Peer Olaf Siebers1, Uwe Aickelin1, Helen Celia2, Chris W. Clegg2
1
University of Nottingham, School of Computer Science (IMA)
Nottingham, NG8 1BB, UK
2
University of Leeds, Centre for Organisational Strategy, Learning & Change, LUBS
Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
Often models for understanding the impact of management practices on retail performance
are developed under the assumption of stability, equilibrium and linearity, whereas retail
operations are considered in reality to be dynamic, non linear and complex. Alternatively,
discrete event and agent based modelling are approaches that allow the development of
simulation models of heterogeneous non equilibrium systems for testing out different
scenarios.
When developing simulation models one has to abstract and simplify from the real world,
which means that one has to try and capture the ‘essence’ of the system required for
developing a representation of the mechanisms that drive the progression in the real system.
Simulation models can be developed at different levels of abstraction. To know the
appropriate level of abstraction for a specific application is often more of an art than a
science. We have developed a retail branch simulation model to investigate which level of
model accuracy is required for such a model to obtain meaningful results for practitioners.
Discrete Event Modelling; Agent Based Modelling; Simulation;
Management Practices; Shopping Behaviour; Customer Satisfaction
Retail
Productivity;
The retail sector has been identified as one of the biggest contributors to the productivity gap
that persists between the UK and other countries, in particular France, Germany and the USA
(Reynolds
, 2005). UK retail productivity measures paint a worrying picture, describing
lower levels of efficiency than what we would expect (Department of Trade and Industry,
2003), and in particular lower than the benchmark countries already stated. Researchers
have so far failed to explain fully the reasons accounting for the productivity gap, and
management practices provide a valid and thoughtful way of looking at the problem. The
analysis of management practices across different contexts has attempted to explain
differences in organisational productivity and performance (for a review see Wall and Wood,
2005).
A recent report on UK productivity asserted that “... the key to productivity remains what
happens inside the firm and this is something of a ‘black box’…” (Delbridge
, 2006).
Siebers and colleagues conducted a comprehensive literature review of this research area to
assess linkages between management practices and organisational productivity (Siebers
, 2008). The authors concluded that management practices are multidimensional constructs
that generally do not demonstrate a straightforward relationship with productivity variables.
Empirical evidence affirms that both management practices and productivity measures must
be context specific to be effective. Management practices need to be tailored to the particular
organisation and the working environment, whereas productivity indices must also reflect a
particular organisation’s activities on a local level to be a valid indicator of performance.
It is challenging work to try and delineate the effects of management practices from other
socially embedded factors. Most Operations Research (OR) methods can be applied as
analytical tools once management practices have been implemented, however they are not
very useful at revealing system level effects prior to the introduction of specific management
practices. This is most restricting when the focal interest is the development of the system
over time, because dynamic behaviour is a fundamental feature of many interesting real world
1
phenomena. An alternative to these methods, which offers potential to overcome such
limitations, is simulation. In particular Agent Based Simulation (ABS) seems to be well suited
to the investigation of people centric complex adaptive systems, of which a retail department
is an example.
There has been a lot of modelling and simulation of operational management practices, but
people management practices, for example training, empowerment and teamwork, have often
been neglected. This seems a fertile area for research as recent findings suggest that people
management practices significantly impact on a business’ productivity (Birdi
, 2008). One
reason for the paucity of modelling and simulation of people management practices relates to
their key component, an organisation’s people, who are often unpredictable in their individual
behaviour.
Our overall aim is to investigate if we can understand the relationship between people
management practices and retail performance better by employing simulation as the
technology for evaluating different strategies, considering that the system of interest is
dynamic, non linear and complex. In pursuit of this aim, we studied the following two research
questions: (1) Is an event driven simulation a suitable tool to better understand the
relationship between people management practices and retail performance? (2) What level of
abstraction should we use for our simulation model?
To answer these research questions we have adopted a case study approach using applied
research methods to collect both qualitative and quantitative data. We have worked with a
leading UK retail organisation where we have conducted some surveys and four weeks of
informal participant observation in four departments across two retail branches. The approach
has enabled us to acquire a valid and reliable understanding of how the real system operates,
revealing insights into the working of the system as well as the behaviour of and interactions
between the different individuals and their complementary roles within the retail department.
Using the obtained knowledge and the data, we have developed conceptual models of the
real system and the individuals within the system and implemented these in a simulation
model.
The simulation model has been developed in two major steps, each related to one of the
research questions defined above. First, we have focused on putting together a functional
representation of the real system using a mixed process oriented Discrete Event Modelling
(DEM) and individual oriented Agent Based Modelling (ABM) approach and we have tested if
such an approach is of use for investigating the impact of people management practices on
productivity and customer satisfaction. After obtaining a positive answer to the first research
question (Siebers
, 2009) in this paper we are focusing on investigating the second
research question, i.e. the level of model accuracy required to obtain some meaningful results
for practitioners. For this purpose, we have added some more details to the model (in form of
additional algorithms and empirical data) and tested the sensitivity of the simulation model
towards these additions. We have also compared the system performance predicted by the
simulation model (without using any form of calibration) to the system performance measured
in the real system, in order to access the predictive capabilities (qualitative or quantitative) of
our simulation model in its current form.
The investigations described in this paper help practitioners to decide how to best coordinate
time and effort when having limited resources for conducting similar simulation studies.
In Section 2 we give an overview of the relevant literature, looking at the different modelling
approaches used in OR and at previous attempts to model people centric systems in an OR
context. Section 3 describes the model design and its implementation. Section 4 presents two
experiments we have conducted to validate the final simulation model and to test the
sensitivity of the model output towards some of the features we have added in the second
development step of our simulation model. Section 5 concludes the paper with a summary
and an outlook of further developments.
2
OR is applied to problems concerning the conduct and co ordination of the operations within
an organisation (Hillier and Lieberman, 2005). An OR study usually involves the development
of a scientific model that attempts to abstract the essence of the real problem. When
investigating the behaviour of complex systems the choice of an appropriate modelling
technique is very important. To inform the choice of an appropriate modelling technique we
have reviewed relevant literature from the fields of Economics, Social Sciences, Psychology,
Retail Management, Supply Chain Management, Manufacturing, Marketing, OR, Artificial
Intelligence, and Computer Science.
Within the fields listed above a wide variety of approaches have been used which can be
broadly classified into three categories: analytical approaches, heuristic approaches and
simulation. Often we found that combinations of these were used within a single model (e.g.
Schwaiger and Stahmer, 2003; Greasley, 2005).
Once data has been collected, it is common in economics, Social Science, and Psychology to
use analytical analysis tools to quantify causal relationships between different factors. Often
some form of regression analysis is used to investigate the correlation between independent
and dependent variables. Patel and Schlijper (2004) use a multitude of different analytical and
other modelling approaches to test specific hypotheses of consumer behaviour. Another good
example of this type of analysis can be found in Clegg
(2002) who investigate the use
and effectiveness of modern manufacturing practices. The survey data is analysed using
parametric and nonparametric analytical techniques, as appropriate to the nature of the
response scales and the distributions of scores obtained.
No relevant purely heuristic models were found during the literature review. This does not
come as a surprise as pure heuristic models are more frequently used in system optimisation,
i.e. not the focus of our current research.
Simulation introduces the possibility of a new way of thinking about social and economic
processes based on ideas about the emergence of complex behaviour from relatively simple
activities (Simon, 1996). It allows clarification of a theory and investigation of its implications.
