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Stocks - Investing and trading for all

r/stocks

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Posted by1 month ago
Wholesome3
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Posted by2 days ago
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Posted by19 hours ago

This quote is from his 1994 lecture. It's available on YouTube if you search "Peter Lynch 1994 Lecture". I can't post the link here since this sub doesn't seem to allow YouTube links. The sentence in the title is at around 15:50 in the video posted by GiraffeValue.

The video is quite long and the image quality isn't good due to the age, but I think lots of his advice are timeless and would be helpful for investors seasoned and new. I highly recommend going through the whole lecture since it's very informative and quite funny.

His words leading up to this quote:

First they tried to predict the stock market. This is a total waste of time. No one can predict the stock market. Then they tried to predict interest rate. If anybody can predict interest rate right 3 times in a row, they would be a billionaire, and there ain't lots of billionaire on the planet. No one can predict the economy. In 1982 we have 20% prime rate with double-digit inflation and double-digit unemployment. I don't remember anybody telling me in 1981 about it. I read and study a lot and I don't remember anybody telling me we're gonna have the worst recession since depression. What I'm trying to tell you is that it would be very useful to know what the stock market are gonna do. It'd be terrific to know the Dow Jones' average a year from now would be X, that we're gonna have a full-scale recession and the interest rate gonna be 12%. That's useful stuff. You'd never know it though. You just don't get to learn it.

Philip Fisher, another very successful investor and the author of some great investing books also held similar belief:

Postponing an attractive purchase because of fear of what the general market might do will, over the years, prove very costly. This is because the investor is ignoring a powerful influence about which he has positive knowledge through fear about a less powerful force about which, in the present state of human knowledge, he and everyone else is largely guessing. (Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits, Ch.6)

My 2 cents:

We've been seeing lots of posts saying "Don't fight the feds." or "The economy's gonna be a lot worse." recently. These people could be right this time, but if they have the ability to consistently predict the market, they would be making millions and enjoying their life, not posting on reddit. Even the Feds themselves failed to predict the economy considering how many time they revised their plan for the past year. The best course of action would be keeping DCA into index funds if you're a boglehead and keep buying stocks of companies you believed in at reasonable valuation if you're a stock picker.

For stock pickers, Philip Fisher also wrote about his criteria of a resilient business:

  1. The product or service provided by the company is recognized by the customer as being very important for the proper conduct of their activities.

  2. Inferior or malfunctioning product/ service would cause serious problems for the customer.

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Posted by9 hours ago

When the market turns around is anyone's guess. If I had to speculate I say we have a slight bounce in the coming weeks. I say this because it is common knowledge that October-January are the best months in the stock market if you look at history. Likewise, after the midterms in the second year of a president's term we tend to do well in the stock market. The reasoning behind this is because the stock market likes to have certainty on what policies will be approved or denied in the future. Will I be buying during this false bounce? Yes, I will be buying up a little into TQQQ to swing trade over the course of a few days here and there, selling once I make a 12% gain in under 4 days.

Now for the meat and potatoes. What will you be buying up when the news eventually comes out that we are no longer having severe inflation problems? The perfect scenario would be Jerome Powell announces "we are no longer going to remain hawkish, inflation is now under control ..." and the rest will be history. Here is a breakdown of my portfolio picks when that day comes, which remember could be in a few months or in 2024, hell it could even be in 2026 for all I know. Right now my portfolio is about 95% cash. I will breakdown and explain each of these holdings:

25% of portfolio will be in VOO - VOO is the lazy, set it and forget it ETF. It is not only great for long term growth, it also pays a nice dividend yield of 1.77%.

20% of portfolio will be in SCHD - this is another good ETF that is good for growth and has an excellent 3.73%.

10% of portfolio will be in GOOG - It's google, need I say more?

10% of portfolio will be in TSLA - It's Tesla. They are the future.

8% of portfolio will be in METV - This is a Metaverse ETF.

8% of portfolio will be in SOFI - The future of banking. Millenials and Gen Z love this company.

7% of portfolio will be in TQQQ at the start of the rally, and will be swung trade every few days to make a profit.

2% of portfolio will be in CCL - I see Carnival Corporation doing well long term. In fact I almost want to buy and hold some after this recent sell off a few days ago.

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