Will Pass

The House has enough votes to pass CIR now.

By REBECCA KAPLAN 11/5/13/ CBS NEWS/ November 5, 2013, 2:15 PM Obama: House has
votes to pass immigration reform http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57610933/obama-
house-has-votes-to-pass-immigration-reform/ TJN

In a meeting with business leaders to discuss immigration reform, President Obama predicted
that there are enough votes in the House to pass the contentious issue.
"Although right now there's been some resistance from House Republicans, what's been
encouraging is that there are a number of House Republicans who have said we think this is
the right thing to do as well," Mr. Obama said Tuesday at the White House. "It's my estimation
that we actually have the votes to get comprehensive immigration reform done in the House
right now. The politics are challenging for [Speaker Boehner] and others, and we want to make
it as easy for them as possible. This is not an issue where we're looking for a political win, this is
one where we're looking for a substantive win for the U.S. economy and the American people
and the businesses that are represented here."
reduction and growth for the economy.


CIR will pass, bipartisan effort and pressure on Republicans.
BY ED O'KEEFE 11/7/13 November 7 at 12:01 am New push for immigration reform will target
9 House Republicans Ed O'Keefe covers Congress and politics for the Washington Post. He
previously covered the 2008 and 2012 campaigns and reported on federal agencies and federal
employees as author of The Federal Eye blog. Follow Ed on Twitter.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/11/07/new-push-for-
immigration-reform-will-target-9-house-republicans/ TJN

With a year to go until the midterm elections, immigration reform advocates hoping to jump-
start debate on Capitol Hill are planning to target a handful of Republican lawmakers most
likely to suffer political consequences next year if Congress fails to act on immigration reform.
A campaign set to be announced Thursday will marry the financial and political power of the
AFL-CIO and SEIU labor unions with smaller grass-roots immigrant advocacy groups, including
Americas Voice, PICO National Network, Mi Familia Vota and CASA in Action, to target nine
House GOP lawmakers who support establishing a way for eligible immigrants to apply for
U.S. citizenship.
The campaign will target Reps. Jeff Denham (R-Calif.), David Valadao (R-Calif.), Howard Buck
McKeon (R-Calif.), Gary Miller (R-Calif.), Scott Tipton (R-Colo.), Mike Coffman (R-Colo.), Daniel
Webster (R-Fla.), Steve Pearce (R-N.M.) and Joe Heck (R-Nev.). They represent districts with
sizable Latino voting populations where President Obama won or performed well last year. They
also have publicly voiced support for revamping the nations immigration laws.
Organizers said the goal of the campaign is to pressure the lawmakers to match their public
statements by lobbying colleagues and House Republican leaders to permit votes on a series
of immigration bills introduced in recent months. If the nine lawmakers fail to convince their
colleagues by the end of the year, the groups plan to devote more resources to defeating
them in next year's elections and to expand their campaign.
"This is designed to tell Republicans that if you don't take action on reform, there will be
people who will take action in districts where Republicans are vulnerable to mobilize Latino
and immigrant voters to reward or punish a member of Congress," said Frank Sharry, executive
director of America's Voice, a leading national immigration advocacy group.
"A Republican majority in the House depends on people in vulnerable districts winning," Sharry
