Golden Globes 2023 winner predictions: EW picks who should and will win

After a starless, non-televised ceremony in 2022 as the Hollywood Foreign Press Association tried to climb its way out of scandal, the Golden Globes are (seemingly) back. Movies including The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once, and TV series The White Lotus and Abbott Elementary all stand to win big.

But the HFPA can sometimes be an unpredictable bunch — and the membership has changed over the past year or so as the group has committed to increasing and diversifying itself. So who will win is different from who should win in several cases.

Below, see our predictions for the winners of the 2023 Golden Globes, which air Tuesday at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT on NBC.

FILM

Best Motion Picture — Drama

Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick

Should win: Tár.
Will win: The Fabelmans. Steven Spielberg's family drama should confirm its early frontrunner status with a victory in this major race. But look for Top Gun: Maverick to start catching up once the guild award season starts in earnest. —Dave Karger

Best Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy

Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Triangle of Sadness

Should win: The Banshees of Inisherin.
Will win: Everything Everywhere All at Once. The trippy action-comedy isn't a typical Globe-winning film, but a victory here will help it rise to the top of the overall list of contenders alongside The Fabelmans and Top Gun: Maverick. —DK

Best Director for a Motion Picture

James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Baz Luhrmann, Elvis
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans

Should and will win: Steven Spielberg. It's been over 20 years since his last competitive Globe win (in 1999 for Saving Private Ryan). Making his most personal film to date should change that. —DK

Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Drama

Cate Blanchett, Tár
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans

Should and will win: Cate Blanchett. I'm not sure how anyone in any voting body can watch Blanchett's performance as Lydia Tár and not think she deserves all the awards. This is even more of a lock considering Michelle Yeoh is in the comedy category. —DK

Best Actor in a Motion Picture — Drama

Austin Butler, Elvis
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Hugh Jackman, The Son
Bill Nighy, Living
Jeremy Pope, The Inspection

Should and will win: Austin Butler. This one is a toss-up between Butler and Brendan Fraser. But given the fact that Fraser has said he won't attend the ceremony and the HFPA's attraction to young actors playing musical icons (see: Rami Malek and Taron Egerton), I'm leaning toward Butler. —DK

Best Actress in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy

Lesley Manville, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Margot Robbie, Babylon
Anya Taylor-Joy, The Menu
Emma Thompson, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once

Should and will win: Michelle Yeoh. She's a veteran, she's beloved, and she deserves this award simply for playing so many different versions of her character in Everything Everywhere All at Once. And brilliantly at that. —DK

Best Actor in a Motion Picture — Musical or Comedy

Diego Calva, Babylon
Daniel Craig, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Adam Driver, White Noise
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ralph Fiennes, The Menu

Should and will win: Colin Farrell. The talented charmer won this very award 14 years ago for another Martin McDonagh dark comedy (In Bruges). They've both topped themselves with Banshees so this win is a given. —DK

Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture

Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Carey Mulligan, She Said

Should and will win: Jamie Lee Curtis. She's Hollywood royalty, respected by all, and tons of fun when making speeches. Although she's never had an Oscar nomination (yet), this is her eighth Globe nod, and I'd say a third win seems inevitable. —DK

Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture

Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse

Should win: Brendan Gleeson.
Will win: Ke Huy Quan. The year's most heartwarming comeback kid has already won prizes from the Gotham Awards and the New York Film Critics Circle for his sympathetic turn in Everything Everywhere All at Once. Now he's poised to pick up a major trophy on the West Coast. —DK

Best Screenplay for a Motion Picture

Todd Field, Tár
The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Steven Spielberg and Tony Kushner, The Fabelmans

Should and will win: Martin McDonagh: Five years ago McDonagh won this award for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. His surprisingly emotional Banshees of Inisherin should tug at the voters' heartstrings as much as it makes them laugh. —DK

TELEVISION

Best Television Series — Drama

Better Call Saul
The Crown
House of the Dragon
Ozark
Severance

Should win: Better Call Saul.
Will win: Severance. Yes, The Crown is typically a Globes favorite, but we can only assume that this new voting body will want to shake things up a bit. Severance is an industry favorite and was largely snubbed at the Emmys, so giving the Apple TV+ drama a big win seems like an easy way for the Globes to make a bold statement. —Kristen Baldwin

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series — Drama

Emma D'Arcy, House of the Dragon
Laura Linney, Ozark
Imelda Staunton, The Crown
Hilary Swank, Alaska Daily
Zendaya, Euphoria

Should and will win: Zendaya. As much as we'd love the chaos of a Hilary Swank upset, the Euphoria star is on a winning streak. —KB

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series — Drama

Jeff Bridges, The Old Man
Kevin Costner, Yellowstone
Diego Luna, Andor
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Adam Scott, Severance