OR usually employs three different types of simulation modelling to help understand the
behaviour of organisational systems, each of which has its distinct application area: System
Dynamics (SD), Discrete Event Simulation (DES) and ABS. SD takes a top down approach by
modelling system changes over time. The analyst has to identify the key state variables that
define the behaviour of the system and these are then related to each other through coupled,
differential equations. SD is applied where individuals within the system do not have to be
highly differentiated and knowledge on the aggregate level is available, for example modelling
population, ecological and economic systems.
DES is a process centric modelling approach, i.e. the focus is on process flow. The system is
modelled as a set of entities (passive objects) that are processed and evolve over time
according to the availability of resources and the triggering of events (Law and Kelton, 1991).
The simulation model maintains an ordered queue of events. DES is commonly used as a
decision support tool in the manufacturing and service industries.
ABS is well suited for modelling systems with a heterogeneous, autonomous and proactive
population, and is therefore well suited to analyse people centric systems. It is a bottom up
approach where the modeller has to identify the active entities in the system, defines their
behaviours, puts them in an environment, and establishes their connections. Macro behaviour
at the system level does not have to be modelled explicitly; it emerges as a result from the
interactions between the individual entities, also called agents (Pourdehnad
, 2002).
These agents are autonomous discrete entities with individual goals and behaviours, where
autonomy refers to the fact that they act independently and are not guided by some central
3
control authority or process. (Bakken, 2007). In addition, agents are capable of behaving
proactively, i.e. initiating changes rather than just reacting to events.
ABS is suited to a system driven by interactions between its constituent entities, and can
reveal what appears to be complex emergent behaviour at the system level even when the
agents involved exhibit fairly simple behaviours on a micro level. Some typical application
domains for ABS are ecology, traffic and transportation, sociology, economic system analysis,
and gaming. Out of the simulation approaches reviewed ABS seems to be the most suitable
one for our purpose due to it autonomous entity focus.
Most methods to study managerial implications can only be applied as analytical tools once
management practices have been implemented, however they are not very useful at revealing
system level effects prior to the introduction of specific management practices. Simulation is a
what if analysis tool that allows to study different management practices scenarios prior to
their implementation without interrupting the operation of the real system. Furthermore, often
analytical models are developed under the assumption of stability, equilibrium and linearity.
However, retail operations are considered in reality to be dynamic, non linear and complex.
Simulation allows developing models of non equilibrium systems at any level of complexity.
While analytical models typically aim to explain correlations between variables measured at a
single point in time, simulation models are concerned with the development of a system over
time (Law and Kelton, 1991). Therefore, simulation provides an insight into system dynamics
rather than just predicting the output of a system based on specific inputs. In addition, it
allows visualising the changes of key variables over time, which provides useful information
about the dynamic behaviour of the system.
ABS in particular has some additional features that are very useful for modelling people
centric systems. It supports the understanding of how the dynamics of real systems arise from
the characteristics of individuals and their environment. It allows modelling a highly diverse
population where each agent can have personal motivations and incentives, and to represent
groups and group interactions. Furthermore, human behaviour is often quite irrational. For
example, fleeing a fire people will often try to retrace their steps and leave the building by the
way they came in, rather than heading for the nearest exit even if it is much closer. While
other simulation modelling techniques do not allow the consideration of such concepts ABS
allows representing irrational behaviour. Another advantage of ABS is that building an ABS
model is a very intuitive process as actors in the real system can be directly modelled as
agents in the simulation model. This also supports the micro validation (i.e. the validation of
the agent templates) of the simulation model as it is easy for an expert in the real system
(who is not an expert in ABS) to quickly take on board the model conceptualisation and
provide useful validation of the model component structures and content.
Nevertheless, there are also some disadvantages associated with ABS. Often people argue
about computational resources, stating that ABS requires massive resources compared to
other simulation technologies (e.g. Rahmandad and Sterman, 2008). However, we have
made the experience in previous projects that with today’s technology in this particular area of
application (where the number of agents simulated at the same time is relatively small)
simulation run times are acceptable when using Java as a programming language. There also
seems consensus in the literature that it is difficult to empirically evaluate agent based
models, in particular at the macro level, because the behaviour of the system emerges from
the interactions between the individual entities (Moss and Edmonds, 2005). Furthermore,
problems often occur through a lack of adequate empirical data; it has been questioned
whether a model can be considered a scientific representation of a system when it has not
been built with 100% objective, measurable data. However, many of the variables built into a
system cannot be quantified objectively. In such cases, expertly validated estimates offer a
unique solution to the problem. Finally, Twomey and Cadman (2002) state that there is
always a danger that people new to ABS may expect too much from an ABM, in particular
with respect to predictive ability (a caveat which in fact applies to all the simulation
approaches mentioned above). To mitigate this problem it is important to be clear with
4
individuals about what this modelling technique can really offer in order to guide realistic
expectations.
In conclusion, we can say that simulation, and in particular ABS, offers a fresh opportunity to
realistically and validly model organisational characters and their interactions, which in turn
can facilitate a meaningful investigation of management practices and their impact on system
outcomes.
We have found that most of the work relevant to our investigations focuses on marketing and
consumer behaviour rather then on management practices. For example, Said
(2002)
have created an ABS composed of a virtual consumer population to study the effects of
marketing strategies in a competing market context. A similar approach has been used by
Baxter et al (2003) who have developed an intelligent customer relationship management tool
using ABS that considers the communication of customer experiences between members of a
social network, incorporating the powerful influence of word of mouth on the adoption of
products and services. A very different facet of consumer behaviour is presented by Kitazawa
and Batty (2004) who investigate the retail movements of shoppers in a large shopping
centre. There are many more examples where ABM has been employed to study consumer
behaviours (e.g. Cao, 1999; Csik, 2003; Jager
, 2000; Baydar, 2003) or entire consumer
market behaviours (e.g. Vriend, 1995; Twomey and Cadman, 2002; Said and Bouron, 2001;
Koritarov, 2004; Janssen and Jager, 2001; Schenk
, 2007).
While most of the relevant papers reviewed apply ABM and ABS there are some noteworthy
exceptions. For example, Berman and Larson (2004) use queue control models to investigate
the efficiency of cross trained workers in stores. Another interesting contribution is made by
Nicholson
(2002), who compare different marketing strategies for multi channel (physical
and electronic) retailing, applying a traditional Belkian analysis of situational variables in a
longitudinal study of consumer channel selection decisions. As a last example, we want to
mention Patel and Schlijper (2004) who use a multitude of different analytical and other
modelling approaches to test specific hypotheses of consumer behaviour.
Finally, it is worthwhile mentioning that we have found one of the shelf software, ShopSim
(http://www.savannah simulations.com/ accessed 30/07/2009), which is a decision support
tool for retail and shopping centre management. It evaluates the shop mix attractiveness and
pedestrian friendliness of a shopping centre. The software uses an agent based approach,
where the behaviour of agents depends on poll data.
