The war in Ukraine and the squeeze on Big Tech have rarely been omitted from any conversations about our economic outlook in recent months. Both are affecting people’s lives, in very different ways, and both feel quite close to home.
A lot farther from home are the mass protests in China over its zero-Covid policy – but what is happening in China will potentially have a significant impact on Ireland.
Central Bank of Ireland Governor Gabriel Makhlouf told me an interview late last month (before the protests had really gained momentum) that what happens in China really matters in Ireland.
“This is quite an important variable, which people tend to miss out – but what’s happening in the Chinese economy is quite important for us. And their zero-Covid policy acts as a brake to global growth, which impacts on the euro area and on us.”
He added that while the war in Ukraine is one uncertainty, Chinese health policy is another area which plays into Ireland’s economic outlook.
China’s president Xi Jinping’s tough zero-Covid policy now looks like a mistake, though getting a population of 1.4 billion people through a pandemic was never going to happen without immense challenges.
As we in Ireland struggle to get restaurant bookings in December and look back in disbelief at recent Christmas lockdowns, many parts of China are still living under the most rigid restrictions.
This has hampered the production of goods which the rest of the world has come to depend on, while domestic demand has been subdued as a result.
The South China Morning Post reported last week that “academics and government advisers say trillions of yuan worth of China’s GDP appears to have been lost this year, due to Beijing’s disruptive virus control policy.”
The length of time of the Covid restrictions have endured, in addition to the extent of lockdowns once Covid cases are identified, have led to protests throughout China. While initially triggered by a fire in an apartment block in the western Xinjiang region that killed 10 people – where the rescue service were hamstrung by Covid restrictions – the protests have become increasingly political.
Scenes such as these have not been seen since the 1989 protests in Tianamen Square.
These protests have been extraordinary for a range of reasons, not the least of which has been the intensification of public surveillance under Xi Jinping. Also, the zero-Covid policy has been very much led by the president and the ruling communist party.
So unlike other pockets of civil unrest, the discontent can not be conveniently blamed on local officials.
Seasoned observers of Chinese politics have also been taken aback by the willingness of some protesters to name Xi Jinping in their chants. Repercussions are a huge risk for those identified by the Chinese authorities.
As for China’s zero-Covid policy?
There are signs in recent days authorities will ease some restrictions, despite high daily case numbers.
However, in a vast country with relatively low vaccination levels, unwinding zero Covid will be a precarious balancing act – and the implications for the world economy is yet unknown.
Siún Ní Rathallaigh, the new chairwoman of RTÉ, will bring a huge depth of experience to the national broadcaster.
Having grown up in Donegal, she has worked in several strands on the Irish media. One of her early jobs was in the newspaper industry, working at the Sunday Tribune.
In the early days of TG4, she played a key role and took up a finance role at the station, later becoming chair of the TG4 board. She later become CEO of Tyrone Productions, owned by her RTÉ predecessor Moya Doherty and John McColgan, before going on to set up her own production firm.
In an interview with the Sunday Independent in 2020, she spoke about her entrepreneurial streak. “I have no fear of jumping in,” she said. “I would be careful, of course – but I wouldn’t necessarily hold back.”
She also said that every time a big movie or TV production comes together and gets made, it’s as though there is a little bit of magic at work.
“Every film or piece of work that gets made is a perfect storm. It’s like magic that it gets to happen. Because everything has to align.”
The former chief executive of Ardmore and Troy Studios will no doubt be hoping that things finally align for RTÉ, which has been seeking an overhaul of licence fee collection for many years.