Should and will win: Bob Odenkirk. It's a close race between Odenkirk and Severance's Scott, but the Saul star is beloved — and he's been passed over five times by the Emmys. Globes voters could generate some major goodwill for rewarding his career-best performance. —KB

Best Television Series — Musical or Comedy

Abbott Elementary
The Bear
Hacks
Only Murders in the Building
Wednesday

Should and will win: The Bear. The old Globes loved rewarding stylish freshman comedies, especially when they could claim right of accolade discovery on a rookie too new for Emmy eligibility. That may change with an expanded membership, but the FX-Hulu series is unquestionably the best show in its category, though the Wednesday phenomenon could be a populist spoiler. —Darren Franich

Best Performance by an Actress in a Television Series — Musical or Comedy

Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Kaley Cuoco, The Flight Attendant
Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
Jenna Ortega, Wednesday
Jean Smart, Hacks

Should Win: Quinta Brunson.
Will Win: Jenna Ortega. Abbott Elementary debuted just a week before the nominations were announced for the zombie 2022 ceremony, so creator Brunson could earn the prize if enough HFPA members have caught onto her delightful star turn. But I'm banking on Ortega and that dance. —DF

Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series — Musical or Comedy

Donald Glover, Atlanta
Bill Hader, Barry
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

Should win: Bill Hader.
Will win: Jeremy Allen White.Who is also great, though I give a slight edge to the black-hole comedy-horror of Hader's increasingly unhinged Barry performance. But White made chef-ing look tragic, triumphant, and romantic. Note: A win for either Murder Martins will indicate the new Globes votership is even goofier than before. —DF

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Musical-Comedy or Drama Television Series

Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Julia Garner, Ozark
Janelle James, Abbott Elementary
Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary

Should win: Elizabeth Debicki.
Will (and honestly, also Should): Sheryl Lee Ralph. A comedy series star hasn't won in this category since Jane Lynch took home the Globe for Glee in 2011, but Ralph is having an extended, very overdue moment — and we all want to hear her sing again. —KB

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Musical-Comedy or Drama Television Series

John Lithgow, The Old Man
Jonathan Pryce, The Crown
John Turturro, Severance
Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary
Henry Winkler, Barry

Should and will win: John Turturro. Even if Severance doesn't take the top Drama prize, Turturro's heartwarming/breaking turn as the fussy-funny Irv cannot be denied. —KB

Best Television Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

Black Bird
Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
The Dropout
Pam & Tommy
The White Lotus

Should and will win: The White Lotus. Season 2 of the buzzy, decadent murder-mystery drama wrapped up just as voters received their ballots in the mail. But it's not just recency bias: Lotus is simply the best series on the ballot, followed by the underrated Black Bird. —KB

Best Performance by an Actor in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

Taron Egerton, Black Bird
Colin Firth, The Staircase
Andrew Garfield, Under the Banner of Heaven
Evan Peters, Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Sebastian Stan, Pam & Tommy

Should win: Colin Firth.
Will win: Taron Egerton. Okay but now, besides Kristen, has anyone seen Black Bird? I'm being cruel to be kind — obscurity is sometimes a virtue in Globesland. You gotta pick one out-there streaming pick with this awards show, and Egerton's mine. —DF

Best Performance by an Actress in a Limited Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

Jessica Chastain, George & Tammy
Julia Garner, Inventing Anna
Lily James, Pam & Tommy
Julia Roberts, Gaslit
Amanda Seyfried, The Dropout

Should win: Lily James.
Will win: Amanda Seyfried. In the "who did the best celebrity impression" category, I'd put James' almost supernatural summoning of Pamela Anderson above Seyfried's Elizabeth Holmes pastiche. But you know who disagrees with me? Literally every awards-giving body so far. —DF

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Limited Series, Anthology Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus
Claire Danes, Fleishman Is in Trouble
Daisy Edgar-Jones, Under the Banner of Heaven
Niecy Nash, Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Aubrey Plaza, The White Lotus

Should and will win: Jennifer Coolidge.I'd call this category the biggest toss-up and the most coherent smattering of critical favorites and mainstream sensations, and I wonder if four-time winner Danes will triumph if enough voters watch all of Fleishman. I think Coolidge benefits the most from the sensation of White Lotus season 2, though, especially since the finale gave her character one big moment after another. —DF

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Limited Series, Anthology Series or Motion Picture Made for Television

F. Murray Abraham, The White Lotus
Domhnall Gleeson, The Patient
Paul Walter Hauser, Black Bird
Richard Jenkins, Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Seth Rogen, Pam & Tommy

Should and will win: Domhnall Gleeson.I might be missing a Dahmer sweep here, but in the clash of hot-serial-killer shows, I think Gleeson's Patient simmer will be a virtue. —DF

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