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Eocene El Niño: evidence for robust tropical dynamics in the "hothouse"

Science. 2003 Feb 7;299(5608):877-81. doi: 10.1126/science.1078766.

Abstract

Much uncertainty surrounds the interactions between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and long-term global change. Past periods of extreme global warmth, exemplified by the Eocene (55 to 35 million years ago), provide a good testing ground for theories for this interaction. Here, we compare Eocene coupled climate model simulations with annually resolved variability records preserved in lake sediments. The simulations show Pacific deep-ocean and high-latitude surface warming of approximately 10 degrees C but little change in the tropical thermocline structure, atmosphere-ocean dynamics, and ENSO, in agreement with proxies. This result contrasts with theories linking past and future "hothouse" climates with a shift toward a permanent El Niño-like state.