norwich North
163
Notional 2005 Results:
Labour: 19133 (47.5%)
Conservative: 12437 (30.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 6361 (15.8%)
Other: 2339 (5.8%)
Majority: 6696 (16.6%)
Actual 2005 result
Conservative: 15638 (33.2%)
Labour: 21097 (44.9%)
Liberal Democrat: 7616 (16.2%)
Green: 1252 (2.7%)
UKIP: 1122 (2.4%)
Other: 308 (0.7%)
Majority: 5459 (11.6%)
2001 Result
Conservative: 15761 (34.6%)
Labour: 21624 (47.4%)
Liberal Democrat: 6750 (14.8%)
UKIP: 471 (1%)
Green: 797 (1.7%)
Other: 211 (0.5%)
Majority: 5863 (12.9%)
1997 Result
Conservative: 17876 (32.5%)
Labour: 27346 (49.7%)
Liberal Democrat: 6951 (12.6%)
Referendum: 1777 (3.2%)
Other: 1107 (2%)
Majority: 9470 (17.2%)
Boundary changes:
Profile:
Current MP: Chloe Smith (Conservative) Born 1982, Ashford. Educated at the University of York. Former aide to Gillian Shephard and Bernard Jenkin, proir to her election worked in professional services. First elected as MP for Norwich North 2009 by-election.
Candidates:
2001 Census Demographics
Total 2001 Population: 83507
Male: 48.8%
Female: 51.2%
Under 18: 20.4%
Over 60: 24%
Born outside UK: 3.5%
White: 98.3%
Black: 0.2%
Asian: 0.5%
Mixed: 0.7%
Other: 0.4%
Christian: 69.2%
Full time students: 2.2%
Graduates 16-74: 12.4%
No Qualifications 16-74: 33.1%
Owner-Occupied: 69.2%
Social Housing: 21.4% (Council: 16.5%, Housing Ass.: 4.9%)
Privately Rented: 6.9%
Homes without central heating and/or private bathroom: 7.1%
2009 By-election
The by-election was held on the 23rd July 2009, following the resignation of the former MP Ian Gibson. Gibson announced his immediate resignation from Parliament on the 5th June 2009, having been banned from standing as a Labour candidate at the next election after being criticised in the expenses row. The by-election was won by the Conservatives with a 16.5% swing from Labour, the second Conservative by-election gain of the Parliament. The Labour candidate, Chris Ostrowski, was hospitalised with Swine Flu during the campaign, and was represented by his wife at the election count.
By-election result
Chloe Smith (Conservative): 13591 (39.5%)
Chris Ostrowski (Labour): 6243 (18.2%)
April Pond (Liberal Democrat): 4803 (14.0%)
Glenn Tingle (UKIP): 4068 (11.8%)
Rupert Read (Green): 3350 (9.7%)
Craig Murray (Honest Man): 953 (2.8%)
Robert West (BNP): 941 (2.7%)
Bill Holden (Independent): 166 (0.5%)
Howling Laud (Loony): 144 (0.4%)
Anne Fryatt (NOTA): 59 (0.2%)
Thomas Burridge (Libertarian): 36 (0.1%)
Peter Baggs (Independent): 23 (0.1%)
Majority: 7348 (21.4%)
By election Candidates
Peter Baggs (Independent) Plastering contractor
Thomas Burridge (Libertarian) born 1991, Kings Lynn. Educated at Litcham High School.
Bill Holden (Independent) Contested Norwich North 2005 as an independent.
Alan Hope (Offical Monster Raving Loony) born Mytchett. Publican. Leader of the Monster Raving Loony Party since 1999. Contested Teignbridge 1983, 1987, 1992, Aldershot 1997, Eddisbury by-election 1999, Kensington and Chelsea by-election 1999, Brent East by-election 2003, Hartlepool by-election 2004, Aldershot 2005, Blaenau Gwent by-election 2006, Sedgefield by-election 2007.
