The Czech Republic is to take the first steps towards easing its coronavirus restrictions on Monday, after officials declared that the Covid-19 outbreak there had been brought under control.
The country’s coronavirus numbers, like those in most of central Europe, are much lower than those further west, partly because of the early implementation of strict lockdown measures.
Now the burning question for many central and eastern European countries is how fast to loosen the restrictions. Some policymakers believe that extreme caution is required to avoid undoing the positive work and provoking a fresh outbreak. Others point to the increasing economic costs of lockdown measures and say the low number of cases and deaths should allow a swift reopening, perhaps combined with continued closed borders to prevent the virus arriving from outside.
“The numbers look good so far, but even the governments are not sure if there could be a surge ahead,” said Milan Nič, an expert with the Berlin-based German Council for Foreign Relations.
The Czech health minister, Adam Vojtěch, announced last week that the country’s tough approach had prevented the uncontrolled spread of the disease and justified a cautious lifting of restrictions. The five-stage plan will begin on Monday with farmers’ markets, car dealerships and some other small businesses allowed to reopen for the first time since one of the earliest lockdowns in Europe was introduced on 12 March.
In the final stage, tentatively scheduled for 8 June, all businesses would be allowed to reopen, including bars, cafes, restaurants and hotels. However, Vojtěch warned people against being lulled into a sense of false security and said officials would reimpose restrictions if there was a sudden surge in cases.
As of Sunday morning, the country had recorded 6,657 cases and 181 deaths. Neighbouring Slovakia had just 1,161 cases and 12 deaths, making it one of the least affected countries in Europe.
There may be several reasons for the low numbers, but the decisive one seems to be a speedy move to enforce lockdown measures. Border closures and restrictions on movement and gatherings were introduced much earlier than in countries further west. A concerted effort to persuade citizens in both the Czech Republic and Slovakia to wear face masks may also have helped.
There has been criticism of the slow pace of moves to ease the lockdown, particularly among those in the service and tourism sector.
“The number of cases has dropped significantly, but still the government is talking about opening most stores only in June, with quite a few restrictions remaining through the summer, including travel bans and significant limits on tourism activity,” said Tomáš Prouza, a former secretary for European affairs who now heads the Czech Confederation of Commerce and Tourism.
In Slovakia, the prime minister, Igor Matovič, has faced criticism from within his government for the continued lockdown. Richard Sulík, the economy minister and leader of the pro-business junior coalition partner in the government, complained on Facebook, “We don’t destroy our economy for the 800 people who die of flu every year”, and questioned why the country was doing so over the much lower numbers for coronavirus.
Matovič has promised to release a plan and timetable on Monday, but insisted that he would base it on the recommendations of epidemiologists, not economists.
Nič said: “As countries with much higher infection rates start to discuss gradual relaxations, the paradox is that in central Europe, where the numbers are lower, we’re likely to see a much more cautious exit from lockdown.”
Many countries in the region have imposed severe border restrictions and closed airports, and this may continue even after internal measures are relaxed.
The Czech prime minister, Andrej Babiš, said last week that reopening the country’s borders was not a priority. This suggests there is little realistic hope of respite for the country’s beleaguered tourism industry, which until the coronavirus crisis was preoccupied with mitigating the effects of an excess of foreign visitors to Prague. Babiš said the industry’s focus should now switch to domestic tourism.
Another part of the exit strategy is likely to involve masks. In both the Czech Republic and Slovakia, citizens have been obliged to wear masks for more than a month, with politicians leading by example. The newly elected Matovič gave one of his first press briefings in a mask in mid-March, and advised others to follow his lead. “Even a home-sewn mask made from old bedsheets or a T-shirt is much better than not wearing any,” he said. Television anchors have read the news in masks, and thousands of volunteers have sewn homemade masks to distribute for free.
Roman Prymula, the Czech deputy health minister and an epidemiologist, has warned that the face mask requirement is likely to remain in force throughout the warm summer months.
Other countries have since followed suit: Poland, where there is talk of a gradual easing out of lockdown measures in the coming weeks, made mask-wearing outdoors compulsory last week. Austria and some regions of Germany have also ordered the wearing of masks in public places.