A stuttering recovery in global trade could hinge on whether the electronics industry rebound survives through U.S. bans on Chinese technology and a waning of the home-office equipment splurge.
Taiwan and South Korea exports gauges are two positive signs that the critical industry is keeping its footing, Bloomberg’s Trade Tracker shows. Taiwan’s July shipments notched a rare above-average reading on the dashboard, while Korea’s exports for the first 20 days of August climbed into the “normal” range.
While most of the 10 gauges remain below their long-term average midpoint, the overall picture continues to claw its way back from the abysmal readings seen in early 2020.
A more solid recovery could be tentative, though, with sentiment measures showing more relief than joy and July port data showing very mixed readings on goods flows. Fresh virus outbreaks, uneven government mobility restrictions, and geopolitical tensions ahead of the U.S. elections in November provide more hurdles to a smooth healing path.
We’ve selected measures across shipping, sentiment and export volumes to watch for signs of stress amid the tensions. For the clearest indication, we measured how far each gauge is from historic norms.