Macroeconomics Commons^™

The Impact Of Fiscal Policy On Macroeconomic Conditions In Pakistan: Insights From A Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis, Sarnaila Sharif, Saima Nawaz

Business Review

This article explores the relationship between fiscal policy and macroeconomic conditions in Pakistan using a robust Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model. Since fiscal shock has the tendency to put a constraint on the future path of government spending and taxes, as the intertemporal budget constraint holds. This element has been missed in most of the VAR studies. This study extends Structural Framework by incorporating the dynamic nature of public debt in analyzing fiscal policy shocks. Our investigation focuses on estimating the responses of output, inflation, and debt interest payments to changes in government spending and taxes, while keeping track of …

Examining The Aggregate Economic Impacts Of Criminal Record Expungement In Marion County, Indiana, Zane Callison

Lux et Fides: A Journal for Undergraduate Christian Scholars

This article investigates the individual economic effects of criminal record expungement identified in a previous article as they appear in the aggregate, particularly rates of unemployment and wages. As interest around the effects of overincarceration increases, criminal record expungement offers a possible solution to the economic woes faced by justice-involved individuals. To that end, this article examines unemployment rates and per capita personal income in Marion County, Indiana, where implementation of the state of Indiana’s criminal record expungement statute has been exceptionally effective. After an analysis, we find that criminal record expungement bears only a light or unclear causal relationship …

Investment Strategies Of Gcc Sovereign Wealth Funds: Aligning National Development And Geopolitical Goals, Roy Conners

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis examines how Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) prioritize and implement investment strategies in the context of national development and geopolitical dynamics. Using a qualitative case study approach, it analyzes the assets, key industries, leadership, and historical evolution of major GCC SWFs (ADIA, Mubadala, ADQ, QIA, and PIF) based on publicly made available information.

The findings show that GCC SWFs prioritize investments in strategic sectors, geographical destinations, and the private sector. These investments align closely with their respective national development plans, such as 'We the UAE 2031', Qatar National Vision 2030, and Saudi Arabia’s …

Eco 12 Macroeconomics Syllabus, Karen David Prof.

Open Educational Resources

This the syllabus for the RECO 12 Macroeconomics course taught by Prof. David. It is a ZTC course using an OpenStax OER textbook revised by the professor.

Capital Flow And Bank Lending Channels In A Small Open Economy: Evidence From Indonesia, Advis Budiman, Solikin M. Juhro, Sugiharso Safuan

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This paper investigates the implication of macro-financial linkages to explain the interaction of the financial and business cycles as the primary contributor to understanding the fluctuations in the Indonesian economy. It attempts to capture the interaction of the global financial and domestic business cycles through portfolio flow by incorporating investor behavior through a preference for domestic asset classes. Furthermore, due to information asymmetries between lenders and borrowers, we include the monitoring cost to explain the transaction cost in the credit market as a factor that drives macroeconomic fluctuations. Our findings demonstrate how financial imperfections can amplify the impact of global …

Digital Currencies And Macroeconomic Performance: A Global Perspective, Tirimisiyu F. Oloko, Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna, Idris A. Adediran

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

In this study, we explore the IS-LM-BP framework in analysing the effect of digital currencies on macroeconomic performance from a global perspective. We augment the global macroeconomic dataset by Mohaddes and Raissi (2020) with digital currencies, and analyse the relationship between 2010Q1 and 2019Q4. Overall, we find digital currencies to have significantly positive short-run and no long-run impact on global output, inflation rate, interest rate, and equity stock return. Our results suggest that digital currencies have enhanced global macroeconomic performance, on average. Thus, we recommend that appropriate regulations, rather than an outright ban on digital currencies, should be implemented.