noted. "It just seems [House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio)] and company are more worried
about members being primaried by tea party challengers than their members in districts with
growing Latino populations. This is designed to tell them, Guess what -- youd better worry. "
The House is unlikely to consider any immigration legislation before Congress passes another
short-term spending plan in mid-January, according to top Republican aides. Even if debate ever
begins, Boehner and his lieutenants have said they will not support a comprehensive Senate
plan that would allow illegal immigrants to pursue citizenship over a 13-year period, saying they
will consider a series of smaller-scale bills.
House lawmakers are on recess this week, but a visit to Capitol Hill last week by hundreds of
conservative business and religious leaders helped persuade some GOP lawmakers to take
another look at the issue, said Sen. Jeff Flake (R-Ariz.), who cosponsored the Senate plan passed
this summer.
"There seems to be new life in the House on this," he said Wednesday.
Flake served for 10 years in the House before ascending to the Senate in January and remains in
close contact with House Republicans. He said there is growing interest in establishing ways for
the children of undocumented immigrants and certain farm workers to more quickly gain U.S.
citizenship, while establishing ways for the vast majority of undocumented immigrants to seek
a permanent legal status.
"Thered be no special path created, but they would not be precluded from taking one of the
paths that already exists," Flake said.
Flake said there's likely to be bipartisan support for the proposal, "because thats the only way
a deal can be had. I think theres a good-faith effort underway on both sides of the aisle."
Congressional Democrats also remain hopeful that House Republicans will quickly take up the
issue, possibly in December before another round of negotiations over a short-term spending
bill in January.
Will pass, massive public pressure on conservatives.
By Immigration Attorney Caroly Pedersen 11/9/13 Immigration Advocates Keep Pressure On
The House To Pass Immigration Reform
http://www.americanimmigrationcentral.com/ImmigrationReformUpdates.html TJN
President Obama and Vice President Biden met with leaders of big business and industry last
week at the Whitehouse to discuss immigration reform and to strategize on turning up the
heat on Conservative House Republicans. The group included the CEO and President of
Lockheed Martin, Deloitte CEO Joe Echevarria, Motorola CEO Greg Brown, and McDonald's CEO
Don Thompson.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce sent 50 small business owners to meet with
lawmakers in efforts to make the case for improving the U.S. economy by passing Immigration
Reform.
On another front, Conservative Religious Leader Samuel Rodriguez, president of the National
Hispanic Christian Leadership Conference (NHCLC), the nation's largest Christian Hispanic
organization, representing more than 40,000 churches, launched a 40-Day hunger strike for
Immigration Reform. Rodriguez, a conservative leader who gave the benediction at last year's
Republican National Convention, was among a dozen faith leaders who were invited to the
White House earlier this year, to discuss comprehensive immigration reform with the
President.
As an advocate for immigrants rights, Rodriguez told the media that Immigration Reform is a
religious and moral issue, urging fellow evangelical pastors to advocate for an overhaul of the
broken immigration system to provide a path to legal status for undocumented immigrants,
estimated at about 11 million, tighten border security and expand guest worker visas.

