The 2024 United States presidential election in Virginia is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Virginia voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Virginia has 13 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.
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The last Republican to win this state's electoral votes was fellow Southerner George W. Bush in 2004, and the last Republican to do so by double digits was the elder Bush in 1988. Democratic strength in Virginia is primarily centered by the fast-growing Northern Virginia, which includes some of Washington, DC's largest suburbs, followed by the downstate regions of Hampton Roads and Greater Richmond. In 2020, Joe Biden won the state by just over 10 points, becoming the first presidential Democrat to do so by double digits since landslide victor FDR in 1944.
Despite its Democratic lean at the federal level, Virginia could be considered a secondary battleground state and may be targeted by the GOP in 2024, mainly due to the 2021 state elections where Republicans won every statewide office being contested.[1][2] Nonetheless, Virginia is generally expected to remain a blue state this cycle.[3]
Incumbent President Biden is running for reelection to a second term.[4]
Primary elections
Republican primary
The Virginia Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 440,416 | 62.99% | 39 | 3 | 42 |
| Nikki Haley | 244,586 | 34.98% | 6 | 6 | |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 7,494 | 1.07% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 3,384 | 0.48% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 2,503 | 0.36% | |||
| Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) | 853 | 0.12% | |||
| Total: | 699,236 | 100.00% | 45 | 3 | 48 |
| Source: [5] | |||||
Democratic primary
The Virginia Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 317,329 | 88.51% | 99 | 99 | |
| Marianne Williamson | 28,599 | 7.98% | 0 | 0 | |
| Dean Phillips | 12,586 | 3.51% | 0 | 0 | |
| Total: | 358,514 | 100.00% | 99 | 19 | 118 |
| Source: [6] | |||||
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[7] | Solid D | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[8] | Likely D | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] | Likely D | June 29, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[10] | Likely D | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[11] | Likely D | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[12] | Lean D | January 14, 2024 |
Polling
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Commonwealth University | December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024 | 812 (A) | ± 5.4% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Mason-Dixon | December 15–19, 2023 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 43% | 8% |
| Roanoke College | November 12–20, 2023 | 686 (A) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,437 (RV) | – | 47% | 42% | 11% |
| Research America Inc.[A] | September 5–11, 2023 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 37% | 26% |
| Roanoke College | August 6–15, 2023 | 702 (A) | ± 4.2% | 51% | 42% | 17% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University | July 14–25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.4% | 43% | 40% | 17% |
| Roanoke College | May 14–23, 2023 | 678 (A) | ± 4.4% | 54% | 38% | 8% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 7–9, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| Roanoke College | February 12–21, 2023 | 590 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 46% | 6% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon | December 15–19, 2023 | 625 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 36% | 14% | 8% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,437 (RV) | – | 40% | 39% | 7% | 14% |
- Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Joe Manchin vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Manchin Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research/Future Majority (D) | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,437 (RV) | – | 37% | 37% | 7% | 5% | 14% |
- Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Commonwealth University | December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024 | 812 (A) | ± 5.4% | 38% | 43% | 19% |
- Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Commonwealth University | December 28, 2023 – January 13, 2024 | 812 (A) | ± 5.4% | 42% | 39% | 19% |
| Research America Inc.[B] | September 5–11, 2023 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University | July 14–25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.46% | 41% | 41% | 18% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R) | May 7–9, 2023 | 500 (LV) | – | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Roanoke College | February 12–21, 2023 | 590 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 43% | 48% | 8% |
- Joe Biden vs. Glenn Youngkin
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Glenn Youngkin Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research America Inc.[C] | September 5–11, 2023 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 34% | 29% |
| Virginia Commonwealth University | July 14–25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.46% | 37% | 44% | 19% |
| Roanoke College | February 12–21, 2023 | 590 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 39% | 55% | 6% |
See also
Notes
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Center for Leadership and Media Studies at the University of Mary Washington
References
- ^ https://www.roanoke.edu/documents/rcpoll/RCPoll%20March%202023%20Topline.pdf
- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved February 21, 2024.
- ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
- ^ "Virginia Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ "Virginia Democratic Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved March 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.