When modelling people management practices in OR one is mainly interested in the relations
between staff and customers but it is equally important to consider parts of the operational
structure of the system in order to enable a realistic evaluation of system performance and
customer satisfaction. Therefore, we have decided to use a mixed DEM and ABM approach
for our simulation model. A queuing system will be used to model the operational structure of
the system while the people within the system will be modelled as autonomous entities
(agents) in order to account for the stochasticity caused by human decision making. This will
also allow us to consider the long term effects of service quality on the decision making
processes of customers, both important components when designing a tool for studying
people centric systems. The application of a mixed DEM and ABM approach has been proven
to be quite successful in areas like manufacturing and supply chain modelling (e.g. Parunak
, 1998; Darley
, 2004) as well as in the area of modelling crowd movement (e.g.
Dubiel and Tsimhoni, 2005).
Finally, we would like to note that our goal is to develop a simulation model that is a genuinely
practical model, which incorporates enough realism to yield results that will be of direct value
to managers. This differentiates it from many idealised and simplified simulation models in the
academic literature. In particular in ABM, although most models have been inspired by
observations of real social systems they have not been tested rigorously using empirical data
and most efforts do not go beyond a “proof of concept” (Janssen and Ostrom, 2006).
5
When modelling people inside a system it is important to consider that there are differences in
the way ABM is applied in different research fields regarding their empirical embeddednes.
Boero and Squazzoni (2005) distinguish between three different levels, amongst others
characterised by the level of empirical data used for input modelling and model validation:
case based models (for studying specific circumscribed empirical phenomena), typifications
(for studying specific classes of empirical phenomena) and theoretical abstractions (pure
theoretical models). While case based models use empirical data for input modelling as well
as model validation theoretical abstractions use no empirical data at all. Social Science
simulation applications tend to be more oriented towards the bottom end of this scale
(theoretical abstractions) OR applications are usually located at the top end (case based).
This implies that there is also a difference in knowledge representation and in the outcome
that the researcher is interested in. In Social Sciences it is common to model the decision
making process itself (e.g. Rao and Georgeff, 1995) and the focus of attention on the output
side is on the emergence of patterns. On the other hand in OR applications the decision
making process is often represented through probabilities or simple if then decision rules
collected from an existing real system (e.g. Schwaiger, 2007; Darley
, 2004) and the
focus on the output side is on system performance rather than on emergent phenomena. As
we are studying a people centric service system, we have added some additional measures
to assess how people perceive the services provided, besides the standard system
performance measures.
We start this section by describing the case studies we have conducted to better understand
the problem domain and to gather some empirical data. What we have learned during those
case studies is reflected in the conceptual models presented. We have used these together
with the empirical data collected as a basis for our implementation, which we describe
towards the end of this section. Throughout the rest of this paper we will use the term 'actor'
to refer to a person in the real system, whereas the term 'agent' will be reserved for their
counterparts in the simulation model. Furthermore, we will use the abbreviation ‘ManPraSim’
when referring to our management practice simulation model and v1 for the simulation model
developed to answer the first research question and v2 for the simulation model developed to
answer the second research question.
Case studies were undertaken in four departments across two branches of a leading UK
retailer. The case study work involved extensive data collection techniques, spanning:
participant observation, semi structured interviews with team members, management and
personnel, completion of survey questionnaires on the effectiveness of retail management
practices and the analysis of company data and reports. Research findings were consolidated
and fed back (via report and presentation) to employees with extensive experience and
knowledge of the four departments in order to validate our understanding and conclusions.
This approach has enabled us to acquire a valid and reliable understanding of how the real
system operates, revealing insights into the working of the system as well as the behaviour of
and interactions between the different actors within it.
In order to make sure that our results regarding the application of management practices are
applicable for a wide variety of departments, we have chosen two different types of case
study departments which are substantially different not only in their way of operating but also
their customer base and staffing setup. We collected our data in the Audio & Television
(A&TV) and the WomensWear (WW) departments of the two case study branches.
The two departments can be characterised as follows:
A&TV: average customer service times is much longer; average purchase is much
more expensive; likelihood of customers seeking help is much higher; likelihood of
customers making a purchase after receiving help is lower; conversion rate (likelihood
of customers making a purchase) is lower; department tends to attract more solution
demanders and service seekers (the terminology will be explained in Section 3.4.2)
WW: average customer service times is much shorter; average purchase is much
less expensive; likelihood of customers seeking help is much lower; likelihood of
6
customers making a purchase after receiving is much higher; conversion rate is
higher; department tends to attract shopping enthusiasts
Based on the results of our assessment of alternative modelling techniques in the background
section and from what we have learned from our case studies we have designed conceptual
models of the system to be investigated and the actors within the system.
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( , *
The initial idea for our ManPraSim and its components is shown in Figure 1. Regarding
system inputs we use different types of agents (customers, sales staff and managers), each
with a different set of relevant attributes. Furthermore, we define some global parameters that
can influence any aspect of the system. The core of our simulation model is a dynamic
system representation including a visualisation of system and agent states to allow monitoring
the interactions of the agents as well as the system performance at runtime. The simulation
model also includes a user interface, which enables some form of user interaction (change of
parameters) before and during the runtime. On the output side, we might be able to observe
some emergent behaviour on the macro level although this is not our primary objective. What
we are mainly interested in are the standard system performances measures like
transactions, staff utilisation and some measure of customer satisfaction. Furthermore, we
want to use the simulation output to identify bottlenecks in the system and therefore assist
with optimisation of the modelled system.
'-)$
. Conceptual model of the retail department simulation model.
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We have used state charts for the conceptual design of our agents. State charts show the
different states an entity can be in and define the events that cause a transition from one state
to another. This is exactly the information we need in order to represent our agents at a later
stage within the simulation environment. We have found this graphical representation a useful
part of the agent design process because it is easier for an expert in the real system (who is
not an expert in ABM) to quickly take on board the model conceptualisation and provide
useful validation of the model component structures and content.
Designing and building a model is to some extent subjective, and the modeller has to
selectively simplify and abstract from the real scenario to create a useful model (Shannon,
1975). A model is always a restricted copy of the real world, and an effective model consists
of only the most important components of the real system. In our case, our case studies
indicated that the key system components take the form of the behaviours of an actor and the
7
triggers that initiate a change from one behavioural state to another. We have developed
state charts for all of the agents in our retail department simulation model. Figure 2 shows as
an example the conceptual model of a customer agent. Here the transition rules have been
omitted to keep the chart comprehensible.
'-)$
. Conceptual model of our customer agents.
An important remark about the order in which a customer is going through the different states
within the customer state chart is that there is a logical order to events. Some of this order
has been expressed with single and double headed arrows whereas others would have been
difficult to express in the graph directly without losing the concept of the connecting
contemplating state. For example, a customer would not be queuing at the till to buy
something without having purchased an item. Therefore, the preceding event for a customer
queuing at the till is to make a purchase, which in turn requires that the customer has been
browsing to pick up an item to purchase. These rules have been considered later in the
implementation (see Section 3.4.1 and Figure 3 for more details).
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We have introduced a customer satisfaction level index as a novel performance measure
using satisfaction weightings. This new measure is required because existing indices such as
queuing times or service times are less useful in modelling services than manufacturing
activities. In essence, purely quantitative measures fail to capture the quality of service, which
is arguably the most important when considering productivity in retail. The inevitable trade off
between quality and quantity is particularly salient when customers and staff come face to
face and therefore we consider this measure of quality in conjunction with others of quantity.
