The information in the term structure

We examine time-varying pricing of risk in bond futures excess returns. We provide evidence that the predictability is significantly dynamic and increases during crisis period. We detect realized volatility and realized kurtosis to carry valuable information for returns on the U.S. market which is not priced in traditional predictors. Whereas the realized volatility reveals to have negative effect on next-day excess returns, effect of realized kurtosis is switching from positive effect in crisis to negative values in calm periods.

In this paper, we apply a novel econometric approach joint with an exhaustive revision of the main events in the history of US monetary policy in order to check the effectiveness of monetary policy focused on interest rates. Unlike the traditional cointegration approach, this new methodology allows us to break with the rigidity of traditional approaches in favour of letting the series be cointegrated, and the spread is able to follow a long-memory process; i.e., it does not necessarily need to be I(0) and also rejects the assumption that interest rates could follow the dichotomy I(0)/I(1). To the best of our knowledge, this is one of the first applications of the Fractionally Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive (FCVAR) model (Johansen and Nielsen (2012) and Nielsen and Popiel (2016)). Aiming to achieve this goal, we use two databases, i.e., the Jordà-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database and Shiller’s database. Our results cannot reject the Expectations Hypothesis of Term Structure in this time period, and more importantly, we also find that the long-term rate drives the long-run relationship, contributing to the total proportion to the common trend; the persistence of the spread shows us effective control power over interest rates by the Fed.

In this paper, we consider the possibility that a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model could serve as a novel empirical tool for examining the US term structure of interest rates. This econometric approach allows one to test the existence of a long-run relationship between short- and long-term interest rates and spread persistence together. As one of the main contributions of this paper, we elaborate on new scenarios of the degree of noncontemplative EHTS fulfillment. Monthly time series are constructed with nine different maturities of interest rates for the period of 1993–2018. The results obtained contribute new scenarios not previously presented in the literature. We also find that the persistence of spread is the stronger the larger the difference in maturity is between considered interest rates, revealing a long memory process. Importantly, as the main implication of our study, we find that this persistence implies a gradual loss of controlling power over interest rates by FED.

We develop a new empirical approach to term structure analysis that allows testing for time-varying risk premiums and arbitrage opportunities in models with both unobservable factors and factors identified as the innovations to observed macroeconomic variables. Factors can play double roles as both covariance-generating common shocks driving yields and determinants of market prices of risk in cross-sectional pricing. The evidence favors time-varying risk prices significantly related to the second Stock–Watson principal component of macroeconomic variables and to changes in the industrial production index. Our preferred specification includes these two observable and two unobservable factors, with the no-arbitrage condition imposed.

Against the backdrop of the Great Recession, investigating the differences in institutional frameworks became important to explain the heterogeneity in the market perception about the credit quality and default risk of banks in different countries. Using data for 118 banks of 30 countries over the period 2004–2011, we find that an improvement of the quality of economic and legal institutions can help in reducing banks' CDS spreads, as banks operating in countries where the regulatory quality is stronger tend to be less affected by spikes in financial stress of 2008–2009. Considering a series of indicators of the financial structure of the banking system, our results reveal that more concentration of the banking sector, a stronger presence of foreign banks, a deterioration of the banking sector health or the lack of alternative means of finance is associated with higher CDS spreads of banks. We also show that the dynamics of bank CDS spreads accrue to: (i) the quality of banks’ balance sheet; (ii) (il)liquidity of banks’ assets; (iii) how profitable banks’ operations are; and (iv) the banks’ leverage ratios. Finally, higher CDS spreads of banks tend to be associated with periods of high inflation and low GDP growth.