Public pressure is paying off an more republicans are signing on. Pelosi says
they have enough votes.
By Immigration Attorney Caroly Pedersen 11/9/13 Campaign To Win House Republican Votes
For Immigration Reform Showing Positive Results
http://www.americanimmigrationcentral.com/ImmigrationReformUpdates.html TJN
As expected, a coalition of Hi-tech industry icons and over 600 business leaders from 40 states
descended upon Capitol Hill last week for meetings with some 150 House Republican
members, in a massive campaign to push resistant House Republicans to act on
Comprehensive Immigration Reform and pass a Bill before the years end.
The good news is that this and other strategies seem to be paying off, with now, three House
Republicans signing on to co-sponsor the House Immigration Reform Bill: Rep. David Valado,
Rep Jeff Denham and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (Florida).
Meanwhile, Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi told the Washington Post that she believes the
House has enough Democratic and Republican votes necessary to pass the pending
Immigration Reform Bill, later writing on Facebook With 28 Republicans having publicly
expressed support for a path to citizenship, we believe the votes are there on a bipartisan
basis to pass a bill,Its just a question whether Speaker Boehner can muster the

Wont Pass

CIR wont pass, needs three unlikely miracles.
SAHIL KAPUR 11/4/13NOVEMBER 4, 2013, 3:30 PM EST Three Miracles That Could Save
Immigration Reform TPM DC http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/immigration-reform-house TJN
Immigration reformers got a boost of confidence recently after three House Republican signed
on to sweeping legislation that mirrors the Senate-passed overhaul.
"There's growing bipartisan support to pass common sense immigration reform in the House
this year," said a House Democratic leadership aide. "The only question left to answer is
whether Speaker Boehner will schedule a vote and let the majority work its will. Or will
Republican leaders continue to stand in the way of reforming our broken immigration system."
Despite glimmers of hope in the new GOP co-sponsors to the Democratic-led bill, and the fact
that senior Republican lawmakers publicly say they haven't given up, immigration reform
remains in purgatory and needs a miracle to be rescued.
The three Republicans who have cosponsored the bill, bringing the number of signatories to
190, are Reps. Jeff Denham (CA), Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL) and David Valadao (CA). While it is a
significant development, these are the likeliest pro-reform GOP suspects: Ros-Lehtinen
represents the largest share of Hispanics in any GOP-held district, according to Census data
compiled by the New York Times. Valadao is second on that list, and Denham is eighth.
Supporting the comprehensive bill is a political win-win for these members: it gives them
political cover with pro-reform constituents in the event that the legislation withers and dies,
but stops short of risking their good standing with party leaders.
"It's important to keep the conversation going in trying to fix the broken immigration system. I
favor any approach that will help us move the negotiations forward," Ros-Lehtinen said in a
statement. "Other Members may soon produce a bipartisan product that may also deserve
support and I'm cautiously optimistic that we can pass meaningful immigration reform."
There are ultimately three scenarios in which reform can pass Congress -- two of them require
a willingness from Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) to cross conservatives, and one of them
requires a significant number of GOP lawmakers to cross their leadership.
1) Democrats Score 217 Votes For A Discharge Petition
One way to gauge the seriousness of GOP supporters of reform would be to see if they sign on
to a discharge petition -- a vehicle that allows the House minority to force a floor vote on
legislation by securing 217 -- or 218, if current vacancies get filled -- signatories for it.
Democrats are facing pressure to resort to option this but haven't done so yet because they
want to give Boehner options to move a bill. They also worry it would be a nonstarter because
it requires GOP lawmakers to cross their leadership -- discharge petitions virtually never
succeed for this reason. As was evident during the government shutdown debacle, Republicans
have no appetite to snub their leaders by teaming up with Democrats: not a single one signed
the discharge petition for a clean funding measure, even as many called for one.
Any House Republican who signs a discharge petition would turn himself or herself into a target
for the GOP base, inviting accusations of betraying conservatives in service of granting
"amnesty" to law-breakers. Then come the attacks from advocacy groups and the inevitable
primary challenges. It would be a huge -- potentially career-ending -- risk.
2) Boehner Gets Half Of The House GOP To Support Reform
As Rep. Fred Upton (R-MI), the chairman of the powerful Energy & Commerce Committee, told
his constituents days ago, Republican leaders are working to get half the conference on board
for reform. This adherence to the so-called Hastert Rule is central to Boehner's strategy for
passing bills, designed to protect himself from a coup d'etat. GOP opposition to a
comprehensive bill is so small that Boehner has flatly rejected that approach. The backup plan is
to pass individual bills and go to conference with the Senate. But conservatives see this as a
ruse and are pushing with all their might to slam the door shut on any bill or process that may
end up normalizing the status of unauthorized immigrants.
There are many obstacles to getting half the GOP conference on board. First, Judiciary
Chairman Bob Goodlatte (R-VA), who has jurisdiction on immigration policy, has ruled out a bill
that promises citizenship to anyone living in the country illegally. Second, the most prominent
conservative supporter of reform, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), last week came out against
conference on the Senate-passed bill he voted for. Without Rubio to help them defend the
sweeping bill to Rush Limbaugh and Fox News, conservatives would be more skittish about
backing it. Third, the shutdown fight left House Republicans bruised and more determined not
to line up behind a bill that President Barack Obama wants to make part of his legacy. Rep.
Matt Salmon (R-AZ) said recently that Boehner assured him the House would only go to
conference on individual immigration bills passed by the lower chamber -- not on the Senate
bill.
"If he allows something to pass out of conference that looks anything like the Senate bill, and it
is passed with a majority of Democrats, I think that will be the final thing he does as Speaker,"
Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) said this summer.
3) Boehner Allows A Vote On The Senate-Passed Bill
This option is procedurally the easiest of all, but it'd be a death knell to Boehner's speakership.
Despite rumors to the contrary, his office maintains he has no intention of stepping down. He
has promised members that he won't permit a vote on the Senate-approved overhaul,
repeatedly likening it to Obamacare -- just about the worst insult in the conservative playbook.
It'd be a massive breach of trust, from which he probably wouldn't recover.