Historically customer satisfaction has been defined and measured in terms of customer
satisfaction with a purchased product (Yi, 1990). The development of more sophisticated
measures has moved on to incorporate customers’ evaluations of the overall relationship with
the retail organisation, and a key part of this is the service interaction. Indeed, empirical
evidence suggests that quality is more important for customer satisfaction than price or value
for money (Fornell
, 1996), and extensive anecdotal evidence indicates that customer
staff service interactions are an important determinant of quality as perceived by the
customer.
Our customer satisfaction level index allows customer service satisfaction to be recorded
throughout the simulated lifetime. The idea is that certain situations might have a bigger
impact on customer satisfaction than others, and therefore weights can be assigned to events
to account for this. Depending on type of service requested and level of service provided
different results turn up. Applied in conjunction with an ABM approach, we expect to observe
interactions with individual customer differences; variations which have been empirically
linked to differences in customer satisfaction (e.g. Simon and Usunier, 2007). This helps the
practitioner to find out to what extent customers underwent a positive or negative shopping
experience and it allows the practitioner to put emphasis on different operational aspects and
try out the impact of different strategies.
8
Often agent logic is based on analytical models or heuristics and in the absence of adequate
empirical data theoretical models are used. However, as we have explained in Section 3, we
have taken a different approach. We have used frequency distributions for determining state
change delays and probability distributions for representing the decisions made as statistical
distributions are the best format to represent the data we have gathered during our case
study due to their numerical nature. In this way, a population is created with individual
differences between agents, mirroring the variability of attitudes and behaviours of their real
human counterparts.
Our frequency distributions are modelled as triangular distributions supplying the time that an
event lasts, using the minimum, mode and maximum duration. We have chosen triangular
distributions here as we have only a relatively small sample of empirical data and a triangular
distribution is commonly used as a first approximation for the real distribution (XJTEK, 2005).
The values for our triangular distributions are based on our own observation and expert
estimates in the absence of numerical data. We have collected this information from the two
branches and calculated an average value for each department type, creating one set of data
for A&TV and one set for WW. Table 1 lists some sample frequency distributions that we have
used for modelling the A&TV department (the values presented here are slightly amended to
comply with confidentiality restrictions). The distributions are used as exit rules for most of the
states. All remaining exit rules are based on queue development, i.e. the availability of staff.
situation
leave browse state after …
leave help state after …
leave pay queue (no patience) after …
+0*
min
1
3
5
mode
7
15
12
max
15
30
20
. Sample frequency distribution values.
The probability distributions are partly based on company data (e.g. conversion rates, i.e. the
percentage of customers who buy something) and partly on informed guesses (e.g. patience
of customers before they would leave a queue). As before, we have calculated average
values for each department type. Some examples for probability distributions we used to
model the A&TV department can be found in Table 2. The distributions make up most of the
transition rules at the branches where decisions are made with what action to perceive (e.g.
decision to seek help). The remaining decisions are based on the state of the environment
(e.g. leaving the queue, if the queue does not get shorter quickly enough).
event
someone makes a purchase after browsing
someone requires help
someone makes a purchase after getting help
+0*
probability of event
0.37
0.38
0.56
. Sample probabilities.
We have also gathered some company data about work team numbers and work team
composition, varying opening hours and peak times, along with other operational and financial
details (e.g. transaction numbers and values).
Our conceptual models have been implemented in AnyLogic™ v5.5. This is a Java™ based
multi paradigm simulation software (XJTEK, 2005) which supports the development of mixed
DE and AB models. It allows replacing passive objects from the DE model with active objects
(agents), which in our case represent the actors of the real world system.
As mentioned in Section 1, the simulation model has been developed in two major steps,
each related to one of the research questions. In a first step, we have developed a relatively
simple functional representation of the real system. In this simulation model the agents are
largely homogeneous and without memory. Therefore, it is impossible to study the long term
effects of people management practices on individual customer’s satisfaction. However, this
simulation model turned out to be useful for studying certain aspects of branch operations and
to carry out some experiments for investigating the impact of different people management
9
practices on a strategic level. In a second step, we have added some more features to the
simulation model. We have created a finite population of heterogeneous agents with memory
and the capability to evolve over time and we have added more accuracy to our department
representation by adding empirical footfall data, opening hours varying by day and a special
customer egress procedure for the time when the store is closing. The simulation model has
been validated and we have conducted a sensitivity analysis. In this section, we describe the
functionality and features of the latest version of our simulation model, ManPraSim v2.
During the implementation, we have applied the knowledge, experience and data
accumulated through our case study work. The simulation model presented here is capable of
representing customers, service staff (with different levels of expertise) and managers. Figure
3 shows a screenshot of our customer and staff agent templates in AnyLogic™. Boxes
represent states, arrows transitions, arrows with a dot on top entry points, circles with a B
inside branches, and the numbers represent satisfaction weights. Service staff and managers
are using the same template, only their responsibilities and priorities differ. The system (i.e.
the department) is implemented as an array of queues, each of which is served by dedicated
staff members.
'-)$
. Customer (left) and staff (top right) agent logic implementation in AnyLogic™.
At the beginning of each simulation run, a customer pool is created which represents a
population of potential customers who can visit the simulated department on an unspecified
number of occasions. Once the simulation has started, customers are chosen at a specified
rate (customer arrival rate) and released into the simulated department to shop. The customer
agent template consists of three main blocks (help and pay) which use a very similar logic. In
each block, in the first instance, customers try to obtain service directly from a staff member
and if they cannot obtain it (i.e. no suitable staff member is available) they have to queue.
They are then served as soon as the suitable staff member becomes available, or leave the
queue if they do not want to wait any longer (an autonomous decision). Once customers have
finished their shopping (either successfully or not) they leave the simulated department and
are added back to the customer pool where they rest until they are picked the next time.
10
There are certain peak times where the pressure on staff members is higher, which puts them
under higher work demands and results in different service times. There is a weekly demand
cycle. For example on a Saturday, a lot more customers visit the branch compared to the
average weekday. In ManPraSim v2 we have incorporated these real temporal fluctuations in
customer arrival rates, across daily variations to opening hours. It includes the calculated
hourly footfall values for each of the four case study departments for each hour of the day and
each day of the week, based on sales transaction data that is automatically recorded by the
company. Conversion rates are based on staff estimates and data from a leading UK retail
database. The gaps between customer arrivals are based on exponential distributions, which
account for further variation in weekly footfall.
In real life, customers display certain shopping behaviours that can be categorised. Hence,
we introduced customer types to ManPraSim v2 to create a heterogeneous customer base,
thereby allowing us to test customer populations closer to reality. We have introduced five
customer types: shopping enthusiasts, solution demanders, service seekers, disinterested
shoppers and internet shoppers. The latter are customers that only seek advice but are likely
to buy only from the cheapest source, e.g. the Internet. The first three customer types have
been identified by the case study organisation as the customers who make the biggest
contribution to their business, in terms of both value and frequency of sales. In order to avoid
over inflating the amount of sales that we model we have introduced two additional customer
types, which use services but often do not make a purchase. The definition of each customer
type is based on the customer’s likelihood to perform a certain action, classified as either: low,
moderate, or high. The definitions can be found in Table 3.
Customer type
Shopping enthusiast
Solution demander
Service seeker
Disinterested shopper
Internet shopper
+0*
buy
high
high
moderate
low
low
Likelihood to
wait
ask for help
moderate
moderate
low
low
high
high
low
low
high
high
ask for refund
low
low
low
high
low
. Definitions for each type of customer.
