Crown Prince Felipe on brink of becoming King Felipe VI

There will be no gilded horse-drawn carriages, no foreign dignitaries and no mass.

Spain's Crown Prince Felipe will become King Felipe VI on Thursday morning in a low-key ceremony defined by what it is not. Void of pomp, it won't be attended by his father, King Juan Carlos, or any other European royals.

This will be an austere coronation, designed to fit with austere times in the country. But it will mark a historical achievement: the first time that any king on the Spanish throne has passed the crown to one of his offspring since 1885.

Little more than two weeks have passed since 76-year-old King Juan Carlos announced that he would be abdicating in favour of his son. On Wednesday evening, Juan Carlos will make his move official, signing into law his abdication and bringing an end to his 39-year reign. Felipe will take over as of midnight on Wednesday.

Felipe will play to the cameras on Thursday, marking the handover in a one-hour ceremony at Spain's lower house of parliament. Clad in the navy-blue uniform of Spain's army, he will swear to safeguard the country's constitution and its laws in front of an audience of hundreds of Spanish politicians.

A military parade will cap off the occasion and Spain's new senior royal family will be driven through central Madrid's wide avenues in a covered Rolls-Royce.

They will end up at Madrid's old royal palace – now a historical ceremonial venue – where both generations of Spanish royalty will wave to the crowds from the front balcony.

The day's events have been planned carefully to match the mood in Spain, according to the royal commentator Jaime Peñafiel. "When you ask young people in Spain whether they want a monarchy or republic, they answer that they want a job."

He pointed to the many Spaniards who call themselves Juancarlistas, referring to the idea that they back Juan Carlos but not the monarchy. "Now the push is on to turn those Juan Carlistas into Felipistas."

That task is a tough one. The Spanish monarchy's popularity has sunk to record lows in recent years. In the days since Juan Carlos announced his abdication, tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets to demand a referendum on the monarchy.

Republican groups have called for a mass rally against the monarchy on Thursday, at the same time as, and only hundreds of yards from the official ceremony.

Most Spaniards are more indifferent to the monarchy than hostile, according to polls. Shops in central Madrid stock keyrings, plates and thimbles bearing the images of the new king and queen, but few Spanish flags can be seen on balconies. In cafes and bars across the capital, discussion has focused more on Spain's ailing football team than on the royal event.

The quiet coronation is a wasted opportunity to bolster the monarchy's popularity, the conservative newspaper ABC argued in a recent editorial.

"The policy of austerity has been carried out to such an extent that it has been confused with keeping a low profile, and threatens to tarnish the handover," said the traditionally pro-royal paper. "There is no similarity with the transparency, brilliance and solemnity with which other countries have celebrated their handovers, events in which they took the opportunity to present their best image to the world and get a huge payoff," the article added.

More than simply economics played into the austere ceremony, said Charles Powell, director of Spain's Elcano Royal Institute. The monarchy, restored in 1975 after a 40-year hiatus was designed as low-key institution by Juan Carlos, said Powell. "This has really always been a low-cost, value-for-money monarchy."

The fact that King Juan Carlos's grandfather died in exile and that his father never ruled, said Powell, meant that "the Spanish monarchy has always been aware of the need to justify its existence by proving useful to Spanish society".

Felipe has spent most of his last days as prince studiously working on his first speech to the nation as king, according to reports. Many, including Powell, will be listening closely for clues as to the young king's priorities. "I'm hoping he'll speak Catalan and other languages as well."

The speech is also an opportunity to reach out to first-generation Spaniards, who are traditionally indifferent to Spain's monarchy, Powell said.

About 12% of Spaniards are born outside Spain, a higher proportion than in Britain, Germany or France. These demographics likely figured in the decision to do away with the traditional mass, he added.

Ultimately, Thursday's ceremony will be another public-relations exercise in the long battle that lies ahead for Felipe VI in the battle to rejuvenate the Spanish monarchy, said Powell. "It's all part of a process of winning hearts and minds. His father did it in the 1970s, I think he can do it again."