Two-thirds of registered voters say Trump’s hush money charges are serious
Reuters/Ipsos poll finds one-quarter of potential Trump voters say they would not vote for him if he was serving time in prison
Washington, DC, April 10, 2024 — Ahead of former President Donald Trump’s trial next week, the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that nearly two-thirds of registered voters (64%) say the charges—for allegedly falsifying business records around hush money to Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal during the 2016 presidential election—are serious, including 36% who say they are very serious. Registered voters share similar concerns around the other three criminal charges against Trump, including allegedly soliciting election fraud, pressuring Georgia state officials to overturn the presidential election, and illegally removing classified documents from the White House and keeping them at a private home after leaving office. About seven in ten say each of these additional charges is serious, and at least half say each charge is very serious.
Beyond the criminal charges against Trump, two-thirds of Americans say it is risky for Trump to become president or receive classified national security briefings with $500 million in legal judgments against him in his New York civil fraud case (67% and 66%, respectively). In both cases, nearly half of Americans say each of these situations is very risky (48% and 46%, respectively). These sentiments are split along party lines. Most Democrats and most independents say these situations would be risky; meanwhile, about one-third of Republicans say it is risky for Trump to become president or receive classified national security briefings with $500 million in legal judgments against him (36% and 35%, respectively).
When it comes to the 2024 presidential election, 41% of registered voters say that they would vote for President Joe Biden, and 37% of registered voters say they would vote for Donald Trump if the election was held today. This reading is similar to that from March 2024, when 39% of registered voters said they would vote for Biden and 38% said they would vote for Trump.
Despite the current dead heat between Biden and Trump on the 2024 ballot, this poll finds that potential felony conviction(s) by a jury or prison time may impact vote share this November. Among those who say they would vote for Trump if the election was held today, 13% say they would not vote for him if he was convicted of a felony by a jury before the election, and 25% say they would not vote for him if he was serving time in prison at the time of the election. Among Republicans as a whole, 24% say they would not vote for him if he was convicted of a felony crime by a jury, and 37% say they would not vote for him if he was serving time in prison at the time of the election.
For more information about this study, please click here.
About the Study
This Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted April 4-8, 2024 using the probability-based KnowledgePanel®. This poll is based on a representative probability sample of 1,021 general population adults age 18 or older in the United States. The sample includes 291 Democrats, 290 Republicans, and 317 Independents. One respondent was removed from the data because they refused to answer all questions.
The margin of sampling error for this study is plus or minus 3.2 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, for results based on the entire sample of adults. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1.10. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on other sub-samples. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. As a result, percentages in a given table column may total slightly higher or lower than 100%. In questions that permit multiple responses, columns may total substantially more than 100%, depending on the number of different responses offered by each respondent. The poll also has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points for registered voters, plus or minus 5.9 percentage points for Democrats, plus or minus 5.9 percentage points for Republicans, and plus or minus 5.6 percentage points for independents. The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which is 1.09 among registered voters,1.05 among Democrats, 1.04 among Republicans, and 1.05 among independents.
The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established online probability-based panel that is representative of the adult U.S. population. Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS – a database with full coverage of all delivery points in the US. Households invited to join the panel are randomly selected from all available households in the U.S. Persons in the sampled households are invited to join and participate in the panel. Those selected who do not already have internet access are provided a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member. Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methodologies, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population.
The data for the total sample were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race/ethnicity, Census region, education, household income, metropolitan status, and political party identification. The demographic benchmarks came from the 2023 March Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS). Political Party Benchmarks came from high quality polling. More details about the weighting benchmarks for this study can be found below:
- Gender (Male, Female) by Age (18–29, 30–44, 45–59, and 60+)
- Race/Hispanic Ethnicity (White Non-Hispanic, Black Non-Hispanic, Other or 2+ Races Non-Hispanic, Hispanic)
- Education (High School graduate or less, Some College, Bachelors and beyond)
- Census Region (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)
- Metropolitan status (Metro, non-Metro)
- Household Income (Under $25,000, $25,000-$49,999, $50,000-$74,999, $75,000-$99,999, $100,000-$149,999, $150,000+)
- Political party (Republican, Democrat, Independent, Other/Not Asked/Skipped)
For more information on this news release, please contact:
Chris Jackson
Senior Vice President, US
Public Affairs
+1 202 420-2025
Annaleise Azevedo Lohr
Director, U.S.
Public Affairs
About Ipsos
Ipsos is one of the largest market research and polling companies globally, operating in 90 markets and employing over 18,000 people.
Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees. Our 75 solutions are based on primary data from our surveys, social media monitoring, and qualitative or observational techniques.
Our tagline "Game Changers" sums up our ambition to help our 5,000 customers move confidently through a rapidly changing world.
Founded in France in 1975, Ipsos has been listed on the Euronext Paris since July 1, 1999. The company is part of the SBF 120 and Mid-60 indices and is eligible for the Deferred Settlement Service (SRD).ISIN code FR0000073298, Reuters ISOS.PA, Bloomberg IPS:FP www.ipsos.com