A moderate likelihood is equivalent to an average probability value from Table 2. The low and
high likelihood thresholds are logically derived on the basis of this value (i.e. a new mode is
calculated if the customer type’s likelihood to execute a particular decision is not moderate).
The same method is used for adapting an average delay value from Table 1.
A key aspect to consider is that the most interesting system outcomes evolve over time and
many of the goals of the retail company (e.g., service standards) are planned strategically
over the long term. In ManPraSim v2, we have introduced a finite population where each
agent is given a certain characteristic based on one out of five possible types mentioned
above. Once agents are created, they are added to a customer pool. Each hour a certain
amount of agents chosen at random from the agents in the customer pool are released into
the department at an exponential rate based on the footfall value for that hour. When the
agent has finished shopping, statistics are updated (amongst them the customer satisfaction
index value) and the agent returns to the customer pool. A customer retains his or her
customer satisfaction index throughout the runtime of the simulation.
We have also added some transitions that allow the emulation of customers’ behaviour when
the branch is closing. These are immediate exits of a state that are triggered when the shop is
about to close. Not all states have these additional transitions because it is for example very
unlikely that a customer leaves the branch immediately when he/she is already queuing to
pay. Now the simulated department empties within a ten to fifteen minute period, which
conforms to what we observed in the real system.
In order to test the operation of ManPraSim v2 and ascertain its face validity we conducted
several preliminary experiments. It turned out that conducting the experiments with the data
we collected during our case study did not provide us with a satisfactory match to the
11
performance data of the real system. We identified the staffing setup used in the simulation
model as the root cause of the problem.
The data we have used here has been derived from real staff rotas. On paper, these real
rotas suggested that all staff are engaged in exactly the same work throughout the day but we
knew from working with and observing staff in the case study organisation that in reality each
role includes a variety of activities. Staff members in the real organisation allocate their time
between competing tasks such as customer service, stock replenishment and taking money.
Our simulation model incorporates only one type of work per staff member. For example, the
A&TV staff rota indicates that only one dedicated cashier works on weekdays. When we have
attempted to model this arrangement, customer queues have become extremely long, and the
majority of customers ended up losing their patience and leaving the department prematurely
with a high level of dissatisfaction. In the real system, we observed other staff members
working flexibly to meet the customer demand, and if the queue of customers grew beyond a
certain point then one or two would step in and open up further tills to take customers’ money
before they became dissatisfied with waiting. Furthermore, we observed that a service staff
member, when advising a customer, would often continue to close the sale (e.g. filling in
guarantee forms and taking the money off the customer) rather than asking the customer to
queue at the till and moving on to the next customer.
This means that currently our abstraction level is too high and we do not model the real
system in an appropriate way. In our experiments we have modulated the staffing levels to
allow us to observe the effects of changing key variables but we have tried to maintain the
main characteristic differences between the departments (i.e. we still use more staff in the
WW department compared to the A&TV department, only the amount has changed). We hope
to be able to fix this problem in a later version of our simulation model. For now, we do not
consider this a big problem as long as we are aware of it.
1
As mentioned earlier our simulation model has been developed in two major steps. After
finishing the first step, we have conducted a set of experiments to investigate the usefulness
of the developed simulation model for studying the impact of people management practices
on productivity and customer satisfaction (Siebers
, 2007a; 2007b). We investigated the
following scenarios:
(1) Varying the number of open tills and consequently the mix of
staff roles (as we kept the overall staffing level constant) to assess the effect on
department performance. (2) Testing the impact of expert staff availability on
customer satisfaction.
(1) Varying the extent to which a cashier can independently decide
whether or not to make a customer refund. (2) Testing the impact of non expert staff
members choosing whether or not to stay with his or her customer when the
customer requires advice from an expert. If they choose to stay, the original staff
member can learn from the interaction.
Mimicking an evolutionary process, whereby normal staff members can
progressively develop their product knowledge over a period of time and at an agreed
level of competence will be promoted to expert status.
With ManPraSimMod v2 we have conducted a validation experiment to test our customer pool
implementation and we have conducted a sensitivity analysis to investigate the impact of our
customer types on simulation output. These experiments are not conducted to provide insight
into the operations of the case study department. Instead, they are carried out to test the
simulation model behaviour.
For testing the customer pool implementation of ManPraSim v2 we have repeated the first of
the above experiments with our latest model. Our reasoning behind this experiment is that a
correct implementation should give us similar results as we obtained previously with the older
version, if we use an even mix of all five customer types available.
12
!
Our case study work had helped us to identify some distinguishing characteristics of the two
department types under study (e.g. customer arrival rates and customer service times). In the
experiment we examined the impact of these individual characteristics on the number of
transactions and two customer satisfaction indices. First, the number of satisfied customers
(how many customers left the store with a positive service level index value) and second the
overall satisfaction level (the sum of all customers’ service level index values). During the
experiment, we held the overall number of staffing resources constant at ten, the simulation
lifespan at ten weeks and we conducted 20 replications for each model configuration to
enable the application of rigorous statistical techniques. We focussed on the composition of
the team’s skills by systematically varying the proportion of staff allocated to each role within
the pool of ten staff. In each department, staff was allocated to either selling or cashier duties.
In reality, we saw that allocating extra cashiers would reduce the shop floor sales team
numbers, and therefore the total number of customer facing staff in each department is kept
constant.
When we conducted the experiment with ManPraSim v1, we found support largely in favour of
the predicted curvilinear relationship between the number of cashiers and each of the
outcome variables. We expected this type of relationship because limiting factors restrict the
more extreme experimental conditions; very small numbers of cashiers available to process
purchase transactions detrimentally impacted on the volume of customer transactions, and
conversely very small numbers of selling staff restricted opportunities for customers to receive
advice and consequently negatively influenced customer perceptions of satisfaction. We had
also predicted that performance outcomes would peak with a smaller number of cashiers in
A&TV as compared to WW given the greater customer service requirement in A&TV, and the
higher frequency of sales transactions in WW. Results supported this hypothesis for both
customer satisfaction indices, but not for the number of transactions where the peak level
occurred at the same point. This was surprising because we would have expected the longer
average service times in A&TV to put a greater ‘squeeze’ on customer help availability with
even a relatively small increase in the number of cashiers.
When repeating the experiment with ManPraSim v2 we tried to mimic the generic customer
from v1 by using an even mix of all five customer types available. We maintained a customer
pool size at 10,000 for each of the model configurations. In order to enable the application of
rigorous statistical techniques we have conducted 20 replications. The experimental results
are analysed using tabulated and graphical illustrations of mean values. Despite our prior
knowledge of how the real system operates, we were unable to hypothesize precise
differences in variable relationships. We have instead predicted patterns of relationships and
we believe this is congruent with what the simulation model can offer; it is a decision support
tool which is only able to inform us about directional changes between variables (actual
figures are notional).
In general, we predict a similar number of transactions for both simulation model versions as
we tried to mimic a generic customer. We do however predict a change in the number of
satisfied customers: we expect the results to show a shift from neutral to either satisfied or
dissatisfied. This polarisation of customer satisfaction is expected because ManPraSim v2
enables the customer population to re enter the system and each re entry increases the
likelihood that neutral customers shift to satisfied or dissatisfied. Looking at overall
satisfaction level, we would expect similar trends for v1 and v2, but we predict the magnitude
of the results for v2 to be significantly higher. This is because it incorporates an accumulated
history of satisfaction trends for customers who have returned to the department on multiple
occasions, unlike v1, which records satisfaction levels only for single, independent visits.
