www.fgks.org   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

A temporal forecast of radiation environments for future space exploration missions

  • Proceedings of the 4th IWSRR
  • Published:
Radiation and Environmental Biophysics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The understanding of future space radiation environments is an important goal for space mission operations, design, and risk assessment. We have developed a solar cycle statistical model in which sunspot number is coupled to space-related quantities, such as the galactic cosmic radiation (GCR) deceleration potential (φ) and the mean occurrence frequency of solar particle events (SPEs). Future GCR fluxes were derived from a predictive model, in which the temporal dependence represented by φ was derived from GCR flux and ground-based Climax neutron monitor rate measurements over the last four decades. These results showed that the point dose equivalent inside a typical spacecraft in interplanetary space was influenced by solar modulation by up to a factor of three. It also has been shown that a strong relationship exists between large SPE occurrences and φ. For future space exploration missions, cumulative probabilities of SPEs at various integral fluence levels during short-period missions were defined using a database of proton fluences of past SPEs. Analytic energy spectra of SPEs at different ranks of the integral fluences for energies greater than 30 MeV were constructed over broad energy ranges extending out to GeV for the analysis of representative exposure levels at those fluences. Results will guide the design of protection systems for astronauts during future space exploration missions.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Cucinotta FA, Durante M (2006) Cancer risk from exposure to galactic cosmic rays: implications for space exploration by human beings. Lancet Oncol 7:431–435

    Article  Google Scholar 

  2. Wilson JW, Kim MY, Shinn JL, Tai H, Cucinotta FA, Badhwar GD, Badavi FF, Atwell W (1999) Solar cycle variation and application to the space radiation environment, NASA/TP-1999–209369

  3. Kim MY, Wilson JW (2000) Examination of solar cycle statistical model and new prediction of solar cycle 23, NASA/TP-2000–210536

  4. Kim MY, Wilson JW, Cucinotta FA (2004) An improved solar cycle statistical model for the projection of near future sunspot cycles, NASA/TP-2004–212070

  5. Kim MY, Wilson JW, Cucinotta FA (2006) A solar cycle statistical model for the projection of space radiation environment. Adv Space Res 37:1741–1748

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  6. Badhwar GD, O’Neill PM (1992) An improved model of GCR for space exploration missions. Nucl Tracks Radiat Meas 20:403–410

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements (NCRP) (2000) Radiation protection guidance for activities in low-Earth orbit. NCRP Report No. 132

  8. Kim MY, Cucinotta FA, Wilson JW (2006) Mean occurrence frequency and temporal risk analysis of solar particle events. Radiat Meas 41(9–10):1115–1122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Shea MA, Smart DF (1990) A summary of major proton events. Solar Phys 127:297–320

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  10. National Geophysical Data Center (NGDC) GOES Space Environment Monitor. URL: http://www.goes.ngdc.noaa.gov/data/

  11. McCracken KG, Dreschhoff GAM, Zeller EJ et al (2001) Solar cosmic ray events for the period 1561–1994 1. Identification in polar ice, 1561–1950. J Geophys Res 106(A10):21585–21598

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  12. Xapsos MA, Barth JL, Stassinopoulos et al (2000) Characterizing solar proton energy spectra for radiation effects applications. IEEE Trans Nucl Sci 47(6):2218–2223

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  13. Space Environment Center: preliminary report and forecast of solar geophysical data—The Weekly, NOAA, http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly.html

  14. Bobcock HW (1961) The topology of the Sun’s magnetic field and the 22-year cycle. Astrophys J 133(2):572–587

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  15. Badhwar GD, O’Neill PM (1994) Long-term modulation of galactic cosmic radiation and its model for space exploration. Adv Space Res 14(10):749–757

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  16. Nymmik RA (1999) Probabilistic model for fluences and peak fluxes of solar energetic particles. Radiat Meas 30:287–296

    Article  Google Scholar 

  17. Wilson JW, Badavi FF, Cucinotta FA et al (1995) HZETRN: description of a free-space ion and nucleon transport and shielding computer program. NASA TP-3495

  18. Cucinotta FA, Wilson JW, Badavi FF (1994) Extension to the BRYNTRN code to monoenergetic light ion beams. NASA TP-3472

  19. Billings MP, Yucker WR (1973) The computerized anatomical man (CAM) model, NASA CR-134043

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Wyle Laboratories, Wyle/HAC/37A, 1290 Hercules Dr., Houston, TX, 77058, USA

    Myung-Hee Y. Kim

  2. NASA Johnson Space Center, SK, 2101 NASA Parkway, Houston, TX, 77058, USA

    Francis A. Cucinotta

  3. NASA Langley Research Center, MS 188B, Hampton, VA, 23681-2199, USA

    John W. Wilson

Authors
  1. Myung-Hee Y. Kim
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Francis A. Cucinotta
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. John W. Wilson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Myung-Hee Y. Kim.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Kim, MH.Y., Cucinotta, F.A. & Wilson, J.W. A temporal forecast of radiation environments for future space exploration missions. Radiat Environ Biophys 46, 95–100 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00411-006-0080-1

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00411-006-0080-1

Keywords

Search

Navigation