The first wildfire case to be heard by a Maui jury is to be determined by a coin toss next week.

Insurance losses related to the Maui wildfires continued to rise through March, as the estimated amount rose to $3.08 billion, according to the Hawaii Insurance Division. Meanwhile, insurers had paid $2.09 billion in claims as of March 31, according to data from more than 200 insurers. 

The data from Hawaii’s insurance regulator includes only part of the damages residents and business owners have suffered because of the fires that destroyed much of Lahaina in August. The insurance data doesn’t reflect monetary damages suffered by people who were underinsured, for instance, or not insured at all. 

Still, the numbers provide a benchmark, supporting estimates that damages will likely total more than $5 billion. The numbers indicate the losses keep growing: $2.09 billion paid out as of March was twice the $1 billion paid out at the end of November.

“My thoughts are this is the absolute minimum that the claims will be,” said Ed Neiger of the law firm ASK LLP, who represents Lahaina fire victims. Many victims haven’t even filed suit yet, he said.

“This just shows that the number can be well in excess of $5 billion,” he said. 

Residential property losses make up most of the estimated losses, totaling $1.62 billion.

Estimated commercial insurance losses were expected to total $1.07 billion as of March 31. Estimated business interruption losses were estimated to total $144 million.

The data comes out as plaintiffs' lawyers and defendants discuss settlements through mediation ahead of trials scheduled to start in six months.

In an order issued earlier this month, Hawaii Circuit Court Judge Peter Cahill identified two possible cases to be the first heard by a Maui jury: a wrongful death suit brought by the survivors of Terri Elaine Thomas and a property damage suit brought by a group of plaintiffs led by Darlene Gomes. Both suits name Hawaiian Electric Industries and subsidiaries as defendants. 

On May 24, Cahill has scheduled a hearing to determine which of the two cases will be the first to be heard. Cahill’s selection method: “The trial order for cases 2CV-23-225 and 2CCV-23-230 shall be picked by coin toss,” the order says.

Civil Beat’s coverage of Maui County is supported in part by a grant from the Nuestro Futuro Foundation.

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