Craig Murray (Put an Honest Man Into Parliament) born 1958, West Runton. Educated at Paston School and Dundee University. Former civil servant, he served as British Ambassador to Uzbekistan from 2002 to 2004. He was recalled in 2003 over disciplinary charges including exchanging visas for sex, but was later cleared of all charges. He was later quoted by the press as saying that MI6 utilised Uzbek intelligence data that had been gained by torture. It was claimed that Murray had lost the confidence of his colleages, and he resigned from the civil service. He has subsequently campaigned against torture and written several books. Contested Blackburn as an independent 2005.
Chris Ostrowski. (Labour) Educated at University of East Anglia in Norwich. Works in retail and e-commerce. Contested East of England in 2009 European elections.
April Pond (Liberal Democrat) born 1962, Mulbarton. Educated at Norwich High School. Self employed retailer. Former Norwich councillor. Had previously been selected as PPC for the neighbouring Broadland seat.
Rupert Read (Green) Reader in Philosophy at East Anglia University. Norwich councillor. Contested Eastern region in 2009 European elections.
Chloe Smith (Conservative) Educated at the University of York. Former aide to Gillian Shephard and Bernard Jenkin, now working in professional services.
Glenn Tingle (UKIP)
Robert West (BNP) Former lecturer who has set up his own church in Holbeach. Former South Holland District councillor, elected as a Conservative but defected to the BNP in 2006. Contested East Midlands region 2009 European elections.
Anne Fryatt (NOTA)
On the Facebook Save General Election Night page, this seat has appeared in the list of Friday counts, which isn’t a surprise because the by-election was delayed until the Friday morning.
What’s interesting is that Norwich South appears in the Thursday night list, which would suggest that it is not Norwich council which objects to Thursday night counting but Broadland council, so we may get one of the Norwich seats on the night and the other one the next day.
2010
Conservative: 18500
Labour: 16000
Liberal Democrat: 5000
Others: 2500
Majority: 2500
Con Gain from Lab
That may be correct, and the true underlying position is that Labour has a lot of potential support here.
But, as most likely, given the by-election result, and also that this is a seat the Tories would need to take anyway, I think I’d go for a larger majority of about double that.
A 2500 majority would still represent a swing of over 10% from Lab to Con, 5000 would be more like a 15% swing.
Maybe so, but the ripple effect from a by-election….
I just can’t see Labour getting as close as 2,500 here.
Maybe 5,000 is a bit high though, so split the difference perhaps.
If we use Rallings & Thrasher’s notional figures for this seat and we use the % difference from the by-election, the ‘notional’ results for Norwich North are as follows:-
Con = 36.29%
Lab = 20.41%
LibDem = 13.84%
UKIP = 11.80%
Green = 7.08%
BNP = 2.74%
Others = 4.12%
Con Maj = 16.38%
On the subject of Friday election counting raised by Andy above, I read an article in the last few weeks (I think it was over on Pb.com) which explained that the main driving force behind the trend towards Friday counting is not so much saving money, but complications to do with the verification of postal votes. Because people are allowed to hand in postal ballots at a polling station on the day of the election there are now always a substantial number of postal ballots which the relevant staff do not have the opportunity to verify before the close of poll. It is this substantial amount of extra work to be done after the close of poll which is creating a situation where it is felt there is a need postpone counting until the following morning.
The solution would appear to be obvious: don’t allow people to hand in postal ballots on polling day. If your vote isn’t posted in sufficient time to arrive before polling day then it should not count. It should not be too difficult a task to perform really. I’ve never been much of a fan of postal voting on demand anyway. Only those with a damn good reason why they can’t attend a polling station should get a postal vote.
I fully agree, Kieran. What on earth is the point of having a postal vote if you’re going to go down to the polling station anyway?
And besides, even if the practice were allowed to continue, are we REALLY saying that thousands of people in each constituency are doing this? At most its only going to be a handful anyway. Certainly not enough to justify delaying the count by 24 hours.
The real reason is just laziness on the part of local authorities.
The article is here:
http://politicalbetting.blogspot.com/2009/09/spoilt-ballots-friday-count-debate.html
It explains the situation pretty well.
The above article woud suggest that the implications of the rules which govern postal voting just weren’t thought through properly.