Farmers the world over have a reputation for being robust and resilient. I admire our farmers in Ireland who cope with issues on a day-to-day basis such as price fluctuation, changing weather patterns, new legislation, labour scarcity, to name just a few.
owever, on a recent trip to Zimbabwe, where commercial (white) farmers were forcibly removed from their land in the 2000s, the definition of ‘robust and resilient’ is elevated to a much higher level.
The commercial farmers who remain have no title to the land they farm, cannot get bank finance and have limited agribusiness service back-up, yet they battle on and survive.
When Ireland gained independence from Britain in 1921 there were over 360,000 farmers in the state; 100 years later there are around 140,000. So we have lost over six farmers a day since the foundation of the state.
If we were to keep going at this rate there would be no farmers in Ireland by 2085.
What will happen in the next 100 years?
There are many categories of farmer: arable, beef, sheep, dairy, pig, poultry and forestry; then there are big farmers and small farmers; full-time and part-time; organic and conventional; grass-based or confinement; irrigated or non-irrigated; family or factory… the list goes on.
For me the two most relevant categories to examine when projecting the future of Irish farming are full-time commercial farmers, and hobby/part-time farmers.
What factors will influence the survival of today’s 140,000 farmers in our state over the next 100 years?
Love of the land
Real farmers have an innate love of the land. John B Keane’s portrayal of the Bull McCabe in the play The Field typifies this type of farmer.
Pride in the land and the love of farming surpasses all other reasons to live. These emotions have been handed from generation to generation on many Irish holdings and have become tradition, often boosted by the fear or failure or keeping up with the neighbours.
If these farmers are steered in the right direction there will be no fear for their survival; it will not matter which enterprise they farm, whether they are big or small, full-time or part-time — they will endure, and many will prosper.
Successors
Succession is affecting the survival of many farm businesses in Ireland.
The majority of family farmers are sole traders, so for a farm business to survive, it is handed onto the next generation, which traditionally was the eldest son.
Nowadays I often meet farmers running a full-time, commercially viable farm business, but none of their children or extended family are interested in taking over.
Of course they all have their eye on inheriting the land, but is this a burden or a blessing to the parents?
To me it is neither: if the children are interested great, embrace it and decide who will continue the family business; but equally, if none of the family interested, plan the winding-down of the business or continuing it by entering a partnership with a third party.
Either way, successors or the lack of will have a major influence on the number of farmers into the future.
Profitability
Profit is king? Or is it not all about money?
Which popular saying is true when it comes to the survival of Irish farm businesses?
In fact, both are relevant. Of course the full-time commercial farmers need profit to survive and prosper.
Dairy farmers traditionally have been able to generate good net profit per hectare, excluding direct payments.
Our climate and low-cost of production are up there with the best in the world.
The reality is you don’t have to be a very good dairy farmer to survive in Ireland: the average 100-cow dairy herd will generate a net profit of over €80,000 per
annum. In contrast the other enterprises struggle to generate profit margins, especially if direct payments are diminished or removed.
This is where the hobby farmer comes into play: the family beef, sheep, arable or small dairy enterprise supplemented with a good off-farm job by one or both spouses can provide a viable and enjoyable lifestyle choice.
Good motorways and the roll-out of better broadband and remote working will surely augment such lifestyle choices and boost the survival of low-margin but labour-efficient farm businesses.
Tax-efficient, subsidised hobby farming maximising the income and minimising the labour will work for these farmers.
Education, research, training and advice
In Ireland farmers have an embarrassment of riches when it comes to education, research, training and advice. This gives us an added edge when it comes to the survival of farm businesses into the future.
In other countries farm businesses fail due to a lack of advice and guidance into systems and methods of farming. We have this information in abundance, with the whole industry joined from farm to fork.
Overall, one thing we know for sure is that regardless of how many obstacles are presented along the way, farmers will rise to the challenge and evolve to cope, survive and even prosper.
Mike Brady is an agricultural consultant and managing director at Brady Group, Cork