CIR wont pass, no time on the calendar.
Silvio Canto, Jr. 11/5/13 November 5, 2013 Hard to see how immigration reform passes now
http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2013/11/hard_to_see_how_immigration_reform_passe
s_now.html TJN

As we navigate through the ObamaCare fiasco and "the promise of keeping your policy," it's
hard to see how immigration reform can fit into this busy calendar. We will see more protests
directed at Congress but it won't really have an impact.
2013 is over. There is no bill on the floor and the Senate proposal will not get out of the House.
The Senate bill was never debated openly by Senators. The ObamaCare 2,000 page fiasco will
make it difficult to pass anything "comprehensive" in the near future!
The first quarter of 2014 will be all about the budget. We will see a repeat of the last 60 days
without the shutdown. The other big difference is that President Obama is weaker politically
than two months ago.
The primaries start in the second quarter and every politician, running or defending his seat, will
be on an election mode. Politicians avoid controversy during election seasons so forget
immigration.
Furthermore, Democrats will have to do very heavy lifting with ObamaCare. Do you think that
they want immigration reform on their agenda? I don't think so!
Last, but not least, there is a bipartisan coalition to do border security and some limited version
of The Dream Act. However, I don't see anything happening on immigration reform before the
2014 midterms.


Not enough time to pass immigration reform this year.
BY IGOR VOLSKY 11/9/13 ON NOVEMBER 9, 2013 AT 1:38 PM Its Official: When It Comes To
Immigration, House GOP Can Only Agree On Deporting DREAMers
http://thinkprogress.org/immigration/2013/11/09/2920651/official-house-gops-immigration-
vote-2013-deport-dreamers/ TJN
House Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) told immigration advocates that lawmakers will
not take-up immigration reform this year. As a result, an amendment to deport DREAM-
eligible immigrants which passed with overwhelming GOP support in June will be the only
immigration measure to have received a vote on the floor of the House in 2013.
McCarthys remarks came after a week-long lobbying blitz from business groups, religious
organizations, and immigration advocates. Proponents argued that comprehensive reform will
provide a boost to the nations economy, create jobs for U.S. citizens and immigrants in the
agriculture, retail trade, and construction sectors and bring millions of people out of the
shadows.
But despite a series of constructive meetings with advocates, McCarthy explained to
protesters camped outside of his district office in California that Congress did not have enough
time to consider reform in the 16 remaining legislative days. The comments contradict reports
of GOP leaders struggling to come up with an agenda to fill the end of the year with the House
facing no immediate cataclysmic deadlines. Members come back from a week-long recess on
Tuesday.

Republicans announced they would not allow an immigration reform to pass.
By H. Nelson Goodson 11/9/13 November 9, 2013 SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 9, 2013
"No vote for 2013" On Immigration Reform The U.S. House GOP Leadership Confirmed
http://hispanicnewsnetwork.blogspot.com/2013/11/no-vote-for-2013-on-immigration-
reform.html TJN
Washington, D.C. - In the last three days around the country, multiple sit-ins held in cities by
immigrant rights organizations to push for the U.S. House majority GOP leadership to allow a
vote on an immigration bill has made no strives to getting a bill closer to getting introduced
and approved before the 113th first House session ends in seven days. The GOP leadership
including House majority leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) once again confirmed late Friday, that
an immigration reform bill will not come to the House floor for a vote, claiming that not
enough time to debate and approve one. With McCarthy's confirmation on Friday, any hope of
passing a bill before 2013 ends is definitely a dead issue.