"
The descriptive statistics for ManPraSim v1 and v2 are shown in Table 4 and graphical
representations of the results are presented in Figure 4.
13
ManPraSim v1
No. satisfied
Overall satisfaction
customers
level
Mean
SD
Mean
SD
12341.50 74.03
6476.40 599.10
14826.30 73.63 17,420.35 513.50
17,656.65 73.01
26470.10 571.53
17683.90 101.85 30,997.05 502.73
16494.20 73.24 26,746.35 701.66
15,315.35 116.97
18274.10 546.14
13997.40 94.97
7444.30 569.90
18310.70 115.18
20631.20 694.64
22427.30 103.34
45671.40 700.99
28743.70 91.52 62,239.15 546.85
30,999.05 190.91 77,333.95 663.16
29455.90 157.78
77827.30 470.96
27,536.25 93.50 67,958.65 632.84
25634.50 184.57
53262.90 801.20
Staffing
No.
cashiers
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
A&TV
WW
No. transactions
Mean
4864.10
9,811.65
14481.50
15,064.55
14,190.75
13302.30
12338.50
8053.20
15737.80
25,602.45
29,154.95
27893.20
26,189.55
24496.70
SD
23.93
49.29
79.05
90.21
73.20
121.30
112.38
30.74
64.44
101.89
193.98
156.54
88.56
183.85
&
17500
15000
12500
10000
A&TV v1
7500
A&TV v2
5000
SD
16.23
38.99
82.41
102.91
82.20
92.50
110.15
24.44
26.43
113.67
154.59
165.11
173.30
100.57
35000
30000
25000
20000
WW v1
15000
WW v2
10000
5000
( +
2500
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
1
2
3
)( 0 $ # +& %' $&
A&TV v1
15000
A&TV v2
10000
5000
)(0 $ # &+"'&#' ,
)&" ( $&
20000
50000
10000
0
6
7
40000
WW v1
30000
WW v2
20000
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1
2
3
60000
90000
30000
50000
80000
40000
/ $+** &+"'&#+ "'
* / */
70000
20000
20000
15000
10000
10000
0
5000
10000
0
20000
1
2
3
4
5
6
A&TV v1
A&TV v2
( +
30000
20000
/ $+** &+"'&#+ "'
* / */
35000
25000
4
5
6
7
)( 0 $ # +&%' $&
( +
)( 0 $ # +&%' $&
/ $+** &+"'&#+ "'
* / */
5
60000
25000
( +
( +
)(0 $ # &+"'&#' ,
)&" ( $&
30000
( +
4
)( 0 $ # +&%' $&
300000
250000
60000
200000
50000
150000
40000
30000
100000
50000
10000
0
7
WW v1
WW v2
0
1
)( 0 $ # +&%' $&
/ $+** &+"'&#+ "'
* / */
( +
Mean
6124.80
11857.90
15,415.85
15,374.25
14,538.85
13,622.65
12586.50
10235.60
20,051.25
27987.20
28985.50
27887.25
26,488.45
24,632.85
. Descriptive statistics for experiment 1 (all to 2 d.p.).
)(0 $ # "$+ &+ "'
)(0 $ # "$+ &+ "'
&
+0*
ManPraSim v2
No. satisfied
Overall satisfaction
customers
level
Mean
SD
Mean
SD
15528.40 242.63
2624.70 3,110.39
19226.90 241.13
25803.90 2,740.35
22,150.00 237.35 45,162.45 3,571.49
21635.80 197.24
50341.10 2,828.70
19,953.85 219.76
36184.60 2,219.08
17,979.55 134.00 12,407.05 1,942.33
15,956.25 165.08
14449.10 2,044.52
28,532.95 273.29
51820.40 2,583.76
38,279.05 188.83 146,838.95 2,968.69
47,663.95 229.61 229,416.15 2,976.82
48,262.15 239.31 285100.10 5,081.91
45783.10 264.10 275,291.05 3,236.96
42,485.95 277.40 230957.30 3,955.71
38,252.45 300.09 169577.80 3,517.38
No. transactions
( +
Dept
2
3
4
5
6
7
)( 0 $ # +&%' $&
'-)$
. Diagrams for experiment 1.
Looking at the number of transactions for both departments, it is clear that both simulation
model versions produce a highly similar pattern of results. The number of satisfied customers
is higher across all conditions of both departments for ManPraSim v2. This is as predicted
and interestingly very high levels of satisfaction can be seen in WW in particular. We attribute
this to the higher transaction volumes in WW coupled with our expectations of v2 resulting in
higher levels of customer satisfaction as customers visit the branch on multiple occasions and
commit to polarised opinions. Examining the overall satisfaction level, our hypotheses hold;
results for both departments clearly follow the same trends regardless of simulation model
version. In summary, all results are as predicted.
14
" #
$
With the introduction of a finite population (represented by our customer pool), we had to
rethink the way in which we collect statistics about the satisfaction of customers. Previously,
the life span of a customer has been a single visit to the department. At the end of his or her
visit, the individual’s satisfaction score (direction and value) has been recorded. Now the life
span of a customer lasts the full runtime of the simulation and he or she can be picked
several times to visit the branch during that period. Our previous customer satisfaction
measures now collect some different information: satisfaction scores considering customers’
cumulative satisfaction history. These measures do not reflect individuals’ satisfaction with the
current service experience but instead the satisfaction with the overall service experience
during the lifetime of the agent. Furthermore, they are biased to some extent in that an
indifferent rating quickly shifts into satisfaction or dissatisfaction (arguably, this is realistic,
because most people like to make a judgement one way or the other). Whilst still a valuable
piece of information we would also like to know how the current service is perceived by each
customer. For this reason, we have introduced a set of new performance measures to record
the experience of each customer’s individual visit. These are the same measures as before
but they ignore the customer’s previous experiences. They have been added to ManPraSim
v2 before running the next experiment.
The main purpose of this experiment is to test the sensitivity of the simulation results toward
our new defined customer types. In addition, we use this experiment to test the robustness of
our new experience per visit measures. This experiment should demonstrate how useful
these new measures are.
!
The departmental managers reported that they find mainly solution demanders and service
seekers in the A&TV department while the WW department is mainly visited by shopping
enthusiasts. We have used this real customer split configuration amongst other variations to
configure the customer population in our second experiment. In total seven customer type
configurations are tested for both department types. The composition of each configuration is
given in Table 5. The first five configurations (a e) are extreme customer type settings. These
occur when 100% of the customer population behaves according to the same customer type.
Extreme configurations amplify the impact of differences between the behaviour of different
customer types. For the final two configurations, (f) uses an equal composition of each
customer type and (g) uses a real customer split reflecting that reported by managers working
in the case study departments.
configuration →
customer stereotype ↓
shopping enthusiasts
solution demanders
service seekers
disinterested shoppers
internet shoppers
a
b
c
d
e
f
10000
0
0
0
0
0
10000
0
0
0
0
0
10000
0
0
0
0
0
10000
0
0
0
0
0
10000
2000
2000
2000
2000
2000
g
(A&TV)
500
4000
4000
500
1000
g
(WW)
8000
0
0
2000
0
+0* 2. Definition of customer type configurations.
