Republican mid-term victory will pave the way for Donald Trump’s return

Today the mid-term elections in the US take place and they will be dominated by someone whose name is not on any ballot.

The super-sized shadow of Donald Trump is everywhere. Even if he is not always visible he is always present. If, as many are predicting, the political pendulum swings the way of Republicans, both House and Senate could be in their grasp. Such an eventuality would be pounced on by Mr Trump and much of his party as a ringing endorsement for a return to the ring in a no-holds-barred bout to take the White House in 2024.

How such a contest would go in a deeply divided United States is a subject of heated debate.

The signs of strain in America’s democratic system were signalled last week by Joe Biden who feared candidates who refuse to accept the results could set the nation on a “path to chaos”.

His remarks were set against a background of a growing number of major Republican candidates saying they may follow in Mr Trump’s footsteps and refuse to concede should they lose.

“It’s unprecedented. It’s unlawful. And it is un-American,” Mr Biden said. “As I’ve said before, you can’t love your country only when you win,” he added. Having been warned off declaring so far, Mr Trump could only tantalise followers saying: “I’ll very, very, very probably...” run.

But there seems to be no “probably” about it, given his ubiquity flying all over the country to either endorse or trash-talk candidates.

Most recognise that he’s back and will make official his entrance to the race next Monday.

Almost two years have lapsed since the Capitol uprising, and a whole world of legal troubles, but so far as Mr Trump and his entourage are concerned, nothing has changed. They see him as the unblemished saviour of their country.

And perhaps that is why there is such trepidation surrounding the vote. For the world has indeed changed, and in many ways for the worst.

Addressing COP27 yesterday the UN chief could not have been more graphic. The planet is on “a highway to climate hell with our foot on the accelerator,’’ said Antonio Guterres. “Co-operate or perish,” he warned world leaders.

It ought not be forgotten that Mr Trump withdrew the US from the Paris Climate Agreement. The war in Ukraine has also plunged world peace into danger and altered the political climate, equally perilously.

As most of the rest of the world gave Vladimir Putin the cold shoulder for his brutal and illegal invasion, Mr Trump was still prepared to offer him praise: “Is Putin smart? Yes, Putin was smart. And I actually thought he was going to be negotiating. I said, ‘That’s a hell of a way to negotiate, put 200,000 soldiers on the border’.” He added that Putin made a “big mistake,” but that “it looked like a great negotiation”.

So should the final polls reveal a very good night for Republicans, those to whom Mr Trump doled out 200-plus endorsements, may well be justifiably exultant. But it’s just as understandable why many others may feel far less than elated.