Tax Preferences: A Numerical Exercise, Isaac Babatunde Olatunji

Major Papers

Tax preference focuses on individuals' perception and choice regarding specific tax policies or structure. It examines the extent to which individuals favor certain tax provisions, rates, or exemptions over others. Scholars and researchers have extensively examined tax preference from various perspectives. I performed a numerical exercise on one agent model and two agent model where agents have preferences over consumption, labor supply and tax preferences (dislike of the labor income tax). Under the one agent model there exist one household utility maximization problem and under the two agent model there exist two households with low productive ability and high productive …

Navigating Generosity: A Comparative Analysis Of Charitable Donations Around The Great Recession Of 2008, Micah Blomberg

Economics Student Theses and Capstone Projects

This paper studies donations to non-profit organizations in the US and how they reacted to The Great Recession of 2008. I find statistically significant drop-offs in multiple donative subcategories, including religion, education, human services, public society benefits, and arts, culture, and humanities, making up over 50% of total donations. Donation levels after the 2008 crash tend to be slightly downward sticky, meaning the rate of increase is larger after the treatment effect. These increased rates of return allow for market correction post-recession but still reveal a deadweight loss when comparing trends in OLS betas before and after the recession, meaning …

How Did The Tax Cuts And Jobs Act Of 2017 Effect Small Businesses?, Jackson Pittman

Accounting Undergraduate Honors Theses

The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 marked a significant overhaul of the United States tax system, promising to stimulate economic growth and enhance the competitiveness of American businesses. Amidst its broad-reaching reforms, the TCJA introduced several provisions directly impacting small businesses, aiming to alleviate their tax burdens and foster entrepreneurial activity. This thesis endeavors to evaluate the multifaceted effects of the TCJA on small businesses, examining its implications for their financial performance, investment behavior, and overall economic contribution.

Preliminary findings suggest that the TCJA has produced a generally positive result for small businesses. On one hand, reduced …

What Impact Did The Tcja Tax Cuts Have On The Manufacturing Sector?, Ryan Parker

Accounting Undergraduate Honors Theses

Throughout this paper I will examine positive effects the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 had on the manufacturing sector. To do this I begin by outlining the key provisions in the TCJA that directly benefit the manufacturing sector. This includes the corporate tax rate reduction from 35 percent to 21 percent, the changes to the repatriation tax for foreign funds, and the treatment for capital assets. I then analyze key metrics including pre-tax income, income tax provision, dividends, changes in retained earnings, and spending on property plant and equipment. I will show the interactions between the increase in …

Economic Anomalies Following The Handover Of Hong Kong, Nathan Martin

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

This paper seeks to examine and provide a possible explanation for economic anomalies in Hong Kong following its handover to China. Hong Kong was on a 99-year lease to the United Kingdom from China before being handed back over July 1^st, 1997. Due to the “one country, two systems” policy espoused in the handover agreement that was to be implemented for fifty years, this event marks a rare natural experiment of a peaceful regime change without a significant change in governance. This paper seeks to understand the impact of the act of regime change on selected key macroeconomic …

Essays On Trade Policy, Ward Reesman

All Dissertations

This dissertation consists of two essays on international trade and trade policy, focusing on a quantitative evaluation of the causes and consequences of trade barriers and economic integration. In the first essay, I examine the role of a widely-used discriminatory trade barrier in shaping dynamic trade patterns of exporters across a range of affected and unaffected export markets. In the next chapter, I explore the heterogeneous economic determinants impacting the formation of economic integration agreements among countries, paying specific attention to the role of bilateral migration flows.

The first chapter estimates the dynamic trade effects of temporary trade barriers (TTBs), …

Partisan Perspectives On Inflation: Exploring Bias In Economic Expectations, Anna Durall

Economics Honors Projects

Inflation expectations are important determinants of future inflation and individual consumer behavior. Recent attention has been devoted to individual-level heterogeneity in inflation expectations. I consider political partisanship as a source of heterogeneity and question whether expectations are biased by partisanship. I find that they are, i.e., that individuals from the president's political party expect lower inflation relative to members of the opposing party (this difference is statistically insignificant during the Bush presidency), and that this result cannot be explained by additional sources of heterogeneity. I also examine whether belonging to the president's political party affects the rationality of expectations and …

Capitalism In Europe Vs. Latin America, Brandy Mace, Lucas E. Mainhart, Caleb Edwards, Dayton Lamb, Jesus Herrera-Herrera