The customer pool size is maintained at 10,000 for each model configuration, and 20
replications are conducted for every model configuration to enable the application of rigorous
statistical techniques. As we explained previously, we test hypotheses asserting directional
relationships.
For our sensitivity analysis, we are particularly interested in drawing comparisons between
department types and the extreme customer type configurations. The latter two configurations
(f) and (g) are still of interest however these are composite configurations, resulting in a less
significant or ‘dumped down’ effect on department performance measures.
We predict that a greater number of customers leave satisfied following a transaction in WW
than in A&TV because of the higher frequency of transactions in WW. We also expect that (d)
15
and (e) experience relatively low counts, across both departments, due to the low likelihood
that either of these customer types makes a sales transaction.
We hypothesise that more customers leave before receiving normal help in A&TV due to the
longer average service times than in WW, with the exception of (b) and (d) which both have a
low likelihood of customers requesting help and are therefore linked to extremely low
premature customer departures across both A&TV and WW. We predict that configurations
(c) and (e) result in the highest counts on this measure, across both departments, because of
the high service demand placed on normal staff in this department by these two customer
types.
Again, we expect more customers to leave before receiving expert help in A&TV due to longer
service times. This time we do predict a difference for (b) and (d) in this direction given the
importance of expert advice to A&TV customers, but we expect this difference to remain
smaller than under different customer type configurations due to the relatively low
propensities of these customer types to seek advice. Again, we hypothesise that (c) and (e)
result in the highest counts of premature customer departures because these customer types
in particular demand a great deal of advice.
We predict that a significantly greater number of customers leave whilst waiting to pay in
A&TV than in WW across customer types because of the longer average cashier service time,
resulting in longer queues at the till and therefore more customers leaving prematurely whilst
waiting to pay. We hypothesise that configurations (a) and (b) are linked to higher numbers of
customers leaving before paying because these customer types have a high likelihood of
making a purchase. Conversely, we hypothesise that (d) and (e) are linked to lower numbers
of customers leaving before paying because these customer types have a lower likelihood of
making a purchase.
We hypothesise that the absolute number of customers who leave without finding anything is
greater in WW than in A&TV across customer types. This is because even though the
conversion rate in WW is slightly higher, the footfall is much greater in WW (i.e. customers
visit more frequently). We predict that the greatest counts of customers leaving without a
purchase are for (d) and (e) due to the low likelihood of these customer types making a
purchase. We expect that the lowest counts of customers leaving without a purchase are for
(a) and (b) because these customer types have a high propensity for retail purchases.
For customer satisfaction indices, we predict that the measure which allows customers to
remember their past visits and to accumulate an overall satisfaction score, results in more
pronounced effects than those using the other ‘score per visit’ measure. We predict that for
A&TV (c) and (e) are linked to a relatively high proportion of dissatisfied customers, because
these configurations place the greatest service demands on staff and therefore under these
extreme conditions staff cannot always satisfactorily meet the demand for advice. This effect
is much clearer for the ongoing satisfaction scores because customers remember past
dissatisfactory experiences. We predict that (d) result in an extremely low percentage of
dissatisfied customers because it is unlikely that the low demands of this disinterested
customer type do not stretch the staffing constraints to the point where they cannot be met.
To these hypotheses further, we predict that where customer’s current customer satisfaction
is anchored by their previous perceptions of satisfaction; we expect a smaller proportion of
neutral customer satisfaction scores (compared to the experience per visit measure). This
occurs because over time customers will accumulate more experience of the department and
take on more polarised opinions.
"
A series of two way between groups ANOVAs have been used to assess the impact of
customer types on counts of customer leaving satisfied after a transaction with a cashier,
whilst waiting for normal or expert help, whilst waiting to pay, or leaving without finding a
suitable purchase. The descriptive statistics for the experiment are shown in Table 6, followed
by graphs for each performance variable. Where tests indicate significant differences, Tukey’s
post hoc tests have been applied to ascertain exactly where these differences occur for
different customer type configurations. Stacked bar charts have been examined to assess the
16
impact of customer type configuration on two customer satisfaction indices: considering the
customer’s previous experiences and considering the customer’s experience per visit.
Dept.
Customers ...
Configuration
(a)
(b)
(c)
A&TV
(d)
(e)
(f)
(g)
(a)
(b)
(c)
WW
(d)
(e)
(f)
(g)
... leaving happy
Mean
SD
12,231.70 24.42
12,069.30 27.36
11,906.10 44.41
8,271.55 74.36
8,417.00 56.92
11,881.50 38.01
12,055.70 32.19
30,036.90 53.58
29,753.80 44.79
29,311.90 57.11
15,664.85 98.84
22,075.20 166.99
28,247.55 101.86
29,666.25 30.28
... leaving before
normal help
Mean
SD
981.95 66.28
9.05
4.15
6,457.75 134.34
10.70
2.58
6,487.30 151.49
1,002.00 62.62
1,125.05 59.93
12.40
6.24
0.05
0.22
495.15 45.92
0.00
0.00
521.30 44.89
11.40
4.42
4.50
3.27
… leaving before
... without finding
... before paying
expert help
anything
Mean
SD
Mean
SD
Mean
SD
450.50 18.77 12,339.65 121.14 14,863.40 147.70
112.05 11.44 11,892.30 160.10 16,747.35 121.65
569.50 25.47 3,285.95 88.61 18,621.80 117.60
110.75
9.45
293.25 29.75 32,151.00 171.51
557.95 23.36
129.95 12.10 25,301.25 129.65
439.65 15.80 5,010.45 100.73 22,581.35 162.87
457.85 19.81 7,091.40 170.28 20,191.80 152.39
108.60 10.00 11,107.40 232.03 22,548.95 175.17
22.65
4.87 9,336.50 194.48 24,718.45 128.15
252.60 18.62 3,060.70 95.13 30,631.35 161.12
19.85
5.15
1.75
2.10 48,131.15 228.92
248.00 18.18
16.20
5.26 41,022.60 210.83
104.60 12.96 1,908.45 91.21 33,500.85 238.00
80.05 10.45 6,320.85 204.21 27,664.90 195.88
+0* 3. Descriptive Statistics for ANOVA Variables (all to 2 d.p.).
Levene’s test for equality of variances was violated (p<.05) for customers leaving satisfied,
before receiving normal or expert help, and whilst waiting to pay. To address this, ANOVAs
investigating these variables used a more stringent significance level (p<.01).
For customers leaving satisfied, there were significant main effects for both department [F(1,
266) = 3,251,075, p<.001] and customer type configuration [F(6, 266) = 101,910.1, p<.001],
with a significant interaction effect [F(6, 266) = 28,651.93, p<.001]. Post hoc tests revealed
significant differences for every single comparison (p<.001) apart from between (b) and (g)
( =.029). Looking at Figure 5a, there is undisputed support for all of the hypotheses.
Comparing the count of customers leaving before receiving normal help, significant effects
occurred for both department [F(1, 266) = 79,090.42, p<.001] and customer type configuration
[F(6, 266) = 24,058.12, p<.001], plus a significant interaction effect [F(6, 266) = 17,180.46,
p<.001]. Tukey’s tests demonstrated significant differences for all comparisons (p<.001) apart
from three pairings: (a) and (f), (b) and (d), and (c) and (e). All of the predictions have been
borne out (see Figure 5b). In particular, the significantly higher count of customers leaving
prematurely for (c) and (e) is very pronounced.
