Disney film arrived in theaters and on Disney+ amid Scarlett Johansson’s lawsuit and rising COVID-19 numbers
Disney’s “Jungle Cruise,” the latest film to get an experimental hybrid release in theaters and on Disney+’s “Premier Access” service, had an opening weekend that wasvery much a mixed blessing.
On the one hand, the film’s $34 million opening in domestic theaters was above projections for a $25 million start, and the film’s $30 million global revenue from premium paid streaming shows that Disney is getting some traction with Disney+ subscribers willing to pay extra to see new movies at home. But with a $200 million budget, “Jungle Cruise” seems unlikely to yield any profit for Disney from its initial run.
We did see some box office trends continue to play out. Here are five takeaways from this weekend:
Scarlett Johansson, the star of “Black Widow,” has joined the National Association of Theater Owners in voicing frustration over Disney’s decision to release tentpole movies like hers in theaters and paid streaming, suing Disney last week on claims that the hybrid release model for “Black Widow” cost her as much as $50 million in box office-related bonuses.
But despite the legal troubles and messy headlines, Disney is standing behind its release strategy, continuing to stress the importance of remaining flexible as COVID-19 has stretched out this current period of uncertainty at the global box office. Paid streaming accounted for 27.5% of the global opening weekend of “Black Widow,” and made up at least one-third of global grosses for “Jungle Cruise.”
“’Jungle Cruise’ is the perfect summer adventure film, bringing a beloved theme park attraction to both the big screen and living rooms in a way that only Disney can,” Disney said in a statement on Sunday. “We remain focused on offering consumer choice during these unprecedented times, and it is clear that fans and families value the ability to make decisions on how they prefer to enjoy Disney’s best-in-class storytelling.”
2. Tentpoles like “Jungle Cruise” are still finding it tough going in theaters.
Subscription and paid streaming revenue from Disney+ may change the metrics of profitability for “Jungle Cruise,” but it is still a $200 million blockbuster with a high bar to clear to break out of the red. Were it not for the opaque nature of the hybrid release and the fact that the studio pockets more of premium streaming revenue than of ticket sales, the numbers for “Jungle Cruise” would have assuredly left analysts and rival studios deeming it an unqualified disappointment.
“In normal times, a film like this would need a global opening of at least $100 million to really having a chance at success,” Comscore analyst Paul Dergarabedian said. “But in this current environment, I think the numbers that it got from theaters and Disney+ were probably the best it could have hoped for.”
3. Theme park rides may not be surefire IP for big movies.
While “Jungle Cruise” received positive word-of-mouth for audiences, a film based on a classic Disneyland ride may not have had enough of a hook to get casual audiences interested — even if COVID-19 wasn’t a factor.
Back in 2003, Disney was able to turn a Disneyland ride into a hit franchise with the Johnny Depp-led “Pirates of the Caribbean,” a blockbuster that led to four sequels so far, including 2017’s “Dead Men Tell No Tales.” But other attempts to turn theme-park rides into movies have mostly yielded box office duds — from 2002’s “Country Bears” ($17 million domestic) to Eddie Murphy’s 2003 “The Haunted Mansion” ($75.8 million) to George Clooney’s 2015 “Tomorrowland” ($93.4 million).
The Jungle Cruise ride at the Anaheim theme park doesn’t have as much of a fan base beyond hardcore Disney fans as a ride with a catchy theme tune. And without the emotional attachment of the ride to hook moviegoers, the film may just be a well-received adventure film with two well-known leading actors, the sort of film that would have been a surefire formula for a respectable hit in decades past — at a more modest budget.
4. Dwayne Johnson is a bankable star — in the right role.
Matt Damon took some heat from Marvel fans this weekend when he argued that characters and IP have become more important to audiences than movie stars, saying that “Iron Man” would have been just as successful if another actor had played Tony Stark instead of Robert Downey Jr. Fans rushed to RDJ’s defense, praising his performance.
In a way, “Jungle Cruise” is proving both Damon and the fans right. Dwayne Johnson is undoubtedly one of the most popular actors in Hollywood, commanding a massive fan base and a powerful social media presence he uses to promote his projects. But it is also true that his biggest hits of the past decade have been when he’s attached to equally big franchises, namely the “Fast & Furious” films.
Through the 2010s, the only films starring Johnson that grossed over $500 million worldwide were “F&F” films – led by “Furious 7” with $1.5 billion – as well as the two “Jumanji” films, which combined for just over $1.7 billion. The only film above that mark that wasn’t based on a preexisting brand was “Moana,” a film with the Disney Animation name attached that grossed $635.6 million.
By contrast, recent Johnson films without major IP or name-brand studio attachment include 2018 hits “Rampage” and “Skyscraper” which grossed $326.9 million and $236.4 million respectively. Moviegoers still value big-name stars like Johnson, but that alone isn’t going to be enough to support a tentpole anymore. The power of Johnson’s draw, when combined with equally big IP, will likely be seen again next summer when he ventures into the world of superhero movies with the DC tentpole “Black Adam.”
5. Families remain key to the hybrid release debate.
Though it was marketed as a four-quadrant film, families made up a good chunk of the theatrical audience for “Jungle Cruise.” Demographics data showed that around 40% of the opening weekend audience consisted of families, providing a level of support that allowed the film to open at around the same level as Warner Bros.’ “Space Jam: A New Legacy” earlier in July
Despite rising COVID-19 cases and the lack of availability of the vaccine for children under 12, this proves there’s a substantial number of family moviegoers comfortable with coming back to theaters. But at the same time, families have long been believed as key the success of paid streaming, providing a cheaper alternative to a trip out to the theater even at the $30 price point that Disney+ has sold its premium titles.
For Disney and Warner Bros., which have led the charge on hybrid releases this year, films like “Space Jam: A New Legacy” and Disney/Pixar’s “Luca” have been key elements of this releasing experiment because of their appeal to families. “Jungle Cruise” shows that trend is going to continue heading into the fall.
With each passing week, it is becoming more apparent that studios will have to make some tough decisions about what was supposed to be a loaded September/October film slate. While some smaller films that can turn a profit from domestic box office should be safe, bigger and pricier films that rely on overseas revenue may face a global market still grappling with COVID-19.
COVID cases in Mexico have returned to the peaks seen during the winter, especially in vacation spots like Cancun. Amid the Olympics, Japan’s state of emergency has been extended from Tokyo to three surrounding prefectures as well as Osaka; and Italy is set to join France in requiring proof of vaccination to enter theaters.
Next weekend’s release of “The Suicide Squad,” a Warner/DC Comics film that on paper should have a big draw, could reveal more about how much of an appetite for moviegoing there currently is amidst rising COVID cases. Industry execs are still optimistic, and IMAX CEO Rich Gelfond said during an earnings call last week that he remains confident that case rates will not affect moviegoing interest among younger, vaccinated moviegoers, who have been the core of the global box office recovery so far.
But it also wouldn’t be surprising if some films either see release dates postponed or shuffled into a hybrid release. Paramount has already pulled “Clifford the Big Red Dog” from its September release slot, and while that’s not a tentpole film, big decisions lie ahead for other films like Disney/Marvel’s “Shang-Chi” and MGM’s James Bond film “No Time to Die,” both of which are currently set for theatrical-exclusive release this fall.
Jeremy Fuster
Box Office Reporter • jeremy.fuster@thewrap.com • Twitter: @jeremyfuster