ATU Research Symposium

Focusing on the years 1995 to 2023, what are the universal traits of capitalism versus the more varying or flexible traits, as demonstrated by comparing European and Latin American practices of capitalism. For the country comparisons, researchers have agreed on 3 common variables to evaluate the capitalist practices of a Latin American country with a European one. These shared variables are 1) The power of the country's currency, 2) The informal versus formal employment of the labor force, as well as unemployment rate, and 3) The income gap between the rich and poor. Each researcher will also include 1-3 additional …

Evaluating Macro-Policy Attitudes About Abortion In The United States, Christopher Olds, Miriam Guadalupe Benavides-Ortega, Madison May Albers, Rocio Figueroa-Castro

SACAD: John Heinrichs Scholarly and Creative Activity Days

Prior research on public opinion demonstrates attitudes about major issues often shift/move together. In other words, public support for government involvement in domestic affairs across multiple policy areas can be indicative of the general policy sentiment or public mood at any given point in time. In exploring specific issue areas in isolation, researchers can assess whether change in opinion on an issue area is significantly linked to fluctuations in views about macroeconomic conditions. The current research project will contrast quarterly public support for government involvement in the issue area of abortion through vector autoregression time series techniques examining whether prior …

Estimating The Stability Of Okun's Law, Xinrui (Crystal) Wang, Samuel Schreyer

SACAD: John Heinrichs Scholarly and Creative Activity Days

This study focuses on employing the gap version of Okun's Law, conducting regression analysis between the output gap and the unemployment gap to assess their effectiveness and long-term stability, and also estimates the significant relationship between the output gap and the unemployment gap. This study also compares the output gap dynamics during economic contractions and expansions.

Trade Liberalization With Brics: A Cge Model Of Egypt, Kareem Ashraf

Theses and Dissertations

This paper presents an ex-ante impact assessment of a hypothetical FTA between Egypt and the BRICS from an Egyptian economy-wide and sectorial perspectives, with a granular look into manufacturing. The chosen methodology is a static SAM-based Computable General Equilibrium model calibrated to Egypt’s 2018-2019 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). With respect to existing literature, the paper uniquely stands in considering an Egypt-BRICS FTA with a granular assessment of manufacturing subsectors and in running a simulation of Egypt’s trade liberalization with the wider BRICS alliance, including the accession of Saudi Arabia, UAE, Ethiopia, and Iran, which joined the bloc along with Egypt …

Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Inflation Expectations In India? Evidences From Surveys Of Household And Professional Forecasters, Irfan Ali Kc

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study examines whether inflation targeting (IT) anchors household and professional forecasters expectations in India. It investigates whether food and non-food inflation affect anchoring inflation expectations differently. Primarily, the results indicate significant decreases in the level and variability of expectations. Further, it provides evidence of successful anchoring for professional forecasters' and household expectations. However, it also found food inflation assist anchoring of expectations, while the non-food inflation doesn't. The results suggest the central bank to emphasize more on non-food inflation for better anchoring prospects. Additionally, the study identifies food inflation as the primary contributor to headline inflation variability.

Spillover Effects Of Capital Controls: A Critical Review And New Agenda For The Future Directions, Biswajit Panigrahi, K.P Prabheesh

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study tries to undertake a critical review of the spillover effects of capital controls and their welfare implications. We provide a synthesis of the literature on both the theoretical and empirical literature on the spillover effects of capital controls. Furthermore, the role of similar economies (geographical region, and economic characteristics), direction-specific capital controls, global financial crisis (GFC), asset-specific capital controls and the compositional effect of capital flows are discussed to explore the degree and extent of spillover effects of capital controls policy. Similarly, the welfare implications of capital controls depend on the policy motive behind the imposition of capital …

Reinvigorating Gva Nowcasting In The Post-Pandemic Period: A Case Study For India, Kaustubh Na, Soumya Suvra Bhadury, Saurabh Ghosh

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

We reinvigorate nowcasting models considering structural changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. It emphasizes the need to understand the heterogeneous impact of shocks on agriculture, industry, and services sectors in an emerging market economy (e.g., India). Our findings advocate a bottom-up approach that tracks sectors separately rather than a headline number. Our results suggest including digital-activity index and supply-side disruption index in the post-pandemic period could improve nowcast performance. Expectation-Maximization (E-M) algorithm is used to combine data series based on their availability. Among bridging methods, the averaging method is preferred due to its simplicity and flexibility.