Results for customers leaving before receiving expert help revealed significant effects for both
department [F(1, 266) = 19,733.82, p<.001] and customer type configuration [F(6, 266) =
3,147.72, p<.001], plus a significant interaction effect [F(6, 266) = 593.71, p<.001]. Post hoc
tests demonstrated significant differences between all but four comparisons (p<.001). Looking
at Figure 5c, the pattern of results is as hypothesized.
For customers leaving whilst waiting to pay, there were significant effects for both department
[F(1, 266) = 5,750.20, p<.001] and customer type configuration [F(6, 266) = 51,939.13,
p<.001], with a significant interaction effect [F(6, 266) = 838.79, p<.001]. Tukey’s tests
revealed significant differences for all comparisons (p<.001) apart from between (d) and (e).
Results are presented in Figure 5d and display consistent support for the hypotheses.
Results for customers leaving before finding anything to buy revealed significant effects for
both department [F(1, 266) = 293,989.90, p<.001] and customer type configuration [F(6, 266)
= 75,977.11, p<.001], plus a significant interaction effect [F(6, 266) = 4,573.90, p<.001]. Post
hoc tests revealed significant differences between all comparisons (p<.001). The pattern of
results is as hypothesized (see Figure 5e).
To investigate the impact of customer types on satisfaction indices, the mean customer
satisfaction ratings have been calculated for each configuration and have been displayed in
100% stacked bar charts. Figure 6 shows customer satisfaction considering the customer’s
previous experiences, and Figure 7 shows customer satisfaction considering the customer’s
experience per visit. There is much differentiation in satisfaction scores across the contrasting
customer type configurations. Evidence supports all hypotheses.
17
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Overall, our results indicate that customer types exert a considerable impact on system
performance as demonstrated by a number of complementary measures. In addition, we have
shown that our new customer satisfaction measures are a useful asset for analysing the
service quality as perceived by the customer at each individual visit. We have presented
evidence demonstrating that our improved customer satisfaction measure produces results
18
closer to what we would expect from the real system, and the increased polarisation of
customers’ satisfaction is a further reason to select carefully which customer types to
implement in the simulation model.
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2
In this paper, we have presented an alternative to the modelling approaches commonly used
for investigating the impact of management practices on retail performance. Simulation
modelling has proven to be a very useful tool for this kind of analysis. In particular, the
combination of DEM for representing the system and ABM for representing the entities inside
the system seems to be the formula to success for building simulation models of dynamic
heterogeneous people centric systems in an OR context.
Our investigations for this paper have focused on the question of what level of abstraction to
use for this kind of simulation models. We have added several features to our initial functional
representation of the real system. Our latest version now includes more complex operational
features to make it a more realistic representation closer to the real retail environment that we
observed and also we have developed our agents further, enhancing their heterogeneity and
decision making capabilities. We have tested some of these new features here by conducting
validation experiments as well as a sensitivity analysis. However, more tests are required to
establish the usefulness of all the enhancements implemented in the latest simulation model.
After the first experiment, we realised that with the introduction of a finite population we also
had to rethink the way in which we collect statistics about the satisfaction of customers. The
existing measures did not reflect individuals’ satisfaction with the current service experience
any more but instead measured the satisfaction with the overall service experience during the
lifetime of the agent. We have added some customer satisfaction measure to evaluate how
the current service is perceived by each customer. These measures have shown to provide
some useful information for analysing the service quality as perceived by the customer during
each visit and results are much closer to what we would expect from the real system.
A big advance has been the implementation of a diverse population by introducing customer
types. These allow a better representation of the different service needs that customers have
in different departments and the different responses to the service provided which is also
apparent in the real world customer population. Through introducing customer types, we have
been able to better define the heterogeneous customer groups who visit the different case
study departments and observe previously hidden differences in the impact of the people
management practices on the different departments. In our second experiment, we have
demonstrated that customer types exert a considerable impact on system performance. It is
therefore important that practitioners invest time and effort in analysing the existing types of
19
customers and their actual proportions and derive an effective way of characterising the
differences between these groups.
We have used likelihoods to buy, wait and request help for defining our customer types.
However, there are many more categories one could use to distinguish different customer
types, e.g. how frequent customers come back or how many items they buy per visit. Much of
the required data could be available from loyalty cards or are collected by the marketing
department of the company. Building on this advance is the introduction of a finite population
with an enduring memory of customers’ previous shopping experiences for each individual
agent. This allows the agents to change their behaviour (e.g. their patience level) according to
their previous experiences. These two enhancements enable us for the first time to study
long term effects of managerial decisions on specific customer groups with our simulation
model, which opens up a new range of problem scenarios that can be investigated. This is
particularly important as many managerial decisions are developed for the long term (to
encourage trust and loyalty from both staff and customers) and are unlikely to demonstrate
their full potential after just a single visit of an individual customer.
Overall, we can affirm that the upgrades we have introduced and tested so far are all useful
assets to the simulation model. They allow us to obtain a broader understanding of the
situation and to investigate many issues and questions we could not previously investigate as
for example long term effects of people management practices on specific customer groups.
A major limitation in ManPraSim v2 is the absence of consideration of staff proactiveness.
What we have actually observed during our case study and what is also encouraged by the
guidelines for staff of the case study company is that employees act proactively, for example
by approaching customers within a set period of time, or opening tills when queues grow
beyond a defined level. In addition, if we want to use real staffing data in order to enhance the
predictive capabilities of our simulation model relative to the real system, we need to model
how staff allocate their tasks between competing activities rather than focusing on one type of
work. Considering these features will allow us to increase the grade of realism to match the
behaviour of the actors in the model better to those in the real system. This will also allow us
to achieve a better match when comparing the system performance measures (e.g.
transactions or staff utilisation) between our simulation model and the real system. Luckily,
ABM is a technique that supports the modelling of proactive agent behaviour. First however,
we need to test our remaining enhancements by conducting more sensitivity analyses, to see
if these are useful assets or not.
Once these limitations have been eradicated, we would like to conduct some more
fundamental investigations. As we stated earlier the most interesting system outcomes evolve
over time and many of the goals of a retail business (e.g. service standards) form part of a
long term strategy. It would be interesting to see under which circumstances the demand for
services varies in an unplanned fashion and how well staff can cope with it. A common
application area for ABM is modelling the diffusion of innovations in social networks
(Bonabeau, 2002; Garcia, 2005; Janssen and Jager, 2002). We would like to use the ideas
developed here and transfer them into a service context to model diffusion of customer
experiences in form of word of mouth networks. With our enhanced agents, we are now in the
position to investigate this kind of issues.
Finally, we are interested in exploring other ways of implementing the agent decision making
process. It has been argued that modelling the autonomous internal decision making logic of
customers is a crucial element for simulation models of consumer behaviour (Jager, 2007). It
would be interesting to compare such an approach to the probabilistic one we have currently
in place, in particular as no such study has been found in the literature.
In conclusion, we can say that the multidisciplinary of our team has helped us to gain new
insight into the behaviour of staff and customers retail organisations. The main benefit from
adopting this approach is improved understanding of, and debate about, a problem domain.
The very nature of the methods involved forces researchers to be explicit about the rules
underlying behaviour and to think in new ways about them. As a result, we have brought work
psychology and simulation modelling together to form a new and exciting research area.
20
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