The question is no longer whether Palestinians will starve to death in a famine, but how many will do so. Famine is imminent in northern Gaza, a coalition of UN agencies and aid groups has warned. Others say that it has already arrived: because mortality is one measure for establishing famine, it can only be declared once deaths have already mounted. According to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification, the entire population is facing high levels of acute food insecurity or worse – an unprecedented level for any area or country – with many of those in “catastrophic” need. Families are eating animal feed and grass, and drinking dirty water.
No natural disaster has occurred; this is an entirely human-made famine, resulting from Israel’s military offensive in response to the Hamas atrocities on 7 October, and the curbs on aid. Josep Borrell, the EU foreign affairs chief, has accused Israel of using starvation as a weapon of war. On Tuesday, the UN human rights office said that the restrictions on aid might amount to a war crime.
Israel says that it allows “extensive” aid to enter. It has blamed the UN for not delivering aid quickly enough, holding up relief efforts, and Hamas for stealing supplies. But the security problems now hampering distribution are the inevitable result of large-scale destruction and such severe shortages that people are seizing goods not out of need but desperation. Oxfam and others also complain that Israeli inspectors arbitrarily reject aid items, including torches and medical supplies, as being “dual use”, with the veto of a single item leading to the turning away of an entire truck. Before the war, hundreds of trucks entered each day; the cumulative effects of months of shortages means that the crisis is accelerating. Even if talks on a six-week ceasefire bear fruit, it would take weeks to scale up relief.
“Thousands of hunger-related deaths are likely baked into the trajectory already. Whether that becomes tens of thousands will depend on the actions the [US government] takes now,” wrote Jeremy Konyndyk, the president of Refugees International and a former official in the Biden administration.
Last week, Joe Biden declared that an offensive on Rafah – the key crossing, and the place where more than half the population of Gaza are taking shelter, having been told to move there by Israel – would be a “red line”. But the US president added that he would “never leave Israel”, and that “there’s no red line I’m going to cut off all weapons”. Indeed, the administration has used loopholes to expedite arms deliveries and avoid congressional scrutiny since the start of the war.
The US is trying to work around Benjamin Netanyahu, or in the hope of his departure. Democratic politicians are becoming increasingly and vocally critical of the Israeli prime minister. But conspicuous frustration won’t save Palestinians, and a floating pier won’t help many.
The US should make it clear that while it embraces Israel’s right and duty to protect its citizens, military aid is conditional on protecting civilians in Gaza. The priorities must be a ceasefire and the release of hostages, and the facilitation of a huge quantity of aid, and the traffic of commercial goods, including through the opening of more crossings. Many lives will be lost, whatever happens. But many more could still, and must, be saved.